prior_post
Priors in. Edge out.
A Bayesian handicapping workbench for US thoroughbred racing. Every race is scored by a speed-figure model that strips out the track variant, distance, pace, and connections; then a second model turns those figures into win probabilities you can compare to the board.
TODAY'S CARDS →
Four ways to read a card
Beginner
A $100 wager plan in plain English. We tell you which races to bet, which to skip, and why — no figures, no math.
EV-selective. Only suggests bets where the model shows a clear edge over the market; sizes via fractional Kelly.
Intermediate
Past performances for every runner, pace style, today's projected figure, and the model's probability. The handicapper's baseline view.
DRF-shaped PPs. Last 5 starts per horse with figure, finish, beaten lengths, odds; top-3 cheat sheet up top.
Expert
Full model internals: figure decomposition, projected-figure distribution chart, jockey/trainer contributions, jockey × trainer combos, confidence bands.
Why, not just what. See the ability + jockey + trainer + class split that makes up each projected figure, plus a ridgeline chart of the field.
Quant
Dense numeric table with α, σα, κJ, κT, MC %, MODEL %, edge, EV per $1, Kelly fraction. Card-level portfolio totals.
Everything as numbers. All the primitives that drive the other views, exposed side by side.
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