MTH 2026-08-01 · US Racing

TRACKS · 2026-08-01

CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO

▸ How to read a horse block

MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σ_α. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.

R1 T R2 D R3 D R4 D R5 T R6 D R7 T R8 D

MTH 2026-08-01 Five And One Half Furlongs TURF

strength

-3.8 soft

win par

fig to beat

SPEED DUEL (3+)

shape

closers favored

FAST

early pace

1st¼ 21.9s / par 22.4

TOP-HEAVY

field

figs 76.5–85.7

Purse $51,875. Five And One Half Furlongs. (Turf) (Rail at 12 Feet) (Includes $10,375 – NJB - New Jersey Bred Enhancement). For Registered New Jersey Breds Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward Which Have Never Won A Race Other Than Maiden, Claiming, Or Starter Or Which Have Never Won Two Races Or Claiming Price $15,000. Three Year Olds, 122 Lbs.; Older, 125 Lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since June 1 Allowed 2 Lbs. Claiming Price $15,000 (Races Where Entered For $10,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances) Allowance Condition Preferred. .

TODAY'S CONTENDERS		WIN% · FAIR / ML	QIK%	STY	P1C	CLASS	PROJ	COND	LAST	SUS	J×T
1	One Fine Wine ✓	34% 2-1 / 2/1	26.7%	P	4th/1w	83 -4.5	85³-2	84¹	85²	86²	D→T	—	★PRIME4∠
2	Life Raft	1% 99-1 / 30/1	1.6%	P	7th/1w	77 -10.6	78⁹-9	78¹¹	73¹¹	—	J+0.8	—
3	Point to That Star ✓	5% 20-1 / 6/1	7.7%	P	9th/1w	80 -7.4	80⁸-7	80⁸	77⁷	94¹	J+0.7▲cls	—
4	Lidia Rose	8% 12-1 / 8/1	7.5%	EP	1st/1w	84 -4.4	82⁷-5	79¹⁰	79⁶	—	★gold	0%	⚠-1.0
5	Postino's Prophecy ✓	12% 7-1 / 8/1	9.4%	S	11th/1w	84 -3.6	83⁴-4	82⁵	81⁴	82⁴		0%	⚠-1.61∠
6	Air Masque ✓	3% 30-1 / 8/1	5.7%	EP	2nd/2w	86 -1.4	78⁹-9	82⁵	74¹⁰	—	L2J+0.5	30%	2∠
7	Starview Twinkle ✓	2% 30-1 / 8/1	5.4%	EP	5th/3w	83 -4.7	86¹-1	83²	75⁹	—	D→T	0%	4∠
8	Eazy Whirled ✓	4% 25-1 / 7/2	10.3%	S	10th/2w	86 -2.2	86¹-1	80⁸	87¹	81⁵	rte→spr▼cls	17%
9	Golden Ring ✓	4% 20-1 / 6/1	7.5%	P	8th/2w	84 -3.8	83⁴-4	83²	82³	85³	L3J-0.5rte→spr▼cls	—	⚠-2.0
10	She's a Bombshell ✓	18% 9-2 / 20/1	9.1%	EP	6th/4w	84 -3.4	76¹¹-11	82⁵	81⁴	—	L3★goldJ-2.6D→T	25%	⚠-3.1LS4∠
11	Slick Merlin ✓	9% 10-1 / 6/1	9.2%	EP	3rd/4w	84 -3.4	83⁴-4	83²	76⁸	—	★goldJ+0.9D→T	23%	3∠

Pace Projector SPEED DUEL (3+) closers favored 1st¼ 21.9s par 22.4 EP/LP

ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 4 LP 93/106 Lidia Rose 6 » 95/96 Air Masque 11 »»» 98/101 Slick Merlin 1 LP ⚡ 94/107 One Fine Wine 7 »» 92/85 Starview Twinkle 10 »»» 96/95 She's a Bombshell 2 LP 97/108 Life Raft 9 LP » 89/105 Golden Ring 3 96/93 Point to That Star 8 » 103/97 Eazy Whirled 5 97/104 Postino's Prophecy

On the lead: 4, 6, 11, 1 · race sets up for closers

1 One Fine Wine ★ PRIME

5M 125 lbs L P

33.6%

MODEL %

2-1

MODEL FAIR

+0.3

EDGE vs ML

2/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig85 -2 vs par

Needs +4~14% run that

Class83.4 -4.5 vs race +1.3 gap

MC19.5% fair 4-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.35

Faced85.5 +1.4 vs today

Pace EP84.9 best 93.6

Pace LP87.7 best 107.3

Energy0.53

Connections

JockEdwin Gonzalezκ 0.2

TrnPatrick McBurneyκ 0.16

Angles

Patrick McBurney: first-time turf 11% +8% First-time turf 10% -26% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	21	3	7	3	14%	87.9
2026	5	1	2	0	20%	85.3
2025	9	2	2	1	22%	87.9
MTH	17	3	6	3	18%	87.9
Turf	14	1	5	3	7%	83.8
Sprint	14	1	4	3	7%	87.9
Wet	1	1	0	0	100%	84.5

WORKS 07-26 MTH 4 Furlongs :52.80 B 18 06-14 MTH 3 Furlongs :39.60 B 24 05-26 HOU 220 Yards :13.07 B 04-10 TAM 4 Furlongs :49.60 B 55 ◆Allison Park·89 03-29 TAM 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 61 03-24 TAM 4 Furlongs :52.80 B 21 ◆John Jay·92

SIREMicromanage 79 20%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-10 20d	MTH	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	84	1	5	0.0	S	94	nan	80	85	85	82	1.5	Edwin Gonzalez
2026-06-20 20d	MTH	5.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	84	2	10	0.2		—	—	—	84	79	79	3.2	Sonny Leon
2026-05-31 21d	MTH	8.318181818181818f	dirt	Fast	AOC	84	6	8	16.5		82	84	103	80	74	81	3.3	Paco Lopez
2026-05-10 16d	MTH	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Alw	86	2	9	4.8		92	88	90	85	81	79	5.1	Paco Lopez
2026-04-24 196d·9.8×	TAM	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	89	4	5	16.8	F	—	—	—	83	80	80	19.6	Israel Rodriguez
2025-10-10 14d	MED	5.0f	turf	Firm	AOC	86	8	11	5.5		79	82	82	78	72	82	7.2	Sonny Leon
2025-09-26 19d	MED	8.5f	turf	Good	AOC	86	2	10	2.8		93	92	107	82	86	83	10.0	Sonny Leon
2025-09-07 14d	MTH	8.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	Clm	86	1	6	0.0	S	95	89	84	84	81	84	1.9	Paco Lopez
2025-08-24 22d	MTH	5.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	84	3	7	5.0		—	—	—	84	81	83	5.4	Paco Lopez
2025-08-02	MTH	5.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	86	4	12	2.2		—	—	—	82	80	83	2.2	Paco Lopez

10 She's a Bombshell LONGSHOT

4F 116 lbs L EP

18.0%

MODEL %

9-2

MODEL FAIR

+13.2

EDGE vs ML

20/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig76 -11 vs par

Needs +8~2% run that

Class84.5 -3.4 vs race -8.0 gap

MC1.9% fair 50-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.34

Faced86.1 +2.0 vs today

Pace EP84.7 best 96.4

Pace LP83.1 best 94.5

Energy0.54

Connections

JockChristian Maraghκ -0.12was Chantal Sutherland · -2.6

TrnAnthony Margotta, Jr.κ 0.26

J×T4 · 25% win · 25% ITM

Angles

3rd off layoff 14% -22% First-time turf 10% -26% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26% Anthony Margotta, Jr.: first-time turf 8% -73%

Record

	Sts	1st	Win%	Fig
Life	12	2	17%	89.5
2026	2	0	0%	80.7
2025	8	1	12%	89.5
MTH	9	2	22%	89.5
Turf	4	0	0%	82.0
Sprint	12	2	17%	89.5
Wet	1	0	0%	80.9

WORKS 06-28 MTH 3 Furlongs :38.20 B G 31 06-14 MTH 4 Furlongs :48.60 B G 71 05-23 MTH 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 63 05-17 MTH 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 56

SIRESea Wizard 84 85%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-24 54d·2.6×	MTH	6.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	85	5	6	9.2	F	—	—	—	81	78	84	6.3	Chantal Sutherland
2026-05-31 155d·7.4×	MTH	5.5f	turf	Firm	Clm	85	8	8	9.8		93	89	82	76	70	85	13.1	Chantal Sutherland
2025-12-27 15d	LRL	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Str Alw	85	8	9	7.0	S	96	91	84	81	74	85	15.7	Paul Luna
2025-12-12 78d·3.7×	LRL	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Str Alw	87	5	6	14.0	S	86	80	87	82	74	86	18.9	Raul Mena
2025-09-25 12d	BAQ	6.0f	dirt	Muddy (Sealed)	Str Alw	89	8	8	17.5	F	71	96	94	81	75	87	20.83	John Velazquez
2025-09-13 20d	MTH	5.0f	turf	Firm	Stk	89	8	11	9.2		91	75	77	82	76	87	31.2	Chantal Sutherland
2025-08-24 42d·2.0×	MTH	6.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	85	1	7	0.0	S	91	89	102	90	89	84	6.6	Chantal Sutherland
2025-07-13 21d	MTH	5.5f	turf	Firm	Clm	87	5	8	2.0		—	—	—	78	70	83	24.4	Chantal Sutherland
2025-06-22 15d	MTH	5.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	84	9	10	9.0		—	—	—	75	67	81	8.2	Samuel Marin
2025-06-07	MTH	6.0f	dirt	Good	AOC	89	7	7	23.5	F	79	81	92	77	72	82	31.7	Fernando Jara

5 Postino's Prophecy

7M 123 lbs L S

12.4%

MODEL %

7-1

MODEL FAIR

+1.3

EDGE vs ML

8/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig83 -4 vs par

Needs +6~6% run that

Class84.3 -3.6 vs race -0.9 gap

MC8.9% fair 10-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.2

Faced85.1 +1.0 vs today

Pace EP82.9 best 96.8

Pace LP82.1 best 104.1

Energy0.50

Connections

JockChantal Sutherlandκ 0.14

TrnHolly Harrisκ -0.07

J×T10 · 0% win · 10% ITM

Angles

Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	33	2	5	4	6%	87.2
2026	4	0	1	0	0%	82.0
2025	9	0	0	0	0%	81.6
MTH	26	2	4	3	8%	87.2
Turf	28	2	5	3	7%	87.2
Sprint	8	0	1	1	0%	84.5
Wet	3	0	0	1	0%	75.7

WORKS 05-21 MTH 4 Furlongs :50.60 B 48 05-13 MTH 4 Furlongs :51.00 B 37 05-06 MTH 4 Furlongs :53.00 B 22

SIREIl Postino 83 76%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-11 14d	MTH	5.5f	turf	Firm	Clm	84	2	7	0.2	S	69	77	95	81	69	84	16.7	Chantal Sutherland
2026-06-27 13d	MTH	8.0f	turf	Firm	Stk	87	8	8	12.2	S	91	89	54	81	76	84	38.7	Jorge Gonzalez
2026-06-14 14d	MTH	8.0f	turf	Firm	Clm	85	6	7	3.8	S	97	83	74	81	75	84	28.7	Jomar Torres
2026-05-31 233d·16.6×	MTH	5.5f	turf	Firm	Clm	85	5	8	4.2		81	87	90	82	77	84	38.4	Jorge Gonzalez
2025-10-10 6d	MED	8.5f	turf	Firm	Clm	85	7	8	8.0	F	84	113	104	80	83	85	25.7	Jorge Gonzalez
2025-10-04 28d·2.0×	MED	5.0f	turf	Firm	Clm	83	6	7	8.5	F	77	71	42	78	84	86	16.2	Fernando Jara
2025-09-06 13d	MTH	8.5f	turf	Firm	Clm	85	6	6	10.5	S	84	85	94	78	71	88	18.4	Melissa Iorio
2025-08-24 22d	MTH	8.0f	turf	Firm	AOC	87	9	11	7.5	S	66	92	89	79	71	88	13.7	Alexander Crispin
2025-08-02 20d	MTH	5.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	86	10	12	4.8		—	—	—	82	77	88	42.9	Frankie Pennington
2025-07-13	MTH	8.0f	turf	Firm	AOC	87	6	10	3.8		84	86	56	81	74	86	9.8	Jeiron Barbosa

11 Slick Merlin

3F 120 lbs L EP

8.8%

MODEL %

10-1

MODEL FAIR

-5.5

EDGE vs ML

6/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig83 -4 vs par

Needs +10~3% run that

Class84.5 -3.4 vs race -1.6 gap

MC5.6% fair 15-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.36

Faced86.0 +1.9 vs today

Pace EP85.8 best 97.9

Pace LP84.4 best 101.0

Energy0.57

Connections

JockChantal Sutherlandκ 0.14was Charlie Marquez · +0.9

TrnChuck Spinaκ -0.06

J×T22 · 23% win · 50% ITM

Angles

First-time turf 10% -26% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26% Chuck Spina: first-time turf 7% -53%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	7	1	1	14%	84.5
2026	3	0	0	0%	78.6
2025	4	1	1	25%	84.5
MTH	6	1	1	17%	84.5
Turf	2	0	1	0%	83.1
Sprint	6	1	1	17%	84.5
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 06-14 MTH 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 70 05-31 MTH 4 Furlongs :49.60 B 59 04-29 MTH 5 Furlongs 1:01.20 H G 73

SIRESea Wizard 84 85%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-19 29d	MTH	6.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	85	6	9	13.0		—	—	—	76	68	85	25.4	Charlie Marquez
2026-06-20 41d	MTH	5.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	84	4	10	6.8		—	—	—	79	70	84	5.0	Charlie Marquez
2026-05-10 225d·5.5×	MTH	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Alw	86	6	9	15.8		98	nan	101	77	67	85	7.3	Samuel Marin
2025-09-27 41d	DEL	6.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	87	9	9	52.5		88	96	88	58	38	87	14.4	Julio Hernandez
2025-08-17 21d	MTH	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	88	5	6	31.8		85	82	87	75	57	91	5.5	Paco Lopez
2025-07-27 23d	MTH	5.0f	turf	Firm	Stk	89	2	8	2.5	F	90	nan	86	83	75	89	12.7	Paco Lopez
2025-07-04	MTH	5.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	84	1	7	0.0		85	nan	73	84	81	84	1.8	Paco Lopez

4 Lidia Rose

3F 120 lbs L EP

7.6%

MODEL %

12-1

MODEL FAIR

-3.5

EDGE vs ML

8/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig82 -5 vs par

Needs +10~3% run that

Class83.5 -4.4 vs race -2.0 gap

MC5.1% fair 20-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.35

Faced84.2 +0.1 vs today

Pace EP81.9 best 93.1

Pace LP79.0 best 106.4

Energy0.53

Connections

JockRamon Moyaκ -0.08

TrnRory Hustonκ 0.05

J×T16 · 0% win · 25% ITM

Record

	Sts	1st	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	4	1	1	25%	80.6
2026	3	0	1	0%	80.6
2025	1	1	0	100%	78.4
MTH	3	0	1	0%	80.6
Turf	2	1	1	50%	79.4
Sprint	3	1	1	33%	79.4
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

SIRESea Wizard 84 85%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-20 20d	MTH	5.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	84	3	10	6.0		—	—	—	79	72	84	12.1	Ramon Moya
2026-05-31 21d	MTH	8.318181818181818f	dirt	Fast	AOC	84	4	8	10.0		91	89	76	81	80	82	35.2	Ramon Moya
2026-05-10 233d·11.1×	MTH	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Alw	86	8	9	25.2		67	89	106	72	55	87	9.0	Jomar Torres
2025-09-19	MED	5.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	82	1	8	0.0	S	93	91	52	78	62	82	14.5	Jomar Torres

3 Point to That Star

4F 125 lbs L P

5.0%

MODEL %

20-1

MODEL FAIR

-9.3

EDGE vs ML

6/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig80 -7 vs par

Needs +13~<1% run that

Class80.5 -7.4 vs race -0.6 gap

MC5.2% fair 20-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.31

Faced77.1 -7.0 vs today

Pace EP80.5 best 95.9

Pace LP85.4 best 93.3

Energy0.54

Connections

JockLuis Rivera, Jr.κ 0.07was Kendry Rivera · +0.7

TrnJose Delgadoκ 0.24

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	20	1	4	2	5%	82.4
2026	6	1	1	2	17%	77.1
2025	8	0	2	0	0%	79.7
MTH	7	1	1	0	14%	79.2
Turf	9	1	3	0	11%	79.8
Sprint	15	1	3	1	7%	82.4
Wet	0	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 06-21 MTH 3 Furlongs :37.60 B 40 05-16 MTH 4 Furlongs :50.60 B 47 ◆Charlie Hustle·80 05-02 MTH 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 61 04-22 TAM 4 Furlongs :52.80 B 18

SIREFaversham 80 32%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-26 34d	MTH	5.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	77	1	7	0.0	F	96	98	92	77	66	81	8.6	Kendry Rivera
2026-05-23 58d	MTH	8.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	82	6	8	13.8	S	61	83	84	69	62	81	6.9	Luis Rivera, Jr.
2026-03-26 21d	TP	6.5f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	77	2	11	1.2	F	75	87	93	76	70	81	6.14	Walter Rodriguez
2026-03-05 20d	TP	8.0f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	76	3	6	8.2		87	85	89	73	66	82	4.06	Walter Rodriguez
2026-02-13 35d	TP	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	74	3	12	1.5		86	101	86	72	57	82	1.94	Walter Rodriguez
2026-01-09 98d·2.9×	TP	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	77	8	12	7.2		92	79	72	73	64	82	5.92	Walter Rodriguez
2025-10-03 20d	MED	8.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	81	2	7	2.0	F	99	93	102	80	87	81	5.4	Ruben Silvera
2025-09-13 21d	MTH	5.5f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	80	4	7	5.2		—	—	—	77	66	81	6.1	Samy Camacho
2025-08-23 105d·3.1×	MTH	5.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	80	2	6	4.8	S	86	nan	89	79	67	80	9.6	Samy Camacho
2025-05-10	MTH	5.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	82	8	9	14.2	S	89	79	66	75	73	80	19.1	Samuel Marin

9 Golden Ring

5M 123 lbs L P

4.5%

MODEL %

20-1

MODEL FAIR

-9.8

EDGE vs ML

6/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig83 -4 vs par

Needs +10~1% run that

Class84.1 -3.8 vs race -1.1 gap

MC11.2% fair 8-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.32

Faced86.7 +2.6 vs today

Pace EP80.7 best 89.4

Pace LP90.1 best 105.3

Energy0.51

Connections

JockJorge Vargas, Jr.κ 0.02was Luis Rivera, Jr. · -0.5

TrnSergio Rabadanκ -0.12

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	10	1	2	1	10%	83.0
2026	2	0	0	0	0%	81.9
2025	7	1	2	1	14%	83.0
MTH	9	1	2	1	11%	83.0
Turf	6	1	2	1	17%	83.0
Sprint	5	0	1	0	0%	83.0
Wet	0	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-24 MTH 3 Furlongs :36.80 B 44 06-13 MTH 3 Furlongs :36.40 B 47 06-06 MTH 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 61 05-23 MTH 4 Furlongs :49.80 B 56 05-02 MTH 5 Furlongs 1:01.40 B 72

SIREGolden Lad 82 72%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-27 48d	MTH	8.0f	turf	Firm	Stk	87	7	8	9.0	S	79	89	92	82	78	86	27.1	Luis Rivera, Jr.
2026-05-10 226d·6.8×	MTH	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Alw	86	7	9	21.8		81	89	102	70	60	88	32.6	Jose Gomez
2025-09-26 33d	MED	8.5f	turf	Good	AOC	86	8	10	10.5		84	96	105	78	80	88	6.4	Jorge Vargas, Jr.
2025-08-24 22d	MTH	8.0f	turf	Firm	AOC	87	3	11	3.2	S	73	92	103	82	74	87	4.2	Jorge Vargas, Jr.
2025-08-02 22d	MTH	5.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	86	2	12	1.5		—	—	—	83	81	86	17.1	Jorge Vargas, Jr.
2025-07-11 34d	MTH	8.0f	turf	Good	MSW	80	1	7	0.0		89	83	79	80	71	84	2.3	Jorge Vargas, Jr.
2025-06-07 12d	MTH	5.5f	dirt	Good	MSW	80	4	7	2.0	S	92	90	43	79	75	82	4.7	Sonny Leon
2025-05-26 16d	MTH	8.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	81	2	8	5.2	F	85	88	91	77	79	79	31.0	Jomar Torres
2025-05-10 258d·7.8×	MTH	5.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	81	8	11	11.0		100	83	35	77	77	76	26.5	Jomar Torres
2024-08-25	MTH	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	85	8	10	17.8	F	80	82	86	73	58	84	13.1	Madison Olver

8 Eazy Whirled

4F 123 lbs L S

3.7%

MODEL %

25-1

MODEL FAIR

-18.5

EDGE vs ML

7/2

M/L

Form

Proj Fig86 -1 vs par

Needs +2~30% run that

Class85.7 -2.2 vs race -0.2 gap

MC17.0% fair 5-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.31

Faced83.7 -0.4 vs today

Pace EP84.3 best 103.1

Pace LP77.0 best 97.0

Energy0.52

Connections

JockCharlie Marquezκ 0.05was Jomar Torres · +0.1

TrnSergio Rabadanκ -0.12

J×T6 · 17% win · 33% ITM

Record

	Sts	1st	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	16	1	6	6%	86.7
2026	4	0	4	0%	86.7
2025	7	1	1	14%	82.7
MTH	9	1	2	11%	86.7
Turf	6	0	3	0%	86.7
Sprint	9	1	1	11%	82.7
Wet	1	0	0	0%	79.2

WORKS 05-23 MTH 4 Furlongs :49.80 B 58 ★05-10 MTH 4 Furlongs :48.00 H 73 ★03-25 TAM 3 Furlongs :37.00 B G 42 03-15 TAM 4 Furlongs :50.60 B 44

SIREHard Spun 84 86%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-27 27d	MTH	8.0f	turf	Firm	Stk	87	3	8	1.2	S	65	94	97	87	86	86	10.2	Jomar Torres
2026-05-31 42d	MTH	8.318181818181818f	dirt	Fast	AOC	84	3	8	8.5		80	77	16	82	81	86	11.2	Charlie Marquez
2026-04-19 11d	TAM	8.5f	turf	Firm	Clm	82	3	10	1.0	F	100	94	93	85	81	85	2.5	Sonny Leon
2026-04-08 179d·6.9×	TAM	8.181818181818182f	dirt	Fast	Clm	81	3	8	4.2		86	85	74	82	81	85	1.6	Sonny Leon
2025-10-11 15d	MED	8.0f	turf	Good	Clm	84	3	9	1.8		103	97	96	82	76	85	24.5	Lane Luzzi
2025-09-26 19d	MED	8.5f	turf	Good	AOC	86	6	10	8.0		83	nan	94	80	82	84	66.9	Ramon Moya
2025-09-07 14d	MTH	8.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	Clm	86	4	6	9.5	S	85	86	94	79	73	85	6.7	Ramon Moya
2025-08-24 37d	MTH	6.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	85	5	7	9.5	S	72	95	91	82	77	84	41.0	Ramon Moya
2025-07-18 26d	MTH	6.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	84	9	10	13.0	F	92	82	88	78	74	84	77.5	Ramon Moya
2025-06-22	MTH	5.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	84	7	10	6.2		—	—	—	77	71	82	45.9	Ramon Moya

6 Air Masque

5M 123 lbs L EP

3.1%

MODEL %

30-1

MODEL FAIR

-8.0

EDGE vs ML

8/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig78 -9 vs par

Needs +10~1% run that

Class86.5 -1.4 vs race -8.2 gap

MC4.1% fair 25-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.38

Faced82.8 -1.3 vs today

Pace EP83.8 best 95.0

Pace LP85.6 best 96.5

Energy0.52

Connections

JockMelissa Iorioκ 0.1was Jose Gomez · +0.5

TrnBenjamin Perkins, Jr.κ 0.36

J×T10 · 30% win · 60% ITM

Angles

Benjamin Perkins, Jr.: 2nd off layoff 14% -15% 2nd off layoff 13% -27%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	13	1	4	2	8%	83.5
2026	1	0	0	0	0%	74.0
2025	4	1	1	1	25%	81.5
MTH	8	1	4	0	12%	83.5
Turf	11	1	3	2	9%	83.4
Sprint	11	1	3	2	9%	83.5
Wet	0	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-16 MTH Four Furlongs 48.00 h 70 ★06-30 MTH 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 62 06-09 MTH 4 Furlongs :51.00 B 39 05-29 MTH 4 Furlongs :47.00 H G 82 ★05-13 MTH 4 Furlongs :48.20 B 69 ★05-06 DEL 3 Furlongs :37.00 B 44

SIREAir Force Blue 82 72%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-20 253d·9.0×	MTH	5.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	84	6	10	11.0		—	—	—	74	65	87	5.8	Jose Gomez
2025-10-10 48d	MED	5.0f	turf	Firm	AOC	86	5	11	4.2		67	88	96	77	74	86	1.9	Christian Maragh
2025-08-23 24d	MTH	5.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	80	1	6	0.0	S	89	83	85	82	73	86	0.1	Melissa Iorio
2025-07-30 19d	CNL	5.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	84	3	10	3.0		92	93	94	78	79	85	7.5	Christian Maragh
2025-07-11 307d·11.0×	MTH	8.0f	turf	Good	MSW	81	2	8	2.0		88	89	89	80	71	84	1.7	Melissa Iorio
2024-09-07 13d	MTH	5.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	81	4	8	4.8		—	—	—	81	73	86	1.2	Samuel Marin
2024-08-25 50d	MTH	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	85	5	10	8.2	F	95	81	80	80	70	86	2.6	Samuel Marin
2024-07-06 28d	MTH	5.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	83	2	9	0.2	F	87	nan	75	82	85	86	1.4	Samuel Marin
2024-06-08 21d	MTH	5.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	84	2	10	3.0	F	nan	nan	62	81	79	86	2.4	Samuel Marin
2024-05-18	MTH	5.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	80	2	8	1.5	F	90	nan	91	84	76	84	8.4	Samuel Marin

7 Starview Twinkle

6M 123 lbs L EP

2.5%

MODEL %

30-1

MODEL FAIR

-8.6

EDGE vs ML

8/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig86 -1 vs par

Needs +9~2% run that

Class83.2 -4.7 vs race +2.5 gap

MC19.3% fair 4-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.33

Faced86.3 +2.2 vs today

Pace EP84.8 best 91.9

Pace LP78.4 best 85.4

Energy0.53

Connections

JockJose Ferrerκ 0.09

TrnJoseph Mazzaκ -0.1

J×T4 · 0% win · 25% ITM

Angles

First-time turf 10% -26% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26% Jose Ferrer / Joseph Mazza 8% -29% Joseph Mazza: first-time turf 6% -21%

Record

	Sts	1st	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	14	2	1	14%	83.4
2026	3	0	1	0%	83.4
2025	9	2	0	22%	82.9
MTH	8	2	1	25%	83.4
Turf	6	1	0	17%	83.4
Sprint	11	1	1	9%	83.4
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-18 MTH 3 Furlongs :36.60 B 49 ★06-17 MTH 3 Furlongs :37.20 B 44 05-17 MTH 4 Furlongs :50.20 B G 47 05-09 MTH 4 Furlongs :51.40 B 36

SIREHonorable Dillon 79 27%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-24 14d	MTH	6.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	85	6	6	15.5	F	—	—	—	75	70	84	23.7	Jose Ferrer
2026-07-10 14d	MTH	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	84	3	5	9.5	S	81	nan	80	77	73	84	3.1	Jose Ferrer
2026-06-26 280d·12.7×	MTH	5.0f	turf	Firm	Str Alw	87	4	7	11.2		91	76	65	83	73	85	18.7	Christian Maragh
2025-09-19 26d	MED	8.5f	turf	Firm	Alw	86	4	8	1.8	S	83	72	85	81	79	84	16.2	Christian Maragh
2025-08-24 16d	MTH	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	90	6	10	5.2	F	92	81	76	83	81	82	69.9	Christian Maragh
2025-08-08 26d	MTH	8.5f	turf	Firm	Alw	86	8	8	16.8	F	91	nan	80	74	71	84	16.9	Christian Maragh
2025-07-13 22d	MTH	8.0f	turf	Firm	AOC	87	1	10	0.0		82	65	32	82	78	80	31.7	Christian Maragh
2025-06-21 113d·5.1×	MTH	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	80	1	7	0.0	F	86	nan	94	81	84	80	11.4	Christian Maragh
2025-02-28 21d	TAM	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	79	7	9	4.0	F	82	69	65	80	78	81	14.0	Melissa Iorio
2025-02-07	TAM	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	78	5	8	12.2	F	90	83	89	74	64	84	2.7	Jose Ferrer

2 Life Raft

3F 120 lbs L P

0.8%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-2.4

EDGE vs ML

30/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig78 -9 vs par

Needs +17~<1% run that

Class77.3 -10.6 vs race +0.9 gap

MC2.3% fair 50-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.37

Faced82.5 -1.6 vs today

Pace EP86.8 best 96.6

Pace LP85.1 best 107.8

Energy0.56

Connections

JockDalila Riveraκ 0.08was Kendry Rivera · +0.8

TrnJoann Bertoneκ 0.08

Record

	Sts	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	5	1	0%	78.2
2026	4	0	0%	73.2
2025	1	1	0%	78.2
MTH	4	0	0%	73.2
Turf	2	1	0%	78.2
Sprint	4	1	0%	78.2
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 06-20 MTH 3 Furlongs :37.00 B 44 05-02 MTH 4 Furlongs :49.20 B G 63 04-24 PRX 4 Furlongs :52.61 B 21 04-19 PRX 4 Furlongs :53.86 B 14

SIREMaximum Security 84 84%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-12 16d	MTH	5.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	84	6	7	11.0		—	—	—	73	59	77	45.9	Kendry Rivera
2026-06-26 34d	MTH	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	81	10	12	20.2	F	88	nan	76	70	64	77	107.9	Kendry Rivera
2026-05-23 14d	MTH	8.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	82	7	8	21.0	S	95	80	82	66	56	78	28.9	Kendry Rivera
2026-05-09 232d·6.8×	MTH	6.0f	dirt	Fast (Sealed)	MSW	84	6	6	32.2		88	101	108	66	44	79	30.6	Felix Vasquez, Jr.
2025-09-19	MED	5.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	82	3	8	1.0	S	97	86	90	78	61	82	21.6	Charlie Marquez