EMD 2026-08-01 · US Racing

TRACKS · 2026-08-01

CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO

▸ How to read a horse block

MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σ_α. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.

R1 D R2 D R3 D R4 D R5 D R6 D R7 D R8 D

Purse $25,000. One Mile. (Includes $5,000 – MITEC - Muckleshoot Tribal Contribution). For Three Year Olds And Upward Which Have Not Won $15,000 Once Other Than Maiden, Claiming, Starter, Or State Bred In 2026 Or Which Have Never Won Three Races Or Claiming Price $40,000. Three Year Olds, 121 Lbs.; Older, 125 Lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Other Than Maiden, Claiming, Or Starter At A Mile Or Over In 2026 Allowed 3 Lbs. Claiming Price $40,000 (Maiden Races, Claiming Races And Starters Races Not Considered In Eligibility And Allowances) Race will not be used with FEWER than 6 entries.

TODAY'S CONTENDERS		WIN% · FAIR / ML	QIK%	STY	P1C	CLASS	PROJ	COND	LAST	SUS	J×T
1	Slew's Tiz Whiz ✓	23% 7-2 / 8/5	28.1%	S	5th/1w	90 +4.1	93¹-2	96¹	96²	—	spr→rte	14%	1∠
2	Rondelito	3% 30-1 / 6/1	8.1%	EP	2nd/1w	88 +2.2	90³-5	89⁴	90⁴	80³	L3★goldJ+0.8spr→rte	—	2∠
3	Cap It Daddy ✓	68% 1-2 / 4/1	37.1%	EP	1st/2w	88 +1.7	93¹-2	—	97¹	86²	★goldspr→rte▲cls	33%	✓+5.2★PRIME1∠
4	Senor Tequilas ✓	0% 99-1 / 12/1	4.0%	S	4th/1w	85 -1.2	84⁶-11	85⁵	85⁶	—		29%	2∠
5	He's Not Talking ✓	2% 50-1 / 5/1	9.1%	P	3rd/2w	89 +2.9	89⁴-6	94²	88⁵	89¹	L3★goldspr→rte▲cls	17%	1∠
6	Veritas Aequitas ✓	3% 30-1 / 3/1	13.6%	C	6th/3w	88 +2.5	89⁴-6	92³	92³	—		14%	1∠

Pace Projector LONE SPEED front favored 1st¼ 24.1s par 24.1 EP/LP

ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 3 LS★ ⚡ » 103/102 Cap It Daddy 2 97/104 Rondelito 5 » 100/98 He's Not Talking 4 106/95 Senor Tequilas 1 C★ 127/109 Slew's Tiz Whiz 6 »» 92/101 Veritas Aequitas

On the lead: 3 · race sets up for front

3 Cap It Daddy ★ PRIME

4G 122 lbs L EP

68.2%

MODEL %

1-2

MODEL FAIR

+48.2

EDGE vs ML

4/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig93 -2 vs par

Needs fits levelbase 95 vs par 95

Class87.5 +1.7 vs race +5.4 gap

MC26.9% fair 5-2

ConfTIGHT σα 0.29

Faced85.0 -3.2 vs today

Pace EP85.0 best 102.6

Pace LP84.5 best 101.9

Energy0.53

Connections

JockSilvio Amadorκ 0.14

TrnElodio Madrigalκ -0.08

J×T21 · 33% win · 52% ITM

Angles

Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	9	4	3	1	44%	97.4
2026	3	1	2	0	33%	97.4
2025	6	3	1	1	50%	89.8
EMD	9	4	3	1	44%	97.4
Dirt	9	4	3	1	44%	97.4
Route	0	0	0	0	—	—
Wet	1	0	0	0	0%	84.6

WORKS 06-15 EMD 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 53 05-04 EMD 5 Furlongs 1:02.60 B 38 04-27 EMD 4 Furlongs :51.40 B 28 04-20 EMD 4 Furlongs :49.80 B 49

SIREDads Caps 81 55%ile turf 12%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-11 14d	EMD	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Str Alw	84	1	6	0.0	F	103	nan	70	97	106	87	1.12	Silvio Amador
2026-06-27 35d	EMD	6.5f	dirt	Fast	AOC	87	2	7	1.8	F	83	nan	77	94	98	86	6.73	Silvio Amador
2026-05-23 265d·9.1×	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Str Alw	86	2	5	0.8	F	73	90	90	94	98	86	1.86	Silvio Amador
2025-08-31 14d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	84	1	6	0.0	F	89	89	102	88	92	85	0.63	Silvio Amador
2025-08-17 15d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	84	1	6	0.0	F	92	89	96	90	101	84	4.91	Silvio Amador
2025-08-02 42d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	82	2	7	0.1	F	82	63	nan	85	85	84	9.06	Silvio Amador
2025-06-21 26d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Wet Fast	Clm	82	4	7	2.5	F	96	93	88	85	81	83	3.33	Francisco Duran
2025-05-26 29d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	81	3	7	2.5	F	86	85	84	85	81	81	5.16	Francisco Duran
2025-04-27	EMD	5.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	76	1	6	0.0	F	107	92	78	84	77	76	2.68	Francisco Duran

1 Slew's Tiz Whiz

8G 122 lbs L S

23.0%

MODEL %

7-2

MODEL FAIR

-15.5

EDGE vs ML

8/5

M/L

Form

Proj Fig93 -2 vs par

Needs +1~40% run that

Class89.9 +4.1 vs race +3.1 gap

MC32.6% fair 2-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.29

Faced88.9 +0.7 vs today

Pace EP89.4 best 126.7

Pace LP88.9 best 108.6

Energy0.51

Connections

JockFrank Alvaradoκ 0.09

TrnTom Wenzelκ 0.27

J×T14 · 14% win · 79% ITM

Angles

Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	23	7	6	5	30%	97.0
2026	3	0	1	2	0%	96.5
2025	5	3	1	0	60%	97.0
EMD	23	7	6	5	30%	97.0
Dirt	23	7	6	5	30%	97.0
Route	8	3	1	3	38%	96.0
Wet	1	0	0	0	0%	95.8

WORKS 07-10 EMD 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 49 06-13 EMD 4 Furlongs :47.80 B 62 05-18 EMD 5 Furlongs :59.00 B 77 05-10 EMD 5 Furlongs :59.80 B 77 ◆A Skip In The Park·89 05-03 EMD 4 Furlongs :48.60 B 52 04-26 EMD 4 Furlongs :50.60 B 33

SIRESlew'S Tiznow 81 51%ile turf 17%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-19 28d	EMD	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Stk	89	2	6	3.2	F	—	—	—	96	100	90	4.58	Frank Alvarado
2026-06-21 28d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	88	3	5	5.0		127	87	73	93	94	90	3.51	Frank Alvarado
2026-05-24 259d·9.2×	EMD	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Alw	89	3	5	5.5	F	100	99	107	93	92	92	2.53	Frank Alvarado
2025-09-07 21d	EMD	8.5f	dirt	Fast	Stk	90	1	5	0.0	F	84	83	90	93	102	92	2.82	Julien Couton
2025-08-17 28d	EMD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	88	6	10	5.8	F	64	88	109	94	99	91	4.92	Julien Couton
2025-07-20 28d	EMD	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Stk	90	1	9	0.0	F	101	nan	92	97	106	91	2.22	Julien Couton
2025-06-22 36d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	90	2	8	0.8	F	92	86	98	93	91	91	2.7	Julien Couton
2025-05-17 259d·9.2×	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	87	1	8	0.0	F	82	nan	81	97	102	91	1.11	Julien Couton
2024-08-31 20d	EMD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	88	2	4	2.0		84	73	79	95	104	92	0.57	Jose Zunino
2024-08-11	EMD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	91	3	11	1.5	F	65	88	111	96	104	91	7.23	Jose Zunino

6 Veritas Aequitas

5G 125 lbs L C

3.4%

MODEL %

30-1

MODEL FAIR

-21.6

EDGE vs ML

3/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig89 -6 vs par

Needs +6~6% run that

Class88.3 +2.5 vs race +0.4 gap

MC13.0% fair 7-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.24

Faced86.8 -1.4 vs today

Pace EP81.1 best 91.8

Pace LP80.1 best 101.4

Energy0.51

Connections

JockAlex Cruzκ 0.07was Frank Alvarado · -0.2

TrnDan Markleκ 0.28

J×T7 · 14% win · 43% ITM

Angles

Alex Cruz / Dan Markle 22% -20%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	31	6	5	6	19%	91.8
2026	5	1	1	1	20%	91.8
2025	10	2	2	1	20%	90.6
EMD	12	2	3	2	17%	91.8
Dirt	24	5	4	4	21%	91.8
Route	23	5	3	4	22%	91.8
Wet	1	0	0	1	0%	86.4

WORKS 07-27 EMD 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 50 07-13 EMD 5 Furlongs 1:00.40 B 62 07-03 EMD 4 Furlongs :47.60 B 65 06-01 EMD 4 Furlongs :47.80 B 60 05-25 EMD 4 Furlongs :47.80 H 63 ★05-08 EMD 4 Furlongs :47.00 H 73

SIREKeen Ice 83 73%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-19 28d	EMD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	87	1	5	0.0		—	—	—	92	104	88	2.07	Frank Alvarado
2026-06-21 15d	EMD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	86	4	7	2.8	F	87	nan	62	90	91	87	2.18	Kevin Krigger
2026-06-06 21d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Muddy	AOC	86	3	5	4.2		82	98	101	86	88	87	3.28	Frank Alvarado
2026-05-16 84d·3.0×	EMD	5.5f	dirt	Fast	AOC	86	2	6	3.0	F	92	81	56	91	96	87	5.43	Frank Alvarado
2026-02-21 78d·2.8×	SA	6.5f	turf	Good	Clm	88	10	12	8.8	F	81	nan	80	87	88	88	67.9	Kazushi Kimura
2025-12-05 19d	LRC	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Str Alw	89	4	6	4.0		67	88	101	87	93	87	20.4	Kyle Frey
2025-11-16 70d·2.5×	DMR	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Str Alw	87	6	9	7.0	F	88	nan	93	85	92	87	7.2	Kyle Frey
2025-09-07 15d	EMD	8.5f	dirt	Fast	Stk	90	5	5	2.2	F	81	85	87	89	100	86	24.1	Frank Alvarado
2025-08-23 28d	EMD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	87	5	9	5.0	F	77	86	99	88	94	86	3.84	Frank Alvarado
2025-07-26	EMD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	87	4	7	10.5	F	80	88	95	88	93	87	16.83	Frank Alvarado

2 Rondelito

4G 122 lbs L EP

2.6%

MODEL %

30-1

MODEL FAIR

-11.7

EDGE vs ML

6/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig90 -5 vs par

Needs +5~10% run that

Class88.0 +2.2 vs race +1.9 gap

MC15.3% fair 6-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.29

Faced87.5 -0.7 vs today

Pace EP83.4 best 96.9

Pace LP86.8 best 103.6

Energy0.51

Connections

JockBlake Nunnallyκ 0.1was Carlos Montalvo · +0.8

TrnSteve Hensonκ 0.07

Angles

Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23% 3rd off layoff 14% -22%

Record

	Sts	1st	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	12	5	1	42%	90.6
2026	2	0	0	0%	90.4
2025	7	5	1	71%	90.6
EMD	2	0	0	0%	90.4
Dirt	12	5	1	42%	90.6
Route	4	3	0	75%	88.8
Wet	3	0	0	0%	88.8

WORKS 07-26 EMD 4 Furlongs :51.00 B 31 07-13 EMD 4 Furlongs :48.40 B 55 ★06-13 EMD 5 Furlongs :58.60 B 86 05-17 EMD 5 Furlongs 1:00.40 B 66 05-10 EMD 5 Furlongs :58.80 H 85 05-01 EMD 5 Furlongs 1:00.80 B 64

SIRELent 80 33%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-21 28d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	88	5	5	6.5		71	99	89	90	92	88	20.5	Carlos Montalvo
2026-05-24 218d·7.3×	EMD	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Alw	89	4	5	6.0	F	97	95	104	90	91	89	13.7	Carlos Montalvo
2025-10-18 35d	HST	9.0f	dirt	Sloppy	Stk	88	5	5	2.2	S	86	87	100	89	88	89	6.0	Kimal Santo
2025-09-13 40d	HST	9.0f	dirt	Fast	G3	87	1	9	0.0	F	78	93	77	89	95	87	5.35	Kimal Santo
2025-08-04 30d	HST	8.5f	dirt	Fast	Stk	85	1	6	0.0		95	nan	84	88	85	86	1.7	Kimal Santo
2025-07-05 21d	HST	8.5f	dirt	Fast	Stk	85	1	4	0.0		88	87	65	87	88	84	3.1	Kimal Santo
2025-06-14 27d	HST	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Stk	83	1	6	0.0	F	91	82	76	91	87	82	8.0	Kimal Santo
2025-05-18 7d	HST	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn	82	1	5	0.0	F	92	nan	92	88	85	82	1.95	Kimal Santo
2025-05-11 225d·7.5×	HST	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn	80	3	4	2.0	S	84	87	92	84	79	81	4.05	Kimal Santo
2024-09-28	HST	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn	82	6	9	4.0	S	85	81	88	76	65	82	5.65	Amadeo Perez

5 He's Not Talking

4G 122 lbs L P

2.3%

MODEL %

50-1

MODEL FAIR

-14.4

EDGE vs ML

5/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig89 -6 vs par

Needs +6~6% run that

Class88.7 +2.9 vs race -0.1 gap

MC10.8% fair 8-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.31

Faced86.1 -2.1 vs today

Pace EP86.2 best 100.1

Pace LP87.5 best 98.1

Energy0.52

Connections

JockKevin Kriggerκ 0.1was Silvio Amador · -0.3

TrnDoug McPheeκ 0.33

J×T6 · 17% win · 50% ITM

Angles

3rd off layoff 14% -22%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	12	3	4	1	25%	94.1
2026	2	1	1	0	50%	88.2
2025	7	1	2	1	14%	94.1
EMD	12	3	4	1	25%	94.1
Dirt	12	3	4	1	25%	94.1
Route	3	1	0	0	33%	94.1
Wet	0	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-27 EMD 3 Furlongs :35.20 H 52 ★07-13 EMD 4 Furlongs :46.00 H 79 06-29 EMD 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 54 06-08 EMD 3 Furlongs :37.20 B 37 05-18 EMD 3 Furlongs :35.60 H 47 05-11 EMD 5 Furlongs 1:01.20 B 55

SIREBrody'S Cause 80 41%ile turf 9%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-14 22d	EMD	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Alw	84	1	5	0.0	F	89	nan	89	88	93	89	1.56	Silvio Amador
2026-05-23 258d·12.3×	EMD	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Alw	83	2	4	0.2	F	81	84	91	87	86	89	0.25	Kevin Krigger
2025-09-07 21d	EMD	8.5f	dirt	Fast	Stk	90	4	5	2.2	F	92	92	86	91	100	88	2.56	Silvio Amador
2025-08-17 21d	EMD	8.5f	dirt	Fast	Stk	87	1	7	0.0	F	88	89	98	94	106	87	8.53	Kevin Krigger
2025-07-27 15d	EMD	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Stk	86	3	9	7.0	F	100	83	95	92	89	88	7.64	Kevin Krigger
2025-07-12 13d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	86	5	6	4.8	F	82	99	96	87	84	88	0.96	Silvio Amador
2025-06-29 28d	EMD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	87	5	7	7.8	F	95	95	86	91	97	89	6.48	Silvio Amador
2025-06-01 21d	EMD	5.5f	dirt	Fast	AOC	85	2	5	0.1	F	88	101	105	89	89	88	0.35	Juan Gutierrez
2025-05-11 259d·12.3×	EMD	5.5f	dirt	Fast	AOC	88	2	7	5.5	F	83	82	72	92	98	89	6.91	Juan Gutierrez
2024-08-25	EMD	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Stk	86	1	8	0.0	F	96	86	89	90	84	87	3.64	Juan Gutierrez

4 Senor Tequilas

3C 118 lbs L S

0.5%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-7.2

EDGE vs ML

12/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig84 -11 vs par

Needs +9~2% run that

Class84.6 -1.2 vs race -1.1 gap

MC1.4% fair 50-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.19

Faced84.9 -3.3 vs today

Pace EP82.7 best 106.2

Pace LP81.6 best 94.7

Energy0.52

Connections

JockAdrian Castellanosκ 0.08was Kevin Krigger · -0.2

TrnJorge Rosalesκ 0.24

J×T180 · 29% win · 51% ITM

Angles

Adrian Castellanos / Jorge Rosales 28% +27% Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	15	2	1	2	13%	87.1
2026	10	2	1	2	20%	87.1
2025	5	0	0	0	0%	80.6
EMD	4	1	0	1	25%	87.1
Dirt	13	2	1	2	15%	87.1
Route	3	0	0	1	0%	85.3
Wet	1	0	0	0	0%	83.7

WORKS 05-28 EMD 5 Furlongs :59.40 B 71 05-17 EMD 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 52 03-16 TUP 4 Furlongs :48.60 H 56

SIREMisremembered 80 41%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-19 14d	EMD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	86	3	6	6.2		—	—	—	85	88	84	4.08	Kevin Krigger
2026-07-05 14d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	85	1	6	0.0	F	86	89	88	87	90	82	8.23	Adrian Castellanos
2026-06-21 15d	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	86	4	8	2.5		74	nan	72	87	86	80	30.34	Alex Cruz
2026-06-06 39d·2.6×	EMD	6.0f	dirt	Muddy	AOC	86	5	5	5.8		106	95	95	84	87	78	22.64	Adrian Castellanos
2026-04-28 21d	TUP	7.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	81	4	6	14.8	S	78	78	76	76	68	79	19.6	Cerapio Figueroa
2026-04-07 13d	TUP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	79	6	9	13.0	F	78	75	81	77	70	79	11.0	Cerapio Figueroa
2026-03-25 35d·2.3×	TUP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	83	2	4	6.5		81	90	83	82	87	77	9.2	Cerapio Figueroa
2026-02-18 13d	TUP	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	82	5	8	22.0		47	93	105	74	64	78	9.4	Cerapio Figueroa
2026-02-05 21d	TUP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	78	1	10	0.0		82	72	83	82	75	76	16.4	Cerapio Figueroa
2026-01-15	TUP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	78	3	10	12.0	F	78	91	95	81	73	77	46.2	Cerapio Figueroa