TRACKS · 2026-08-01 ALL CARDS ↗
▸ How to read a horse block
MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σα. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.
R1 T R2 D R3 D R4 D R5 T R6 D R7 T R8 D
R3 CLAIMING
MTH 2026-08-01 One Mile DIRT
78
strength
-2.3 soft
83
win par
fig to beat
LONE SPEED
shape
front favored
HONEST
early pace
1st¼ 24.1s / par 24.1
TOP-HEAVY
field
figs 74.8–85.9
Purse $15,000. One Mile And Seventy Yards. (plus Up To 40% Njb) For Fillies Three Years Old Or Fillies And Mares Four Years Old And Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races. Three Year Olds, 122 Lbs.; Older, 125 Lbs. Non-winners Of A Race At A Mile Or Over Since July 1 Allowed 2 Lbs. Such A Race Since June 1 Allowed 3 Lbs. Claiming Price $7,500, For Each $500 To $6,500 1 lb.
TODAY'S CONTENDERS WIN% · FAIR / ML QIK% STY P1C CLASS PROJ COND LAST SUS J×T
1 Sexpectations 10% 9-1 / 8/1 9.4% S 5th/1w 78 -3.0 756-8 813 773 J-0.7▼cls ⚠-3.3
2 First Hathor 6% 15-1 / 7/2 12.9% S 6th/1w 78 -2.3 803-3 813 705 845 J+0.9T→D▼cls 33% 1∠
3 Charlize Chub 10% 9-1 / 12/1 7.7% EP 3rd/1w 78 -2.3 756-8 767 744 L3J-1.4spr→rte▼cls ⚠-3.31∠
4 Kathleen's Derby 3% 30-1 / 4/1 10.9% EP 1st/2w 78 -2.1 765-7 796 697 854 J-1.2▲slo-close 12% ⚠-2.01∠
5 Hipatia 2% 50-1 / 20/1 3.0% S 4th/2w 77 -3.2 774-6 813 705 863 ▼cls 0%
6 Rachel Caroline 39% 3-2 / 3/1 27.8% C 7th/2w 81 +0.4 812-2 881 812 881 ▼cls 0% ★PRIME
7 Bee N Dee 30% 5-2 / 2/1 28.1% P 2nd/3w 82 +1.9 861+3 852 841 881 J+1.3▼cls ✓+4.5
Pace Projector LONE SPEED front favored 1st¼ 24.1s par 24.1 EP/LP
ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 4 LS★ HOLDS » 97/100 Kathleen's Derby 7 C★ »» 107/106 Bee N Dee 3 96/100 Charlize Chub 5 » 94/92 Hipatia 1 91/96 Sexpectations 2 108/98 First Hathor 6 » 90/100 Rachel Caroline
On the lead: 4 · race sets up for front
6 Rachel Caroline ★ PRIME
8M 122 lbs L C
39.4%
MODEL %
3-2
MODEL FAIR
+14.4
EDGE vs ML
3/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig81 -2 vs par
Needs +4~14% run that
Class81.0 +0.4 vs race +0.4 gap
MC18.2% fair 9-2
ConfTIGHT σα 0.29
Faced81.4 +3.1 vs today
Pace EP81.2 best 89.6
Pace LP81.7 best 100.1
Energy0.52
Connections
JockChantal Sutherlandκ 0.14
TrnJames Frangella, Jr.κ -0.02
J×T6 · 0% win · 17% ITM
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 321383%91.2
2026 30100%81.2
2025 50020%81.6
MTH 271384%91.2
Dirt 271384%91.2
Route 120220%91.2
Wet 30020%85.3
WORKS 07-18 MTH 3 Furlongs :38.80 B 31 06-06 MTH 4 Furlongs :51.00 B 37 05-31 MTH 5 Furlongs 1:06.00 B 24 05-03 MTH 5 Furlongs 1:06.80 B 6 04-28 MTH 4 Furlongs :50.20 B 56
SIREKing Puma 79 26%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-10 26d MTH 8.318181818181818f dirt Fast Clm 81 2 5 4.8 86 76 91 81 81 81 9.2 Chantal Sutherland
2026-06-14 28d MTH 6.0f dirt Fast Clm 83 5 8 8.0 F 86 nan 86 77 67 80 32.4 Chantal Sutherland
2026-05-17 212d·6.2× MTH 6.0f dirt Fast Clm 82 5 7 7.0 F 63 55 60 77 66 80 7.6 Chantal Sutherland
2025-10-17 40d MED 8.5f turf Firm Clm 82 9 10 24.0 90 87 100 71 66 82 22.4 Lane Luzzi
2025-09-07 8d MTH 6.0f dirt Sloppy (Sealed) Clm 80 3 6 2.5 S 85 nan 77 78 71 81 3.2 Madison Olver
2025-08-30 43d MTH 6.0f dirt Fast Clm 81 3 7 3.2 S 81 84 93 82 77 80 8.4 Madison Olver
2025-07-18 33d MTH 6.0f dirt Fast AOC 84 7 10 12.5 F 97 94 98 78 74 82 74.2 Jorge Vargas, Jr.
2025-06-15 240d·7.1× MTH 8.0f dirt Sloppy (Sealed) Clm 81 4 8 9.0 S 86 nan 94 79 75 82 19.0 Fernando Jara
2024-10-18 34d MED 8.0f turf Firm Clm 83 10 12 13.0 88 72 67 72 64 86 42.6 Christopher Elliott
2024-09-14 MTH 6.0f dirt Fast AOC 88 9 11 10.0 F 97 84 74 84 66 86 73.7 Nik Juarez
7 Bee N Dee
4F 122 lbs L P
30.0%
MODEL %
5-2
MODEL FAIR
-3.3
EDGE vs ML
2/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig86 +3 vs par
Needs fits levelbase 83 vs par 83
Class82.5 +1.9 vs race +3.4 gap
MC45.3% fair 6-5
ConfTIGHT σα 0.18
Faced81.1 +2.8 vs today
Pace EP86.3 best 107.1
Pace LP87.9 best 106.3
Energy0.54
Connections
JockEdwin Gonzalezκ 0.2was Luis Rivera, Jr. · +1.3
TrnJose Sanchezκ 0.34
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 1012210%85.4
2026 812212%85.4
2025 20000%78.6
MTH 40210%85.4
Dirt 1012210%85.4
Route 512120%85.4
Wet 10000%80.3
WORKS 07-24 MTH 4 Furlongs :47.60 H 77 07-04 MTH 4 Furlongs :50.40 B 46 06-06 MTH 4 Furlongs :51.40 B 30 05-10 MTH 4 Furlongs :50.60 B 42
SIREMission Impazible 81 51%ile turf 8%
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-10 26d MTH 8.318181818181818f dirt Fast Clm 81 3 5 4.8 88 nan 88 84 81 82 1.7 Luis Rivera, Jr.
2026-06-14 21d MTH 8.318181818181818f dirt Fast Clm 80 2 6 2.5 S 77 79 106 85 82 82 0.6 Paco Lopez
2026-05-24 8d MTH 8.5f dirt Sloppy (Sealed) Clm 82 5 8 8.5 93 87 88 80 76 82 16.3 Charlie Marquez
2026-05-16 41d MTH 8.5f dirt Fast Clm 81 2 5 9.5 S 107 90 76 81 70 83 0.7 Luis Rivera, Jr.
2026-04-05 30d GP 7.0f dirt Fast Clm 81 3 6 3.8 F 85 87 104 84 81 82 2.3 Paco Lopez
2026-03-06 28d GP 6.5f dirt Fast Clm 83 5 7 11.8 67 82 101 83 78 82 19.3 Carlos Martinez
2026-02-06 26d GP 8.0f dirt Fast Mdn Clm 78 1 5 0.0 S 80 75 81 82 73 80 3.7 Carlos Martinez
2026-01-11 23d GP 6.0f dirt Fast Mdn Clm 79 5 7 6.0 S 67 81 100 79 69 79 18.6 Carlos Martinez
2025-12-19 42d GP 6.5f dirt Fast Mdn Clm 78 5 7 3.2 F 70 82 103 79 66 73 14.2 Edwin Gonzalez
2025-11-07 GP 6.5f dirt Fast Mdn Clm 78 4 8 18.8 F 91 89 78 78 60 81 8.6 Emisael Jaramillo
1 Sexpectations
4F 122 lbs L S
10.2%
MODEL %
9-1
MODEL FAIR
-0.9
EDGE vs ML
8/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig75 -8 vs par
Needs +9~2% run that
Class77.6 -3.0 vs race -2.5 gap
MC6.0% fair 15-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.21
Faced81.0 +2.7 vs today
Pace EP80.0 best 91.1
Pace LP83.0 best 95.8
Energy0.54
Connections
JockPedro Cotto, Jr.κ -0.02was Angel Morales · -0.7
TrnRiquelvis Grullonκ 0.0
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 141217%81.0
2026 1011110%81.0
2025 40100%79.7
MTH 70000%79.7
Dirt 911111%81.0
Route 121218%81.0
Wet 0000
WORKS 04-21 TAM 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 60 03-25 TAM 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 46
SIREGlobal Campaign 82 72%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-19 9d MTH 8.0f dirt Fast Clm 81 4 6 7.5 77 81 77 31.4 Angel Morales
2026-07-10 26d MTH 8.318181818181818f dirt Fast Clm 81 4 5 19.5 83 86 88 74 68 78 22.4 Carlos Rojas
2026-06-14 7d MTH 8.318181818181818f dirt Fast Clm 80 5 6 23.2 S 82 79 86 72 64 79 12.8 Luis Ocasio
2026-06-07 22d MTH 8.5f turf Firm Clm 82 6 9 10.8 F 68 83 96 76 80 79 36.3 Jorge Gonzalez
2026-05-16 17d MTH 8.5f dirt Fast Clm 81 5 5 40.5 S 91 nan 86 68 45 81 3.0 Jose Gomez
2026-04-29 25d TAM 8.5f dirt Fast Clm 80 3 6 2.8 76 75 68 81 83 80 2.0 Sonny Leon
2026-04-04 29d TAM 8.181818181818182f dirt Fast Mdn Clm 77 1 8 0.0 S 81 76 81 78 75 78 2.5 Sonny Leon
2026-03-06 14d TAM 8.181818181818182f dirt Fast Mdn Clm 76 2 7 2.5 S 77 90 95 76 73 76 9.2 Ronaldo Rodriguez
2026-02-20 16d TAM 8.0f turf Firm Mdn Clm 78 9 10 9.8 77 82 85 74 70 76 20.6 Israel Rodriguez
2026-02-04 TAM 5.5f dirt Fast Mdn Clm 76 7 8 9.5 F 79 nan 80 74 63 76 2.2 Chris Landeros
3 Charlize Chub
6M 113 lbs L EP
10.0%
MODEL %
9-1
MODEL FAIR
+2.3
EDGE vs ML
12/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig75 -8 vs par
Needs +9~2% run that
Class78.3 -2.3 vs race -3.5 gap
MC7.0% fair 12-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.27
Faced81.0 +2.7 vs today
Pace EP83.9 best 96.1
Pace LP84.5 best 99.7
Energy0.55
Connections
JockNoel Hermanκ -0.17was Luis Ocasio · -1.4
TrnTony Wilsonκ 0.08
Angles
3rd off layoff 14% -22%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 371063%82.1
2026 20000%74.4
2025 110020%76.9
MTH 90020%80.3
Dirt 321053%82.1
Route 70000%76.2
Wet 20010%82.1
WORKS 06-27 MTH 3 Furlongs :36.80 B 49 06-20 MTH 5 Furlongs 1:01.60 B 63 06-13 MTH 4 Furlongs :50.40 B 41
SIREHey Chub 82 67%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-25 20d MTH 6.0f dirt Fast Clm 83 4 6 10.0 F 74 72 78 24.5 Luis Ocasio
2026-07-05 219d·10.9× MTH 6.0f dirt Fast Clm 83 5 7 7.2 85 78 76 74 66 78 38.0 Luis Ocasio
2025-11-28 9d PEN 6.0f dirt Fast Clm 79 6 6 18.8 S 83 88 81 73 62 79 25.2 Raul Mena
2025-11-19 32d PEN 8.318181818181818f dirt Fast Clm 80 4 7 21.0 S 88 92 92 72 63 81 16.6 Adam Bowman
2025-10-18 10d DEL 6.0f dirt Fast Clm 80 6 10 3.2 S 96 91 100 75 64 80 11.9 Adam Bowman
2025-10-08 7d DEL 8.0f dirt Good Clm 82 4 7 3.2 S 80 89 87 74 69 79 14.1 Alexander Crispin
2025-10-01 9d DEL 5.5f dirt Fast Clm 80 5 8 5.5 F 84 86 94 77 76 78 21.8 Raul Mena
2025-09-22 37d PRX 7.0f dirt Fast Clm 82 9 10 21.8 F 97 98 103 71 69 79 41.9 Adam Bowman
2025-08-16 23d DEL 6.0f dirt Fast Clm 79 3 7 3.5 S 81 89 102 77 65 78 10.7 Luis Rivera
2025-07-24 PRX 6.0f dirt Fast Clm 82 5 6 21.8 96 84 65 71 55 80 31.3 Adam Bowman
2 First Hathor
3F 119 lbs L S
5.5%
MODEL %
15-1
MODEL FAIR
-16.7
EDGE vs ML
7/2
M/L
Form
Proj Fig80 -3 vs par
Needs +7~4% run that
Class78.3 -2.3 vs race +2.1 gap
MC9.5% fair 9-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.21
Faced79.2 +0.9 vs today
Pace EP86.4 best 108.0
Pace LP87.0 best 98.3
Energy0.53
Connections
JockLuis Rivera, Jr.κ 0.07was Pedro Cotto, Jr. · +0.9
TrnKathleen O'Connellκ 0.17
J×T3 · 33% win · 67% ITM
Angles
Turf-to-dirt 14% -27%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 610017%80.6
2026 610017%80.6
2025 0000
MTH 10000%69.8
Dirt 510020%80.6
Route 410025%80.6
Wet 0000
WORKS 06-26 MTH 4 Furlongs :52.00 B 22 05-17 MTH 4 Furlongs :53.40 B 11 03-15 TAM 4 Furlongs :51.20 B 39
SIREFirst Dude 83 76%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-07 42d·2.0× MTH 8.5f turf Firm Clm 82 8 9 24.2 F 72 90 96 70 68 80 49.5 Pedro Cotto, Jr.
2026-04-26 14d TAM 8.181818181818182f dirt Fast Mdn Clm 78 1 5 0.0 84 88 91 81 77 78 1.7 Samuel Marin
2026-04-12 42d·2.0× TAM 8.181818181818182f dirt Fast Mdn Clm 77 4 7 7.0 S 97 95 90 78 72 77 2.5 Samuel Marin
2026-03-01 21d TAM 8.5f dirt Fast Mdn Clm 80 4 8 13.0 108 90 81 79 74 78 23.0 Charlie Marquez
2026-02-08 21d TAM 7.0f dirt Fast Mdn Clm 80 4 7 11.8 F 91 105 98 77 63 80 9.2 Charlie Marquez
2026-01-18 TAM 6.0f dirt Fast Mdn Clm 81 5 7 8.2 S 92 88 91 79 54 81 4.2 Samuel Marin
4 Kathleen's Derby
3F 119 lbs L EP
3.1%
MODEL %
30-1
MODEL FAIR
-16.9
EDGE vs ML
4/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig76 -7 vs par
Needs +10~1% run that
Class78.5 -2.1 vs race -2.6 gap
MC3.9% fair 25-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.32
Faced78.0 -0.3 vs today
Pace EP79.7 best 97.3
Pace LP77.5 best 99.7
Energy0.55
Connections
JockMelissa Iorioκ 0.1was Samuel Marin · -1.2
TrnKathleen O'Connellκ 0.17
J×T66 · 12% win · 50% ITM
Angles
Melissa Iorio / Kathleen O'Connell 16% +4%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 910111%78.7
2026 710114%78.7
2025 20000%77.8
MTH 10000%69.1
Dirt 410025%78.7
Route 510120%78.7
Wet 1100100%78.7
WORKS 07-24 MTH 4 Furlongs :50.80 B 37 06-10 MTH 3 Furlongs :37.80 B 45 ◆Securitylightning·89 04-12 TAM 4 Furlongs :50.40 B 46 03-06 TAM 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 62 ◆Watts Up Buddy
SIRELeinster 89 97%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-14 43d MTH 8.318181818181818f dirt Fast Clm 80 6 6 37.5 S 76 87 94 69 52 80 3.0 Samuel Marin
2026-05-02 10d TAM 8.181818181818182f dirt Sloppy Mdn Clm 78 1 6 0.0 S 65 82 68 79 81 79 1.1 Samuel Marin
2026-04-22 38d TAM 8.0f turf Firm Mdn Clm 79 5 9 7.2 F 97 75 58 72 66 79 3.7 Hector Diaz, Jr.
2026-03-15 22d TAM 8.0f turf Firm Mdn Clm 76 3 10 2.2 F 91 98 100 77 74 77 6.1 Sonny Leon
2026-02-21 22d TAM 6.0f dirt Fast Mdn Clm 77 5 8 11.8 F 67 72 60 72 62 77 2.9 Sonny Leon
2026-01-30 28d GP 8.0f turf Firm Mdn Clm 81 10 10 15.0 87 85 92 72 68 78 38.6 Luca Panici
2026-01-02 40d GP 7.5f turf Firm Mdn Clm 82 6 7 14.0 101 88 92 73 68 79 34.5 Luca Panici
2025-11-23 51d GP 5.5f synthetic Fast Mdn Clm 82 7 9 8.5 F 76 83 85 74 60 77 12.6 Luca Panici
2025-10-03 GP 6.0f dirt Fast MSW 85 6 8 17.8 F 102 82 72 78 66 85 16.3 Leonel Reyes
5 Hipatia
5M 120 lbs L S
1.8%
MODEL %
50-1
MODEL FAIR
-3.0
EDGE vs ML
20/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig77 -6 vs par
Needs +9~2% run that
Class77.4 -3.2 vs race -0.4 gap
MC10.1% fair 9-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.31
Faced81.1 +2.8 vs today
Pace EP84.0 best 93.6
Pace LP84.2 best 92.1
Energy0.54
Connections
JockCharlie Marquezκ 0.05
TrnHolly Harrisκ -0.07
J×T5 · 0% win · 0% ITM
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 281154%83.1
2026 30000%76.7
2025 70030%80.7
MTH 150030%82.6
Dirt 170150%83.1
Route 231144%83.1
Wet 20000%78.4
WORKS 07-05 MTH 4 Furlongs :50.40 B 48 05-30 MTH 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 49 05-09 MTH 4 Furlongs :50.60 B 47 05-03 MTH 3 Furlongs :38.00 B 32
SIREOutwork 82 71%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-10 26d MTH 8.318181818181818f dirt Fast Clm 81 5 5 31.8 89 83 82 70 58 79 21.1 Charlie Marquez
2026-06-14 29d MTH 8.318181818181818f dirt Fast Clm 80 4 6 19.2 S 86 87 92 75 67 80 15.6 Charlie Marquez
2026-05-16 220d·11.0× MTH 8.5f dirt Fast Clm 81 4 5 15.0 S 94 97 84 77 66 81 13.8 Charlie Marquez
2025-10-08 11d DEL 8.0f dirt Good Clm 82 3 7 3.2 S 84 nan 86 76 69 81 3.7 Jorge Gonzalez
2025-09-27 36d MED 8.0f turf Firm Clm 81 5 12 7.0 F 79 79 89 77 73 80 42.6 Jorge Gonzalez
2025-08-22 20d MTH 8.0f dirt Fast Clm 80 3 7 2.2 S 100 81 85 81 83 79 17.9 Jorge Gonzalez
2025-08-02 20d MTH 8.0f dirt Fast Clm 80 3 5 8.2 S 79 92 89 78 74 78 30.5 Jorge Gonzalez
2025-07-13 15d MTH 8.5f turf Firm Clm 82 7 9 16.8 87 81 70 76 65 80 78.6 Jorge Gonzalez
2025-06-28 13d MTH 8.0f turf Firm Clm 81 5 6 8.0 S 81 nan 90 74 63 79 22.2 Jorge Gonzalez
2025-06-15 MTH 8.0f dirt Sloppy (Sealed) Clm 81 7 8 11.5 S 90 72 70 78 73 80 43.9 Jorge Gonzalez