Del Mar 2026 — meet bias study
6 cards · 59 races · 523 starters through 2026-07-25.
A/E = actual wins ÷ odds-expected wins (1.0 = ran exactly to the tote). ROI = $2 flat win bets.
Pace: forward (1st/2nd at first call) vs off the pace
| course · trip | n | win% | A/E | ROI | n | win% | A/E | ROI |
|---|
| FORWARD | OFF THE PACE |
|---|
| dirt sprint | 48 | 22.9% | 1.42 | +121.5% | 165 | 7.9% | 0.8 | -52.2% |
| dirt mile | 14 | 21.4% | 1.56 | +168.6% | 48 | 8.3% | 0.79 | -53.3% |
| turf (main) sprint | 18 | 22.2% | 1.18 | +13.3% | 58 | 8.6% | 0.89 | -44.0% |
| turf (main) mile | 22 | 13.6% | 1.43 | -15.9% | 79 | 10.1% | 0.9 | -3.7% |
| turf (main) route 8.5f+ | 14 | 14.3% | 1.16 | -20.0% | 52 | 9.6% | 0.95 | -45.2% |
Winners' first-call position: dirt median 4 (22% led) · turf (main) median 4 (26% led)
Post positions
| course | n | win% | A/E | ROI | n | win% | A/E | ROI | n | win% | A/E | ROI |
|---|
| POSTS 1–3 | POSTS 4–7 | POSTS 8+ |
|---|
| dirt | 96 | 8.3% | 0.95 | -42.3% | 125 | 14.4% | 0.99 | -13.0% | 59 | 10.2% | 1.09 | +39.5% |
| turf (main) | 81 | 13.6% | 1.07 | -22.8% | 107 | 14.0% | 1.19 | -17.8% | 55 | 1.8% | 0.24 | -33.3% |
Jockeys
| rider | starts | wins | win% | A/E | ROI |
|---|
| Juan Hernandez | 37 | 8 | 21.6% | 1.24 | -10.3% |
| Emisael Jaramillo | 33 | 6 | 18.2% | 1.21 | +3.3% |
| Antonio Fresu | 39 | 6 | 15.4% | 1.03 | -8.2% |
| Umberto Rispoli | 29 | 6 | 20.7% | 0.98 | -27.6% |
| Kazushi Kimura | 32 | 5 | 15.6% | 1.48 | -5.9% |
| Hector Berrios | 20 | 4 | 20.0% | 1.4 | +40.0% |
| Armando Ayuso | 40 | 4 | 10.0% | 0.98 | +32.0% |
| Kyle Frey | 19 | 3 | 15.8% | 2.3 | +64.2% |
| Joel Rosario | 43 | 3 | 7.0% | 0.42 | -59.8% |
| Edgar Payeras | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 3.44 | +62.7% |
| Tyler Baze | 13 | 2 | 15.4% | 2.38 | +11.5% |
| Tiago Pereira | 20 | 2 | 10.0% | 1.23 | -43.5% |
dirt: Juan Hernandez 6W/18 (A/E 1.55) · Emisael Jaramillo 4W/20 (A/E 1.15) · Umberto Rispoli 3W/10 (A/E 1.33)
turf (main): Hector Berrios 4W/16 (A/E 1.86) · Antonio Fresu 4W/23 (A/E 1.12) · Kazushi Kimura 3W/15 (A/E 2.36)
sprints: Juan Hernandez 6W/16 (A/E 1.76) · Emisael Jaramillo 5W/20 (A/E 1.39) · Antonio Fresu 4W/18 (A/E 1.33)
mile+routes: Umberto Rispoli 4W/15 (A/E 1.12) · Joel Rosario 3W/21 (A/E 0.98) · Kyle Frey 2W/8 (A/E 4.14)
Trainers
| trainer | starts | wins | win% | A/E | ROI |
|---|
| Doug O'Neill | 29 | 7 | 24.1% | 1.43 | -4.1% |
| Philip D'Amato | 32 | 5 | 15.6% | 1.16 | -23.8% |
| Mark Glatt | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 1.83 | +55.7% |
| Michael McCarthy | 23 | 4 | 17.4% | 1.1 | -27.4% |
| George Papaprodromou | 25 | 3 | 12.0% | 0.82 | -24.0% |
| Antonio Garcia | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2.65 | +198.3% |
| Richard Mandella | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 2.64 | +55.6% |
| Brian Koriner | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 2.28 | +41.1% |
| Craig Lewis | 12 | 2 | 16.7% | 1.53 | -1.7% |
| Jeff Mullins | 11 | 2 | 18.2% | 1.34 | +40.9% |
| Bob Baffert | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 1.04 | -33.3% |
| John Sadler | 19 | 2 | 10.5% | 0.54 | +116.8% |
Owners
| owner | starts | wins | win% | A/E | ROI |
|---|
| Reddam Racing LLC | 10 | 3 | 30.0% | 1.35 | -19.0% |
| Gray Farms Inc. | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 4.06 | +292.5% |
| Nguyen, Calvin and Tran, Joey C. | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 4.02 | +67.5% |
| Paula S. Capestro | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1.67 | +925.0% |
| Giddyup JR LLC | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 1.31 | +37.5% |
| Richard Barton | 8 | 1 | 12.5% | 1.15 | -22.5% |
| Legacy Ranch, Inc. | 4 | 1 | 25.0% | 0.99 | +2.5% |
| Hronis Racing LLC | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | 0.9 | -25.0% |
| Les Blake | 5 | 1 | 20.0% | 0.84 | +38.0% |
| J K Racing Stable LLC | 5 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0 | -100.0% |
| Jethorse LLC | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0 | -100.0% |
| Nicholas B. Alexander | 4 | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0 | -100.0% |
Small-sample warning: early-meet cells run n=10–150; treat A/E under ~1.3 as lean, and expect course biases to drift as rails move and turf wears. Refreshed with every slate build.