EMD 2026-08-01 · US Racing

TRACKS · 2026-08-01

CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO

▸ How to read a horse block

MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σ_α. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.

R1 D R2 D R3 D R4 D R5 D R6 D R7 D R8 D

EMD 2026-08-01 Six Furlongs DIRT

strength

+1.1 fair

win par

fig to beat

HONEST PACE

shape

HONEST

early pace

1st¼ 22.6s / par 22.6

BALANCED

field

figs 75.5–83.1

FIG CLUSTER

low edge

consider passing

Purse $9,500. Six Furlongs. (Includes $1,900 – MITEC - Muckleshoot Tribal Contribution). For Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races. Three Year Olds, 121 Lbs.; Older, 125 Lbs. Non-winners Of A Race In 2026 Allowed 3 Lbs. Claiming Price $5,000, if for $4,000, allowed 3 Lbs.

TODAY'S CONTENDERS		WIN% · FAIR / ML	QIK%	STY	P1C	CLASS	PROJ	COND	LAST	SUS	J×T
1	White Peony ✓	18% 9-2 / 7/5	27.4%	P	4th/1w	81 +1.7	76⁴-6	77³	75³	96²	rte→spr▼cls	0%	⚠-1.62∠
2	Betty Lute ✓	17% 5-1 / 10/1	11.4%	P	1st/1w	78 -1.3	77³-5	76⁴	74⁴	91³	L1rte→spr	—	⚠-1.62∠
3	Drewy ✓	13% 6-1 / 4/1	15.1%	P	2nd/1w	79 -0.5	76⁴-6	74⁵	74⁴	89⁴	L3▲cls	—	⚠-1.61∠
4	Savita ✓	35% 9-5 / 5/1	22.2%	S	5th/1w	80 +1.1	80²-2	80²	80²	98¹	L1	17%	★PRIME2∠
5	Janey ✓	16% 5-1 / 9/5	24.0%	P	3rd/1w	82 +2.7	83¹+1	82¹	81¹	84⁵	CLMT-2.5rte→spr▲cls	23%	⚠-2.81∠

Pace Projector HONEST PACE 1st¼ 22.6s par 22.6 EP/LP

ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 2 HOLDS C★ 92/109 Betty Lute 3 98/103 Drewy 5 95/89 Janey 1 103/98 White Peony 4 106/90 Savita

4 Savita ★ PRIME

5M 122 lbs L S

35.1%

MODEL %

9-5

MODEL FAIR

+18.4

EDGE vs ML

5/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig80 -2 vs par

Needs +4~14% run that

Class80.5 +1.1 vs race -0.8 gap

MC25.6% fair 3-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.3

Faced79.7 -0.8 vs today

Pace EP87.8 best 106.3

Pace LP81.7 best 89.7

Energy0.51

Connections

JockAlex Cruzκ 0.07was Kevin Krigger · -0.3

TrnAlan Bozellκ -0.01

J×T6 · 17% win · 33% ITM

Angles

Alex Cruz / Alan Bozell 28% +118% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	10	1	2	2	10%	81.5
2026	2	0	0	1	0%	80.4
2025	6	1	1	0	17%	81.5
EMD	10	1	2	2	10%	81.5
Dirt	10	1	2	2	10%	81.5
Sprint	7	0	1	2	0%	80.4
Wet	1	0	0	0	0%	80.4

WORKS ★07-25 EMD 5 Furlongs 1:00.00 B 68 07-19 EMD 4 Furlongs :48.00 B 57 05-02 EMD 5 Furlongs 1:03.00 B 34 ★04-26 EMD 4 Furlongs :47.40 H 64

SIRECupid 83 76%ile turf 14%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-05-25 16d	EMD	6.5f	dirt	Wet Fast	Clm	81	4	8	8.0	F	106	88	90	80	81	81	8.43	Kevin Krigger
2026-05-09 252d·12.0×	EMD	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	78	3	6	2.0	F	92	81	67	77	69	80	3.67	Alex Cruz
2025-08-30 8d	EMD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	79	2	7	5.0		90	90	89	78	79	79	5.04	Francisco Duran
2025-08-22 21d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	80	5	10	10.0	F	94	91	83	77	74	80	12.52	Francisco Duran
2025-08-01 34d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	81	4	9	3.0	F	81	83	84	77	67	79	42.08	Blake Nunnally
2025-06-28 15d	EMD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	79	5	7	9.2		70	92	90	79	75	79	2.1	Julien Couton
2025-06-13 34d	EMD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	74	1	7	0.0		89	80	58	82	78	78	0.65	Julien Couton
2025-05-10 245d·11.7×	EMD	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	75	4	8	3.0	F	94	nan	84	79	72	78	1.19	Julien Couton
2024-09-07 7d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	75	2	5	4.5		69	92	100	79	73	80	1.88	Jose Zunino
2024-08-31	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	73	3	8	1.0	F	90	94	86	79	66	76	4.67	Jose Zunino

1 White Peony

4F 125 lbs L P

17.8%

MODEL %

9-2

MODEL FAIR

-23.9

EDGE vs ML

7/5

M/L

Form

Proj Fig76 -6 vs par

Needs +8~2% run that

Class81.1 +1.7 vs race -5.6 gap

MC8.9% fair 10-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.18

Faced79.1 -1.4 vs today

Pace EP85.2 best 102.9

Pace LP80.4 best 98.0

Energy0.53

Connections

JockKevin Orozcoκ 0.02

TrnAlexis Silva-Martinezκ 0.02

J×T15 · 0% win · 20% ITM

Angles

Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23% Kevin Orozco / Alexis Silva-Martinez 3% -93%

Record

	Sts	1st	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	8	2	2	25%	79.2
2026	7	2	2	29%	79.2
2025	1	0	0	0%	72.0
EMD	4	1	1	25%	76.9
Dirt	8	2	2	25%	79.2
Sprint	4	0	1	0%	76.7
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS ★05-07 EMD 3 Furlongs :36.40 B 44 04-30 EMD 3 Furlongs :37.00 B 37 03-31 TUP 4 Furlongs :48.80 H 47 03-08 TUP 4 Furlongs :47.40 H 60

SIRETwirling Candy 84 86%ile turf 18%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-28 16d	EMD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Str Alw	84	7	7	7.2		93	nan	98	75	73	80	25.75	Kevin Orozco
2026-06-12 12d	EMD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	78	1	5	0.0		77	81	84	77	79	79	6.45	Kevin Orozco
2026-05-31 14d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	78	3	6	7.2	F	69	80	62	71	62	79	12.56	Kevin Orozco
2026-05-17 34d	EMD	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	78	4	6	9.2		99	93	82	75	72	79	1.67	Adrian Castellanos
2026-04-13 28d	TUP	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	78	3	8	1.8	F	103	nan	76	79	73	77	3.3	Geovanni Franco
2026-03-16 63d·2.2×	TUP	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	77	1	5	0.0		80	83	72	77	70	75	2.0	Geovanni Franco
2026-01-12 262d·9.4×	TUP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn	80	7	7	9.0	S	83	90	106	77	59	73	3.1	Orlando Mojica
2025-04-25	LS	6.0f	dirt	Good	MSW	81	5	5	24.5	S	68	90	99	72	56	81	4.9	Luis Reyes

2 Betty Lute

5M 122 lbs L P

17.3%

MODEL %

5-1

MODEL FAIR

+8.2

EDGE vs ML

10/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig77 -5 vs par

Needs +7~4% run that

Class78.1 -1.3 vs race -1.2 gap

MC12.8% fair 7-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.28

Faced78.7 -1.8 vs today

Pace EP84.1 best 91.7

Pace LP85.4 best 108.5

Energy0.56

Connections

JockBlake Nunnallyκ 0.1was Kiaman McGregor · +0.3

TrnRosie Simkinsκ 0.02

Angles

1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% Rosie Simkins: off layoff (60d+) 6% -47%

Record

	Sts	1st	Win%	Fig
Life	8	2	25%	77.6
2026	0	0	—	—
2025	3	1	33%	76.0
EMD	8	2	25%	77.6
Dirt	8	2	25%	77.6
Sprint	6	2	33%	77.6
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-26 EMD 4 Furlongs :50.40 B 37 07-13 EMD 5 Furlongs 1:01.80 B 50 07-06 EMD 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 52 06-19 EMD 3 Furlongs :38.40 B 27 04-19 EMD 4 Furlongs :48.00 B 63

SIRELutes Gift 76 7%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2025-07-12 29d	EMD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	79	6	9	13.0		82	89	99	74	71	79	11.98	Kiaman McGregor
2025-06-13 20d	EMD	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	80	1	8	0.0	F	90	82	56	76	70	77	23.96	Kiaman McGregor
2025-05-24 281d·10.4×	EMD	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	78	8	10	6.5	F	91	91	108	76	76	76	50.28	Akatsuki Tomita
2024-08-16 27d	EMD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	78	5	7	23.0	F	77	82	86	63	45	78	14.03	Alex Cruz
2024-07-20 20d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	78	6	9	9.5	F	92	94	93	69	62	78	20.93	Alex Cruz
2024-06-30 308d·11.4×	EMD	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	82	6	6	15.8	F	82	nan	104	70	68	81	10.54	Silvio Amador
2023-08-27 16d	EMD	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Stk	82	6	10	18.5	F	95	90	77	71	49	83	13.6	Luis Negron
2023-08-11	EMD	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	78	1	6	0.0	F	91	nan	72	78	66	78	2.8	Luis Negron

5 Janey

4F 125 lbs L P

16.5%

MODEL %

5-1

MODEL FAIR

-19.2

EDGE vs ML

9/5

M/L

Form

Proj Fig83 +1 vs par

Needs +1~40% run that

Class82.1 +2.7 vs race +1.0 gap

MC40.7% fair 3-2

ConfTIGHT σα 0.23

Faced77.3 -3.2 vs today

Pace EP86.3 best 94.8

Pace LP77.8 best 88.7

Energy0.53

Connections

JockSilvio Amadorκ 0.14

TrnAlexis Silva-Martinezκ 0.02CLAIMEDwas Tim McCanna · -2.5

J×T22 · 23% win · 50% ITM

Angles

Silvio Amador / Alexis Silva-Martinez 24% -32%

Record

	Sts	1st	Win%	Fig
Life	4	2	50%	81.9
2026	4	2	50%	81.9
2025	0	0	—	—
EMD	4	2	50%	81.9
Dirt	4	2	50%	81.9
Sprint	3	1	33%	81.9
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-05 EMD 5 Furlongs 1:00.60 B 63 06-29 EMD 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 55 05-24 EMD 5 Furlongs 1:01.40 B 53 05-03 EMD 5 Furlongs 1:01.00 B G 58 04-26 EMD 5 Furlongs 1:02.00 B 44 04-18 EMD 5 Furlongs 1:03.40 B 40 ◆Southern Anton·87

SIREHit It A Bomb 81 55%ile turf 11%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-11 28d	EMD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	77	1	6	0.0	F	90	76	77	81	68	81	1.7	Silvio Amador
2026-06-13 14d	EMD	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	78	4	9	6.2	F	90	89	82	82	77	80	18.81	Karlo Lopez
2026-05-30 20d	EMD	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	79	5	9	8.5	F	95	85	56	81	71	81	26.0	Alex Cruz
2026-05-10	EMD	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	75	1	8	0.0		88	80	89	81	72	76	2.19	Karlo Lopez

3 Drewy

5M 122 lbs L P

13.3%

MODEL %

6-1

MODEL FAIR

-6.7

EDGE vs ML

4/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig76 -6 vs par

Needs +8~2% run that

Class78.9 -0.5 vs race -3.1 gap

MC11.9% fair 7-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.3

Faced79.4 -1.1 vs today

Pace EP85.4 best 98.3

Pace LP86.9 best 103.3

Energy0.55

Connections

JockKevin Kriggerκ 0.1

TrnDale Kolerκ -0.1

Angles

3rd off layoff 14% -22%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	26	2	2	3	8%	83.1
2026	2	0	1	0	0%	74.2
2025	11	0	1	2	0%	78.2
EMD	14	1	1	0	7%	80.2
Dirt	21	1	2	2	5%	80.2
Sprint	25	2	2	3	8%	83.1
Wet	1	0	0	0	0%	72.3

WORKS 07-20 EMD 4 Furlongs :48.40 B 62 05-25 EMD 4 Furlongs :48.20 B 61 05-11 EMD 5 Furlongs 1:00.60 B 62 05-04 EMD 4 Furlongs :48.60 B 52 04-26 EMD 4 Furlongs :49.80 B 40 04-18 EMD 3 Furlongs :36.20 B 48

SIRETapizar 82 69%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-19 14d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	78	2	4	6.0		98	79	81	74	68	78	3.47	Kevin Krigger
2026-06-05 271d·11.8×	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Wet Fast	Clm	79	4	5	8.2	F	83	94	103	72	60	78	12.54	Silvio Amador
2025-09-07 57d·2.5×	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	80	6	9	6.8	F	85	80	nan	74	70	78	27.0	Chel-c Bailey
2025-07-12 27d	EMD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	79	8	9	17.2		80	90	92	73	68	79	37.55	Chel-c Bailey
2025-06-15 14d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	81	7	8	9.0	F	98	86	92	74	69	80	44.68	Julien Couton
2025-06-01 33d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	83	6	6	10.0		103	94	100	74	66	80	17.62	Kiaman McGregor
2025-04-29 12d	TUP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	81	3	8	0.5	F	77	101	103	78	76	79	23.2	Kiaman McGregor
2025-04-17 22d	TUP	5.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	81	3	5	5.2	F	86	91	83	77	74	79	20.8	Kiaman McGregor
2025-03-26 23d	TUP	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	80	9	10	10.8	F	93	86	84	75	67	79	28.5	Kiaman McGregor
2025-03-03	TUP	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	80	6	8	11.2	F	95	92	70	74	61	80	2.4	Kevin Krigger