SAR 2026-08-01 — Intermediate

TRACKS · 2026-08-01

CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO

R1 One And T R2 Six Furl D R3 One Mile D R4 Six Furl D R5 Six Furl D R6 Six And D R7 One And D R8 Five And T R9 One And T R10 One And D R11 Five And T R12 One And T

Model's top 3

#1 PICK

1 Sassmaster ★ HIGH_CONF

66.9% win prob fair 1-2 M/L 3/1

#2 PICK

3 Thunderously

14.4% win prob fair 6-1 M/L 6/1

#3 PICK

4 Universe

8.5% win prob fair 10-1 M/L 8/1

Pace Projector SPEED DUEL closers favored 1st¼ 23.7s par 24.1 EP/LP

ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 2 ⚡ 96/98 Hop Sing 8 LP ⚡ »» 102/101 Iron Dome 1 LP 94/103 Sassmaster 6 » 99/97 Expect the Best 3 77/72 Thunderously 4 LP 88/103 Universe 5 » 97/95 Statesman

On the lead: 2, 8 · race sets up for closers

1 Sassmaster ★ HIGH_CONF

3C L 121 lbs Post 1 J: Flavien Prat T: Todd Pletcher P

100.3

Proj Fig

66.9%

Model %

1-2

Fair

3/1

M/L

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	CLASS	EP	MP	FIG	LP	POS	BL	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-27	CD	8.5f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	MSW_3yo	80	85	99.3	91	1.0/10	0.0	9.41	Flavien Prat
2025-08-09	SAR	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW_2yo	94	92	98.7	103	4.0/8	7.2	3.0	Irad Ortiz, Jr.

3 Thunderously

3C L 121 lbs Post 3 J: Junior Alvarado T: William Mott

93.8

Proj Fig

14.4%

Model %

6-1

Fair

6/1

M/L

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	CLASS	EP	MP	FIG	LP	POS	BL	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-01-10	GP	8.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW_3yo	77	nan	96.2	72	1.0/9	0.0	3.8	Junior Alvarado

4 Universe

3G L 1 121 lbs Post 4 J: Jose Ortiz T: Kenneth McPeek P

96.9

Proj Fig

8.5%

Model %

10-1

Fair

8/1

M/L

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	CLASS	EP	MP	FIG	LP	POS	BL	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-03-21	FG	9.5f	dirt	Fast	Stakes_G2	85	91	96.3	64	4.0/9	6.5	17.4	Brian Hernandez, Jr.
2026-02-14	FG	9.0f	dirt	Fast	Stakes_G2	88	89	97.7	82	4.0/8	7.8	12.6	Christopher Elliott
2026-01-03	OP	8.5f	dirt	Fast	Stakes_ungraded	70	78	93.3	103	7.0/8	11.2	2.3	Joel Rosario
2025-11-29	CD	8.5f	dirt	Fast	Stakes_G2	80	94	96.0	86	2.0/7	1.8	12.39	Brian Hernandez, Jr.
2025-10-26	CD	8.5f	dirt	Fast	Stakes_G3	86	94	96.7	79	2.0/6	1.8	1.42	Jose Ortiz

8 Iron Dome

4C L 126 lbs Post 8 J: Luis Saez T: Steven Asmussen P

96.6

Proj Fig

4.6%

Model %

20-1

Fair

7/2

M/L

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	CLASS	EP	MP	FIG	LP	POS	BL	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-19	SAR	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Allowance	—	—	98.0	—	2.0/5	4.0	1.47	Luis Saez
2026-04-25	OP	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Allowance	85	90	95.6	85	2.0/7	2.0	2.7	Erik Asmussen
2025-10-25	BAQ	9.0f	dirt	Fast	Stakes_ungraded	102	nan	91.7	58	6.0/6	5.5	1.9	Ricardo Santana, Jr.
2025-09-28	RP	9.0f	dirt	Fast	Stakes_G3	75	78	97.2	101	2.0/6	3.2	4.3	Jose Ortiz
2025-08-21	SAR	9.0f	dirt	Fast	Stakes_ungraded	80	85	94.9	96	1.0/5	0.0	0.3	Jose Ortiz

2 Hop Sing

5G L 126 lbs Post 2 J: Kendrick Carmouche T: Chad Summers EP

93.1

Proj Fig

2.2%

Model %

50-1

Fair

6/1

M/L

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	CLASS	EP	MP	FIG	LP	POS	BL	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-05-29	GP	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw_Opt_Clm	90	85	91.8	85	5.0/5	7.5	1.7	Edgard Zayas
2025-11-16	CD	9.0f	dirt	Fast	Allowance	93	79	95.0	84	4.0/8	7.8	2.84	Luan Machado
2025-09-25	CD	8.5f	dirt	Fast	Allowance	92	95	95.0	98	2.0/9	0.8	2.22	Luis Saez
2025-08-10	SAR	9.0f	dirt	Fast	Allowance	96	nan	100.1	94	2.0/8	0.1	4.1	Jose Ortiz
2025-06-29	BAQ	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Allowance	88	89	96.2	94	3.0/5	5.0	1.55	Ricardo Santana, Jr.

6 Expect the Best

4G L 126 lbs Post 6 J: Ricardo Santana, Jr. T: Ron Moquett P

95.1

Proj Fig

1.8%

Model %

50-1

Fair

15/1

M/L

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	CLASS	EP	MP	FIG	LP	POS	BL	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-25	CD	8.5f	dirt	Fast	Starter_Alw	86	nan	93.7	83	2.0/9	1.5	8.05	Ben Curtis
2026-05-01	OP	8.5f	dirt	Fast	Alw_Opt_Clm	82	68	96.2	92	2.0/7	0.5	0.9	Rafael Bejarano
2026-04-11	OP	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw_Opt_Clm	99	73	96.7	27	2.0/10	0.1	2.1	Rafael Bejarano
2026-03-06	OP	8.5f	dirt	Fast	Starter_Alw	87	93	96.3	97	1.0/7	0.0	1.5	Rafael Bejarano
2026-02-16	OP	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Allowance	82	92	96.2	79	3.0/9	1.5	7.6	Cristian Torres

5 Statesman

4C L 126 lbs Post 5 J: Edgard Zayas T: Claude McGaughey III S

95.1

Proj Fig

1.5%

Model %

50-1

Fair

10/1

M/L

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	CLASS	EP	MP	FIG	LP	POS	BL	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-05-15	LRL	8.5f	dirt	Fast	Alw_Opt_Clm	94	68	95.2	33	5.0/6	10.2	1.9	John Velazquez
2026-03-14	GP	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw_Opt_Clm	86	88	95.2	83	3.0/6	3.5	4.2	Joel Rosario
2026-02-15	GP	8.5f	dirt	Fast	Alw_Opt_Clm	97	nan	96.7	82	3.0/7	0.8	4.7	John Velazquez
2026-01-17	GP	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw_Opt_Clm	86	91	96.0	79	3.0/6	1.2	8.5	John Velazquez
2025-04-05	AQU	9.0f	dirt	Fast	Stakes_G2	87	83	93.7	95	8.0/10	20.5	13.5	Samuel Marin