TRACKS · 2026-08-01
CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO
ALL CARDS ↗
▸ How to read a horse block
MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σα. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.
R1 D R2 D R3 D R4 D R5 D R6 D R7 D R8 D
R6 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
CT 2026-08-01 Four And One Half Furlongs DIRT
78
strength
-4.2 soft
79
win par
fig to beat
SPEED DUEL
shape
closers favored
FAST
early pace
1st¼ 21.9s / par 22.4
TOP-HEAVY
field
figs 69.7–81.7
Purse $32,900. Four And One Half Furlongs. For Accredited West Virginia-Bred Maidens, Fillies And Mares Three, Four, Five, And Six Years Old. Three Year Olds, 121 Lbs.; Older, 126 Lbs.
TODAY'S CONTENDERS WIN% · FAIR / ML QIK% STY P1C CLASS PROJ COND LAST SUS J×T
1 Aspen's Angel 1% 99-1 / 5/2 13.8% 6th/1w — 813+2 — — — — 2∠
2 Contra Costa 26% 3-1 / 7/5 30.2% 4th/1w 84 +1.3 821+3 781 781 883 J-0.8▼cls 12% 1∠
3 Angels Are Bowling 1% 99-1 / 10/1 4.6% 5th/1w — 821+3 — — — — 1∠
4 Private Express 4% 20-1 / 8/1 7.0% EP 2nd/2w 76 -6.1 776-2 743 714 645 17% 1∠
5 Arrayaofgrace 10% 8-1 / 5/1 12.1% EP 1st/3w 78 -4.2 707-9 705 705 892 ▼cls 7% ⚠-2.21∠
6 Gift of the Magi 19% 4-1 / 20/1 10.0% C 7th/2w 73 -9.4 785-1 743 743 874 L1 0% ⚠-1.6LS2∠
7 She's Rambo 38% 8-5 / 6/1 22.2% 3rd/3w 83 +0.5 804+1 762 762 911 ▼cls 20% ★PRIME2∠
Pace Projector SPEED DUEL closers favored 1st¼ 21.9s par 22.4 EP/LP
ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 5 ⚡ »» 102/100 Arrayaofgrace 4 » 91/90 Private Express 7 »» 88/95 She's Rambo 2 80/96 Contra Costa 3 Angels Are Bowling 1 Aspen's Angel 6 C★ » 82/104 Gift of the Magi
On the lead: 5, 4 · race sets up for closers
7 She's Rambo ★ PRIME THIN DATA
3F 121 lbs L
38.5%
MODEL %
8-5
MODEL FAIR
+24.2
EDGE vs ML
6/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig80 +1 vs par
Needs +3~25% run that
Class82.8 +0.5 vs race -2.5 gap
MC17.8% fair 9-2
ConfNORMAL σα 0.42
Faced80.2 +2.1 vs today
Pace EP82.0 best 87.9
Pace LP83.7 best 94.9
Energy0.51
Connections
JockChristian Hiraldoκ 0.07was Christian Maldonado · +0.2
TrnJean Adornoκ 0.04
J×T15 · 20% win · 33% ITM
Angles
Christian Hiraldo / Jean Adorno 15% -44% 2nd career start 13% -28%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 10000%75.7
2026 10000%75.7
2025 0000——
CT 10000%75.7
Dirt 10000%75.7
Sprint 10000%75.7
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-24 CT 3 Furlongs :38.60 B 28 07-04 CT 4 Furlongs :48.80 B G 55 ★06-26 CT 3 Furlongs :35.60 B 51 06-20 CT 3 Furlongs :36.20 B 43
SIRECandygram 81 53%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-11 CT 4.5f dirt Fast MSW 80 7 8 3.8 F 88 82 95 76 59 80 4.1 Christian Maldonado
2 Contra Costa THIN DATA
3F 114 lbs L
25.9%
MODEL %
3-1
MODEL FAIR
-15.8
EDGE vs ML
7/5
M/L
Form
Proj Fig82 +3 vs par
Needs +1~40% run that
Class83.6 +1.3 vs race -1.9 gap
MC28.9% fair 5-2
ConfNORMAL σα 0.41
Faced80.2 +2.1 vs today
Pace EP80.1 best 80.4
Pace LP84.1 best 96.3
Energy0.49
Connections
JockJahnxander Raspaldoκ 0.08was Arnaldo Bocachica · -0.8
TrnJeff Runcoκ 0.21
J×T16 · 12% win · 81% ITM
Angles
2nd career start 13% -28%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 10000%77.7
2026 10000%77.7
2025 0000——
CT 10000%77.7
Dirt 10000%77.7
Sprint 10000%77.7
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-01 CT 4 Furlongs :48.20 B G 65 06-16 CT 4 Furlongs :47.80 B G 71 03-27 TP 5 Furlongs 1:00.80 B 71 03-19 TP 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 60 03-13 TP 4 Furlongs :49.80 B 50
SIREAstern (Aus) 82 66%ile turf 16%
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-11 CT 4.5f dirt Fast MSW 80 6 8 2.8 F 80 84 96 78 60 80 1.6 Arnaldo Bocachica
6 Gift of the Magi LONGSHOT THIN DATA
4F 126 lbs L C
19.4%
MODEL %
4-1
MODEL FAIR
+14.6
EDGE vs ML
20/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig78 -1 vs par
Needs +5~15% run that
Class72.9 -9.4 vs race +5.0 gap
MC12.4% fair 7-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.33
Faced78.8 +0.7 vs today
Pace EP79.4 best 82.3
Pace LP87.4 best 104.4
Energy0.51
Connections
JockAnthony Mawingκ 0.03
TrnTina Malgarini-Mawingκ -0.09
J×T30 · 0% win · 3% ITM
Angles
1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% Anthony Mawing / Tina Malgarini-Mawing 3% -18%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 20000%73.8
2026 0000——
2025 20000%73.8
CT 20000%73.8
Dirt 20000%73.8
Sprint 20000%73.8
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-25 CT 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 60 07-18 CT 3 Furlongs :35.80 B 51 07-11 CT 4 Furlongs :50.20 B 48 07-02 CT 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 55 06-20 CT 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 44 06-13 CT 3 Furlongs :36.00 B 47
SIREJuba 81 45%ile turf 13%
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2025-12-05 69d CT 6.5f dirt Fast MSW 78 9 10 15.8 82 98 92 74 55 73 57.3 Anthony Mawing
2025-09-27 CT 4.5f dirt Fast MSW 80 8 9 15.5 F 74 nan 104 74 60 80 49.9 Anthony Mawing
5 Arrayaofgrace
3F 121 lbs L EP
10.5%
MODEL %
8-1
MODEL FAIR
-6.2
EDGE vs ML
5/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig70 -9 vs par
Needs +12~<1% run that
Class78.1 -4.2 vs race -8.4 gap
MC1.0% fair 99-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.23
Faced78.6 +0.5 vs today
Pace EP86.8 best 101.7
Pace LP83.1 best 99.6
Energy0.54
Connections
JockJavier Riveraκ -0.12
TrnKeturah Obed-Lettsκ -0.18
J×T107 · 7% win · 22% ITM
Angles
Javier Rivera / Keturah Obed-Letts 8% -30%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 70110%70.1
2026 70110%70.1
2025 0000——
CT 70110%70.1
Dirt 70110%70.1
Sprint 70110%70.1
Wet 0000——
WORKS 04-09 CT 4 Furlongs :52.40 B 28 04-01 CT 3 Furlongs :38.80 B 25
SIREDenis Of Cork 79 21%ile turf 18%
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-11 21d CT 4.5f dirt Fast MSW 80 2 8 0.8 F 86 94 92 70 64 76 42.0 Javier Rivera
2026-06-20 8d CT 4.5f dirt Fast MSW 77 3 6 16.0 F 102 nan 67 66 60 77 20.6 Javier Rivera
2026-06-12 13d CT 4.5f dirt Fast MSW 78 5 10 8.0 F 89 90 87 65 51 76 27.9 Javier Rivera
2026-05-30 23d CT 4.5f dirt Fast MSW 80 7 10 10.0 S 90 nan 80 67 56 75 71.3 Javier Rivera
2026-05-07 21d CT 4.5f dirt Fast MSW 78 8 10 7.2 S 89 90 100 68 55 72 23.6 Javier Rivera
2026-04-16 71d·3.4× CT 4.5f dirt Fast MSW 80 7 7 20.2 78 86 90 60 37 72 38.0 Javier Rivera
2026-02-04 CT 4.5f dirt Fast MSW 80 9 10 21.8 S 91 88 95 66 46 80 29.5 Javier Rivera
4 Private Express THIN DATA
3F 121 lbs L EP
4.3%
MODEL %
20-1
MODEL FAIR
-6.8
EDGE vs ML
8/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig77 -2 vs par
Needs +7~8% run that
Class76.2 -6.1 vs race +0.8 gap
MC8.2% fair 12-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.27
Faced78.9 +0.8 vs today
Pace EP78.2 best 91.3
Pace LP79.9 best 89.5
Energy0.53
Connections
JockMaximo Chiloκ 0.09
TrnMichael Sandovalκ 0.11
J×T30 · 17% win · 43% ITM
Angles
Maximo Chilo / Michael Sandoval 22% +157%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 30000%73.6
2026 30000%73.6
2025 0000——
CT 30000%73.6
Dirt 30000%73.6
Sprint 30000%73.6
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-11 CT 4 Furlongs :48.60 B 62 06-19 CT 4 Furlongs :51.20 B 33 05-29 CT 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 58 ★04-29 CT 3 Furlongs :35.00 B G 60 ◆Cherokee Cat 04-01 CT 4 Furlongs :48.20 B G 69 ★03-23 CT 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 60 ◆Cherokee Cat
SIREBullsbay 79 29%ile turf 4%
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-26 50d CT 7.0f dirt Fast MSW 79 6 8 24.8 65 94 63 71 59 79 47.2 Maximo Chilo
2026-05-07 21d CT 4.5f dirt Fast MSW 78 7 10 6.5 S 91 nan 86 74 57 77 9.7 Fredy Peltroche
2026-04-16 CT 4.5f dirt Fast MSW 80 6 7 11.0 73 87 90 73 49 80 4.6 Fredy Peltroche
3 Angels Are Bowling
3F 121 lbs
0.7%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-8.4
EDGE vs ML
10/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig82 +3 vs par
MC13.1% fair 7-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockJacqueline Davisκ 0.11
TrnKathleen Hamlinκ 0.04
Angles
Debut 11% -25%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
CT 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-23 CT 3 Furlongs :37.80 B 33 07-02 CT 4 Furlongs :49.00 B G 54 06-20 CT 4 Furlongs :50.20 B 42 06-13 CT 4 Furlongs :51.00 B 35 05-29 CT 3 Furlongs :37.60 B 34
SIREMidnight Storm 81 50%ile 1st-out 10% (120) turf 12%
No prior races in database
1 Aspen's Angel
3F 116 lbs L
0.6%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-28.0
EDGE vs ML
5/2
M/L
Form
Proj Fig81 +2 vs par
MC18.5% fair 9-2
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockN Arroyo Buenoκ 0.08
TrnRonney Brownκ 0.02
Angles
Ronney Brown: debut 15% -45% Debut 11% -25%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
CT 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-24 CT 4 Furlongs :51.20 B G 42 06-26 CT 3 Furlongs :35.80 B 50 06-06 CT 3 Furlongs :36.40 B 45 05-30 CT 4 Furlongs :51.00 B 44 05-19 CT 3 Furlongs :37.20 B 37 05-08 CT 3 Furlongs :38.80 B 24
SIRETalent Search 82 71%ile 1st-out 15% (53) turf 18%
No prior races in database