EMD 2026-08-01 · US Racing

TRACKS · 2026-08-01

CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO

▸ How to read a horse block

MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σ_α. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.

R1 D R2 D R3 D R4 D R5 D R6 D R7 D R8 D

Purse $11,000. Five And One Half Furlongs. (Includes $2,200 – MITEC - Muckleshoot Tribal Contribution). For Three Year Olds And Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races. Three Year Olds, 121 Lbs.; Older, 125 Lbs. Non-winners Of A Race In 2026 Allowed 3 Lbs. Claiming Price $8,000.

TODAY'S CONTENDERS		WIN% · FAIR / ML	QIK%	STY	P1C	CLASS	PROJ	COND	LAST	SUS	J×T
1	Kyalam	50% EVEN / 6/5	41.5%	E	1st/1w	84 +3.0	82¹-1	84¹	84¹	—	▼cls	18%	✓+3.4⚓ANCHOR★PRIME1∠
2	Giant Impact	2% 50-1 / 15/1	3.6%	P	4th/1w	77 -3.5	74⁶-9	78⁶	71⁶	—	▼cls	—
3	Ophir Gold	0% 99-1 / 15/1	3.1%	S	5th/1w	74 -6.3	75⁵-8	70⁷	58⁷	—	T-0.8	0%	⚠-2.11∠
4	Shiny Orb ✓	16% 5-1 / 6/1	13.2%	C	7th/1w	78 -2.2	77⁴-6	82²	79³	93¹	L3CLMT-2.7J-1.1	—	⚠-3.91∠
5	Rocksalot	7% 12-1 / 10/1	7.1%	P	6th/2w	78 -3.0	79²-4	80⁴	77⁴	92²	J-0.5	—	⚠-1.4
6	Golden Regal	4% 20-1 / 8/1	7.1%	P	3rd/2w	77 -3.8	74⁶-9	80⁴	72⁵	92²	L2	—	2∠
7	Tigersun ✓	21% 7-2 / 2/1	24.5%	P	2nd/3w	82 +1.6	79²-4	81³	80²	—	J-0.5	0%

Pace Projector LONE SPEED front favored 1st¼ 22.6s par 22.6 EP/LP

ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 1 LS★ ⚡ 92/89 Kyalam 7 LP »» 96/105 Tigersun 6 » 101/101 Golden Regal 2 99/99 Giant Impact 3 95/91 Ophir Gold 5 LP » 96/105 Rocksalot 4 LP 101/107 Shiny Orb

On the lead: 1 · race sets up for front

1 Kyalam ★ PRIME

4G 122 lbs L E

49.5%

MODEL %

EVEN

MODEL FAIR

+4.0

EDGE vs ML

6/5

M/L

Form

Proj Fig82 -1 vs par

Needs fits levelbase 83 vs par 83

Class83.5 +3.0 vs race -1.6 gap

MC32.5% fair 2-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.25

Faced81.2 +3.7 vs today

Pace EP80.4 best 92.4

Pace LP79.1 best 89.4

Energy0.53

Connections

JockSilvio Amadorκ 0.14

TrnJoe Toyeκ 0.17

J×T38 · 18% win · 53% ITM

Angles

Silvio Amador / Joe Toye 18% -24%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	10	1	3	3	10%	83.8
2026	5	0	2	2	0%	83.8
2025	5	1	1	1	20%	83.5
EMD	5	0	2	2	0%	83.8
Dirt	10	1	3	3	10%	83.8
Sprint	5	0	2	1	0%	83.8
Wet	0	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 05-17 EMD 4 Furlongs :48.20 B G 59 05-09 EMD 5 Furlongs 1:03.20 B 35 05-02 EMD 5 Furlongs :59.40 B 74 04-25 EMD 5 Furlongs 1:00.00 B 63 04-18 EMD 4 Furlongs :48.40 B 59

SIRELent 80 33%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-24 21d	EMD	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	81	2	6	0.2	F	—	—	—	84	82	83	1.38	Silvio Amador
2026-07-03 14d	EMD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	81	2	5	0.2	S	92	88	85	83	84	83	3.16	Silvio Amador
2026-06-19 7d	EMD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	81	3	5	1.5		80	nan	89	82	82	82	2.65	Silvio Amador
2026-06-12 20d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	80	3	5	10.5		84	79	75	77	65	84	3.86	Karlo Lopez
2026-05-23 292d·14.6×	EMD	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	83	5	5	9.0	F	68	86	76	81	82	85	2.01	Karlo Lopez
2025-08-04 30d	HST	8.5f	dirt	Fast	Stk	85	4	6	2.2		78	68	67	84	83	83	17.95	Richard Balgobin
2025-07-05 14d	HST	8.5f	dirt	Fast	Stk	85	3	4	7.0		94	82	77	82	81	82	6.2	Amadeo Perez
2025-06-21 20d	HST	8.5f	dirt	Good	Mdn	79	1	6	0.0	F	83	91	96	82	75	80	2.15	Antonio Reyes
2025-06-01 21d	HST	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	78	2	4	1.8	F	83	87	89	83	83	80	3.2	Antonio Reyes
2025-05-11	HST	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn	80	4	4	5.5	S	80	78	63	81	75	79	2.55	Amadeo Perez

7 Tigersun

5G 122 lbs L P

21.4%

MODEL %

7-2

MODEL FAIR

-11.9

EDGE vs ML

2/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig79 -4 vs par

Needs +4~14% run that

Class82.1 +1.6 vs race -2.8 gap

MC20.6% fair 4-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.24

Faced79.3 +1.8 vs today

Pace EP83.1 best 96.1

Pace LP85.3 best 105.3

Energy0.54

Connections

JockAdrian Castellanosκ 0.08was Silvio Amador · -0.5

TrnHilario Perezκ 0.17

J×T4 · 0% win · 50% ITM

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	22	1	3	7	5%	83.3
2026	4	0	1	0	0%	80.9
2025	11	1	2	4	9%	83.3
EMD	13	1	3	3	8%	83.3
Dirt	21	1	3	7	5%	83.3
Sprint	22	1	3	7	5%	83.3
Wet	2	0	0	1	0%	80.7

WORKS 06-22 EMD 4 Furlongs :47.00 H 70 05-24 EMD 5 Furlongs 1:02.40 B 41 05-17 EMD 5 Furlongs 1:01.40 B 54 05-10 EMD 5 Furlongs 1:02.80 B 43 ◆Street Mogul·84 05-03 EMD 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 50 04-26 EMD 4 Furlongs :47.60 B 62

SIRESmiling Tiger 82 69%ile turf 12%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-18 22d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	79	2	6	1.8	F	—	—	—	80	74	82	0.41	Silvio Amador
2026-06-26 20d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	81	5	7	4.2		76	92	105	81	80	81	5.95	Lenny Seecharan
2026-06-06 7d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Muddy	Clm	78	5	7	2.2	F	96	97	93	78	77	81	1.21	Silvio Amador
2026-05-30 266d·13.3×	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	80	4	6	6.0	F	87	92	94	80	75	81	11.03	Alex Cruz
2025-09-06 14d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	78	5	8	6.8	F	81	87	67	76	74	81	2.14	Frank Alvarado
2025-08-23 21d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	80	2	8	4.8	F	84	88	83	79	84	81	7.39	Frank Alvarado
2025-08-02 13d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	82	5	7	6.0	F	96	88	83	76	78	81	17.31	Pablo Castillo
2025-07-20 21d	EMD	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	80	3	7	1.5	F	96	85	62	80	85	80	8.89	Pablo Castillo
2025-06-29 8d	EMD	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	79	3	9	9.0	F	87	80	87	83	90	80	3.07	Frank Alvarado
2025-06-21	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Wet Fast	Clm	82	3	7	2.0	F	94	91	82	81	82	79	4.69	Alex Cruz

4 Shiny Orb

5G 125 lbs L C

15.9%

MODEL %

5-1

MODEL FAIR

+1.6

EDGE vs ML

6/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig77 -6 vs par

Needs +4~14% run that

Class78.3 -2.2 vs race -1.2 gap

MC13.3% fair 7-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.31

Faced76.4 -1.1 vs today

Pace EP86.8 best 100.5

Pace LP89.8 best 106.8

Energy0.52

Connections

JockAdrian Moralesκ -0.03was Adrian Castellanos · -1.1

TrnSarah Jenningsκ -0.0CLAIMEDwas Tom Wenzel · -2.7

Angles

3rd off layoff 14% -22%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	4	1	1	25%	82.2
2026	2	1	1	50%	82.2
2025	2	0	0	0%	82.0
EMD	4	1	1	25%	82.2
Dirt	4	1	1	25%	82.2
Sprint	4	1	1	25%	82.2
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-19 EMD 3 Furlongs :36.40 B 41 05-25 EMD 4 Furlongs :46.80 H G 74 05-18 EMD 5 Furlongs :59.60 H 70 05-11 EMD 5 Furlongs 1:01.00 H 57 05-03 EMD 4 Furlongs :47.60 B 64 04-27 EMD 4 Furlongs :48.40 H 60 ◆Candy Caballo·93

SIRECreative Cause 83 74%ile turf 11%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-28 29d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	77	2	5	0.2		93	93	93	79	69	76	1.92	Adrian Castellanos
2026-05-30 281d·9.7×	EMD	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	75	1	6	0.0		96	92	89	82	76	73	1.4	Adrian Castellanos
2025-08-22 14d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	73	5	8	10.8	F	100	100	107	75	62	74	4.17	Julien Couton
2025-08-08	EMD	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	81	6	7	12.5	F	78	93	100	82	75	78	11.87	Julien Couton

5 Rocksalot

5G 125 lbs L P

6.9%

MODEL %

12-1

MODEL FAIR

-2.2

EDGE vs ML

10/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig79 -4 vs par

Needs +6~6% run that

Class77.5 -3.0 vs race +1.5 gap

MC18.8% fair 9-2

ConfTIGHT σα 0.22

Faced78.5 +1.0 vs today

Pace EP85.4 best 96.3

Pace LP86.9 best 104.9

Energy0.54

Connections

JockKevin Orozcoκ 0.02was Kiaman McGregor · -0.5

TrnSarah Jenningsκ -0.0

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	13	1	2	2	8%	84.2
2026	7	1	0	1	14%	80.0
2025	6	0	2	1	0%	84.2
EMD	3	0	0	1	0%	79.6
Dirt	13	1	2	2	8%	84.2
Sprint	8	1	0	2	12%	83.2
Wet	0	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 04-02 TUP 3 Furlongs :37.20 H 37

SIRESir Prancealot (Ire) 82 64%ile turf 20%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-10 14d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	79	3	4	10.8		91	86	93	77	65	78	10.26	Kiaman McGregor
2026-06-26 14d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	81	7	7	8.0		74	90	105	80	75	77	45.46	Pablo Castillo
2026-06-12 42d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	80	4	5	14.0		96	nan	87	74	61	78	14.74	Pablo Castillo
2026-05-01 24d	TUP	5.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	75	1	7	0.0	F	92	nan	73	80	70	77	2.0	Kiaman McGregor
2026-04-07 21d	TUP	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	77	4	7	8.0		89	112	97	80	72	78	15.1	Kiaman McGregor
2026-03-17 26d	TUP	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	77	5	6	11.2		88	89	90	77	69	79	3.3	Kiaman McGregor
2026-02-19 74d·2.8×	TUP	5.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn	80	6	6	10.2	F	86	90	109	80	76	80	11.3	Kevin Krigger
2025-12-07 44d	LRC	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	78	2	6	2.5		94	79	73	83	82	80	2.2	Tyler Baze
2025-10-24 34d	SA	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	79	2	9	0.1		91	88	93	84	81	79	5.4	Tyler Baze
2025-09-20	LRC	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	78	4	7	2.8		83	81	56	83	82	77	2.3	Tyler Baze

6 Golden Regal

4G 117 lbs L P

4.4%

MODEL %

20-1

MODEL FAIR

-6.7

EDGE vs ML

8/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig74 -9 vs par

Needs +7~4% run that

Class76.7 -3.8 vs race -2.6 gap

MC6.5% fair 15-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.39

Faced77.6 +0.1 vs today

Pace EP84.7 best 101.4

Pace LP76.9 best 101.3

Energy0.54

Connections

JockTalliyah Timentwaκ -0.07

TrnPatty Leaneyκ 0.05

Angles

2nd off layoff 13% -27% Patty Leaney: 2nd off layoff 4% -79%

Record

	Sts	1st	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	7	1	1	14%	79.6
2026	1	0	0	0%	71.8
2025	6	1	1	17%	79.6
EMD	1	0	0	0%	71.8
Dirt	7	1	1	14%	79.6
Sprint	6	1	1	17%	79.6
Wet	2	1	0	50%	79.6

WORKS 07-26 EMD 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 47 ★07-02 EMD 5 Furlongs 1:03.40 B 31 ★06-25 EMD 5 Furlongs 1:00.60 B 67 06-18 EMD 4 Furlongs :48.20 B 55 ★06-11 EMD 3 Furlongs :35.80 B 46 04-27 EMD 5 Furlongs 1:00.00 B 69

SIRESungold 81 55%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-10 272d·7.8×	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	79	4	4	12.0		88	82	96	72	63	77	7.73	Talliyah Timentwa
2025-10-11 28d	HST	6.5f	dirt	Sloppy	Mdn Clm	76	1	6	0.0	F	91	55	62	80	78	76	1.05	Kimal Santo
2025-09-13 49d	HST	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	76	3	9	1.8	F	90	95	101	78	75	74	3.0	Kimal Santo
2025-07-26 35d	HST	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	77	4	4	9.0	F	101	74	40	77	73	74	8.0	Kimal Santo
2025-06-21 21d	HST	8.5f	dirt	Good	Mdn	79	5	6	11.5	F	67	nan	76	76	65	73	31.9	Silvino Morales
2025-05-31 13d	HST	6.5f	dirt	Sloppy	Mdn	83	5	5	21.0	F	92	88	87	69	56	76	23.0	Learie Seecharan
2025-05-18	HST	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn	82	5	5	10.8	F	116	92	97	78	72	79	15.65	Learie Seecharan

2 Giant Impact

4G 125 lbs L P

1.6%

MODEL %

50-1

MODEL FAIR

-4.7

EDGE vs ML

15/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig74 -9 vs par

Needs +9~2% run that

Class77.0 -3.5 vs race -3.4 gap

MC4.9% fair 20-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.23

Faced78.8 +1.3 vs today

Pace EP85.9 best 99.1

Pace LP84.7 best 98.6

Energy0.54

Connections

JockAlex Anayaκ -0.1

TrnKimberley Johnstonκ 0.06

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	20	1	2	3	5%	81.1
2026	7	1	1	2	14%	77.8
2025	8	0	0	1	0%	68.7
EMD	5	0	1	2	0%	77.8
Dirt	20	1	2	3	5%	81.1
Sprint	9	1	1	2	11%	81.1
Wet	3	0	0	0	0%	75.9

WORKS 03-05 TUP 4 Furlongs :46.80 H 68

SIREVolatile 85 91%ile turf 13%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-24 19d	EMD	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	81	5	6	17.2	F	—	—	—	71	63	78	19.49	Alex Anaya
2026-07-05 15d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	77	3	6	6.5	F	94	91	90	75	66	78	0.96	Adrian Castellanos
2026-06-20 14d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	79	2	6	4.5	F	99	nan	99	77	79	77	3.26	Kevin Krigger
2026-06-06 14d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Muddy	Clm	78	4	7	1.8	F	82	86	94	75	78	75	11.74	Karlo Lopez
2026-05-23 26d	EMD	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	79	3	7	1.0	F	84	90	98	78	79	72	17.36	Karlo Lopez
2026-04-27 28d	TUP	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	74	1	6	0.0	F	88	72	57	76	76	70	7.1	Cash Ramey
2026-03-30 167d·11.1×	TUP	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	75	6	6	6.5	F	90	97	87	73	73	69	19.8	Cash Ramey
2025-10-14 13d	FL	8.318181818181818f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	75	6	8	30.8	S	110	98	83	62	54	70	40.78	Christian Navarro
2025-10-01 15d	FL	8.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	72	4	8	17.8	S	86	98	91	68	64	71	61.0	Christian Navarro
2025-09-16	FL	8.318181818181818f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	77	7	10	22.5	S	90	92	88	69	70	72	103.71	Christian Navarro

3 Ophir Gold

3G 121 lbs L S

0.3%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-6.0

EDGE vs ML

15/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig75 -8 vs par

Needs +18~<1% run that

Class74.2 -6.3 vs race +0.5 gap

MC3.4% fair 30-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.35

Faced73.5 -4.0 vs today

Pace EP83.2 best 94.7

Pace LP82.4 best 91.4

Energy0.51

Connections

JockBlake Nunnallyκ 0.1was Kiaman McGregor · +0.3

TrnKendra Lyonsκ 0.08was Shane Peacock · -0.8

J×T9 · 0% win · 56% ITM

Angles

Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	1st	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	3	1	1	33%	70.1
2026	3	1	1	33%	70.1
2025	0	0	0	—	—
EMD	0	0	0	—	—
Dirt	3	1	1	33%	70.1
Sprint	3	1	1	33%	70.1
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 06-28 EMD 4 Furlongs :53.40 B 9

SIREPassion For Gold 81 50%ile turf 9%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-04 48d	GRP	4.5f	dirt	Fast	Alw	78	3	5	5.5		—	—	—	58	37	72	5.4	Kiaman McGregor
2026-05-17 15d	LA	4.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	71	1	5	0.0		95	nan	81	70	63	70	11.7	Henry Lopez
2026-05-02	LA	4.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	71	7	8	14.2	F	82	94	91	67	53	71	59.4	Cesar Ortega