EMD 2026-08-01 · US Racing

TRACKS · 2026-08-01

CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO

▸ How to read a horse block

MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σ_α. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.

R1 D R2 D R3 D R4 D R5 D R6 D R7 D R8 D

Purse $8,500. Five And One Half Furlongs. (Includes $1,700 – MITEC - Muckleshoot Tribal Contribution). For Three Year Olds And Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races. Three Year Olds, 121 Lbs.; Older, 125 Lbs. Non-winners Of Two Races Allowed 3 Lbs. Claiming Price $2,500.

TODAY'S CONTENDERS		WIN% · FAIR / ML	QIK%	STY	P1C	CLASS	PROJ	COND	LAST	SUS	J×T
1	Simonsito	20% 4-1 / 8/1	13.5%	S	4th/1w	79 -0.0	74⁴-9	75⁵	75⁴	—	J+1.7rte→spr	—	⚠-1.1
2	Morro Morro	0% 99-1 / 15/1	3.3%	EP	2nd/1w	74 -5.4	72⁶-11	72⁶	62⁶	—	L1T+3.1J+1.1▲cls	—	✓+2.72∠
3	Chances Taken	2% 50-1 / 6/1	7.8%	P	5th/1w	80 +1.4	74⁴-9	78⁴	73⁵	87²	J-2.3rte→spr	—	⚠-2.21∠
4	Convey to Me ✓	8% 10-1 / 8/5	22.8%	P	1st/1w	81 +2.2	77³-6	80³	77³	88¹		14%
5	Gentlemen's Club ✓	51% 4-5 / 5/2	35.0%	C	6th/2w	84 +4.8	81¹-2	91¹	82¹	—		26%	⚓ANCHOR★PRIME1∠
6	Lord of Light	19% 9-2 / 4/1	17.6%	P	3rd/3w	80 +1.5	80²-3	82²	80²	—	L3T-0.5	—	1∠

Pace Projector SPEED DUEL closers favored 1st¼ 22.2s par 22.6 EP/LP

ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 4 HOLDS ⚡ 95/96 Convey to Me 2 LP ⚡ 97/99 Morro Morro 6 »» 98/95 Lord of Light 1 93/95 Simonsito 3 95/96 Chances Taken 5 LP » 94/97 Gentlemen's Club

On the lead: 4, 2 · race sets up for closers

5 Gentlemen's Club ★ PRIME

5G 125 lbs L C

51.4%

MODEL %

4-5

MODEL FAIR

+22.8

EDGE vs ML

5/2

M/L

Form

Proj Fig81 -2 vs par

Needs +3~22% run that

Class83.7 +4.8 vs race -2.5 gap

MC37.8% fair 8-5

ConfTIGHT σα 0.21

Faced81.4 +1.1 vs today

Pace EP86.1 best 93.7

Pace LP81.4 best 96.5

Energy0.53

Connections

JockAdrian Castellanosκ 0.08

TrnFrancisco Rodriguezκ 0.08

J×T27 · 26% win · 52% ITM

Angles

Adrian Castellanos / Francisco Rodriguez 31% +34%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	22	2	3	3	9%	91.3
2026	5	1	1	1	20%	84.7
2025	9	0	2	0	0%	87.7
EMD	3	1	0	0	33%	82.0
Dirt	16	2	2	2	12%	91.3
Sprint	10	2	1	2	20%	91.3
Wet	1	1	0	0	100%	80.0

WORKS 07-17 EMD 4 Furlongs :51.40 B 24 07-06 EMD 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 52 05-18 EMD 4 Furlongs :50.20 B 35 05-09 EMD 5 Furlongs 1:01.20 B 59 04-25 EMD 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 45 ★04-18 EMD 5 Furlongs :59.40 B 81

SIREClubhouse Ride 84 82%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-25 49d	EMD	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	82	5	6	4.5	F	—	—	—	82	79	84	2.78	Adrian Castellanos
2026-06-06 14d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Muddy	Clm	78	1	7	0.0	F	81	80	96	80	80	84	2.5	Blake Nunnally
2026-05-23 91d·2.5×	EMD	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	79	6	7	6.8	F	93	100	90	78	72	85	0.93	Pablo Castillo
2026-02-21 36d	SA	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	85	2	5	3.2		91	78	78	85	88	85	9.2	Diego Herrera
2026-01-16 35d	SA	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	83	3	6	5.5		89	84	74	84	93	86	2.9	Diego Herrera
2025-12-12 20d	LRC	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	85	4	6	4.0	F	94	78	73	85	83	86	2.4	Diego Herrera
2025-11-22 48d	DMR	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	84	4	6	8.5		119	nan	40	84	85	87	5.7	Diego Herrera
2025-10-05 105d·2.9×	SA	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	83	4	9	1.5		74	92	96	87	87	87	4.8	Diego Herrera
2025-06-22 16d	LRC	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	84	2	6	2.2		79	nan	61	87	84	87	6.1	Diego Herrera
2025-06-06	SA	8.0f	turf	Firm	Clm	87	7	8	6.5		87	98	84	83	76	87	19.5	Armando Ayuso

1 Simonsito

8G 122 lbs L S

19.6%

MODEL %

4-1

MODEL FAIR

+8.5

EDGE vs ML

8/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig74 -9 vs par

Needs +9~2% run that

Class78.9 -0.0 vs race -4.7 gap

MC8.5% fair 10-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.26

Faced78.8 -1.5 vs today

Pace EP84.5 best 93.4

Pace LP75.0 best 95.1

Energy0.52

Connections

JockAngel Cruzκ 0.07was Alex Anaya · +1.7

TrnShelly Croweκ 0.07

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	31	3	4	7	10%	81.7
2026	4	0	0	1	0%	75.3
2025	9	0	0	2	0%	81.7
EMD	7	0	1	2	0%	77.0
Dirt	31	3	4	7	10%	81.7
Sprint	30	3	4	6	10%	81.7
Wet	2	0	1	0	0%	76.3

WORKS 05-24 EMD 5 Furlongs 1:02.20 B 44 05-17 EMD 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 54 05-10 EMD 4 Furlongs :50.80 B 34 05-03 EMD 3 Furlongs :36.00 B 47

SIREReturning 76 6%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-11 13d	EMD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	80	3	4	0.8	S	nan	nan	71	75	74	78	17.89	Alex Anaya
2026-06-28 9d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	80	4	5	8.0	F	86	95	95	75	76	77	34.68	Alex Anaya
2026-06-19 20d	EMD	5.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	78	5	7	5.0	F	93	94	94	72	66	76	32.89	Jairo Moreno
2026-05-30 236d·11.8×	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	79	8	9	17.8	F	88	73	19	70	62	77	65.8	Jairo Moreno
2025-10-06 22d	GRP	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	77	3	10	5.5	F	83	92	80	74	73	77	39.0	Oracio Muro
2025-09-14 6d	GRP	5.0f	dirt	Good	Clm	79	5	7	14.8	S	90	nan	83	70	49	79	10.5	Oracio Muro
2025-09-08 31d	GRP	5.0f	dirt	Muddy	Alw	81	5	6	5.8		96	95	94	76	68	79	13.2	Blake Nunnally
2025-08-08 40d·2.0×	TIL	5.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	78	3	7	3.5		—	—	—	76	68	79	5.5	Jose Figueroa
2025-06-29 7d	GRP	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	78	4	7	2.2		90	79	73	78	81	78	7.5	Jake Samuels
2025-06-22	GRP	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Stk	80	4	5	5.2	F	96	87	93	82	83	77	6.5	Hugo Herrera

6 Lord of Light

6G 125 lbs L P

18.7%

MODEL %

9-2

MODEL FAIR

-1.3

EDGE vs ML

4/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig80 -3 vs par

Needs +2~30% run that

Class80.4 +1.5 vs race -0.3 gap

MC29.8% fair 5-2

ConfTIGHT σα 0.28

Faced78.5 -1.8 vs today

Pace EP82.9 best 98.0

Pace LP76.3 best 95.2

Energy0.53

Connections

JockBlake Nunnallyκ 0.1was Jake Samuels · +0.2

TrnFrancisco Rodriguezκ 0.08was Hector Magallanes · -0.5

Angles

3rd off layoff 14% -22%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	33	7	7	6	21%	84.7
2026	2	1	0	0	50%	81.9
2025	7	4	1	1	57%	83.3
EMD	2	0	0	1	0%	79.6
Dirt	23	6	5	5	26%	84.7
Sprint	19	6	5	4	32%	84.7
Wet	0	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 06-07 EMD 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 46 05-31 EMD 4 Furlongs :51.40 B 24 05-24 EMD 3 Furlongs :35.40 H 55 ◆Lincoln Jay·78

SIRELord Nelson 83 80%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-05 15d	GRP	5.0f	dirt	Fast	Str Alw	80	4	6	5.2	F	nan	nan	78	80	81	81	1.9	Jake Samuels
2026-06-20 258d·12.3×	GRP	5.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	79	1	4	0.0		88	67	37	82	75	80	1.0	Jake Samuels
2025-10-05 21d	GRP	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	77	1	8	0.0	F	60	81	95	82	84	80	2.6	Jake Samuels
2025-09-14 22d	GRP	5.5f	dirt	Good	Alw	77	2	8	2.0		95	90	84	80	65	80	1.1	Jake Samuels
2025-08-23 28d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	80	8	8	11.8	F	98	86	77	77	75	81	5.3	Kiaman McGregor
2025-07-26 15d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	78	3	8	2.5	F	93	88	59	80	69	81	1.9	Kiaman McGregor
2025-07-11 12d	PRV	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	79	1	4	0.0		—	—	—	83	82	81	1.0	Jose Guerrero
2025-06-29 21d	GRP	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	78	1	7	0.0		101	nan	81	81	84	80	0.8	Jose Guerrero
2025-06-08 237d·11.3×	UN	5.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	77	1	4	0.0		—	—	—	80	84	80	0.4	Jose Figueroa
2024-10-14	GRP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	79	5	8	0.0		76	79	80	82	80	80	7.2	Jose Guerrero

4 Convey to Me

4G 125 lbs L P

8.3%

MODEL %

10-1

MODEL FAIR

-30.2

EDGE vs ML

8/5

M/L

Form

Proj Fig77 -6 vs par

Needs +4~14% run that

Class81.1 +2.2 vs race -4.1 gap

MC12.5% fair 7-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.17

Faced79.8 -0.5 vs today

Pace EP80.3 best 95.2

Pace LP86.9 best 95.6

Energy0.53

Connections

JockSilvio Amadorκ 0.14

TrnCharles Essexκ 0.03

J×T14 · 14% win · 57% ITM

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	13	2	2	1	15%	83.1
2026	10	2	1	1	20%	79.9
2025	3	0	1	0	0%	83.1
EMD	6	1	1	1	17%	79.9
Dirt	13	2	2	1	15%	83.1
Sprint	12	2	2	1	17%	83.1
Wet	1	0	0	0	0%	78.8

WORKS 05-03 EMD 4 Furlongs :47.60 B 64 04-18 EMD 4 Furlongs :50.80 B 36

SIREConveyance 83 81%ile turf 9%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-12 14d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	82	5	6	4.8	F	87	94	90	77	78	81	8.77	Silvio Amador
2026-06-28 22d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	80	3	5	0.8	F	78	102	95	80	85	80	4.35	Silvio Amador
2026-06-06 14d	EMD	6.5f	dirt	Muddy	Clm	82	4	5	2.8	F	95	91	96	79	84	78	4.01	Silvio Amador
2026-05-23 13d	EMD	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	78	1	7	0.0	F	59	84	92	78	81	76	2.69	Silvio Amador
2026-05-10 39d·2.6×	EMD	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	78	2	7	1.5	F	84	75	82	77	81	74	2.34	Silvio Amador
2026-04-01 13d	TUP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	80	8	9	14.5	F	80	86	68	73	72	74	58.7	Guillermo Rodriguez
2026-03-19 15d	TUP	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	73	1	9	0.0	F	76	89	99	78	70	72	11.0	Guillermo Rodriguez
2026-03-04 27d	TUP	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	74	7	8	5.5	F	95	83	83	76	70	71	2.7	Alex Cruz
2026-02-05 17d	TUP	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	76	7	8	32.2	F	78	nan	80	64	46	73	9.1	Alex Cruz
2026-01-19	TUP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn	79	10	10	15.5	F	103	nan	78	72	63	74	53.7	Alex Cruz

3 Chances Taken

5G 125 lbs L P

1.5%

MODEL %

50-1

MODEL FAIR

-12.8

EDGE vs ML

6/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig74 -9 vs par

Needs +7~4% run that

Class80.3 +1.4 vs race -6.3 gap

MC8.9% fair 10-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.27

Faced80.6 +0.3 vs today

Pace EP83.9 best 94.6

Pace LP79.8 best 95.9

Energy0.51

Connections

JockAlex Anayaκ -0.1was Silvio Amador · -2.3

TrnJoe Toyeκ 0.17

Angles

Alex Anaya / Joe Toye 12% +39%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	20	2	1	2	10%	83.7
2026	7	1	0	1	14%	80.2
2025	10	1	1	1	10%	83.7
EMD	2	0	0	1	0%	75.9
Dirt	12	1	1	1	8%	80.0
Sprint	9	1	1	1	11%	80.0
Wet	2	0	0	0	0%	76.5

WORKS 07-26 EMD 3 Furlongs :37.00 B 41

SIREHonor Code 84 82%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-27 28d	EMD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	81	7	7	13.0		89	nan	85	73	69	82	8.32	Silvio Amador
2026-05-30 39d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	79	3	9	8.2	F	nan	nan	49	76	74	82	7.78	Silvio Amador
2026-04-21 28d	TUP	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	82	5	6	3.0	S	84	87	96	78	77	82	14.7	Frank Alvarado
2026-03-24 20d	TUP	8.0f	turf	Firm	Clm	81	1	8	0.0	S	95	84	78	80	76	81	5.2	Silvio Amador
2026-03-04 18d	TP	8.0f	synthetic	Fast	Clm	80	9	12	10.2	S	80	89	91	78	69	82	8.13	William Antongeorgi III
2026-02-14 36d	TP	8.0f	synthetic	Fast	Clm	82	9	11	10.5	S	82	75	69	77	66	82	4.52	Antioco Murgia
2026-01-09 28d	TP	8.0f	synthetic	Fast	Clm	81	5	11	3.2		87	83	65	80	78	81	9.18	Antioco Murgia
2025-12-12 28d	TP	8.0f	synthetic	Fast	Clm	80	3	12	3.0		89	86	80	84	87	80	18.05	Antioco Murgia
2025-11-14 22d	CD	8.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	82	7	9	10.8	S	78	83	86	75	73	79	32.07	Antioco Murgia
2025-10-23	IND	8.0f	turf	Good	Clm	80	6	12	2.2	F	91	87	74	77	88	77	26.4	Antioco Murgia

2 Morro Morro

3G 121 lbs L EP

0.4%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-5.8

EDGE vs ML

15/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig72 -11 vs par

Needs +15~<1% run that

Class73.5 -5.4 vs race -1.6 gap

MC2.5% fair 30-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.41

Faced78.4 -1.9 vs today

Pace EP86.1 best 96.7

Pace LP84.2 best 99.0

Energy0.56

Connections

JockJaime Rodriguezκ 0.16was Pedro Flores · +1.1

TrnGary Greinerκ 0.05was Felix Gonzalez · +3.1

Angles

1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% Gary Greiner: off layoff (60d+) 9% -15%

Record

	Sts	1st	Win%	Fig
Life	5	1	20%	72.1
2026	3	1	33%	72.1
2025	2	0	0%	56.2
EMD	0	0	—	—
Dirt	5	1	20%	72.1
Sprint	5	1	20%	72.1
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-26 EMD 4 Furlongs :52.00 B 22 03-15 LA 3 Furlongs :36.80 H 44 03-08 LA 3 Furlongs :37.60 H 34

SIREGraydar 81 51%ile turf 12%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-05-17 21d	LA	4.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	77	6	6	21.2	F	nan	nan	83	62	52	75	36.7	Pedro Flores
2026-04-26 35d	LA	4.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	78	6	6	11.8	F	94	90	99	70	68	75	10.4	Pedro Flores
2026-03-22 233d·6.7×	LA	4.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	75	1	6	0.0	F	84	79	86	72	72	73	28.6	Pedro Flores
2025-08-01 27d	DMR	5.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	81	10	10	29.2	F	97	nan	76	56	37	72	43.7	Henry Lopez
2025-07-05	LRC	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	80	7	7	29.2	F	88	83	90	56	40	80	14.3	Francisco Ramirez