TRACKS · 2026-08-01
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CNL · 2026-08-01
Today's $100 plan
The model found 10 races out of 12 where it sees a clear edge over the market. Everywhere else the model and the track agree — no reason to bet.
10
Plays
$100
Wagered
+$187
Expected profit
Race 1 · One Mile · Inner turf $12 to win
8 It's Fine
Our model gives this horse a 65% chance to win. The track's morning line implies only 29% — a 36-point gap in our favor. This is the kind of spot that has historically paid off:
Jockey Jareth Loveberry Trainer Hugh McMahon Morning line 5/2 If it wins $30
Race 2 · Six And One Half Furlongs · Dirt $4 to win
1 Jimmy's Dailys
Our model gives this horse a 52% chance to win. The track's morning line implies only 42% — a 10-point gap in our favor. This is the kind of spot that has historically paid off:
Jockey Samuel Marin Trainer Jose D'Angelo Morning line 7/5 If it wins $6
Race 4 · Five And One Half Furlongs · Inner turf $15 to win
1 Roja
Our model gives this horse a 82% chance to win. The track's morning line implies only 50% — a 32-point gap in our favor. This is the kind of spot that has historically paid off:
Jockey Manuel Franco Trainer H. Motion Morning line 1/1 If it wins $15
Race 6 · Seven Furlongs · Dirt $23 to win
2 Mashallah
Our model gives this horse a 95% chance to win. The track's morning line implies only 45% — a 49-point gap in our favor. This is the kind of spot that has historically paid off:
Jockey Tyler Gaffalione Trainer Brendan Walsh Morning line 6/5 If it wins $28
Race 7 · Seven Furlongs · Dirt $11 to win
5 Illuminare
Our model gives this horse a 56% chance to win. The track's morning line implies only 18% — a 38-point gap in our favor. This is the kind of spot that has historically paid off:
Jockey Tyler Gaffalione Trainer Todd Pletcher Morning line 9/2 If it wins $50
Race 8 · Five And One Half Furlongs · Outer turf $5 to win
13 My Boy Prince
Our model gives this horse a 41% chance to win. The track's morning line implies only 25% — a 16-point gap in our favor. This is the kind of spot that has historically paid off:
Jockey John Velazquez Trainer Mark Casse Morning line 3/1 If it wins $15
Race 9 · One And One Sixteenth Miles · Inner turf $15 to win
6 Infiltrate
Our model gives this horse a 66% chance to win. The track's morning line implies only 9% — a 57-point gap in our favor. This is the kind of spot that has historically paid off:
Jockey Tyler Gaffalione Trainer Brendan Walsh Morning line 10/1 If it wins $150
Race 10 · One And Three Sixteenth Miles · Outer turf $5 to win
8 Stellify
Our model gives this horse a 42% chance to win. The track's morning line implies only 25% — a 16-point gap in our favor. This is the kind of spot that has historically paid off:
Jockey Manuel Franco Trainer Brad Cox Morning line 3/1 If it wins $15
Race 11 · One And One Fourth Miles · Outer turf $5 to win
6 Test Score
Our model gives this horse a 35% chance to win. The track's morning line implies only 18% — a 16-point gap in our favor. This is the kind of spot that has historically paid off:
Jockey Manuel Franco Trainer H. Motion Morning line 9/2 If it wins $22
Race 12 · One Mile · Inner turf $5 to win
13 Sound Bite
Our model gives this horse a 29% chance to win. The track's morning line implies only 11% — a 18-point gap in our favor. This is the kind of spot that has historically paid off: medium-confidence pick at generous odds (+29% return in backtest).
Jockey Samuel Marin Trainer Kerri Raven Morning line 8/1 If it wins $40
Skipped 2 races with no meaningful edge.
Plan generated by a Bayesian speed-figure model. Probabilities are estimates. Sizes use fractional Kelly on morning-line odds, scaled to the $100 budget. Gamble responsibly.