CT 2026-08-01 · US Racing

TRACKS · 2026-08-01

CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO

▸ How to read a horse block

MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σ_α. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.

R1 D R2 D R3 D R4 D R5 D R6 D R7 D R8 D

Purse $19,600. Six And One Half Furlongs. For Three Year Olds And Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races. Three Year Olds, 121 Lbs.; Older, 126 Lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since July 1 Allowed 2 Lbs. Claiming Price $10,000, For Each $1,000 To $8,000 1 lb. (Races Where Entered For $6,250 Or Less Not Considered In Weight Allowances) NO WVB CLAUSE.

TODAY'S CONTENDERS		WIN% · FAIR / ML	QIK%	STY	P1C	CLASS	PROJ	COND	LAST	SUS	J×T
1	Sweet Julian	0% 99-1 / 30/1	1.7%	S	7th/1w	73 -7.7	65⁷-20	66⁷	62⁷	—	▲cls	0%	1∠
2	Dats Tap	14% 6-1 / 10/1	9.8%	P	3rd/1w	84 +3.2	67⁶-18	78⁶	80³	78³	T→Drte→spr▼cls	10%	⚠-2.22∠
3	Market Watch ✓	20% 4-1 / 9/5	25.0%	P	1st/1w	82 +0.6	81²-4	84²	80³	—	▼cls	26%	2∠
4	Tiz the Great	16% 5-1 / 7/2	17.2%	P	5th/1w	81 0.0	84¹-1	86¹	85¹	95¹	J+0.9▲cls▲slo-close	12%	✓+1.91∠
5	C'Est La Vie Nick ✓	4% 30-1 / 4/1	11.0%	S	4th/2w	79 -2.1	80³-5	81⁴	80³	—	▲cls	—
6	Hamdoun ✓	7% 12-1 / 9/2	11.7%	S	6th/2w	80 -1.4	79⁵-6	81⁴	80³	—	▲cls	12%	1∠
7	Full Proof	39% 8-5 / 5/1	23.6%	EP	2nd/4w	82 +0.7	80³-5	84²	81²	94²	L2	0%	★PRIME2∠

Pace Projector HONEST PACE 1st¼ 22.6s par 22.6 EP/LP

ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 3 90/102 Market Watch 7 »»» 99/108 Full Proof 2 C★ 87/117 Dats Tap 5 » 97/105 C'Est La Vie Nick 4 96/103 Tiz the Great 6 » 101/108 Hamdoun 1 93/101 Sweet Julian

7 Full Proof ★ PRIME

5G 122 lbs L EP

39.0%

MODEL %

8-5

MODEL FAIR

+22.3

EDGE vs ML

5/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig80 -5 vs par

Needs +4~14% run that

Class81.7 +0.7 vs race -1.8 gap

MC25.1% fair 3-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.39

Faced82.1 +1.1 vs today

Pace EP86.1 best 99.4

Pace LP83.4 best 108.0

Energy0.52

Connections

JockBrittany Scamptonκ 0.03

TrnChristine Clagettκ -0.19

J×T17 · 0% win · 18% ITM

Angles

2nd off layoff 13% -27% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	17	1	2	2	6%	90.1
2026	1	0	0	1	0%	80.9
2025	6	0	1	1	0%	83.8
CT	6	0	1	2	0%	83.8
Dirt	17	1	2	2	6%	90.1
Sprint	16	1	2	2	6%	90.1
Wet	1	0	0	1	0%	81.6

WORKS 06-11 LRL 5 Furlongs 1:04.60 B G 33 ◆Bukovel·82 06-04 LRL 4 Furlongs :49.80 B 48 05-13 LRL 3 Furlongs :39.40 B 20 ★05-06 LRL 3 Furlongs :37.80 B 40

SIREBourbon Courage 82 68%ile turf 12%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-02 215d·8.0×	CT	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	82	3	8	5.2		99	93	89	81	82	82	22.1	Brittany Scampton
2025-11-29 23d	CT	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	82	5	7	7.2		86	83	85	79	75	82	5.3	Brittany Scampton
2025-11-06 15d	CT	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	82	2	7	0.5		92	nan	67	84	81	82	8.1	Brittany Scampton
2025-10-22 27d	CT	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	83	5	6	8.0		84	88	108	83	90	82	38.1	Brittany Scampton
2025-09-25 19d	CT	6.5f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	Clm	82	3	6	1.0		87	91	78	82	87	81	24.2	Brittany Scampton
2025-09-06 21d	DEL	5.0f	dirt	Fast (Sealed)	Clm	82	6	7	12.0		88	84	77	74	63	82	6.4	Brittany Scampton
2025-08-16 258d·9.6×	CT	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	81	4	6	1.8		80	80	95	84	86	81	7.4	Christian Hiraldo
2024-12-01 45d	LRL	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	82	9	11	12.0	F	69	97	101	78	73	82	48.4	Kevin Gomez
2024-10-17 40d	LRL	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	83	8	8	15.2	S	88	86	92	78	66	83	9.9	Jeiron Barbosa
2024-09-07	LRL	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	83	6	7	7.2		85	81	99	77	70	83	5.0	Jeiron Barbosa

3 Market Watch

4G 124 lbs L P

19.7%

MODEL %

4-1

MODEL FAIR

-16.0

EDGE vs ML

9/5

M/L

Form

Proj Fig81 -4 vs par

Needs +3~22% run that

Class81.6 +0.6 vs race -1.0 gap

MC25.0% fair 3-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.24

Faced81.4 +0.4 vs today

Pace EP79.2 best 89.8

Pace LP85.3 best 101.7

Energy0.55

Connections

JockMoises Santaellaκ 0.14

TrnRonney Brownκ 0.02

J×T274 · 26% win · 59% ITM

Angles

Moises Santaella / Ronney Brown 26% -14% Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	9	1	1	1	11%	86.8
2026	8	1	1	1	12%	86.8
2025	0	0	0	0	—	—
CT	4	1	1	0	25%	84.3
Dirt	8	1	1	1	12%	86.8
Sprint	8	1	0	1	12%	86.8
Wet	1	0	0	0	0%	80.1

WORKS 06-21 LRL 4 Furlongs :50.20 B 48 06-14 LRL 4 Furlongs :50.20 B 43 05-03 LRL 4 Furlongs :50.40 B 43 04-04 TP 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 46 03-28 TP 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 59 03-21 TP 4 Furlongs :48.60 B 62

SIREInstagrand 83 80%ile turf 9%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-18 22d	CT	7.0f	dirt	Muddy	Alw	84	6	7	11.5	F	—	—	—	80	79	82	10.8	Moises Santaella
2026-06-26 41d	CT	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	82	4	6	3.5		90	nan	62	82	83	82	1.4	J. Acosta
2026-05-16 7d	CT	7.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	80	1	9	0.5		83	82	86	84	90	81	2.7	Reshawn Latchman
2026-05-09 29d	CT	8.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	79	2	7	0.5		75	92	98	82	81	79	10.3	Reshawn Latchman
2026-04-10 41d	KEE	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	82	7	9	11.5	F	86	94	94	83	80	79	5.21	Flavien Prat
2026-02-28 23d	TP	6.5f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	83	12	12	22.8	F	61	85	102	75	63	82	12.93	Walter Rodriguez
2026-02-05 26d	LRL	7.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	83	5	6	30.0	F	84	86	74	75	62	87	3.8	Martin Chuan
2026-01-10 472d·16.3×	AQU	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn	85	3	6	4.2	F	80	96	92	87	91	85	3.98	Flavien Prat
2024-09-25	CD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	87	7	11	9.8	F	64	94	101	83	70	87	29.67	Tyler Gaffalione

4 Tiz the Great

3G 121 lbs L P

16.3%

MODEL %

5-1

MODEL FAIR

-5.9

EDGE vs ML

7/2

M/L

Form

Proj Fig84 -1 vs par

Needs +4~14% run that

Class81.0 0.0 vs race +3.0 gap

MC25.4% fair 3-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.23

Faced78.4 -2.6 vs today

Pace EP84.7 best 96.4

Pace LP83.1 best 103.4

Energy0.51

Connections

JockCarlos Lopezκ 0.13was Wilfredo Corujo · +0.9

TrnHenry Waltersκ -0.06

J×T8 · 12% win · 38% ITM

Angles

Carlos Lopez / Henry Walters 5% -69%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	14	1	4	3	7%	87.3
2026	8	1	2	2	12%	86.4
2025	6	0	2	1	0%	87.3
CT	0	0	0	0	—	—
Dirt	12	1	4	3	8%	87.3
Sprint	8	1	3	1	12%	87.3
Wet	4	0	2	1	0%	86.7

WORKS 06-30 LRL 3 Furlongs :37.00 B 45 05-31 LRL 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 46

SIRETiz The Law 86 94%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-07 31d	PEN	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	75	1	7	0.0	S	87	88	103	85	78	81	1.1	Wilfredo Corujo
2026-06-06 41d·2.0×	LRL	8.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	81	6	10	7.5	S	87	80	59	76	70	81	9.3	Yedsit Hazlewood
2026-04-26 23d	LRL	5.5f	turf	Good	Mdn Clm	79	5	12	6.2	S	82	82	89	80	74	81	4.5	Yedsit Hazlewood
2026-04-03 12d	LRL	5.5f	dirt	Muddy (Sealed)	Mdn Clm	78	2	6	5.2	S	85	79	94	84	68	80	1.2	Yedsit Hazlewood
2026-03-22 16d	LRL	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	80	3	5	12.0	S	96	nan	78	86	77	82	1.1	Yedsit Hazlewood
2026-03-06 21d	LRL	7.0f	dirt	Muddy (Sealed)	Mdn Clm	80	2	5	1.8		82	94	96	83	70	81	1.0	Yedsit Hazlewood
2026-02-13 21d	LRL	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	80	6	9	5.5	S	92	93	108	83	68	81	3.5	Yedsit Hazlewood
2026-01-23 41d·2.0×	LRL	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	79	3	6	11.5	S	84	86	80	82	68	82	1.4	Yedsit Hazlewood
2025-12-13 20d	LRL	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	82	6	6	8.5	S	89	92	92	84	74	82	1.7	Yedsit Hazlewood
2025-11-23	LRL	8.5f	dirt	Good	Mdn Clm	80	2	9	0.2	S	102	93	84	86	76	82	2.4	Yedsit Hazlewood

2 Dats Tap

4G 124 lbs L P

13.6%

MODEL %

6-1

MODEL FAIR

+4.5

EDGE vs ML

10/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig67 -18 vs par

Needs +10~1% run that

Class84.2 +3.2 vs race -16.9 gap

MC1.5% fair 50-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.46

Faced84.2 +3.2 vs today

Pace EP78.2 best 87.0

Pace LP85.1 best 117.1

Energy0.53

Connections

JockTais Lyapustinaκ 0.05

TrnSomraj Singhκ 0.25

J×T62 · 10% win · 45% ITM

Angles

Turf-to-dirt 14% -27% Tais Lyapustina / Somraj Singh 11% -7%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	24	1	3	2	4%	86.5
2026	4	0	0	0	0%	84.7
2025	14	1	3	1	7%	86.5
CT	0	0	0	0	—	—
Dirt	8	0	1	0	0%	78.2
Sprint	13	1	2	0	8%	86.5
Wet	0	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-24 LRL 4 Furlongs :51.00 B 38 07-18 LRL 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 50 06-18 LRL 4 Furlongs :51.00 B 47 05-29 LRL 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 55 04-17 LRL 4 Furlongs :51.60 B G 34 04-04 LRL 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 59

SIRETapit 87 96%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-26 19d	LRL	9.0f	turf	Firm	Clm	84	6	7	4.2		87	80	69	80	78	84	11.0	Tais Lyapustina
2026-06-07 24d	LRL	5.5f	turf	Firm	Clm	85	4	10	3.0		80	nan	71	82	83	82	15.7	Jean Briceno
2026-05-14 20d	LRL	8.0f	dirt	Good	Clm	84	9	10	40.8	S	67	84	117	64	48	84	37.8	Tais Lyapustina
2026-04-24 140d·7.0×	LRL	5.5f	turf	Firm	Clm	83	9	11	5.5	F	80	88	74	85	82	83	20.6	Ismerio Villalobos
2025-12-05 20d	LRL	7.0f	dirt	Good	Str Alw	85	7	7	40.2		71	88	109	62	42	85	57.1	Gokhan Kocakaya
2025-11-15 27d	LRL	5.5f	turf	Firm	Str Alw	84	6	10	3.2		79	97	89	83	83	84	12.7	J.G. Torrealba
2025-10-19 7d	LRL	5.5f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	80	1	10	0.0	S	74	nan	88	83	77	83	4.1	Daniel Centeno
2025-10-12 7d	LRL	8.5f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	79	4	12	0.5	F	97	80	64	80	73	83	7.0	Daniel Centeno
2025-10-05 21d	LRL	8.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	82	6	10	5.2		93	85	58	79	78	83	7.5	Tais Lyapustina
2025-09-14	LRL	8.5f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	80	2	9	2.0		87	92	88	81	79	83	4.8	Tais Lyapustina

6 Hamdoun

3G 117 lbs L S

7.4%

MODEL %

12-1

MODEL FAIR

-10.8

EDGE vs ML

9/2

M/L

Form

Proj Fig79 -6 vs par

Needs +5~10% run that

Class79.6 -1.4 vs race -0.6 gap

MC9.4% fair 10-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.25

Faced76.8 -4.2 vs today

Pace EP86.7 best 101.3

Pace LP86.2 best 107.5

Energy0.52

Connections

JockDenis Araujoκ 0.11

TrnAdam Kingκ -0.01

J×T8 · 12% win · 62% ITM

Angles

Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	12	1	4	2	8%	81.6
2026	7	1	4	1	14%	81.2
2025	5	0	0	1	0%	81.6
CT	7	1	4	1	14%	81.2
Dirt	11	1	4	2	9%	81.2
Sprint	12	1	4	2	8%	81.6
Wet	2	0	1	1	0%	81.2

SIREWar Of Will 84 84%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-23 21d	CT	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	78	2	8	1.0	S	—	—	—	80	84	79	1.8	Denis Araujo
2026-07-02 19d	CT	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	79	2	9	7.5	F	75	81	81	79	80	79	7.1	Denis Araujo
2026-06-13 49d·2.1×	CT	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	76	1	10	0.0		101	100	108	80	78	78	5.9	Denis Araujo
2026-04-25 15d	CT	6.5f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	Mdn Clm	76	2	7	1.2		88	81	81	81	81	76	7.1	Christian Hiraldo
2026-04-10 23d	CT	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	75	7	9	12.5		94	98	98	71	61	78	10.0	Justin Lewis
2026-03-18 32d	CT	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	75	2	8	9.5	S	96	94	83	76	65	79	11.2	Justin Lewis
2026-02-14 71d·3.1×	CT	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	74	3	6	9.0	S	93	81	53	74	55	80	2.1	Justin Lewis
2025-12-05 47d·2.0×	GP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	81	4	7	12.8		95	89	95	77	69	81	3.0	David Egan
2025-10-19 23d	GP	7.5f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	81	6	9	6.2		77	92	113	82	77	81	4.0	Miguel Vasquez
2025-09-26	GP	7.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	82	4	6	15.2		86	91	88	81	80	82	5.4	Yolber Torres

5 C'Est La Vie Nick

3G 116 lbs L S

3.5%

MODEL %

30-1

MODEL FAIR

-16.5

EDGE vs ML

4/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig80 -5 vs par

Needs +5~10% run that

Class78.9 -2.1 vs race +1.5 gap

MC13.3% fair 6-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.25

Faced77.0 -4.0 vs today

Pace EP86.0 best 96.9

Pace LP87.7 best 104.7

Energy0.52

Connections

JockN Arroyo Buenoκ 0.08

TrnDavid Roseκ 0.02

Record

	Sts	1st	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	4	1	1	25%	80.7
2026	4	1	1	25%	80.7
2025	0	0	0	—	—
CT	4	1	1	25%	80.7
Dirt	4	1	1	25%	80.7
Sprint	4	1	1	25%	80.7
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS ★07-10 CT 3 Furlongs :35.80 B 54 07-03 CT 4 Furlongs :51.20 B 32 06-27 CT 3 Furlongs :39.00 B 19 05-30 CT 5 Furlongs 1:04.20 B 52 05-09 CT 3 Furlongs :36.80 B 46 05-01 CT 4 Furlongs :48.60 B G 62

SIRECairo Prince 84 83%ile turf 15%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-16 33d	CT	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	76	1	7	0.0		—	—	—	80	79	77	1.0	Nomar Arroyo Bueno
2026-06-13 7d	CT	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	76	3	10	1.8		97	98	105	81	76	75	15.9	Justin Lewis
2026-06-06 23d	CT	6.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	78	6	7	19.8		93	nan	90	80	69	78	37.2	Joe Stokes
2026-05-14	CT	4.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	78	6	7	10.0	F	86	97	91	78	60	80	12.5	Justin Lewis

1 Sweet Julian

4G 124 lbs L S

0.5%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-2.7

EDGE vs ML

30/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig65 -20 vs par

Needs +22~<1% run that

Class73.3 -7.7 vs race -8.7 gap

MC0.3% fair 99-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.19

Faced78.3 -2.7 vs today

Pace EP82.0 best 92.9

Pace LP83.8 best 101.0

Energy0.53

Connections

JockAlexis Espinozaκ -0.05

TrnDaniel Siculietanoκ -0.03

J×T14 · 0% win · 7% ITM

Angles

Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	14	1	1	7%	78.5
2026	8	0	0	0%	66.4
2025	6	1	1	17%	78.5
CT	8	0	0	0%	66.4
Dirt	14	1	1	7%	78.5
Sprint	13	1	1	8%	78.5
Wet	3	0	1	0%	78.5

WORKS ★07-08 CT 3 Furlongs :35.00 B G 58 03-21 CT 4 Furlongs :51.60 B 37 03-14 CT 4 Furlongs :50.20 B 47 03-07 CT 4 Furlongs :51.80 B 38

SIREJoevia 78 18%ile turf 6%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-25 7d	CT	4.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	78	6	7	19.0	F	—	—	—	62	55	74	54.6	Alexis Espinoza
2026-07-18 16d	CT	8.5f	dirt	Good	Clm	80	8	8	35.2	S	—	—	—	64	58	74	72.7	Alexis Espinoza
2026-07-02 19d	CT	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	79	9	9	26.2	F	91	nan	71	62	62	76	56.8	Alexis Espinoza
2026-06-13 16d	CT	4.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	78	8	8	10.0	F	73	81	101	64	55	75	92.1	Alexis Espinoza
2026-05-28 20d	CT	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	77	4	7	9.2		80	nan	86	66	66	74	79.7	Alexis Espinoza
2026-05-08 29d	CT	4.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	78	6	6	10.8		79	nan	84	65	56	74	39.8	Shirley Yancapallo Gomocio
2026-04-09 12d	CT	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	77	7	7	20.8		93	90	88	60	46	76	43.3	Omelio Francis
2026-03-28 220d·11.6×	CT	4.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	80	7	7	14.2		96	nan	89	66	63	76	48.1	Anthony Mawing
2025-08-20 22d	FL	6.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	Clm	80	10	10	14.0	S	79	83	78	68	52	78	9.5	Michael Davila, Jr.
2025-07-29	FL	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	79	9	9	15.0	S	92	96	97	72	66	79	11.6	Michael Davila, Jr.