MTH 2026-08-01 — Intermediate

TRACKS · 2026-08-01

CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO

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R1 One And T R2 Six Furl D R3 One Mile D R4 Six Furl D R5 Five And T R6 One Mile D R7 Five And T R8 One Mile D

Model's top 3

#1 PICK

6 Rachel Caroline ★ HIGH_CONF

39.4% win prob fair 3-2 M/L 3/1

#2 PICK

7 Bee N Dee

30.0% win prob fair 5-2 M/L 2/1

#3 PICK

1 Sexpectations

10.2% win prob fair 9-1 M/L 8/1

Pace Projector LONE SPEED front favored 1st¼ 24.1s par 24.1 EP/LP

ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 4 LS★ » 97/100 Kathleen's Derby 7 C★ »» 107/106 Bee N Dee 3 96/100 Charlize Chub 5 » 94/92 Hipatia 1 91/96 Sexpectations 2 108/98 First Hathor 6 » 90/100 Rachel Caroline

On the lead: 4 · race sets up for front

6 Rachel Caroline ★ HIGH_CONF

8M L 122 lbs Post 6 J: Chantal Sutherland T: James Frangella, Jr. C

81.4

Proj Fig

39.4%

Model %

3-2

Fair

3/1

M/L

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	CLASS	EP	MP	FIG	LP	POS	BL	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-10	MTH	8.318181818181818f	dirt	Fast	Claiming	86	76	81.2	91	2.0/5	4.8	9.2	Chantal Sutherland
2026-06-14	MTH	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Claiming	86	nan	77.1	86	5.0/8	8.0	32.4	Chantal Sutherland
2026-05-17	MTH	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Claiming	63	55	77.3	60	5.0/7	7.0	7.6	Chantal Sutherland
2025-10-17	MED	8.5f	turf	Firm	Claiming	90	87	71.1	100	9.0/10	24.0	22.4	Lane Luzzi
2025-09-07	MTH	6.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	Claiming	85	nan	78.5	77	3.0/6	2.5	3.2	Madison Olver

7 Bee N Dee

4F L 122 lbs Post 7 J: Edwin Gonzalez T: Jose Sanchez P

85.9

Proj Fig

30.0%

Model %

5-2

Fair

2/1

M/L

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	CLASS	EP	MP	FIG	LP	POS	BL	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-10	MTH	8.318181818181818f	dirt	Fast	Claiming	88	nan	83.5	88	3.0/5	4.8	1.7	Luis Rivera, Jr.
2026-06-14	MTH	8.318181818181818f	dirt	Fast	Claiming	77	79	85.4	106	2.0/6	2.5	0.6	Paco Lopez
2026-05-24	MTH	8.5f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	Claiming	93	87	80.3	88	5.0/8	8.5	16.3	Charlie Marquez
2026-05-16	MTH	8.5f	dirt	Fast	Claiming	107	90	81.1	76	2.0/5	9.5	0.7	Luis Rivera, Jr.
2026-04-05	GP	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Claiming	85	87	83.8	104	3.0/6	3.8	2.3	Paco Lopez

1 Sexpectations

4F L 122 lbs Post 1 J: Pedro Cotto, Jr. T: Riquelvis Grullon S

75.1

Proj Fig

10.2%

Model %

9-1

Fair

8/1

M/L

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	CLASS	EP	MP	FIG	LP	POS	BL	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-19	MTH	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Claiming	—	—	76.7	—	4.0/6	7.5	31.4	Angel Morales
2026-07-10	MTH	8.318181818181818f	dirt	Fast	Claiming	83	86	73.7	88	4.0/5	19.5	22.4	Carlos Rojas
2026-06-14	MTH	8.318181818181818f	dirt	Fast	Claiming	82	79	71.8	86	5.0/6	23.2	12.8	Luis Ocasio
2026-06-07	MTH	8.5f	turf	Firm	Claiming	68	83	76.1	96	6.0/9	10.8	36.3	Jorge Gonzalez
2026-05-16	MTH	8.5f	dirt	Fast	Claiming	91	nan	68.3	86	5.0/5	40.5	3.0	Jose Gomez

3 Charlize Chub

6M L 113 lbs Post 3 J: Noel Herman T: Tony Wilson EP

74.8

Proj Fig

10.0%

Model %

9-1

Fair

12/1

M/L

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	CLASS	EP	MP	FIG	LP	POS	BL	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-25	MTH	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Claiming	—	—	73.9	—	4.0/6	10.0	24.5	Luis Ocasio
2026-07-05	MTH	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Claiming	85	78	74.4	76	5.0/7	7.2	38.0	Luis Ocasio
2025-11-28	PEN	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Claiming	83	88	73.0	81	6.0/6	18.8	25.2	Raul Mena
2025-11-19	PEN	8.318181818181818f	dirt	Fast	Claiming	88	92	72.5	92	4.0/7	21.0	16.6	Adam Bowman
2025-10-18	DEL	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Claiming	96	91	75.2	100	6.0/10	3.2	11.9	Adam Bowman

2 First Hathor

3F L 119 lbs Post 2 J: Luis Rivera, Jr. T: Kathleen O'Connell S

80.4

Proj Fig

5.5%

Model %

15-1

Fair

7/2

M/L

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	CLASS	EP	MP	FIG	LP	POS	BL	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-07	MTH	8.5f	turf	Firm	Claiming	72	90	69.8	96	8.0/9	24.2	49.5	Pedro Cotto, Jr.
2026-04-26	TAM	8.181818181818182f	dirt	Fast	Mdn_Clm_3yo	84	88	80.6	91	1.0/5	0.0	1.7	Samuel Marin
2026-04-12	TAM	8.181818181818182f	dirt	Fast	Mdn_Clm_3yo	97	95	78.2	90	4.0/7	7.0	2.5	Samuel Marin
2026-03-01	TAM	8.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn_Clm_3yo	108	90	78.7	81	4.0/8	13.0	23.0	Charlie Marquez
2026-02-08	TAM	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn_Clm_3yo	91	105	76.7	98	4.0/7	11.8	9.2	Charlie Marquez

4 Kathleen's Derby

3F L 119 lbs Post 4 J: Melissa Iorio T: Kathleen O'Connell EP

75.9

Proj Fig

3.1%

Model %

30-1

Fair

4/1

M/L

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	CLASS	EP	MP	FIG	LP	POS	BL	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-14	MTH	8.318181818181818f	dirt	Fast	Claiming	76	87	69.1	94	6.0/6	37.5	3.0	Samuel Marin
2026-05-02	TAM	8.181818181818182f	dirt	Sloppy	Mdn_Clm_3yo	65	82	78.7	68	1.0/6	0.0	1.1	Samuel Marin
2026-04-22	TAM	8.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn_Clm_3yo	97	75	71.8	58	5.0/9	7.2	3.7	Hector Diaz, Jr.
2026-03-15	TAM	8.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn_Clm_3yo	91	98	76.6	100	3.0/10	2.2	6.1	Sonny Leon
2026-02-21	TAM	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn_Clm_3yo	67	72	72.3	60	5.0/8	11.8	2.9	Sonny Leon

5 Hipatia

5M L 120 lbs Post 5 J: Charlie Marquez T: Holly Harris S

77.0

Proj Fig

1.8%

Model %

50-1

Fair

20/1

M/L

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	CLASS	EP	MP	FIG	LP	POS	BL	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-10	MTH	8.318181818181818f	dirt	Fast	Claiming	89	83	69.7	82	5.0/5	31.8	21.1	Charlie Marquez
2026-06-14	MTH	8.318181818181818f	dirt	Fast	Claiming	86	87	74.6	92	4.0/6	19.2	15.6	Charlie Marquez
2026-05-16	MTH	8.5f	dirt	Fast	Claiming	94	97	76.7	84	4.0/5	15.0	13.8	Charlie Marquez
2025-10-08	DEL	8.0f	dirt	Good	Claiming	84	nan	75.8	86	3.0/7	3.2	3.7	Jorge Gonzalez
2025-09-27	MED	8.0f	turf	Firm	Claiming	79	79	77.1	89	5.0/12	7.0	42.6	Jorge Gonzalez