TRACKS · 2026-08-01
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MTH · 2026-08-01
Today's $100 plan
The model found 7 races out of 8 where it sees a clear edge over the market. Everywhere else the model and the track agree — no reason to bet.
7
Plays
$100
Wagered
+$153
Expected profit
Race 1 · One And One Sixteenth Miles · Turf $26 to win
1 Hop to It
Our model gives this horse a 79% chance to win. The track's morning line implies only 36% — a 44-point gap in our favor. This is the kind of spot that has historically paid off:
Jockey Edwin Gonzalez Trainer Tim Woolley Morning line 9/5 If it wins $47
Race 2 · Six Furlongs · Dirt $9 to win
2 Mystical Merlin
Our model gives this horse a 36% chance to win. The track's morning line implies only 18% — a 18-point gap in our favor. This is the kind of spot that has historically paid off:
Jockey Jose Ferrer Trainer Chuck Spina Morning line 9/2 If it wins $40
Race 3 · One Mile · Dirt $8 to win
6 Rachel Caroline
Our model gives this horse a 39% chance to win. The track's morning line implies only 25% — a 14-point gap in our favor. This is the kind of spot that has historically paid off:
Jockey Chantal Sutherland Trainer James Frangella, Jr. Morning line 3/1 If it wins $24
Race 4 · Six Furlongs · Dirt $9 to win
1 My Man Woody
Our model gives this horse a 38% chance to win. The track's morning line implies only 20% — a 18-point gap in our favor. This is the kind of spot that has historically paid off:
Jockey Abner Adorno Trainer Carlos Caban Morning line 4/1 If it wins $36
Race 5 · Five And One Half Furlongs · Turf $21 to win
5 Sweet Brown Sugar
Our model gives this horse a 58% chance to win. The track's morning line implies only 14% — a 44-point gap in our favor. This is the kind of spot that has historically paid off:
Jockey Christopher Elliott Trainer Rob Atras Morning line 6/1 If it wins $126
Race 6 · One Mile · Dirt $19 to win
1 Confabulation
Our model gives this horse a 59% chance to win. The track's morning line implies only 22% — a 37-point gap in our favor. This is the kind of spot that has historically paid off:
Jockey Edwin Gonzalez Trainer Wayne Potts Morning line 7/2 If it wins $66
Race 8 · One Mile · Dirt $8 to win
4 Thorsness
Our model gives this horse a 42% chance to win. The track's morning line implies only 29% — a 13-point gap in our favor. This is the kind of spot that has historically paid off:
Jockey Luis Rivera, Jr. Trainer Richard Dutrow, Jr. Morning line 5/2 If it wins $20
Skipped 1 race with no meaningful edge.
Plan generated by a Bayesian speed-figure model. Probabilities are estimates. Sizes use fractional Kelly on morning-line odds, scaled to the $100 budget. Gamble responsibly.