EMD 2026-08-01 · US Racing

TRACKS · 2026-08-01

CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO

▸ How to read a horse block

MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σ_α. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.

R1 D R2 D R3 D R4 D R5 D R6 D R7 D R8 D

Purse $14,000. One Mile. (Includes $2,800 – MITEC - Muckleshoot Tribal Contribution). For Three Year Olds And Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races. Three Year Olds, 121 Lbs.; Older, 125 Lbs. Non-winners Of A Race At A Mile Or Over In 2026 Allowed 3 Lbs. Claiming Price $15,000, if for $12,500, allowed 3 Lbs.

TODAY'S CONTENDERS		WIN% · FAIR / ML	QIK%	STY	P1C	CLASS	PROJ	COND	LAST	SUS	J×T
1	Lucky Code ✓	34% 9-5 / 7/2	24.7%	EP	3rd/1w	84 +3.2	80²-3	84²	79³	—	L3	—	★PRIME1∠
2	Bluegrass Lent	11% 8-1 / 5/2	18.3%	P	5th/1w	82 +1.8	80²-3	83³	79³	—		15%	1∠
3	Let's Go Champ ✓	21% 7-2 / 6/1	15.5%	EP	1st/1w	80 -0.2	80²-3	85¹	80²	91¹	L2J+0.6▼cls	25%	✓+1.61∠
4	Fortyshadesoftiger ✓	7% 15-1 / 8/1	8.2%	P	4th/1w	81 +0.4	79⁵-4	82⁴	76⁵	—		12%	1∠
5	Creative Union ✓	27% 5-2 / 6/5	33.2%	P	2nd/1w	82 +1.3	82¹-1	82⁴	82¹	—	★gold	—	✓+1.1

Pace Projector SPEED DUEL closers favored 1st¼ 23.7s par 24.1 EP/LP

ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 3 102/102 Let's Go Champ 5 LP 91/117 Creative Union 1 95/109 Lucky Code 4 101/94 Fortyshadesoftiger 2 97/104 Bluegrass Lent

On the lead: 3, 5 · race sets up for closers

1 Lucky Code ★ PRIME

6G 122 lbs L EP

34.4%

MODEL %

9-5

MODEL FAIR

+12.2

EDGE vs ML

7/2

M/L

Form

Proj Fig80 -3 vs par

Needs +1~40% run that

Class83.8 +3.2 vs race -4.0 gap

MC21.1% fair 7-2

ConfNORMAL σα 0.33

Faced83.5 +1.6 vs today

Pace EP80.8 best 94.9

Pace LP89.3 best 109.4

Energy0.53

Connections

JockBlake Nunnallyκ 0.1

TrnScott Freemanκ -0.02

Angles

3rd off layoff 14% -22%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	21	2	4	2	10%	88.9
2026	2	0	0	1	0%	79.2
2025	6	1	2	0	17%	88.9
EMD	14	1	2	2	7%	86.7
Dirt	15	1	2	2	7%	86.7
Route	7	1	2	1	14%	88.5
Wet	0	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS ★06-19 EMD 3 Furlongs :36.00 B 44 06-12 EMD 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 47 ◆River Dance·83 06-05 EMD 5 Furlongs 1:01.00 B 62 05-29 EMD 4 Furlongs :47.80 B 61 05-22 EMD 4 Furlongs :49.60 B 42 05-15 EMD 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 49

SIREHonor Code 84 82%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-18 22d	EMD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	82	3	4	4.8		—	—	—	79	75	84	4.88	Blake Nunnally
2026-06-26 327d·12.1×	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	82	5	5	10.0		68	92	109	79	69	85	3.85	Blake Nunnally
2025-08-03 51d	EMD	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	82	2	8	0.8	F	84	81	105	87	86	85	6.74	Alex Cruz
2025-06-13 73d·2.7×	EMD	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	85	6	7	9.8	F	nan	nan	84	86	92	86	9.18	Alex Cruz
2025-04-01 27d	TUP	8.0f	turf	Firm	AOC	86	2	7	0.8		95	nan	85	87	88	86	6.2	Manuel Americano
2025-03-05 21d	TUP	7.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	86	4	8	3.8	F	79	90	91	85	87	85	2.5	Manuel Americano
2025-02-12 36d	TUP	7.5f	turf	Firm	Stk	88	6	7	9.8	F	93	94	85	89	96	86	26.5	Manuel Americano
2025-01-07 21d	TUP	7.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	84	1	8	0.0	F	80	101	105	85	87	85	1.8	Manuel Americano
2024-12-17 20d	TUP	8.0f	turf	Firm	AOC	83	2	10	0.8		86	92	90	88	93	84	25.0	Manuel Americano
2024-11-27	TUP	7.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	82	5	7	2.0	F	87	82	87	86	96	83	6.4	Manuel Americano

5 Creative Union

4G 125 lbs L P

27.0%

MODEL %

5-2

MODEL FAIR

-18.5

EDGE vs ML

6/5

M/L

Form

Proj Fig82 -1 vs par

Needs +1~40% run that

Class81.9 +1.3 vs race -0.2 gap

MC22.2% fair 7-2

ConfTIGHT σα 0.28

Faced82.9 +1.0 vs today

Pace EP78.1 best 90.8

Pace LP89.2 best 117.3

Energy0.54

Connections

JockKevin Orozcoκ 0.02

TrnPatty Leaneyκ 0.05

Record

	Sts	1st	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	9	2	1	22%	83.0
2026	3	1	0	33%	82.9
2025	6	1	1	17%	83.0
EMD	3	1	0	33%	82.9
Dirt	9	2	1	22%	83.0
Route	4	2	0	50%	82.4
Wet	3	0	1	0%	81.8

WORKS 05-24 EMD 5 Furlongs 1:00.60 B 60 ★05-09 EMD 5 Furlongs :59.20 B 80 05-01 EMD 5 Furlongs 1:00.00 B 74 04-25 EMD 4 Furlongs :47.00 H 65

SIREUnified 82 67%ile turf 11%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-18 27d	EMD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	82	1	4	0.0		—	—	—	82	79	80	4.02	Kevin Orozco
2026-06-21 14d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	82	5	6	10.2	F	90	nan	88	83	88	81	11.72	Alex Cruz
2026-06-07 232d·8.6×	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	82	6	6	6.2	F	56	84	96	81	76	80	14.95	Alex Cruz
2025-10-18 35d	HST	6.5f	dirt	Sloppy	Alw	82	5	5	15.0	F	60	94	110	81	78	82	26.35	Christopher Mamdeen
2025-09-13 7d	HST	9.0f	dirt	Fast	G3	87	9	9	19.5	F	91	100	117	78	79	82	31.75	Richard Balgobin
2025-09-06 22d	HST	8.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn	79	1	5	0.0	F	88	80	63	82	87	80	4.35	Antonio Reyes
2025-08-15 62d·2.3×	HST	8.5f	dirt	Sloppy	Mdn	79	5	5	9.8	F	68	109	104	80	76	83	2.5	Antonio Reyes
2025-06-14 14d	HST	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Stk	83	6	6	8.8	F	78	91	106	83	77	82	26.15	Kerron Khelawan
2025-05-31	HST	6.5f	dirt	Sloppy	Mdn	83	3	5	2.2	F	94	91	89	82	77	79	12.45	Silvino Morales

3 Let's Go Champ

5G 122 lbs L EP

21.2%

MODEL %

7-2

MODEL FAIR

+6.9

EDGE vs ML

6/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig80 -3 vs par

Needs +3~22% run that

Class80.4 -0.2 vs race +0.1 gap

MC23.5% fair 3-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.4

Faced83.0 +1.1 vs today

Pace EP83.8 best 102.3

Pace LP85.1 best 101.7

Energy0.54

Connections

JockFrank Alvaradoκ 0.09was Kevin Orozco · +0.6

TrnIan Jewellκ 0.11

J×T12 · 25% win · 67% ITM

Angles

2nd off layoff 13% -27%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	11	2	1	1	18%	85.3
2026	1	0	0	0	0%	79.5
2025	7	2	1	1	29%	85.3
EMD	4	2	0	0	50%	85.3
Dirt	11	2	1	1	18%	85.3
Route	8	2	1	1	25%	85.3
Wet	2	0	0	0	0%	82.8

WORKS 07-25 EMD 4 Furlongs :46.80 B 71 07-06 EMD 5 Furlongs 1:01.60 B 54 06-26 EMD 5 Furlongs 1:03.20 B 36 06-18 EMD 4 Furlongs :49.60 B 43 06-08 EMD 3 Furlongs :37.20 B 39

SIRESungold 81 55%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-12 365d·8.9×	EMD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	84	6	6	17.0		87	85	95	80	83	82	15.08	Kevin Orozco
2025-07-12 13d	EMD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	79	1	6	0.0		72	90	102	85	93	81	0.78	Kevin Krigger
2025-06-29 15d	EMD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	87	7	7	36.0	F	102	85	70	75	71	82	11.74	Alex Cruz
2025-06-14 50d	EMD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	81	1	7	0.0		81	89	86	85	92	81	6.5	Frank Alvarado
2025-04-25 28d	OP	8.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	83	7	8	34.2		88	97	87	76	68	84	4.9	Amanda Poston
2025-03-28 12d	OP	8.5f	dirt	Muddy (Sealed)	Mdn Clm	84	5	9	10.0		92	82	81	83	82	84	11.9	Travis Wales
2025-03-16 41d	OP	8.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	84	3	9	2.8	F	82	93	88	83	84	82	30.2	Travis Wales
2025-02-03 45d	OP	8.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	83	2	7	2.5		91	89	88	84	85	81	32.1	Martin Chuan
2024-12-20 244d·6.0×	OP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	83	7	8	14.2		nan	nan	29	77	69	82	34.8	Erick Medellin
2024-04-20	OP	6.0f	dirt	Muddy (Sealed)	Mdn Clm	85	8	11	9.5	F	92	nan	84	80	76	82	71.9	Rocco Bowen

2 Bluegrass Lent

5G 122 lbs L P

10.6%

MODEL %

8-1

MODEL FAIR

-18.0

EDGE vs ML

5/2

M/L

Form

Proj Fig80 -3 vs par

Needs +3~22% run that

Class82.4 +1.8 vs race -2.6 gap

MC20.9% fair 4-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.24

Faced83.1 +1.2 vs today

Pace EP81.5 best 97.2

Pace LP82.8 best 104.4

Energy0.53

Connections

JockAlex Cruzκ 0.07

TrnPatty Leaneyκ 0.05

J×T20 · 15% win · 35% ITM

Angles

Alex Cruz / Patty Leaney 13% -23%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	13	2	1	4	15%	83.9
2026	4	0	1	0	0%	81.2
2025	7	2	0	2	29%	83.8
EMD	4	0	1	0	0%	81.2
Dirt	13	2	1	4	15%	83.9
Route	3	0	1	0	0%	83.1
Wet	0	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS ★04-26 EMD 5 Furlongs :58.60 H 83 04-18 EMD 5 Furlongs 1:00.00 B 73

SIRELent 80 33%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-18 22d	EMD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	82	2	4	4.2		—	—	—	79	76	82	3.12	Alex Cruz
2026-06-26 41d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	82	4	5	4.2		83	91	104	81	76	82	4.79	Alex Cruz
2026-05-16 14d	EMD	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	83	4	5	6.0	F	75	nan	74	81	83	84	7.2	Alex Cruz
2026-05-02 217d·9.9×	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	84	5	5	3.2	F	81	87	82	79	68	83	9.64	Alex Cruz
2025-09-27 49d·2.2×	HST	8.5f	dirt	Good	AOC	85	7	7	10.2	F	97	nan	90	82	84	84	39.3	Kimal Santo
2025-08-09 14d	HST	6.5f	dirt	Fast	AOC	85	4	5	4.5	F	75	nan	72	82	86	83	9.7	Richard Balgobin
2025-07-26 21d	HST	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	83	3	5	4.8		95	80	80	81	73	83	1.05	Amadeo Perez
2025-07-05 27d	HST	8.5f	dirt	Fast	AOC	86	6	6	8.5	S	96	88	88	83	84	84	26.45	Christopher Mamdeen
2025-06-08 15d	HST	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Alw	83	1	6	0.0	F	91	83	70	84	86	82	2.85	Kerron Khelawan
2025-05-24	HST	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Alw	85	3	7	1.5	F	106	76	57	84	85	81	26.2	Kerron Khelawan

4 Fortyshadesoftiger

4G 125 lbs L P

6.8%

MODEL %

15-1

MODEL FAIR

-4.3

EDGE vs ML

8/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig79 -4 vs par

Needs +5~10% run that

Class81.0 +0.4 vs race -2.1 gap

MC12.3% fair 7-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.21

Faced81.4 -0.5 vs today

Pace EP85.6 best 100.8

Pace LP84.7 best 94.0

Energy0.53

Connections

JockAdrian Castellanosκ 0.08

TrnSergio Perezκ 0.27

J×T75 · 12% win · 45% ITM

Angles

Adrian Castellanos / Sergio Perez 9% -46%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	15	2	3	13%	85.1
2026	6	1	1	17%	79.9
2025	7	1	2	14%	84.8
EMD	15	2	3	13%	85.1
Dirt	15	2	3	13%	85.1
Route	8	2	3	25%	84.8
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 05-23 EMD 6 Furlongs 1:14.40 B 51 05-03 EMD 5 Furlongs 1:01.00 B 57 04-26 EMD 5 Furlongs 1:01.40 B 51 04-18 EMD 4 Furlongs :49.60 B 49

SIRESmiling Tiger 82 69%ile turf 12%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-18 13d	EMD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	82	4	4	10.5		—	—	—	76	70	82	3.26	Adrian Castellanos
2026-07-05 8d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	85	5	6	8.5	F	101	93	91	80	79	82	39.46	Kevin Krigger
2026-06-27 14d	EMD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	81	1	7	0.0		92	87	94	79	81	80	1.35	Adrian Castellanos
2026-06-13 14d	EMD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	79	2	4	0.2	F	79	95	88	80	85	80	0.84	Adrian Castellanos
2026-05-30 21d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	80	6	6	12.5	F	80	70	73	74	67	81	5.96	Jose Rodriguez
2026-05-09 246d·17.6×	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	80	4	5	4.8		93	89	91	74	71	80	5.94	Jose Rodriguez
2025-09-05 13d	EMD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	79	2	8	0.1	F	95	71	64	82	88	79	2.07	David Haldar
2025-08-23 15d	EMD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	80	6	7	17.2	F	88	89	84	76	71	81	3.89	David Haldar
2025-08-08 27d	EMD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	82	4	8	7.2	F	76	85	81	82	79	81	2.66	David Haldar
2025-07-12	EMD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	79	2	6	0.2		85	85	100	85	93	79	4.73	David Haldar