TRACKS · 2026-08-01
CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO
ALL CARDS ↗
▸ How to read a horse block
MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σα. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.
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R4 MAIDEN CLAIMING
EMD 2026-08-01 Five Furlongs DIRT
79
strength
+1.4 fair
79
win par
fig to beat
HONEST PACE
shape
HONEST
early pace
1st¼ 22.6s / par 22.6
BALANCED
field
figs 74.7–82.4
Purse $16,000. Five Furlongs. (Includes $3,200 – MITEC - Muckleshoot Tribal Contribution). For Maidens, Fillies Two Years Old. Weight, 119 Lbs. Claiming Price $25,000, if for $20,000, allowed 2 Lbs.
TODAY'S CONTENDERS WIN% · FAIR / ML QIK% STY P1C CLASS PROJ COND LAST SUS J×T
1 Out Til Midnight 1% 99-1 / 8/1 5.7% 3rd/1w — 804+1 — — — 0% 1∠
2 Express Girl 41% 3-2 / 3/1 28.2% 1st/1w 82 +4.6 821+3 781 781 — T+1.4 — ★VALUE1∠
3 She's a Lethal One 1% 99-1 / 5/1 8.4% 4th/1w — 812+2 — — — — 1∠
4 Saint Indie 53% 4-5 / 2/1 37.0% C 6th/1w 79 +1.4 795+0 762 762 — L2 21% ⚠-3.0★PRIME3∠
5 Spicy Coronarita 1% 99-1 / 7/2 11.0% 5th/2w — 812+2 — — — — 1∠
6 Jess Mo Money 3% 30-1 / 9/2 9.7% 2nd/3w 77 -0.2 756-4 703 703 — J-1.9 — ⚠-1.41∠
Pace Projector HONEST PACE 1st¼ 22.6s par 22.6 EP/LP
ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 2 Express Girl 6 »» Jess Mo Money 1 Out Til Midnight 3 She's a Lethal One 5 » Spicy Coronarita 4 LP 94/87 Saint Indie
4 Saint Indie ★ PRIME THIN DATA
2F 117 lbs C
53.0%
MODEL %
4-5
MODEL FAIR
+19.7
EDGE vs ML
2/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig79 0 vs par
Needs +5~15% run that
Class79.0 +1.4 vs race -0.3 gap
MC15.1% fair 6-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.37
Faced80.0 +1.0 vs today
Pace EP83.4 best 93.7
Pace LP81.7 best 86.7
Energy0.48
Connections
JockBlake Nunnallyκ 0.1
TrnHoward Gibsonκ 0.25
J×T28 · 21% win · 46% ITM
Angles
Howard Gibson: 2nd off layoff 24% +21% Blake Nunnally / Howard Gibson 23% +18% 2nd off layoff 13% -27%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 20100%76.2
2026 20100%76.2
2025 0000——
EMD 10100%76.2
Dirt 20100%76.2
Sprint 20100%76.2
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-03 EMD 5 Furlongs 1:01.60 B 57 ◆Swingin Inthe Rain 06-26 EMD 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 59 ◆Mattie Goincoastal 06-08 EMD 4 Furlongs :49.80 B 46 ◆Swingin Inthe Rain 05-24 EMD 3 Furlongs :36.60 B 41 05-15 EMD 4 Furlongs :48.20 B G 59 ◆Black Shimmer ★05-08 EMD 3 Furlongs :37.60 B 37
SIRECoast Guard 82 60%ile turf 7%
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-18 101d EMD 5.0f dirt Fast Mdn Clm 78 2 6 0.1 F — — — 76 59 75 1.54 Blake Nunnally
2026-04-08 TUP 4.5f dirt Fast — 82 6 7 15.5 F 94 nan 87 72 49 82 3.2 Blake Nunnally
2 Express Girl ★ VALUE THIN DATA
2F 119 lbs
40.7%
MODEL %
3-2
MODEL FAIR
+15.7
EDGE vs ML
3/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig82 +3 vs par
Needs +2~31% run that
Class82.2 +4.6 vs race +0.2 gap
MC30.1% fair 5-2
ConfNORMAL σα 0.39
Faced78.2 -0.8 vs today
Connections
JockSilvio Amadorκ 0.14was Kevin Krigger · +0.4
TrnV Gibsonκ 0.0was Vince Gibson · +1.4
Angles
2nd career start 13% -28%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 10000%77.5
2026 10000%77.5
2025 0000——
EMD 10000%77.5
Dirt 10000%77.5
Sprint 10000%77.5
Wet 0000——
WORKS ★07-10 EMD 5 Furlongs 1:00.80 B 60 06-29 EMD 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 52 06-21 EMD 4 Furlongs :49.80 B G 41 06-14 EMD 3 Furlongs :36.40 B 44 06-08 EMD 3 Furlongs :38.40 B 29 06-01 EMD 2 Furlongs :25.80 B 31
SIREJersey Town 82 66%ile turf 13%
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-18 EMD 5.0f dirt Fast Mdn Clm 78 4 6 0.8 F — — — 78 58 78 8.45 Kevin Krigger
6 Jess Mo Money THIN DATA
2F 119 lbs
2.7%
MODEL %
30-1
MODEL FAIR
-15.5
EDGE vs ML
9/2
M/L
Form
Proj Fig75 -4 vs par
Needs +8~6% run that
Class77.4 -0.2 vs race -2.7 gap
MC6.3% fair 15-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.44
Faced78.2 -0.8 vs today
Connections
JockLenny Seecharanκ -0.06was Silvio Amador · -1.9
TrnSteve Bullockκ 0.02
Angles
2nd career start 13% -28%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 10000%70.5
2026 10000%70.5
2025 0000——
EMD 10000%70.5
Dirt 10000%70.5
Sprint 10000%70.5
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-03 EMD 5 Furlongs 1:01.80 B 51 06-25 EMD 5 Furlongs 1:02.60 B 44 ★06-18 EMD 4 Furlongs :48.00 H G 64 ◆Pure Dynamite 06-11 EMD 4 Furlongs :48.60 B G 54 ★06-04 EMD 3 Furlongs :37.00 B G 50 ◆Pure Dynamite 05-28 EMD 3 Furlongs :37.00 B 39 ◆Pure Dynamite
SIREJess Mo 86 94%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-18 EMD 5.0f dirt Fast Mdn Clm 78 5 6 8.0 F — — — 70 48 78 1.97 Silvio Amador
1 Out Til Midnight
2F 119 lbs
1.2%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-9.9
EDGE vs ML
8/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig80 +1 vs par
MC13.8% fair 6-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockKevin Orozcoκ 0.02
TrnFaustino Patinoκ -0.07
J×T7 · 0% win · 0% ITM
Angles
Debut 11% -25%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
EMD 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-26 EMD 4 Furlongs :47.40 H G 67 07-19 EMD 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 50 07-13 EMD 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 46 06-13 EMD 3 Furlongs :37.40 B 37 05-29 EMD 3 Furlongs :37.40 B 35 ★05-22 EMD 2 Furlongs :24.40 B 43
SIREOutlash 80 38%ile
No prior races in database
3 She's a Lethal One
2F 119 lbs
1.1%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-15.6
EDGE vs ML
5/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig81 +2 vs par
MC17.7% fair 9-2
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockKevin Kriggerκ 0.1
TrnMelissa Ledfordκ 0.03
Angles
Debut 11% -25%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
EMD 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-26 EMD 4 Furlongs :52.20 B G 21 07-22 EMD 2 Furlongs :25.60 B G 37 07-19 EMD 4 Furlongs :50.60 B 34
SIREMystic Guide 100 100%ile 1st-out 0% (3)
No prior races in database
5 Spicy Coronarita
2F 117 lbs
1.1%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-21.1
EDGE vs ML
7/2
M/L
Form
Proj Fig81 +2 vs par
MC16.9% fair 5-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockAngel Cruzκ 0.07
TrnMelissa Ledfordκ 0.03
Angles
Debut 11% -25%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
EMD 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS ★07-26 EMD 4 Furlongs :46.20 H G 78 ★07-22 EMD 2 Furlongs :24.40 B G 44 07-19 EMD 4 Furlongs :50.60 B 32 07-10 EMD 3 Furlongs :35.60 B 48 ★07-03 EMD 2 Furlongs :24.20 B 45
SIRECoast Guard 82 60%ile 1st-out 17% (60) turf 7%
No prior races in database