TRACKS · 2026-08-01
CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO
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R11 Arlington Million S. (Grade I)
CNL 2026-08-01 One And One Fourth Miles OUTER TURF $1000000 7 horses PACE FAST
Model's top 3
#1 PICK
6 Test Score ★ HIGH_CONF
34.7% win prob fair 9-5 M/L 9/2
#2 PICK
4 Integration
32.4% win prob fair 2-1 M/L 4/1
#3 PICK
8 Gran Oriente
13.7% win prob fair 6-1 M/L 10/1
Pace Projector HONEST PACE 1st¼ 22.4s par 22.4 EP/LP
ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 2 99/106 Layabout 1 98/85 Dresden Row 6 LP » 91/117 Test Score 5 » 94/99 Burnham Square 8 »» 92/104 Gran Oriente 4 LP 91/118 Integration 3 96/110 Fort Washington
6 Test Score ★ HIGH_CONF
4C 126 lbs Post 6 J: Manuel Franco T: H. Motion P
93.9
Proj Fig
34.7%
Model %
9-5
Fair
9/2
M/L
DATETRKDISTSURFCOND CLASS EP MP FIG LP POSBLODDSJOCKEY
2026-06-06 SAR 9.5f turf Firm Stakes_G1 91 nan 97.2 89 2.0/9 0.5 15.5 Manuel Franco
2026-05-02 CD 9.0f turf Firm Stakes_G1 91 83 91.2 81 8.0/9 16.5 4.72 Manuel Franco
2026-01-24 GP 9.0f turf Firm Stakes_G1 80 83 94.7 83 1.0/12 0.0 7.6 Manuel Franco
2025-11-29 DMR 9.0f turf Firm Stakes_G1 70 95 88.8 117 3.0/8 0.5 0.8 Juan Hernandez
2025-10-25 SA 9.0f turf Firm Stakes_G2 89 93 92.6 108 1.0/5 0.0 0.6 Juan Hernandez
4 Integration
6H 122 lbs Post 4 J: John Velazquez T: Claude McGaughey III P
97.2
Proj Fig
32.4%
Model %
2-1
Fair
4/1
M/L
DATETRKDISTSURFCOND CLASS EP MP FIG LP POSBLODDSJOCKEY
2026-06-06 SAR 9.5f turf Firm Stakes_G1 91 86 98.7 74 5.0/9 1.8 10.6 John Velazquez
2026-05-07 BAQ 9.5f turf Firm Alw_Opt_Clm 81 79 98.0 89 1.0/5 0.0 0.95 John Velazquez
2026-04-08 KEE 8.5f turf Firm Allowance 70 96 95.2 118 3.0/7 3.2 1.06 John Velazquez
2025-08-09 CNL 10.0f turf Firm Stakes_G1 83 84 96.0 97 3.0/7 1.2 0.6 John Velazquez
2025-06-08 SAR 9.0f turf Good Stakes_G1 85 96 98.9 99 2.0/8 0.1 4.1 John Velazquez
8 Gran Oriente
5H 122 lbs Post 8 J: Paco Lopez T: Saffie Joseph, Jr. S
96.1
Proj Fig
13.7%
Model %
6-1
Fair
10/1
M/L
DATETRKDISTSURFCOND CLASS EP MP FIG LP POSBLODDSJOCKEY
2026-07-04 GP 8.5f turf Firm Stakes_ungraded 74 81 95.5 94 1.0/8 0.0 1.6 Rasheed Hughes
2026-05-16 GP 8.5f turf Firm Stakes_ungraded 92 90 97.3 86 1.0/8 0.0 3.2 Rasheed Hughes
2026-04-03 SA 9.0f turf Firm Alw_Opt_Clm 90 93 95.6 70 1.0/6 0.0 30.6 Armando Ayuso
2026-03-14 SADH 6.5f turf Firm Stakes_G3 87 89 95.3 104 5.0/6 3.2 6.4 Armando Ayuso
2026-01-23 SADH 6.5f turf Firm Alw_Opt_Clm 92 84 94.6 79 1.0/4 0.0 8.9 Armando Ayuso
1 Dresden Row
5H 122 lbs Post 1 J: Tyler Gaffalione T: Todd Pletcher P
94.9
Proj Fig
7.2%
Model %
12-1
Fair
7/2
M/L
DATETRKDISTSURFCOND CLASS EP MP FIG LP POSBLODDSJOCKEY
2026-06-27 CD 8.5f turf Good Stakes_G2 98 83 93.3 48 3.0/9 1.2 3.55 Irad Ortiz, Jr.
2026-05-21 CD 8.5f turf Firm Alw_Opt_Clm 76 75 94.9 85 1.0/8 0.0 1.64 Irad Ortiz, Jr.
2026-04-08 KEE 8.5f turf Firm Allowance 78 82 95.4 82 1.0/7 0.0 2.29 Flavien Prat
2025-11-08 WO 9.0f synthetic Fast Stakes_G3 95 78 96.1 71 1.0/10 0.0 6.7 Ryan Munger
2025-10-19 WO 8.5f synthetic Fast Alw_Opt_Clm 94 77 95.6 56 3.0/4 12.0 0.25 Ryan Munger
5 Burnham Square
4G 124 lbs Post 5 J: Brian Hernandez, Jr. T: Ian Wilkes S
93.3
Proj Fig
7.2%
Model %
12-1
Fair
5/2
M/L
DATETRKDISTSURFCOND CLASS EP MP FIG LP POSBLODDSJOCKEY
2026-06-13 CD 11.0f turf Firm Stakes_ungraded 87 nan 94.8 76 1.0/8 0.0 0.12 Brian Hernandez, Jr.
2026-05-16 CD 12.0f turf Good Stakes_G3 94 78 91.7 nan 1.0/6 0.0 0.23 Brian Hernandez, Jr.
2026-04-18 KEE 12.0f turf Firm Stakes_G2 92 92 95.0 99 1.0/11 0.0 1.28 Brian Hernandez, Jr.
2026-02-28 GP 8.5f turf Firm Alw_Opt_Clm 84 88 94.4 69 2.0/12 2.2 3.2 Edgard Zayas
2025-08-30 KD 10.5f turf Firm Stakes_G3 — — 95.7 — 2.0/12 0.1 13.54 Brian Hernandez, Jr.
3 Fort Washington
7H 122 lbs Post 3 J: Javier Castellano T: Claude McGaughey III C
97.8
Proj Fig
2.8%
Model %
30-1
Fair
5/1
M/L
DATETRKDISTSURFCOND CLASS EP MP FIG LP POSBLODDSJOCKEY
2026-06-27 CD 8.5f turf Good Stakes_G2 86 102 95.0 91 7.0/9 4.8 10.09 Junior Alvarado
2026-05-16 LRL 9.0f turf Firm Stakes_G3 73 91 97.9 110 1.0/5 0.0 2.9 Junior Alvarado
2026-02-28 GP 8.5f turf Firm Stakes_G3 95 89 98.1 102 4.0/8 4.0 5.4 Junior Alvarado
2026-01-24 GP 9.0f turf Firm Stakes_G1 52 78 97.4 64 6.0/12 2.5 13.2 Junior Alvarado
2025-08-09 CNL 10.0f turf Firm Stakes_G1 96 94 97.6 94 1.0/7 0.0 5.7 Junior Alvarado
2 Layabout
4G 122 lbs Post 2 J: Keith Asmussen T: Patrick Biancone P
89.6
Proj Fig
2.0%
Model %
50-1
Fair
20/1
M/L
DATETRKDISTSURFCOND CLASS EP MP FIG LP POSBLODDSJOCKEY
2026-07-04 GP 8.5f turf Firm Stakes_ungraded 74 101 87.8 106 7.0/8 10.0 3.0 Keith Asmussen
2026-02-28 GP 11.0f turf Firm Stakes_G2 95 84 89.3 53 4.0/9 1.2 1.8 David Egan
2026-01-24 GP 12.0f turf Firm Stakes_G3 99 91 93.1 76 1.0/12 0.0 6.0 David Egan
2025-12-13 GP 8.5f turf Firm Stakes_ungraded 85 85 91.7 97 1.0/10 0.0 2.7 Junior Alvarado
2025-11-01 GP 8.5f turf Firm Stakes_ungraded 68 89 93.5 71 2.0/11 0.5 3.3 Jonathan Ocasio