TRACKS · 2026-08-01
CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO
ALL CARDS ↗
▸ How to read a horse block
MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σα. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.
R1 D R2 D R3 D R4 D R5 D R6 D R7 D R8 D
R5 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
EMD 2026-08-01 Five And One Half Furlongs DIRT
77
strength
-5.0 soft
79
win par
fig to beat
HONEST PACE
shape
HONEST
early pace
1st¼ 22.6s / par 22.6
TOP-HEAVY
field
figs 74.8–83.5
Purse $23,000. Five And One Half Furlongs. (Includes $4,600 – MITEC - Muckleshoot Tribal Contribution). For Maidens, Two Years Old. Weight, 120 Lbs.
TODAY'S CONTENDERS WIN% · FAIR / ML QIK% STY P1C CLASS PROJ COND LAST SUS J×T
1 Bolt Action Beau 0% 99-1 / 6/1 7.5% 4th/1w — 832+4 — — — 17% 3∠
2 Inclusion Matters 0% 99-1 / 5/1 8.7% 6th/1w — 815+2 — — — — 3∠
3 Ryker's Heat 14% 6-1 / 8/1 11.1% 2nd/1w 77 -5.1 815+2 772 772 832 ▼cls 9% 2∠
4 Schoolofhardknocks 13% 7-1 / 6/1 12.3% 3rd/1w 82 -0.1 823+3 772 772 — J+1.7 — ✓+1.92∠
5 Kraken Up 71% 2-5 / 5/2 42.8% 1st/2w 77 -4.9 823+3 781 781 911 ▼cls 26% ✓+3.4★PRIME2∠
6 Cape Royal 2% 50-1 / 12/1 4.7% S 7th/2w 77 -5.7 757-4 714 704 — J+0.8KEY▼cls 9% 2∠
7 Gottherizz 0% 99-1 / 3/1 12.9% 5th/3w — 841+5 — — — 35% 2∠
Pace Projector HONEST PACE 1st¼ 22.6s par 22.6 EP/LP
ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 5 C★ » 93/89 Kraken Up 3 83/83 Ryker's Heat 4 Schoolofhardknocks 1 Bolt Action Beau 7 »» Gottherizz 2 Inclusion Matters 6 » 89/83 Cape Royal
5 Kraken Up ★ PRIME THIN DATA
2G 120 lbs
70.6%
MODEL %
2-5
MODEL FAIR
+42.0
EDGE vs ML
5/2
M/L
Form
Proj Fig82 +3 vs par
Needs fits levelbase 78 vs par 79
Class77.4 -4.9 vs race +4.4 gap
MC14.1% fair 6-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.4
Faced80.8 +3.5 vs today
Pace EP83.2 best 92.8
Pace LP82.2 best 88.9
Energy0.52
Connections
JockKevin Kriggerκ 0.1
TrnBlaine Wrightκ 0.3
J×T31 · 26% win · 61% ITM
Angles
Kevin Krigger / Blaine Wright 29% -2% 2nd career start 13% -28%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 10000%78.5
2026 10000%78.5
2025 0000——
EMD 10000%78.5
Dirt 10000%78.5
Sprint 10000%78.5
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-26 EMD 4 Furlongs :46.80 H G 76 ◆Cozumel·82 07-19 EMD 4 Furlongs :46.80 H G 70 07-12 EMD 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 41 06-21 EMD 5 Furlongs 1:00.40 H G 62 06-14 EMD 4 Furlongs :47.80 B 64 ◆Cozumel 06-07 EMD 4 Furlongs :49.80 B 39
SIRECoast Guard 82 60%ile turf 7%
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-28 EMD 5.0f dirt Fast MSW 81 5 10 11.2 F 93 91 89 78 69 81 1.39 Kevin Krigger
3 Ryker's Heat THIN DATA
2G 120 lbs
13.6%
MODEL %
6-1
MODEL FAIR
+2.5
EDGE vs ML
8/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig81 +2 vs par
Needs +2~31% run that
Class77.2 -5.1 vs race +3.6 gap
MC12.7% fair 7-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.43
Faced80.8 +3.5 vs today
Pace EP80.7 best 82.8
Pace LP80.8 best 83.2
Energy0.52
Connections
JockFrank Alvaradoκ 0.09was Blake Nunnally · -0.2
TrnSergio Perezκ 0.27
J×T22 · 9% win · 41% ITM
Angles
2nd career start 13% -28% Frank Alvarado / Sergio Perez 10% -42%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 10000%77.0
2026 10000%77.0
2025 0000——
EMD 10000%77.0
Dirt 10000%77.0
Sprint 10000%77.0
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-26 EMD 3 Furlongs :35.80 B 49 07-13 EMD 3 Furlongs :37.60 B 35 06-28 EMD 4 Furlongs :50.20 B 37 06-22 EMD 4 Furlongs :50.40 B 36 06-14 EMD 4 Furlongs :48.60 B G 53 ★06-05 EMD 2 Furlongs :23.00 H G 57
SIREConquest Farenheit 79 26%ile turf 7%
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-05 EMD 5.0f dirt Fast MSW 81 5 8 11.5 83 84 83 77 62 81 10.95 Blake Nunnally
4 Schoolofhardknocks THIN DATA
2C 120 lbs
12.6%
MODEL %
7-1
MODEL FAIR
-1.7
EDGE vs ML
6/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig82 +3 vs par
Needs +2~31% run that
Class82.2 -0.1 vs race -0.2 gap
MC22.6% fair 7-2
ConfNORMAL σα 0.38
Faced78.2 +0.9 vs today
Connections
JockAngel Cruzκ 0.07was Alex Anaya · +1.7
TrnJoe Toyeκ 0.17
Angles
2nd career start 13% -28% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 10010%77.0
2026 10010%77.0
2025 0000——
EMD 10010%77.0
Dirt 10010%77.0
Sprint 10010%77.0
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-13 EMD 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 52 07-04 EMD 4 Furlongs :49.80 B G 46 06-28 EMD 4 Furlongs :50.00 H 39 ★06-21 EMD 3 Furlongs :35.40 H G 50 06-07 EMD 3 Furlongs :36.00 B 45 06-01 EMD 2 Furlongs :25.40 B 33
SIREBarkley 85 88%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-19 EMD 5.0f dirt Fast Mdn Clm 78 3 7 2.0 — — — 77 59 78 7.11 Alex Anaya
6 Cape Royal THIN DATA
2G 120 lbs S
2.0%
MODEL %
50-1
MODEL FAIR
-5.7
EDGE vs ML
12/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig75 -4 vs par
Needs +8~6% run that
Class76.6 -5.7 vs race -1.8 gap
MC2.4% fair 50-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.32
Faced82.7 +5.4 vs today
Pace EP82.4 best 89.4
Pace LP80.7 best 82.6
Energy0.53
Connections
JockSilvio Amadorκ 0.14was Alex Cruz · +0.8
TrnDavid Martinezκ -0.09
J×T11 · 9% win · 45% ITM
Angles
Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23% Silvio Amador / David Martinez 15% -32%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 20000%71.4
2026 20000%71.4
2025 0000——
EMD 20000%71.4
Dirt 20000%71.4
Sprint 20000%71.4
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-26 EMD 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 49 ★07-13 EMD 3 Furlongs :34.60 H 56 06-21 EMD 4 Furlongs :49.80 B G 40 06-14 EMD 4 Furlongs :49.20 B G 46 06-07 EMD 4 Furlongs :48.60 B 52 05-31 EMD 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 36
SIREBarkley 85 88%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-19 21d EMD 5.5f dirt Fast Stk 85 6 6 24.0 F — — — 70 59 73 71.69 Alex Cruz
2026-06-28 EMD 5.0f dirt Fast MSW 81 6 10 16.2 F 89 89 83 71 62 81 16.91 Alex Cruz
1 Bolt Action Beau
2G 120 lbs
0.5%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-13.8
EDGE vs ML
6/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig83 +4 vs par
MC14.0% fair 6-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockIsaias Enriquezκ 0.07
TrnFrank Lucarelliκ 0.2
J×T323 · 17% win · 45% ITM
Angles
Isaias Enriquez / Frank Lucarelli 17% -21% Debut 11% -25% Frank Lucarelli: debut 11% -5%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
EMD 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-26 EMD 5 Furlongs 1:01.00 B 60 07-19 EMD 5 Furlongs 1:01.00 B G 57 07-13 EMD 4 Furlongs :50.20 B 39 07-06 EMD 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 44 06-27 EMD 4 Furlongs :51.20 B 37 06-19 EMD 3 Furlongs :37.20 B 37
SIREBolt D'Oro 85 89%ile 1st-out 20% (258) turf 14%
No prior races in database
7 Gottherizz
2C 120 lbs
0.4%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-24.6
EDGE vs ML
3/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig84 +5 vs par
MC19.9% fair 4-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockAdrian Castellanosκ 0.08
TrnTom Wenzelκ 0.27
J×T17 · 35% win · 71% ITM
Angles
Tom Wenzel: debut 13% -12% Debut 11% -25%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
EMD 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-27 EMD 4 Furlongs :48.20 H 58 07-19 EMD 4 Furlongs :48.60 B G 52 07-05 EMD 3 Furlongs :38.20 B G 29 06-29 EMD 3 Furlongs :37.20 B 39 05-18 EMD 3 Furlongs :37.80 B 30 05-11 EMD 3 Furlongs :39.20 B 24
SIREEpicenter 99 99%ile 1st-out 22% (9)
No prior races in database
2 Inclusion Matters
2C 120 lbs
0.4%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-16.3
EDGE vs ML
5/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig81 +2 vs par
MC14.4% fair 6-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockAlex Anayaκ -0.1
TrnJoe Toyeκ 0.17
Angles
Joe Toye: debut 16% -13% Alex Anaya / Joe Toye 12% +39% Debut 11% -25%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
EMD 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS ★07-26 EMD 3 Furlongs :35.60 B 50 07-13 EMD 4 Furlongs :52.80 B 15 ★07-04 EMD 4 Furlongs :47.40 B G 70 06-28 EMD 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 49 06-21 EMD 3 Furlongs :36.20 B G 44 06-07 EMD 3 Furlongs :36.00 B 44
SIREStraight Fire 83 73%ile 1st-out 36% (39) turf 18%
No prior races in database