CT 2026-08-01 · US Racing

TRACKS · 2026-08-01

CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO

▸ How to read a horse block

MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σ_α. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.

R1 D R2 D R3 D R4 D R5 D R6 D R7 D R8 D

Purse $32,900. Four And One Half Furlongs. For Accredited West Virginia-Bred Maidens, Fillies And Mares Three, Four, Five, And Six Years Old. Three Year Olds, 121 Lbs.; Older, 126 Lbs.

TODAY'S CONTENDERS		WIN% · FAIR / ML	QIK%	STY	P1C	CLASS	PROJ	COND	LAST	SUS	J×T
1	Lil Pegasus	1% 99-1 / 5/1	8.3%		2nd/1w	—	79⁴-2	—	—	—		15%	3∠
2	Kaylee's Fireball	1% 99-1 / 15/1	3.4%	S	3rd/1w	76 -6.4	71⁷-10	71⁵	67⁵	84⁴	L1J-0.8	0%	⚠-2.01∠
3	Stella's Candy	17% 5-1 / 8/1	12.0%	P	6th/1w	78 -4.3	85¹+4	83¹	78²	—	KEY	—
4	Maybeitwas Memphis	2% 50-1 / 9/5	17.5%		1st/1w	—	84³+3	—	—	—		33%	3∠
5	Runaway Gold	3% 30-1 / 15/1	4.1%	P	4th/2w	77 -5.2	73⁶-8	74³	68⁴	86³	KEY	0%	1∠
6	Candygram Cat	13% 7-1 / 9/2	13.9%	P	5th/2w	80 -2.7	76⁵-5	74³	73³	91²	▼cls	8%	⚠-2.21∠
7	Captured in Time	63% 3-5 / 2/1	40.8%	S	7th/3w	79 -3.0	85¹+4	82²	80¹	94¹	J-0.7	40%	✓+2.3★PRIME

Pace Projector HONEST PACE 1st¼ 22.4s par 22.4 EP/LP

ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 4 Maybeitwas Memphis 1 Lil Pegasus 2 96/100 Kaylee's Fireball 5 » 98/101 Runaway Gold 6 » 107/98 Candygram Cat 3 104/92 Stella's Candy 7 C★ »» 97/112 Captured in Time

7 Captured in Time ★ PRIME THIN DATA

3F 121 lbs L S

62.9%

MODEL %

3-5

MODEL FAIR

+29.6

EDGE vs ML

2/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig85 +4 vs par

Needs fits levelbase 81 vs par 81

Class79.3 -3.0 vs race +5.7 gap

MC26.0% fair 3-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.29

Faced78.9 +0.9 vs today

Pace EP84.9 best 97.1

Pace LP85.0 best 112.1

Energy0.51

Connections

JockAngel Cruzκ 0.07was Moises Santaella · -0.7

TrnMichelle Wilsonκ 0.09

J×T15 · 40% win · 73% ITM

Record

	Sts	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	3	2	0%	82.1
2026	3	2	0%	82.1
2025	0	0	—	—
CT	3	2	0%	82.1
Dirt	3	2	0%	82.1
Sprint	3	2	0%	82.1
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 05-01 CT 4 Furlongs :48.40 B G 62 04-18 CT 4 Furlongs :51.40 B G 35 ★04-01 CT 4 Furlongs :48.00 B 71 03-14 CT 3 Furlongs :38.40 B 27

SIREGolden Years 82 60%ile turf 9%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-11 12d	CT	6.5f	dirt	Good	MSW	80	5	8	16.8	S	96	nan	92	80	68	84	0.9	Moises Santaella
2026-05-30 23d	CT	4.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	80	2	10	2.0	S	77	93	112	82	68	84	5.8	Angel Cruz
2026-05-07	CT	4.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	78	2	10	1.5	S	97	87	66	82	64	80	1.2	Christian Maldonado

3 Stella's Candy

5M 126 lbs L P

17.0%

MODEL %

5-1

MODEL FAIR

+5.9

EDGE vs ML

8/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig85 +4 vs par

Needs +2~30% run that

Class78.0 -4.3 vs race +6.6 gap

MC42.2% fair 7-5

ConfTIGHT σα 0.22

Faced79.7 +1.7 vs today

Pace EP83.9 best 104.2

Pace LP81.7 best 91.9

Energy0.52

Connections

JockV Rodriguezκ 0.0was Victor Rodriguez · -0.1

TrnTonya O'Neillκ -0.03

Record

	Sts	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	12	2	4	0%	84.1
2026	9	2	2	0%	84.1
2025	3	0	2	0%	81.8
CT	12	2	4	0%	84.1
Dirt	12	2	4	0%	84.1
Sprint	12	2	4	0%	84.1
Wet	2	1	0	0%	84.1

WORKS 04-29 CT 3 Furlongs :38.20 B 29

SIRECandygram 81 53%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-11 30d	CT	4.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	79	4	6	9.5	F	nan	nan	82	78	67	78	7.6	Victor Rodriguez
2026-06-11 12d	CT	6.5f	dirt	Good	MSW	80	7	8	20.5	S	91	nan	84	79	64	80	3.4	Victor Rodriguez
2026-05-30 21d	CT	4.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	80	4	10	4.5	S	104	102	92	80	64	79	13.4	Victor Rodriguez
2026-05-09 44d·2.1×	CT	4.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	80	3	8	7.5		78	76	74	83	70	79	8.2	Victor Rodriguez
2026-03-26 19d	CT	4.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	80	4	7	18.0	F	74	90	81	82	68	81	4.7	Julio Jorge
2026-03-07 10d	CT	4.5f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	MSW	80	2	8	0.8	F	72	93	94	84	69	80	8.0	Julio Jorge
2026-02-25 33d	CT	6.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	80	3	6	10.8	S	80	72	73	82	70	81	4.5	Victor Rodriguez
2026-01-23 20d	CT	4.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	80	2	10	1.8	S	80	89	85	83	61	79	8.2	Victor Rodriguez
2026-01-03 29d	CT	4.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	80	4	8	7.8		81	96	82	81	62	79	3.0	Victor Rodriguez
2025-12-05	CT	6.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	78	3	10	2.5		79	77	nan	82	70	76	8.2	Victor Rodriguez

6 Candygram Cat

3F 121 lbs L P

13.2%

MODEL %

7-1

MODEL FAIR

-5.0

EDGE vs ML

9/2

M/L

Form

Proj Fig76 -5 vs par

Needs +9~2% run that

Class79.6 -2.7 vs race -3.2 gap

MC3.7% fair 25-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.24

Faced78.3 +0.3 vs today

Pace EP87.6 best 107.2

Pace LP83.6 best 97.6

Energy0.53

Connections

JockChristian Hiraldoκ 0.07

TrnCurtis Bassκ 0.01

J×T24 · 8% win · 38% ITM

Angles

Christian Hiraldo / Curtis Bass 17% +39%

Record

	Sts	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	7	2	2	0%	77.4
2026	7	2	2	0%	77.4
2025	0	0	0	—	—
CT	7	2	2	0%	77.4
Dirt	7	2	2	0%	77.4
Sprint	7	2	2	0%	77.4
Wet	1	0	1	0%	74.5

WORKS 05-02 CT 3 Furlongs :36.80 B G 45

SIRECandygram 81 53%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-11 21d	CT	4.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	80	5	8	2.2	F	85	89	98	73	61	78	8.9	Christian Hiraldo
2026-06-20 21d	CT	4.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	77	2	6	13.5	F	91	nan	75	71	64	79	2.6	Warren Ebow III
2026-05-30 23d	CT	4.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	80	5	10	7.5	S	107	94	87	72	60	79	19.9	Warren Ebow III
2026-05-07 49d·2.1×	CT	4.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	78	3	10	2.2	S	95	83	79	74	63	76	3.1	Warren Ebow III
2026-03-19 15d	CT	7.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	77	6	6	25.8	S	83	80	91	68	48	80	7.1	Christian Hiraldo
2026-03-04 28d	CT	4.5f	dirt	Muddy (Sealed)	MSW	77	3	6	5.2		88	90	96	74	57	77	1.4	Christian Hiraldo
2026-02-04	CT	4.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	80	2	10	10.5	S	81	95	91	77	63	80	19.1	Christian Hiraldo

5 Runaway Gold

4F 126 lbs L P

3.0%

MODEL %

30-1

MODEL FAIR

-3.2

EDGE vs ML

15/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig73 -8 vs par

Needs +11~<1% run that

Class77.1 -5.2 vs race -3.7 gap

MC3.1% fair 30-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.23

Faced78.2 +0.2 vs today

Pace EP86.0 best 98.4

Pace LP82.0 best 101.3

Energy0.53

Connections

JockMaximo Chiloκ 0.09was Jose Montano · +0.3

TrnJoseph Stehrκ -0.16

J×T33 · 0% win · 15% ITM

Angles

Maximo Chilo / Joseph Stehr 0% -100%

Record

	Sts	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	21	2	3	0%	74.7
2026	8	1	1	0%	74.4
2025	11	1	2	0%	74.2
CT	21	2	3	0%	74.7
Dirt	21	2	3	0%	74.7
Sprint	21	2	3	0%	74.7
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

SIRESaratoga Syndicate 76 4%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-11 22d	CT	4.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	79	5	6	12.2	F	98	82	73	68	62	77	20.6	Jose Montano
2026-06-19 21d	CT	4.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	77	3	6	3.2		86	77	74	72	61	77	7.4	Jose Montano
2026-05-29 21d	CT	4.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	77	7	10	4.5		92	83	83	69	56	76	17.1	Maximo Chilo
2026-05-08 20d	CT	4.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	77	2	8	1.0		88	82	85	74	63	75	17.7	Jose Montano
2026-04-18 23d	CT	4.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	80	6	7	18.8		84	88	101	70	62	75	64.3	Jose Montano
2026-03-26 27d	CT	4.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	80	6	7	21.0	F	80	88	104	72	63	76	65.4	Maximo Chilo
2026-02-27 36d	CT	4.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	77	5	7	12.5		90	79	85	68	50	77	16.0	Maximo Chilo
2026-01-22 64d·2.9×	CT	4.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	77	5	8	9.0	S	88	79	86	72	56	78	7.7	Maximo Chilo
2025-11-19 13d	CT	4.5f	dirt	Good	Mdn Clm	77	3	6	2.8		95	87	79	74	63	77	3.4	Andre Ramgeet
2025-11-06	CT	4.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	76	8	10	6.0		94	86	83	72	59	76	24.5	Maximo Chilo

4 Maybeitwas Memphis

3F 121 lbs L

1.7%

MODEL %

50-1

MODEL FAIR

-34.0

EDGE vs ML

9/5

M/L

Form

Proj Fig84 +3 vs par

MC17.9% fair 9-2

ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285

⚠ No history — ML-anchored

Connections

JockArnaldo Bocachicaκ 0.16

TrnJeff Runcoκ 0.21

J×T340 · 33% win · 64% ITM

Angles

Arnaldo Bocachica / Jeff Runco 32% -13% Jeff Runco: debut 25% -36% Debut 11% -25%

Record

	Win%	Fig
Life	—	—
2026	—	—
2025	—	—
CT	—	—
Dirt	—	—
Sprint	—	—
Wet	—	—

WORKS 07-23 CT 4 Furlongs :49.80 B G 51 07-11 CT 4 Furlongs :48.60 B G 64 07-01 CT 4 Furlongs :50.20 B 45 06-20 CT 4 Furlongs :49.80 B 45 06-13 CT 3 Furlongs :37.20 B 35 06-06 CT 3 Furlongs :37.00 B 39

SIRECandygram 81 53%ile 1st-out 9% (32)

No prior races in database

1 Lil Pegasus

3F 121 lbs

1.1%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-15.6

EDGE vs ML

5/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig79 -2 vs par

MC5.6% fair 15-1

ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285

⚠ No history — ML-anchored

Connections

JockFredy Peltrocheκ 0.1

TrnTimothy Collinsκ -0.23

J×T41 · 15% win · 41% ITM

Angles

Fredy Peltroche / Timothy Collins 14% -3% Debut 11% -25% Timothy Collins: debut 7% -75%

Record

	Win%	Fig
Life	—	—
2026	—	—
2025	—	—
CT	—	—
Dirt	—	—
Sprint	—	—
Wet	—	—

WORKS ★07-24 CT 4 Furlongs :49.60 B G 57 05-13 CT 4 Furlongs :53.00 B 25 05-06 CT 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 53

SIREMosler 82 68%ile 1st-out 18% (103) turf 12%

No prior races in database

2 Kaylee's Fireball

4F 126 lbs L S

1.1%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-5.2

EDGE vs ML

15/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig71 -10 vs par

Needs +12~<1% run that

Class75.9 -6.4 vs race -4.8 gap

MC1.6% fair 50-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.33

Faced77.6 -0.4 vs today

Pace EP80.5 best 95.9

Pace LP89.0 best 100.2

Energy0.52

Connections

JockSunday Diaz, Jr.κ -0.01was Justin Lewis · -0.8

TrnFrederick Clatterbuckκ -0.01

J×T3 · 0% win · 33% ITM

Angles

1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26%

Record

	Sts	Win%	Fig
Life	10	0%	71.0
2026	0	—	—
2025	10	0%	71.0
CT	10	0%	71.0
Dirt	10	0%	71.0
Sprint	10	0%	71.0
Wet	1	0%	66.9

WORKS 07-18 CT 4 Furlongs :49.80 B G 50 07-11 CT 3 Furlongs :36.80 B 42

SIRECandygram 81 53%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2025-12-05 29d	CT	6.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	78	10	10	18.0		81	89	86	67	53	77	46.2	Justin Lewis
2025-11-06 20d	CT	4.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	76	6	10	4.5		83	65	89	71	62	76	76.1	Justin Lewis
2025-10-17 20d	CT	4.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	75	6	7	3.2	S	96	89	100	70	54	73	23.0	Victor Lara
2025-09-27 14d	CT	4.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	80	6	9	11.8	F	70	93	97	70	66	73	55.9	Victor Lara
2025-09-13 183d·9.2×	CT	6.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	79	8	10	29.8	S	74	97	100	67	55	73	88.6	Victor Lara
2025-03-14 15d	CT	6.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	77	10	10	46.5	S	78	nan	81	58	38	72	81.5	Juan Nunez
2025-02-27 19d	CT	4.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	79	8	8	23.5	F	102	92	91	64	42	73	57.4	Angel Stanley
2025-02-08 8d	CT	4.5f	dirt	Good	MSW	77	6	7	12.8		68	92	72	66	54	71	43.3	Christian Maldonado
2025-01-31 21d	CT	4.5f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	MSW	79	8	9	17.0		74	80	87	67	52	71	27.3	Anthony Radcliffe
2025-01-10	CT	4.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	79	10	10	20.5	F	75	nan	84	66	42	79	41.5	Anthony Radcliffe