MTH 2026-08-01 · US Racing

TRACKS · 2026-08-01

CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO

▸ How to read a horse block

MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σ_α. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.

R1 T R2 D R3 D R4 D R5 T R6 D R7 T R8 D

Purse $19,000. Six Furlongs. (plus Up To 40% Njb) For Maidens, Three Years Old And Upward. Three Year Olds, 122 Lbs.; Older, 125 Lbs. Claiming Price $25,000, For Each $2,500 To $20,000 1 lb. (Registered New Jersey Breds May Waive the Claiming Price).

TODAY'S CONTENDERS		WIN% · FAIR / ML	QIK%	STY	P1C	CLASS	PROJ	COND	LAST	SUS	J×T
1	Troublemeister	35% 9-5 / 3/1	25.2%	P	2nd/1w	84 +7.5	89²+3	86⁵	86¹	88²	L1T-3.8J-1.5▼cls	50%	⚠-1.33∠
2	Mystical Merlin	36% 9-5 / 9/2	22.5%	EP	1st/1w	83 +6.2	87⁴+1	92¹	84⁴	91¹	L3★goldJ+0.7	0%	✓+2.7★PRIME3∠
3	It'salljustadream	8% 10-1 / 5/1	10.8%	EP	3rd/1w	78 +0.6	83⁷-3	86⁵	82⁵	—	▲cls	0%
4	U Dirty Dog	3% 30-1 / 6/1	7.7%	C	7th/1w	82 +4.5	85⁵-1	87⁴	82⁵	—	J-1.7▲cls	—
5	Royal Merit	8% 12-1 / 5/2	16.1%	P	6th/2w	80 +2.8	91¹+5	89²	86¹	67⁴	▲cls	33%
6	J J Pacheco	8% 10-1 / 6/1	9.8%	P	4th/2w	83 +6.2	88³+2	88³	85³	85³	L3★goldJ-0.5	—	3∠
7	Stem Cell	1% 99-1 / 5/1	7.9%		5th/3w	—	85⁵-1	—	—	—		—	1∠

Pace Projector SPEED DUEL (3+) closers favored 1st¼ 22.2s par 22.6 EP/LP

ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 2 HOLDS ⚡ 99/87 Mystical Merlin 1 LP 94/104 Troublemeister 3 91/101 It'salljustadream 6 » 96/96 J J Pacheco 7 »» Stem Cell 5 LP » 101/104 Royal Merit 4 LP 90/102 U Dirty Dog

On the lead: 2, 1, 3 · race sets up for closers

2 Mystical Merlin ★ PRIME

4G 125 lbs L EP

35.8%

MODEL %

9-5

MODEL FAIR

+17.6

EDGE vs ML

9/2

M/L

Form

Proj Fig87 +1 vs par

Needs +1~40% run that

Class83.2 +6.2 vs race +3.8 gap

MC20.1% fair 4-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.32

Faced83.8 +1.5 vs today

Pace EP84.2 best 99.3

Pace LP75.9 best 87.0

Energy0.55

Connections

JockJose Ferrerκ 0.09was Jorge Vargas, Jr. · +0.7

TrnChuck Spinaκ -0.06

J×T3 · 0% win · 33% ITM

Angles

Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23% Jose Ferrer / Chuck Spina 18% +0% 3rd off layoff 14% -22%

Record

	Sts	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	7	2	1	0%	92.5
2026	2	0	0	0%	83.6
2025	5	2	1	0%	92.5
MTH	5	2	0	0%	92.5
Dirt	7	2	1	0%	92.5
Sprint	5	2	1	0%	92.5
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-29 MTH 3 Furlongs :39.80 B 22 06-21 MTH 5 Furlongs 1:01.00 H 75 05-31 MTH 5 Furlongs 1:02.00 B G 68 05-03 MTH 5 Furlongs 1:01.40 B G 64

SIRESea Wizard 84 85%ile turf 16%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-28 42d	MTH	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	83	7	11	8.5		97	87	84	84	76	83	3.2	Jorge Vargas, Jr.
2026-05-17 142d·3.4×	MTH	5.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	84	7	8	9.0		94	71	87	81	68	84	0.6	Jorge Vargas, Jr.
2025-12-26 79d	OP	8.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	85	5	7	27.5		99	76	51	91	91	85	35.3	Fernando Jara
2025-10-08 38d	DEL	5.5f	dirt	Good	MSW	84	3	6	4.2	F	71	77	78	90	87	85	1.1	Jorge Vargas, Jr.
2025-08-31 28d	MTH	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	83	2	7	0.2		73	nan	67	92	88	84	4.7	Jorge Vargas, Jr.
2025-08-03 23d	MTH	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	83	2	5	0.5		87	88	90	92	87	85	2.2	Jorge Vargas, Jr.
2025-07-11	MTH	8.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	84	5	6	4.8		99	98	93	90	91	83	5.5	Jorge Vargas, Jr.

1 Troublemeister

5H 125 lbs L P

35.0%

MODEL %

9-5

MODEL FAIR

+10.0

EDGE vs ML

3/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig89 +3 vs par

Needs fits levelbase 90 vs par 86

Class84.5 +7.5 vs race +4.3 gap

MC19.2% fair 4-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.35

Faced86.3 +4.0 vs today

Pace EP83.2 best 93.6

Pace LP83.6 best 104.2

Energy0.54

Connections

JockJose Gomezκ 0.06was Jorge Ruiz · -1.5

TrnTeresa Pompayκ 0.26was Patrick Biancone · -3.8

J×T4 · 50% win · 50% ITM

Angles

Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23% Teresa Pompay: off layoff (60d+) 16% +2% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26%

Record

	Sts	Win%	Fig
Life	4	0%	92.8
2026	0	—	—
2025	0	—	—
MTH	0	—	—
Dirt	3	0%	92.8
Sprint	2	0%	86.9
Wet	1	0%	92.4

WORKS 07-21 MTH 4 Furlongs :48.40 B G 69 ★07-09 MTH 5 Furlongs 1:00.60 H 75 ★06-30 MTH 5 Furlongs 1:02.40 B 58 06-20 MTH 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 55 06-12 MTH 5 Furlongs 1:03.20 B 52 06-04 MTH 4 Furlongs :51.00 B 37

SIREWorld Of Trouble 83 74%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2024-03-30 24d	GP	7.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	87	8	11	29.5	F	94	78	84	86	86	87	17.5	Jorge Ruiz
2024-03-06 18d	GP	8.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	Mdn	84	4	8	4.0	F	90	92	63	92	88	88	8.2	David Egan
2024-02-17 15d	GP	8.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	87	4	11	6.8		79	97	104	93	92	88	27.6	David Egan
2024-02-02	GP	5.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	87	6	8	6.2	F	80	90	95	87	84	87	10.8	Oisin Murphy

6 J J Pacheco

3G 122 lbs L P

8.4%

MODEL %

10-1

MODEL FAIR

-5.9

EDGE vs ML

6/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig88 +2 vs par

Needs fits levelbase 86 vs par 86

Class83.2 +6.2 vs race +5.2 gap

MC12.7% fair 7-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.29

Faced82.9 +0.6 vs today

Pace EP88.9 best 95.5

Pace LP78.9 best 95.7

Energy0.53

Connections

JockCharlie Marquezκ 0.05was Melissa Iorio · -0.5

TrnCesar Alcalaκ 0.04

Angles

Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23% 3yo, 3rd off layoff 15% -21% 3rd off layoff 14% -22%

Record

	Sts	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	10	2	4	0%	89.9
2026	2	0	2	0%	85.3
2025	8	2	2	0%	89.9
MTH	5	1	4	0%	89.9
Dirt	8	1	4	0%	89.9
Sprint	9	2	4	0%	89.9
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-26 MTH 3 Furlongs :40.00 B 19 06-13 MTH 4 Furlongs :51.80 B 25 05-09 MTH 4 Furlongs :50.60 B 47

SIREEngage 85 90%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-28 42d	MTH	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	83	3	11	5.0		93	82	76	85	80	83	26.9	Melissa Iorio
2026-05-17 149d·5.3×	MTH	5.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	84	3	8	4.0		93	88	96	85	75	81	19.8	Jorge Gonzalez
2025-12-19 20d	LRL	5.5f	dirt	Good (Sealed)	Mdn Clm	81	6	7	15.0	S	96	83	70	87	64	84	8.3	Angel Cruz
2025-11-29 20d	LRL	7.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	84	7	9	11.0		95	82	95	85	67	85	32.7	Kevin Gomez
2025-11-09 15d	LRL	8.5f	turf	Good	MSW	84	9	11	8.5	S	95	72	53	83	65	86	16.1	Kevin Gomez
2025-10-25 28d	LRL	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	83	5	8	5.2	S	84	79	86	88	72	86	5.8	Jorge Ruiz
2025-09-27 34d	MED	5.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	82	2	7	1.8	S	72	90	90	85	71	86	1.6	Sonny Leon
2025-08-24 29d	MTH	5.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	85	3	6	4.5	F	100	nan	68	90	82	85	5.3	Sonny Leon
2025-07-26 22d	MTH	5.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	84	3	8	7.2		81	101	122	86	69	86	1.0	Paco Lopez
2025-07-04	MTH	5.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	84	2	7	5.0		88	nan	73	88	73	84	9.1	Axel Concepcion

5 Royal Merit

3G 122 lbs L P

8.3%

MODEL %

12-1

MODEL FAIR

-20.3

EDGE vs ML

5/2

M/L

Form

Proj Fig91 +5 vs par

Needs fits levelbase 86 vs par 86

Class79.8 +2.8 vs race +11.3 gap

MC22.6% fair 7-2

ConfTIGHT σα 0.24

Faced80.2 -2.1 vs today

Pace EP86.1 best 100.8

Pace LP77.2 best 103.8

Energy0.53

Connections

JockEdwin Gonzalezκ 0.2was Francisco Martinez · +0.2

TrnMichael Diniκ 0.1

J×T3 · 33% win · 67% ITM

Record

	Sts	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	8	3	1	0%	90.2
2026	8	3	1	0%	90.2
2025	0	0	0	—	—
MTH	4	2	0	0%	89.1
Dirt	6	3	1	0%	90.2
Sprint	6	3	1	0%	90.2
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 04-15 TAM 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 58

SIRECurlin'S Honor 80 36%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-10 26d	MTH	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	80	4	6	6.5		79	84	55	86	82	80	2.3	Francisco Martinez
2026-06-14 14d	MTH	8.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	82	5	7	5.5		78	90	96	82	82	81	7.1	Sonny Leon
2026-05-31 21d	MTH	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	80	2	6	0.2		96	100	104	89	82	80	1.8	Paco Lopez
2026-05-10 16d	MTH	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	80	2	8	11.2	F	101	80	45	87	84	82	7.6	Sonny Leon
2026-04-24 34d·2.1×	TAM	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	79	3	8	3.5	F	95	86	77	89	91	81	3.4	Israel Rodriguez
2026-03-21 14d	TAM	8.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	81	5	10	6.2		89	99	103	79	74	81	3.3	Cipriano Gil
2026-03-07 14d	TAM	7.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	85	6	7	21.0	F	84	79	88	84	82	85	22.9	Samuel Marin
2026-02-21	TAM	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	80	2	8	0.2	F	110	82	97	90	83	81	2.9	Samy Camacho

3 It'salljustadream

3G 122 lbs L EP

8.3%

MODEL %

10-1

MODEL FAIR

-8.4

EDGE vs ML

5/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig83 -3 vs par

Needs +10~1% run that

Class77.6 +0.6 vs race +5.3 gap

MC4.1% fair 25-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.31

Faced80.5 -1.8 vs today

Pace EP82.9 best 90.7

Pace LP87.9 best 101.2

Energy0.55

Connections

JockRamon Moyaκ -0.08

TrnRory Hustonκ 0.05

J×T16 · 0% win · 25% ITM

Record

	Sts	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	6	3	0%	86.0
2026	5	2	0%	82.1
2025	1	1	0%	86.0
MTH	6	3	0%	86.0
Dirt	5	3	0%	86.0
Sprint	4	2	0%	86.0
Wet	1	1	0%	80.3

WORKS 07-12 MTH 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 62

SIREIrish War Cry 83 80%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-19 21d	MTH	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	79	3	7	3.5	F	—	—	—	82	76	76	25.3	Ramon Moya
2026-06-28 14d	MTH	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	83	9	11	14.2		89	89	97	77	69	75	41.4	Ramon Moya
2026-06-14 21d	MTH	8.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	82	7	7	25.2		81	89	94	68	65	78	22.6	Ramon Moya
2026-05-24 14d	MTH	8.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	MSW	79	3	6	5.5		78	94	98	80	79	73	19.0	Ramon Moya
2026-05-10 252d·12.0×	MTH	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	80	8	8	28.2	F	91	92	72	76	63	76	10.0	Jorge Vargas, Jr.
2025-08-31	MTH	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	79	3	8	10.0	S	84	87	101	86	71	79	3.7	Jorge Vargas, Jr.

4 U Dirty Dog

4G 116 lbs L C

3.2%

MODEL %

30-1

MODEL FAIR

-11.1

EDGE vs ML

6/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig85 -1 vs par

Needs +4~14% run that

Class81.5 +4.5 vs race +3.8 gap

MC15.2% fair 6-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.24

Faced82.1 -0.2 vs today

Pace EP81.4 best 89.8

Pace LP86.4 best 101.6

Energy0.52

Connections

JockChristian Maraghκ -0.12was Charlie Marquez · -1.7

TrnChuck Spinaκ -0.06

Record

	Sts	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	11	1	0%	87.1
2026	4	1	0%	84.7
2025	3	0	0%	87.1
MTH	10	1	0%	87.1
Dirt	8	1	0%	87.1
Sprint	10	1	0%	87.1
Wet	1	0	0%	87.1

WORKS ★06-03 MTH 4 Furlongs :49.00 B G 63 05-03 MTH 5 Furlongs :59.60 H G 89 ◆Follow The Fellow·92

SIREWest Coast 82 66%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-19 21d	MTH	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	79	5	7	6.8	F	—	—	—	82	72	82	6.4	Charlie Marquez
2026-06-28 21d	MTH	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	83	4	11	6.8		90	84	85	83	78	82	11.1	Charlie Marquez
2026-06-07 21d	MTH	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	83	7	8	22.2	S	90	90	82	81	70	84	14.8	Charlie Marquez
2026-05-17 212d·7.9×	MTH	5.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	84	2	8	2.2		83	86	93	85	77	82	6.9	Charlie Marquez
2025-10-17 97d·3.6×	MED	5.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	82	4	9	1.5	S	72	93	102	80	70	81	8.8	Sonny Leon
2025-07-12 27d	MTH	8.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	81	8	9	18.8		76	86	89	73	61	83	4.8	Samuel Marin
2025-06-15 294d·10.9×	MTH	5.5f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	MSW	81	4	8	2.2	S	79	86	100	87	82	81	4.5	Axel Concepcion
2024-08-25 29d	MTH	5.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	84	11	12	23.8	F	96	101	112	80	66	83	26.5	Nik Juarez
2024-07-27 23d	MTH	5.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	83	5	9	8.0	F	81	84	97	79	73	83	4.8	Jairo Rendon
2024-07-04	MTH	5.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	84	4	6	8.8		90	92	106	85	74	83	2.9	Samy Camacho

7 Stem Cell

3C 122 lbs L 1

1.0%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-15.7

EDGE vs ML

5/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig85 -1 vs par

MC5.9% fair 15-1

ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285

⚠ No history — ML-anchored

Connections

JockCarlos Rojasκ 0.15

TrnV Barboza, Jr.κ 0.32

Angles

Debut 11% -25%

Record

	Win%	Fig
Life	—	—
2026	—	—
2025	—	—
MTH	—	—
Dirt	—	—
Sprint	—	—
Wet	—	—

WORKS 07-26 MTH 3 Furlongs :39.60 B G 22 07-12 MTH 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 60 07-04 MTH 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 61 ★06-28 MTH 3 Furlongs :36.80 B G 44 06-21 MTH 4 Furlongs :52.80 B 17 06-14 MTH 3 Furlongs :38.00 B G 37

SIREKarakontie (Jpn) 84 82%ile 1st-out 22% (137) turf 19%

No prior races in database