Saratoga 2026 — meet bias study
19 cards · 199 races · 1659 starters through 2026-07-25 · includes the Belmont-at-Saratoga festival (6/3–6/7).
A/E = actual wins ÷ odds-expected wins (1.0 = ran exactly to the tote). ROI = $2 flat win bets.
Pace: forward (1st/2nd at first call) vs off the pace
| course · trip | n | win% | A/E | ROI | n | win% | A/E | ROI |
|---|
| FORWARD | OFF THE PACE |
|---|
| dirt sprint | 133 | 25.6% | 1.51 | +36.4% | 385 | 8.3% | 0.74 | -24.8% |
| dirt mile | 36 | 33.3% | 2.08 | +119.1% | 85 | 7.1% | 0.49 | -59.3% |
| dirt route 8.5f+ | 38 | 21.1% | 1.29 | -16.9% | 98 | 11.2% | 0.86 | -36.9% |
| inner turf mile | 32 | 21.9% | 1.6 | +36.5% | 113 | 8.8% | 0.86 | -60.1% |
| inner turf route 8.5f+ | 58 | 19.0% | 1.33 | +107.5% | 196 | 9.2% | 0.87 | -30.5% |
| turf (main) sprint | 60 | 15.0% | 0.98 | +7.1% | 222 | 9.5% | 1.01 | -10.3% |
| turf (main) route 8.5f+ | 40 | 20.0% | 1.59 | +1.2% | 155 | 7.7% | 0.8 | -38.3% |
Winners' first-call position: dirt median 2 (34% led) · inner turf median 3 (28% led) · turf (main) median 4 (10% led)
Post positions
| course | n | win% | A/E | ROI | n | win% | A/E | ROI | n | win% | A/E | ROI |
|---|
| POSTS 1–3 | POSTS 4–7 | POSTS 8+ |
|---|
| dirt | 309 | 18.4% | 1.29 | +6.6% | 367 | 10.6% | 0.82 | -21.8% | 99 | 7.1% | 0.64 | -38.1% |
| inner turf | 138 | 19.6% | 1.58 | +47.1% | 177 | 9.0% | 0.8 | -35.8% | 92 | 4.3% | 0.45 | -65.1% |
| turf (main) | 150 | 10.0% | 0.85 | -20.6% | 193 | 10.9% | 1.04 | -18.8% | 134 | 10.4% | 1.15 | -7.6% |
Jockeys
| rider | starts | wins | win% | A/E | ROI |
|---|
| Flavien Prat | 155 | 34 | 21.9% | 1.07 | -12.9% |
| Jose Ortiz | 135 | 26 | 19.3% | 1.12 | -6.1% |
| Manuel Franco | 162 | 26 | 16.0% | 1.07 | -3.1% |
| Irad Ortiz, Jr. | 98 | 22 | 22.4% | 1.15 | -1.9% |
| Ricardo Santana, Jr. | 121 | 14 | 11.6% | 1.04 | +13.0% |
| Tyler Gaffalione | 76 | 9 | 11.8% | 1.07 | +11.2% |
| Jaime Rodriguez | 102 | 9 | 8.8% | 1.05 | -31.3% |
| Junior Alvarado | 78 | 9 | 11.5% | 1.05 | +2.3% |
| John Velazquez | 96 | 9 | 9.4% | 0.65 | -54.1% |
| Dylan Davis | 106 | 7 | 6.6% | 0.71 | -60.9% |
| Kendrick Carmouche | 56 | 6 | 10.7% | 1.12 | -36.2% |
| Javier Castellano | 24 | 5 | 20.8% | 2.28 | +327.0% |
dirt: Manuel Franco 16W/77 (A/E 1.23) · Irad Ortiz, Jr. 14W/46 (A/E 1.36) · Flavien Prat 13W/70 (A/E 0.89)
inner turf: Flavien Prat 11W/43 (A/E 1.15) · Jose Ortiz 9W/32 (A/E 1.92) · Manuel Franco 5W/40 (A/E 0.94)
turf (main): Flavien Prat 10W/42 (A/E 1.3) · Tyler Gaffalione 7W/24 (A/E 3.13) · Irad Ortiz, Jr. 5W/27 (A/E 1.15)
sprints: Manuel Franco 14W/76 (A/E 1.26) · Flavien Prat 13W/72 (A/E 1.04) · Irad Ortiz, Jr. 10W/42 (A/E 1.2)
mile+routes: Flavien Prat 21W/83 (A/E 1.08) · Jose Ortiz 18W/74 (A/E 1.4) · Irad Ortiz, Jr. 12W/56 (A/E 1.11)
Trainers
| trainer | starts | wins | win% | A/E | ROI |
|---|
| Chad Brown | 105 | 18 | 17.1% | 0.85 | -25.0% |
| Mark Casse | 57 | 12 | 21.1% | 1.41 | +5.7% |
| Brad Cox | 46 | 12 | 26.1% | 1.4 | -6.6% |
| Horacio De Paz | 24 | 8 | 33.3% | 2.18 | +214.4% |
| Miguel Clement | 61 | 8 | 13.1% | 0.93 | -13.6% |
| Steven Asmussen | 30 | 7 | 23.3% | 1.32 | -21.3% |
| George Weaver | 39 | 7 | 17.9% | 1.17 | +71.0% |
| William Mott | 58 | 7 | 12.1% | 0.93 | +6.1% |
| Linda Rice | 61 | 7 | 11.5% | 0.78 | -31.3% |
| Ilkay Kantarmaci | 27 | 6 | 22.2% | 2.93 | +134.2% |
| Michael Maker | 37 | 5 | 13.5% | 0.88 | -28.2% |
| Joe Sharp | 26 | 4 | 15.4% | 0.98 | -50.7% |
Owners
| owner | starts | wins | win% | A/E | ROI |
|---|
| Klaravich Stables, Inc. | 33 | 9 | 27.3% | 1.28 | +12.8% |
| Lindy Farms | 6 | 3 | 50.0% | 3.49 | +234.2% |
| Gary Barber | 12 | 3 | 25.0% | 2.07 | +72.3% |
| D. J. Stable LLC | 8 | 3 | 37.5% | 1.79 | +17.8% |
| Juddmonte | 14 | 3 | 21.4% | 1.15 | -22.4% |
| DiRico Racing and Breeding LLC | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 4.95 | +451.0% |
| Club Sixty Five Racing | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 3.65 | +72.2% |
| Dubb, Michael, The Elkstone Group, LLC (Stuart Grant) and Titletown Racing Stables | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2.72 | +285.0% |
| Pin Oak Stud LLC | 6 | 2 | 33.3% | 2.7 | +147.2% |
| Roger Cimbora, Jr. | 4 | 2 | 50.0% | 2.56 | +113.5% |
| Dubb, Michael and The Elkstone Group LLC (Stuart Grant) | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | 1.12 | -31.0% |
| Spendthrift Farm LLC | 9 | 2 | 22.2% | 1.05 | -9.1% |
Small-sample warning: early-meet cells run n=10–150; treat A/E under ~1.3 as lean, and expect course biases to drift as rails move and turf wears. Refreshed with every slate build.