MTH 2026-08-01 · US Racing

TRACKS · 2026-08-01

CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO

▸ How to read a horse block

MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σ_α. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.

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Purse $15,500. One And One Sixteenth Miles. (Turf) (Rail at 12 Feet) (plus Up To 40% Njb) For Maidens, Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward. Three Year Olds, 122 Lbs.; Older, 125 Lbs. Claiming Price $16,000, For Each $1,000 To $14,000 1 lb. .

TODAY'S CONTENDERS		WIN% · FAIR / ML	QIK%	STY	P1C	CLASS	PROJ	COND	LAST	SUS	J×T
1	Hop to It	79% 2-5 / 9/5	48.0%	S	3rd/1w	83 +6.9	91¹+9	85¹	84¹	80³	L3J+1.2▼cls	—	✓+4.5★PRIME1∠
2	Sweet Science	2% 50-1 / 5/2	13.7%	C	7th/1w	79 +2.7	74⁷-8	77⁴	72⁵	—	L2T-3.8J+1.6▼cls	22%	⚠-2.84∠
3	Love in the Hills	1% 99-1 / 15/1	3.1%	C	6th/1w	74 -2.0	79⁵-3	—	70⁷	91¹	★goldJ+0.6D→Tspr→rte	—	2∠
4	Katerina Ristova	3% 30-1 / 8/1	6.1%	S	4th/1w	75 -1.3	77⁶-5	80²	72⁵	—	L2J-1.3▼cls	—	⚠-2.02∠
5	Molly the Great	10% 9-1 / 8/1	8.9%	P	2nd/2w	79 +3.2	83²+1	—	75⁴	81²	J+0.6D→Tspr→rte▼cls	—	✓+1.64∠
6	Nina Lee	1% 50-1 / 7/2	10.6%	C	5th/2w	75 -1.4	80³-2	76⁵	76³	—	▼cls	—
7	Balitea	5% 20-1 / 5/1	9.5%	S	1st/3w	75 -1.2	80³-2	79³	78²	—	★gold▼cls	8%

Pace Projector HONEST PACE 1st¼ 23.7s par 23.7 EP/LP

ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 7 »» 102/94 Balitea 5 » 91/105 Molly the Great 1 100/91 Hop to It 4 104/86 Katerina Ristova 6 LP » 76/106 Nina Lee 3 94/98 Love in the Hills 2 LP 94/108 Sweet Science

1 Hop to It ★ PRIME

5M 125 lbs L S

79.2%

MODEL %

2-5

MODEL FAIR

+43.5

EDGE vs ML

9/5

M/L

Form

Proj Fig91 +9 vs par

Needs fits levelbase 83 vs par 82

Class82.9 +6.9 vs race +7.9 gap

MC67.7% fair 1-2

ConfTIGHT σα 0.26

Faced81.4 +6.6 vs today

Pace EP85.2 best 100.1

Pace LP78.1 best 91.0

Energy0.49

Connections

JockEdwin Gonzalezκ 0.2was David Cora · +1.2

TrnTim Woolleyκ 0.24

Angles

3rd off layoff 14% -22%

Record

	Sts	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	5	3	1	0%	85.0
2026	2	2	0	0%	84.7
2025	3	1	1	0%	85.0
MTH	0	0	0	—	—
Turf	5	3	1	0%	85.0
Route	5	3	1	0%	85.0
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-18 FAI Four Furlongs 49.60 b 58

SIREHoppertunity 81 51%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-25 22d	PEN	8.318181818181818f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	81	2	5	4.2		74	nan	88	84	76	84	1.2	David Cora
2026-06-03 208d·6.3×	PEN	8.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	78	2	10	1.0		87	85	89	85	80	85	1.0	David Cora
2025-11-07 33d	LRL	8.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	83	5	9	4.0		93	93	91	80	66	86	3.8	Jorge Ruiz
2025-10-05 32d	LRL	8.5f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	82	2	9	0.2	S	100	93	67	84	75	85	10.6	Jorge Ruiz
2025-09-03	PEN	8.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	83	3	6	3.5	S	88	73	50	85	78	82	18.8	David Cora

5 Molly the Great

3F 122 lbs L P

9.7%

MODEL %

9-1

MODEL FAIR

-1.4

EDGE vs ML

8/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig83 +1 vs par

Needs +4~19% run that

Class79.2 +3.2 vs race +4.0 gap

MC10.0% fair 9-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.37

Faced78.9 +4.1 vs today

Pace EP84.9 best 91.2

Pace LP82.8 best 104.5

Energy0.53

≠ Cross-surface α

Connections

JockChantal Sutherlandκ 0.14was Angel Cruz · +0.6

TrnRenaldo Richardsκ 0.22

Angles

Renaldo Richards: first-time turf 19% +76% Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23% First-time turf 10% -26% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26%

Record

	Sts	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	3	1	0%	81.6
2026	3	1	0%	81.6
2025	0	0	—	—
MTH	0	0	—	—
Turf	0	0	—	—
Route	0	0	—	—
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS ★07-19 LRL 5 Furlongs 1:07.00 B 34 05-28 LRL 4 Furlongs :47.00 B 74 04-04 TAM 4 Furlongs :49.80 B 52 03-11 TAM 5 Furlongs 1:04.20 B G 44

SIREGirvin 85 91%ile turf 12%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-04 55d	DEL	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	79	6	6	11.5		91	73	70	75	60	82	1.7	Angel Cruz
2026-04-10 23d	TAM	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	80	5	8	7.8	F	87	87	104	76	74	84	2.0	Wesley Ho
2026-03-18	TAM	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	78	2	12	0.8		91	94	82	82	79	80	4.3	Wesley Ho

7 Balitea

4F 125 lbs L S

4.7%

MODEL %

20-1

MODEL FAIR

-12.0

EDGE vs ML

5/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig80 -2 vs par

Needs +6~6% run that

Class74.8 -1.2 vs race +5.7 gap

MC7.3% fair 12-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.25

Faced77.7 +2.9 vs today

Pace EP86.3 best 101.9

Pace LP84.6 best 93.9

Energy0.53

Connections

JockMelissa Iorioκ 0.1

TrnJoseph Mazzaκ -0.1

J×T12 · 8% win · 33% ITM

Record

	Sts	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	8	1	0%	78.9
2026	4	1	0%	77.7
2025	4	0	0%	78.9
MTH	3	1	0%	77.7
Turf	5	1	0%	78.9
Route	6	1	0%	78.9
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-12 MTH 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 62 05-31 MTH 4 Furlongs :51.00 B 41 ★05-19 MTH 4 Furlongs :49.80 B G 54 05-13 MTH 4 Furlongs :49.60 B 52 05-02 MTH 4 Furlongs :49.80 B 54 ★03-18 OHC 5 Furlongs 1:05.00 B 69

SIREBal A Bali (Brz) 80 36%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-17 33d	MTH	8.5f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	78	3	9	9.0		—	—	—	78	64	74	36.0	Melissa Iorio
2026-06-14 7d	MTH	8.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	76	6	8	7.8		73	83	93	77	70	74	49.7	Charlie Marquez
2026-06-07 130d·3.9×	MTH	5.5f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	79	9	9	10.8	S	84	86	78	73	54	73	60.7	Kendry Rivera
2026-01-28 49d	TAM	9.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	79	9	9	32.0	F	98	84	86	65	55	74	57.5	Charlie Marquez
2025-12-10 59d	TAM	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	76	11	12	32.2	F	102	90	94	63	44	75	49.1	Jorge Urdaneta
2025-10-12 29d	GP	8.318181818181818f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	83	7	7	37.5	S	93	80	85	63	58	76	51.4	Jose Ferrer
2025-09-13 29d	GP	8.318181818181818f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	82	8	8	35.2		75	88	90	65	58	80	53.8	Luis Fuenmayor
2025-08-15	GP	8.5f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	81	6	8	9.5	F	79	75	98	79	76	82	50.1	Raymond Torres

4 Katerina Ristova

4F 123 lbs L S

2.6%

MODEL %

30-1

MODEL FAIR

-8.5

EDGE vs ML

8/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig77 -5 vs par

Needs +10~1% run that

Class74.7 -1.3 vs race +2.3 gap

MC3.7% fair 25-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.26

Faced79.3 +4.5 vs today

Pace EP84.3 best 104.2

Pace LP78.6 best 85.7

Energy0.54

Connections

JockCharlie Marquezκ 0.05was Francisco Martinez · -1.3

TrnAmira Chichaklyκ -0.14

Angles

2nd off layoff 13% -27% Amira Chichakly: 2nd off layoff 4% -51%

Record

	Sts	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	24	1	0%	84.9
2026	5	0	0%	74.6
2025	11	0	0%	80.0
MTH	3	0	0%	78.1
Turf	10	1	0%	84.9
Route	11	1	0%	84.9
Wet	3	0	0%	79.4

WORKS ★07-09 BEL 1 Mile 1:49.94 B 06-30 BEL 3 Furlongs :39.79 B 20 06-13 BEL 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 44 05-30 BEL 3 Furlongs 36.80 B 48 05-08 BEL 4 Furlongs 48.82 B 60 04-08 BEL 4 Furlongs 50.42 B 52

SIRECatalina Cruiser 82 71%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-17 77d·2.0×	MTH	8.5f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	78	8	9	16.2		—	—	—	72	57	76	20.3	Francisco Martinez
2026-05-01 41d	BAQ	8.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	82	9	10	14.2	S	96	89	85	75	67	76	85.79	Luis Pena
2026-03-21 38d	AQU	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	75	5	6	12.8	S	78	92	86	71	67	76	32.41	Heman Harkie
2026-02-11 40d	AQU	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	80	6	8	32.8	S	104	84	65	70	57	76	70.81	Gokhan Kocakaya
2026-01-02 28d	AQU	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	81	6	6	24.0		73	77	82	70	56	77	56.44	Jorge Panaijo
2025-12-05 22d	AQU	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	78	4	6	16.0	S	82	86	71	69	67	77	30.96	Jorge Panaijo
2025-11-13 41d	AQU	6.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	83	9	10	16.5	S	84	88	85	72	60	78	98.96	Christian Hiraldo
2025-10-03 35d	BAQ	8.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	82	8	10	12.5	S	84	75	98	74	69	78	117.02	Christian Hiraldo
2025-08-29 35d	SAR	8.5f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	86	9	11	16.5		88	91	80	80	76	78	93.75	Favinho Villa Pino
2025-07-25	SAR	5.5f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	83	7	7	19.5		80	nan	91	70	59	78	50.5	Jose Gomez

2 Sweet Science THIN DATA

4F 125 lbs L C

1.7%

MODEL %

50-1

MODEL FAIR

-26.9

EDGE vs ML

5/2

M/L

Form

Proj Fig74 -8 vs par

Needs +8~6% run that

Class78.7 +2.7 vs race -5.2 gap

MC1.6% fair 50-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.29

Faced83.9 +9.1 vs today

Pace EP79.9 best 94.1

Pace LP85.8 best 108.2

Energy0.49

Connections

JockFrancisco Martinezκ 0.18was Jorge Vargas, Jr. · +1.6

TrnMichael Diniκ 0.1was Saffie Joseph, Jr. · -3.8

J×T60 · 22% win · 47% ITM

Angles

Francisco Martinez / Michael Dini 20% +2% Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23% 2nd off layoff 13% -27% Michael Dini: 2nd off layoff 13% -20%

Record

	Sts	Win%	Fig
Life	3	0%	77.1
2026	1	0%	71.5
2025	2	0%	77.1
MTH	1	0%	71.5
Turf	3	0%	77.1
Route	3	0%	77.1
Wet	0	—	—

WORKS 07-08 SAR 4 Furlongs :50.93 B 31 ★06-27 SAR 3 Furlongs :36.91 B 44 06-06 PMM 3 Furlongs :38.40 B 32 05-30 PMM 3 Furlongs :37.90 B 43 ◆Sorokin·93 05-09 PMM 4 Furlongs :51.55 B 28 05-02 PMM 4 Furlongs :51.00 B 44

SIREGhaiyyath (Ire) 82 63%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-17 202d	MTH	8.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	82	7	7	28.2	S	—	—	—	72	58	82	14.1	Jorge Vargas, Jr.
2025-12-27 203d	GP	8.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	85	11	11	11.8		94	82	81	74	72	83	48.3	Micah Husbands
2025-06-07	GP	8.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	84	5	9	9.5	S	65	93	108	77	71	85	4.0	Edgard Zayas

6 Nina Lee THIN DATA

3F 122 lbs L C

1.3%

MODEL %

50-1

MODEL FAIR

-20.9

EDGE vs ML

7/2

M/L

Form

Proj Fig80 -2 vs par

Needs +7~8% run that

Class74.6 -1.4 vs race +5.7 gap

MC4.7% fair 20-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.27

Faced80.1 +5.3 vs today

Pace EP79.0 best 76.1

Pace LP86.5 best 106.1

Energy0.50

Connections

JockLuis Rivera, Jr.κ 0.07was Reylu Gutierrez · +0.3

TrnRob Atrasκ 0.33

Record

	Sts	Win%	Fig
Life	2	0%	76.4
2026	2	0%	76.4
2025	0	—	—
MTH	1	0%	76.4
Turf	2	0%	76.4
Route	2	0%	76.4
Wet	0	—	—

WORKS 07-11 BEL 4 Furlongs :50.54 B 47 06-14 BEL 4 Furlongs :49.81 B G 52 06-08 BEL 4 Furlongs :52.65 B 27 05-26 BEL 4 Furlongs 50.50 B 42 05-13 BEL 4 Furlongs 50.85 B 40 05-03 BEL 4 Furlongs 50.43 B 38

SIRESlumber (Gb) 83 77%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-17 22d	MTH	8.5f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	78	4	9	11.5		—	—	—	76	61	76	5.6	Reylu Gutierrez
2026-06-25	BAQ	8.5f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	82	8	8	15.2		76	84	106	73	59	82	6.79	Jaime Rodriguez

3 Love in the Hills

4F 123 lbs L C

0.7%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-5.5

EDGE vs ML

15/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig79 -3 vs par

Needs +9~5% run that

Class74.0 -2.0 vs race +4.7 gap

MC4.9% fair 20-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.34

Faced76.2 +1.4 vs today

Pace EP82.1 best 93.9

Pace LP86.2 best 98.3

Energy0.53

Connections

JockJoezer Rangelκ 0.03was Luis Ocasio · +0.6

TrnCesareo Marquezκ -0.19

Angles

First-time turf 10% -26% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26%

Record

	Sts	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	4	2	0%	78.0
2026	3	2	0%	78.0
2025	1	0	0%	73.0
MTH	4	2	0%	78.0
Turf	1	0	0%	73.0
Route	0	0	—	—
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 06-14 MTH 4 Furlongs :53.40 B 15 05-31 MTH 4 Furlongs :53.00 B 19 05-08 DEL 4 Furlongs :50.60 B 46

SIREPaynter 83 77%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-11 14d	MTH	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	75	4	6	10.0		84	85	98	70	54	74	6.6	Luis Ocasio
2026-06-27 42d	MTH	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	76	3	6	3.5		94	82	76	78	70	70	62.4	Luis Ocasio
2026-05-16 308d·7.3×	MTH	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	77	3	4	17.0		67	67	95	70	50	70	9.9	Jorge Gonzalez
2025-07-12	MTH	5.5f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	77	7	7	16.0	S	89	nan	94	73	50	78	24.4	Luis Ocasio