ELP 2026-08-01 · US Racing

TRACKS · 2026-08-01

CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO

▸ How to read a horse block

MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σ_α. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.

R1 D R2 D R3 T R4 D R5 T R6 D R7 T R8 D R9 T R10 T

Purse $100,000. One And One Eighth Miles. (Includes $50,000 – KTDF - Kentucky TB Devt Fund). For Maidens, Three Years Old And Upward. Three Year Olds, 118 Lbs.; Older, 124 Lbs. (Preference To Horses That Have Not Started For $30,000 Or Less In Last 5 Starts).

TODAY'S CONTENDERS		WIN% · FAIR / ML	QIK%	STY	P1C	CLASS	PROJ	COND	LAST	SUS	J×T
1	Ingleborough	4% 25-1 / 6/1	8.2%	S	4th/1w	86 +3.5	93⁸-1	94³	89⁹	89³	T→D	16%	2∠
2	Get Them Roses	3% 30-1 / 8/1	6.3%	S	6th/1w	82 +0.2	95⁴+1	93⁴	91⁸	84⁷	L1J-0.7	9%	3∠
3	One More Time	25% 3-1 / 9/2	18.5%	P	1st/1w	82 0.0	95⁴+1	96²	96³	73⁹	L1KEY▲cls	—	3∠
4	Max Is Him	6% 15-1 / 15/1	5.2%	C	8th/1w	85 +2.5	90⁹-4	93⁴	93⁷	90²	J+0.8	—
5	Top Drawer	6% 15-1 / 4/1	11.6%		3rd/1w	91 +8.7	94⁶+0	—	94⁶	87⁵	spr→rte	21%	2∠
6	Don's Winner	12% 7-1 / 5/1	12.6%	C	7th/1w	86 +4.1	94⁶+0	—	96³	80⁸	J-0.6KEYspr→rte	19%	✓+1.31∠
7	Stellenbosch	14% 6-1 / 5/2	19.1%		2nd/2w	91 +8.8	98¹+4	—	97¹	89³	J+1.1spr→rte	—	✓+3.51∠
8	Sequoia Stars	17% 5-1 / 15/1	9.6%	C	5th/3w	87 +5.0	96²+2	97¹	96³	85⁶	J+0.8	0%	✓+3.5LS
9	Equator	15% 6-1 / 15/1	8.9%	C	9th/3w	90 +7.7	96²+2	—	97¹	93¹	L3★goldJ-1.3spr→rte▼cls	21%	LS2∠

Pace Projector HONEST PACE 1st¼ 24.1s par 24.1 EP/LP

ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 3 VULN 87/91 One More Time 7 LP » 76/102 Stellenbosch 5 82/91 Top Drawer 1 92/94 Ingleborough 8 »» 103/86 Sequoia Stars 2 103/95 Get Them Roses 6 94/99 Don's Winner 4 95/84 Max Is Him 9 LP »» 90/101 Equator

3 One More Time

4C 124 lbs L P

24.9%

MODEL %

3-1

MODEL FAIR

+6.7

EDGE vs ML

9/2

M/L

Form

Proj Fig95 +1 vs par

Needs +3~25% run that

Class82.3 0.0 vs race +12.9 gap

MC14.1% fair 6-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.34

Faced84.1 -2.3 vs today

Pace EP79.7 best 87.3

Pace LP81.7 best 90.5

Energy0.54

Connections

JockRafael Bejaranoκ 0.27was Joel Rosario · -0.0

TrnBob Baffertκ 1.02

Angles

Bob Baffert: off layoff (60d+) 28% -20% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	4	1	0%	95.5
2026	3	1	0%	95.5
2025	1	0	0%	91.3
ELP	0	0	—	—
Dirt	3	1	0%	95.5
Route	2	1	0%	95.5
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-26 CD 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 52 ★07-20 CD 4 Furlongs :46.00 B 94 ◆Big Jake·101 07-13 CD Five Furlongs 1:01.40 b 50 07-05 CD 4 Furlongs :47.60 B 77 ◆Salahudin 07-05 Churchill Downs 4f:~ 47.6 nan 06-29 CD 4 Furlongs :48.20 B 60

SIRECollected 83 74%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-05-22 63d	SA	8.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	84	3	6	6.0		72	72	74	96	102	80	8.7	Joel Rosario
2026-03-20 33d	SA	8.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	86	4	6	8.2	F	87	98	88	89	90	77	7.0	Juan Hernandez
2026-02-15 246d·3.9×	SA	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	82	4	5	17.8		71	75	90	89	80	77	5.2	Florent Geroux
2025-06-14	SA	7.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	85	5	8	17.8	F	87	82	80	91	83	85	10.1	Drayden Van Dyke

8 Sequoia Stars LONGSHOT

3C 118 lbs L C

16.8%

MODEL %

5-1

MODEL FAIR

+10.6

EDGE vs ML

15/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig96 +2 vs par

Needs fits levelbase 96 vs par 94

Class87.3 +5.0 vs race +9.0 gap

MC12.8% fair 7-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.34

Faced83.4 -3.0 vs today

Pace EP89.2 best 103.0

Pace LP79.8 best 86.2

Energy0.52

Connections

JockEdgar Moralesκ 0.15was Gabriel Saez · +0.8

TrnJ. Sweezeyκ 0.22

J×T8 · 0% win · 12% ITM

Record

	Sts	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	3	1	1	0%	96.9
2026	3	1	1	0%	96.9
2025	0	0	0	—	—
ELP	0	0	0	—	—
Dirt	3	1	1	0%	96.9
Route	2	1	1	0%	96.9
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-22 CD 5 Furlongs 1:01.80 B 47 ◆Ghost Protocol·85 07-05 CD 3 Furlongs :38.20 B 36 05-31 CD 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 46 05-25 CD 4 Furlongs :47.80 B 67 05-03 CD 4 Furlongs :49.80 B 43 04-25 CD 5 Furlongs 1:01.60 B 38

SIREEnticed 84 82%ile turf 9%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-21 15d	CD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	86	3	11	2.8	F	102	nan	68	96	96	86	12.98	Gabriel Saez
2026-06-06 28d	CD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	82	2	9	1.0		90	75	84	97	98	84	6.19	Axel Concepcion
2026-05-09	CD	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	82	4	9	7.2	F	103	91	86	94	87	84	19.91	Axel Concepcion

9 Equator LONGSHOT

3C 118 lbs L C

14.9%

MODEL %

6-1

MODEL FAIR

+8.7

EDGE vs ML

15/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig96 +2 vs par

Needs +2~31% run that

Class90.0 +7.7 vs race +5.8 gap

MC12.5% fair 7-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.45

Faced87.7 +1.3 vs today

Pace EP83.7 best 90.3

Pace LP86.9 best 100.8

Energy0.51

Connections

JockAlex Achardκ 0.14was Irad Ortiz, Jr. · -1.3

TrnEoin Hartyκ 0.36

J×T14 · 21% win · 57% ITM

Angles

3yo, 3rd off layoff 15% -21% 3rd off layoff 14% -22%

Record

	Sts	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	4	1	0%	97.3
2026	2	0	0%	97.3
2025	2	1	0%	89.8
ELP	2	1	0%	89.8
Dirt	2	0	0%	97.3
Route	0	0	—	—
Wet	1	0	0%	97.3

WORKS ★07-27 TP 5 Furlongs 1:01.60 B 71 07-21 TP 5 Furlongs 1:04.20 B 38 07-14 TP Five Furlongs 1:03.00 b 55 07-07 TP Four Furlongs 51.00 b 36 04-04 TP 3 Furlongs :38.00 B 34

SIREUncle Mo 86 93%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-27 22d	CD	6.5f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	MSW	88	5	8	3.8	F	85	94	101	97	98	90	18.66	Irad Ortiz, Jr.
2026-06-05 298d·10.3×	CD	5.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	87	4	10	6.0	F	—	—	—	88	96	90	11.82	Alex Achard
2025-08-11 29d	ELP	7.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	88	4	11	3.5	F	90	92	95	90	82	89	5.66	Walter Rodriguez
2025-07-13	ELP	5.5f	turf	Good	MSW	88	3	9	4.8	F	87	87	86	86	76	88	4.08	Walter Rodriguez

7 Stellenbosch THIN DATA

3C 118 lbs L

14.0%

MODEL %

6-1

MODEL FAIR

-14.6

EDGE vs ML

5/2

M/L

Form

Proj Fig98 +4 vs par

Needs fits levelbase 97 vs par 94

Class91.1 +8.8 vs race +7.2 gap

MC20.6% fair 4-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.4

Faced87.8 +1.4 vs today

Pace EP79.0 best 76.0

Pace LP85.6 best 102.2

Energy0.50

Connections

JockFrancisco Arrietaκ 0.25was Florent Geroux · +1.1

TrnBob Baffertκ 1.02

Angles

2nd career start 13% -28%

Record

	Sts	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	1	1	0%	97.3
2026	1	1	0%	97.3
2025	0	0	—	—
ELP	0	0	—	—
Dirt	1	1	0%	97.3
Route	0	0	—	—
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-24 CD 5 Furlongs 1:01.00 B 58 07-17 CD 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 49 07-05 CD 5 Furlongs 1:00.60 B 71 06-25 CD 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 50 06-07 CD 4 Furlongs :47.40 B G 78 ◆Kaykay 05-29 CD 5 Furlongs 1:00.00 B 76

SIRETapit 87 96%ile turf 14%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-14	CD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	88	2	10	3.5	F	76	92	102	97	90	88	3.38	Florent Geroux

6 Don's Winner THIN DATA

3C 118 lbs L C

11.8%

MODEL %

7-1

MODEL FAIR

-4.9

EDGE vs ML

5/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig94 0 vs par

Needs fits levelbase 94 vs par 94

Class86.4 +4.1 vs race +8.0 gap

MC8.9% fair 10-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.36

Faced88.3 +1.9 vs today

Pace EP84.4 best 93.8

Pace LP81.2 best 99.0

Energy0.51

Connections

JockBen Curtisκ 0.11was Luis Saez · -0.6

TrnJoe Sharpκ 0.4

J×T47 · 19% win · 51% ITM

Angles

Ben Curtis / Joe Sharp 17% -52%

Record

	Sts	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	2	1	0%	95.8
2026	2	1	0%	95.8
2025	0	0	—	—
ELP	0	0	—	—
Dirt	2	1	0%	95.8
Route	0	0	—	—
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-24 ELP 5 Furlongs 1:02.80 B 42 07-16 ELP Five Furlongs 1:02.60 b 48 07-05 ELP 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 60 05-09 CD 5 Furlongs 1:00.60 B G 70 04-25 CD 4 Furlongs :48.00 B G 57 ★04-18 CD 5 Furlongs :59.60 B 83

SIREGame Winner 84 82%ile turf 6%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-07 21d	CD	7.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	88	2	10	6.5	F	94	83	67	96	100	84	36.74	Luis Saez
2026-05-17	CD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	88	8	11	13.0		88	99	99	93	83	88	53.84	Jaime Torres

4 Max Is Him THIN DATA

3C 118 lbs L C

5.8%

MODEL %

15-1

MODEL FAIR

-0.5

EDGE vs ML

15/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig90 -4 vs par

Needs +5~15% run that

Class84.8 +2.5 vs race +5.0 gap

MC3.4% fair 30-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.4

Faced87.0 +0.6 vs today

Pace EP81.1 best 95.3

Pace LP80.7 best 84.1

Energy0.49

Connections

JockGerardo Corralesκ 0.19was Martin Garcia · +0.8

TrnDale Romansκ 0.45

Record

	Sts	Win%	Fig
Life	2	0%	92.6
2026	2	0%	92.6
2025	0	—	—
ELP	0	—	—
Dirt	2	0%	92.6
Route	1	0%	92.6
Wet	0	—	—

WORKS 07-20 CD 4 Furlongs :50.20 B 40 07-13 CD Four Furlongs 49.60 b 44 06-13 CD 4 Furlongs :49.20 B G 52 05-24 CD 4 Furlongs :48.80 B G 58 05-16 CD 4 Furlongs :49.60 B G 47 05-08 CD 5 Furlongs 1:01.40 B 47

SIREMckinzie 87 95%ile turf 11%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-21 21d	CD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	86	4	11	2.8	F	95	nan	84	93	96	80	21.41	Martin Garcia
2026-05-31	CD	6.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	88	11	11	21.2	F	70	88	80	84	78	88	58.47	Martin Garcia

5 Top Drawer THIN DATA

3C 118 lbs L

5.5%

MODEL %

15-1

MODEL FAIR

-14.5

EDGE vs ML

4/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig94 0 vs par

Needs fits levelbase 94 vs par 94

Class91.0 +8.7 vs race +2.9 gap

MC9.2% fair 10-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.43

Faced87.0 +0.6 vs today

Pace EP80.5 best 82.2

Pace LP82.8 best 91.2

Energy0.51

Connections

JockAxel Concepcionκ 0.14

TrnBrad Coxκ 0.69

J×T47 · 21% win · 53% ITM

Angles

Axel Concepcion / Brad Cox 22% -28% 2nd career start 13% -28%

Record

	Sts	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	1	1	0%	93.7
2026	1	1	0%	93.7
2025	0	0	—	—
ELP	1	1	0%	93.7
Dirt	1	1	0%	93.7
Route	0	0	—	—
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-26 CD 4 Furlongs :48.60 B 57 07-19 CD 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 56

SIREMunnings 84 87%ile turf 14%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-05	ELP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	87	3	8	2.8		82	nan	91	94	91	88	11.67	Axel Concepcion

1 Ingleborough THIN DATA

4G 124 lbs L S

3.7%

MODEL %

25-1

MODEL FAIR

-10.6

EDGE vs ML

6/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig93 -1 vs par

Needs +2~31% run that

Class85.8 +3.5 vs race +7.5 gap

MC12.0% fair 7-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.48

Faced86.7 +0.3 vs today

Pace EP83.6 best 91.9

Pace LP83.2 best 94.3

Energy0.51

Connections

JockMartin Garciaκ 0.11

TrnDale Romansκ 0.45

J×T19 · 16% win · 47% ITM

Angles

Martin Garcia / Dale Romans 14% +23% Turf-to-dirt 14% -27%

Record

	Sts	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	3	1	0%	94.5
2026	3	1	0%	94.5
2025	0	0	—	—
ELP	0	0	—	—
Dirt	1	1	0%	94.5
Route	2	1	0%	94.5
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-13 CD Five Furlongs 1:00.00 b 77 06-07 CD 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 48 05-30 CD 4 Furlongs :48.20 B 61 05-24 CD 4 Furlongs :48.20 B 63 05-15 CD 4 Furlongs :50.60 B 34 ★04-24 CD 5 Furlongs :59.20 B 87

SIREInstagrand 83 80%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-17 46d	CD	12.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	88	8	9	13.8		84	76	94	89	89	88	15.79	Martin Garcia
2026-05-02 38d	CD	8.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	85	3	8	5.5	F	85	nan	74	94	103	86	31.21	Martin Garcia
2026-03-25	TP	6.5f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	86	5	12	8.8	F	92	97	91	93	88	87	6.69	Luan Machado

2 Get Them Roses

3G 118 lbs L S

2.6%

MODEL %

30-1

MODEL FAIR

-8.5

EDGE vs ML

8/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig95 +1 vs par

Needs +3~22% run that

Class82.5 +0.2 vs race +12.1 gap

MC6.5% fair 15-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.24

Faced84.4 -2.0 vs today

Pace EP86.4 best 103.4

Pace LP82.3 best 95.4

Energy0.53

Connections

JockDanny Sheehyκ 0.12was Tyler Gaffalione · -0.7

TrnBrendan Walshκ 0.61

J×T33 · 9% win · 36% ITM

Angles

Brendan Walsh: off layoff (60d+) 16% -14% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% Danny Sheehy / Brendan Walsh 11% -43%

Record

	Sts	Win%	Fig
Life	4	0%	92.9
2026	4	0%	92.9
2025	0	—	—
ELP	0	—	—
Dirt	4	0%	92.9
Route	3	0%	92.9
Wet	0	—	—

WORKS 07-25 CD 4 Furlongs :48.40 B G 63 07-19 CD 5 Furlongs 1:01.20 B 61 07-13 CD Five Furlongs 1:01.40 b 50 07-04 CD 5 Furlongs 1:04.00 B 14 ◆San Siro·105 06-28 CD 4 Furlongs :51.20 B 32 06-20 CD 5 Furlongs 1:02.80 B 29

SIREPractical Joke 86 92%ile turf 11%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-05-02 42d	CD	8.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	85	8	8	14.2	F	73	87	95	91	95	82	14.37	Tyler Gaffalione
2026-03-21 35d	FG	8.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	83	4	8	4.2	F	92	88	75	93	102	78	19.2	Marcelino Pedroza, Jr.
2026-02-14 28d	FG	8.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	84	6	11	16.0	F	103	nan	80	90	98	79	10.9	Tyler Gaffalione
2026-01-17	FG	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	85	7	11	13.8		97	85	86	91	91	85	28.8	Ben Curtis