TRACKS · 2026-08-01
CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO
ALL CARDS ↗
▸ How to read a horse block
MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σα. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.
R1 D R2 D R3 D R4 D R5 D R6 D R7 D R8 D
R4 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
CT 2026-08-01 Four And One Half Furlongs DIRT
77
strength
-4.9 soft
86
win par
fig to beat
HONEST PACE
shape
HONEST
early pace
1st¼ 22.4s / par 22.4
TOP-HEAVY
field
figs 76.3–88.8
Purse $32,900. Four And One Half Furlongs. For Maidens, Fillies And Mares Three, Four, Five, And Six Years Old. Three Year Olds, 120 Lbs.; Older, 126 Lbs.
TODAY'S CONTENDERS WIN% · FAIR / ML QIK% STY P1C CLASS PROJ COND LAST SUS J×T
1 Love You Lucy 0% 99-1 / 4/1 9.7% 3rd/1w — 804-6 — — — — 1∠
2 Aintnofearoverhere 0% 99-1 / 9/2 8.8% 5th/1w — 804-6 — — — 14% 2∠
3 Lucky Darling 0% 99-1 / 15/1 3.0% 7th/1w 72 -10.3 804-6 — 714 — J-0.5T→Drte→spr — ⚠-2.02∠
4 Witty Girl 97% — / 3/1 50.7% 2nd/1w 81 -1.0 891+3 891 891 — J+1.2 — ✓+4.5★PRIME2∠
5 Armucess 0% 99-1 / 7/2 10.7% 4th/2w — 813-5 — — — 40% 2∠
6 Chasing Bonito 0% 99-1 / 20/1 2.4% 6th/2w 74 -8.7 767-10 733 733 941 J-0.6▲cls — ⚠-2.02∠
7 Daring Delight 2% 50-1 / 5/2 14.6% P 1st/3w 82 -0.7 822-4 822 792 872 L1J-0.6▼cls 5% ⚠-1.41∠
Pace Projector HONEST PACE 1st¼ 22.4s par 22.4 EP/LP
ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 7 »» 94/100 Daring Delight 4 Witty Girl 1 Love You Lucy 5 » Armucess 2 Aintnofearoverhere 6 C★ » 83/106 Chasing Bonito 3 Lucky Darling
4 Witty Girl ★ PRIME THIN DATA
4F 126 lbs L
96.8%
MODEL %
—
MODEL FAIR
+71.8
EDGE vs ML
3/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig89 +3 vs par
Needs fits levelbase 89 vs par 86
Class81.3 -1.0 vs race +7.5 gap
MC58.0% fair 4-5
ConfNORMAL σα 0.5
Faced77.5 +0.1 vs today
Connections
JockJacqueline Davisκ 0.11was Leonardo Corujo · +1.2
TrnJoey Martinezκ -0.15
Angles
2nd career start 13% -28% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 10100%88.8
2026 10100%88.8
2025 0000——
CT 0000——
Dirt 10100%88.8
Sprint 10100%88.8
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-11 PEN 4 Furlongs :50.26 B G 44 06-26 PEN 4 Furlongs :47.65 B G 64 06-13 PEN 4 Furlongs :47.87 B G 63
SIREPractical Joke 86 92%ile turf 11%
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-22 PEN 5.5f dirt Fast Mdn Clm 78 2 4 0.2 S — — — 89 83 77 1.9 Leonardo Corujo
7 Daring Delight
4F 126 lbs P
2.3%
MODEL %
50-1
MODEL FAIR
-26.3
EDGE vs ML
5/2
M/L
Form
Proj Fig82 -4 vs par
Needs +8~2% run that
Class81.6 -0.7 vs race +0.6 gap
MC9.2% fair 10-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.3
Faced82.8 +5.4 vs today
Pace EP85.3 best 94.2
Pace LP84.8 best 99.8
Energy0.53
Connections
JockTais Lyapustinaκ 0.05was Xavier Perez · -0.6
TrnEveline Kjelstrupκ 0.11
J×T20 · 5% win · 35% ITM
Angles
1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 70010%82.5
2026 0000——
2025 70010%82.5
CT 10000%79.3
Dirt 50010%82.5
Sprint 70010%82.5
Wet 10000%74.9
WORKS 07-24 LRL 3 Furlongs :36.80 B 50 07-15 LRL 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 55 07-02 LRL 4 Furlongs :50.20 B 44 06-21 LRL 4 Furlongs :50.80 B 40 06-14 LRL 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 56 06-07 LRL 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 42
SIREGolden Lad 82 72%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2025-07-26 27d CT 7.0f dirt Fast MSW 82 4 5 7.5 79 91 95 79 77 82 1.7 Xavier Perez
2025-06-29 37d LRL 6.0f dirt Fast MSW 84 5 6 7.2 94 79 70 81 70 82 14.8 Victor Carrasco
2025-05-23 28d LRL 5.5f turf Good MSW 83 7 7 12.2 F 94 84 94 73 56 83 7.0 Victor Carrasco
2025-04-25 28d LRL 5.5f turf Firm MSW 83 5 11 3.0 87 93 100 81 78 81 41.1 Victor Carrasco
2025-03-28 49d LRL 7.0f dirt Fast Mdn Clm 81 3 7 3.2 88 nan 79 82 78 78 25.9 Victor Carrasco
2025-02-07 21d LRL 7.0f dirt Muddy (Sealed) Mdn Clm 83 5 7 17.0 F 89 91 92 75 59 82 13.8 Victor Carrasco
2025-01-17 LRL 6.0f dirt Fast Mdn Clm 83 5 9 7.2 S 89 83 84 82 66 83 29.8 Victor Carrasco
1 Love You Lucy
3F 113 lbs L
0.2%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-19.8
EDGE vs ML
4/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig80 -6 vs par
MC9.0% fair 10-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockJahnxander Raspaldoκ 0.08
TrnJeffrey Allenκ -0.04
Angles
Debut 11% -25%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
CT 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-14 CT 3 Furlongs :36.40 B 44 06-30 CT 4 Furlongs :49.60 B G 52 06-20 CT 4 Furlongs :48.20 B G 62 ★06-12 CT 3 Furlongs :36.40 B 43 05-29 CT 4 Furlongs :50.00 B G 47 04-18 CT 3 Furlongs :37.20 B 38
SIREBlofeld 85 88%ile 1st-out 19% (98) turf 7%
No prior races in database
5 Armucess
3F 120 lbs
0.2%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-22.0
EDGE vs ML
7/2
M/L
Form
Proj Fig81 -5 vs par
MC5.9% fair 15-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockArnaldo Bocachicaκ 0.16
TrnShane Meyersκ -0.03
J×T5 · 40% win · 80% ITM
Angles
Shane Meyers: debut 13% -28% Debut 11% -25%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
CT 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-25 CT 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 48 06-30 CT 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 56 06-20 CT 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 50 06-02 TDN 3 Furlongs :37.60 B 42
SIREArmy Mule 84 86%ile 1st-out 24% (160) turf 16%
No prior races in database
2 Aintnofearoverhere
3F 120 lbs
0.2%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-18.0
EDGE vs ML
9/2
M/L
Form
Proj Fig80 -6 vs par
MC5.3% fair 20-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockAntonio Lopezκ 0.07
TrnShane Meyersκ -0.03
J×T7 · 14% win · 29% ITM
Angles
Shane Meyers: debut 13% -28% Debut 11% -25%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
CT 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-23 TDN 5 Furlongs 1:03.60 B 60 ★07-15 TDN 5 Furlongs 1:04.00 B G 50 07-07 TDN 5 Furlongs 1:04.40 B 46 06-23 TDN 4 Furlongs :50.60 B 45 06-02 TDN 3 Furlongs :37.60 B 44
SIREUpstart 84 88%ile 1st-out 19% (197) turf 10%
No prior races in database
6 Chasing Bonito THIN DATA
3F 120 lbs L
0.2%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-4.6
EDGE vs ML
20/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig76 -10 vs par
Needs +13~2% run that
Class73.6 -8.7 vs race +2.7 gap
MC3.4% fair 30-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.41
Faced74.6 -2.8 vs today
Pace EP80.8 best 83.4
Pace LP86.4 best 105.5
Energy0.51
Connections
JockSunday Diaz, Jr.κ -0.01was Christian Maldonado · -0.6
TrnDonnovan Haughtonκ -0.3
Angles
2nd career start 13% -28% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 10000%72.7
2026 10000%72.7
2025 0000——
CT 10000%72.7
Dirt 10000%72.7
Sprint 10000%72.7
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-26 LRL 5 Furlongs 1:03.80 B 36 07-09 LRL Five Furlongs 1:03.40 b 49 06-13 LRL 5 Furlongs 1:05.40 B 5 06-06 LRL 4 Furlongs :52.60 B 14 05-30 LRL 4 Furlongs :51.60 B G 22 04-12 LRL 4 Furlongs :52.00 B 30
SIREName Changer 89 97%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-20 CT 4.5f dirt Fast Mdn Clm 75 7 9 8.8 83 83 106 73 54 75 26.0 Christian Maldonado
3 Lucky Darling THIN DATA
3F 120 lbs L
0.1%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-6.2
EDGE vs ML
15/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig80 -6 vs par
Needs +15~<1% run that
Class72.0 -10.3 vs race +8.1 gap
MC9.2% fair 10-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.35
Faced79.3 +1.9 vs today
≠ Cross-surface α
Connections
JockAlexis Espinozaκ -0.05was Sunday Diaz, Jr. · -0.5
TrnOllie Figgins IIIκ -0.02
Angles
Turf-to-dirt 14% -27% 2nd career start 13% -28%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 10000%70.9
2026 10000%70.9
2025 0000——
CT 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-18 CT 4 Furlongs :51.60 B 32 07-11 CT 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 51 07-03 CT 4 Furlongs :50.00 B G 44 06-26 CT 5 Furlongs 1:07.20 B 13 06-20 CT 4 Furlongs :49.60 B G 49 06-06 CT 3 Furlongs :36.40 B 45
SIRELookin At Lucky 83 78%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-25 CNL 8.0f turf Good Mdn Clm 79 9 9 20.0 — — — 71 61 80 51.1 Sunday Diaz, Jr.