MODEL FACTORS
All values in figure points (1 point ≈ 1 length at a mile). Positive = faster. Negative = slower. Cyan = reference category.
JOCKEYS
How much each jockey adds or subtracts vs the average rider
Oisin Murphy +3.6
Flavien Prat +2.9
Joel Rosario +2.8
Irad Ortiz, Jr. +2.8
Rafael Bejarano +2.7
Jose Ortiz +2.5
Francisco Arrieta +2.5
Mike Smith +2.5
Mickael Barzalona +2.5
Javier Castellano +2.5
Yedsit Hazlewood +2.4
Walter Rodriguez +2.4
Juan Hernandez +2.4
John Velazquez +2.4
Ryusei Sakai +2.4
Paco Lopez +2.3
Ryan Moore +2.3
Lauralea Glaser +2.3
Jose Lezcano +2.3
Angel Castillo +2.3
Shane Foley +2.3
Samuel Marin +2.2
Diego Saenz +2.2
Dylan Davis +2.2
Elias Peltroche +2.1
TRAINERS
How much each trainer's barn adds or subtracts vs average
Aidan O'Brien +15.3
Charles Appleby +15.2
Francis - Henri Graffard +10.5
Bob Baffert +10.2
Andrew Balding +9.5
John Gosden +9.4
Roger Varian +8.6
Joseph O'Brien +8.1
Daisuke Takayanagi +8.1
Philip Bauer +8.1
Hideyuki Mori +7.8
Chad Brown +7.7
Simon Crisford +7.5
John Shirreffs +7.3
Brian House +7.2
Adrian Murray +7.1
Richard Mandella +7.0
Yoshito Yahagi +7.0
Brad Cox +6.9
Cherie DeVaux +6.6
Claude McGaughey III +6.6
Patrick Biancone +6.5
William Walden +6.5
Todd Pletcher +6.4
Paulo Lobo +6.4
TRACKS
Track speed ranked fastest to slowest
KEE REF
RACE CLASS
How class level affects expected speed
Allowance REF
SURFACE
Surface effect on speed
synthetic +0.7
turf +0.3
dirt REF
TRACK CONDITION
How going affects speed (dirt and turf labeled separately)
Fast / Firm (reference) +0.0
AGE
Age effect on speed (main effect only; age × sex interactions excluded)
4 +1.5
5 +1.3
6 +0.6
3 REF
7+ -0.7
unknown -2.3
2 -4.0
SEX
Sex effect on speed (male = reference; stripped from the displayed figure but used in the regression)
male REF
gelding -0.8
female -4.6
unknown -7.7
TIME BETWEEN RACES
Effect of layoff length on performance
short_0-2wk +0.3
normal (2-6wk) REF
fresh_6-13wk -0.2
layoff_3-6mo -0.8
layoff_6mo+ -1.1
debut -2.4
EQUIPMENT & MEDICATION
Lasix +1.8
Blinkers -0.8
Taken off turf +0.3