TRACKS · 2026-08-01
CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO
ALL CARDS ↗
EVD · 2026-08-01
Today's $100 plan
The model found 4 races out of 9 where it sees a clear edge over the market. Everywhere else the model and the track agree — no reason to bet.
4
Plays
$100
Wagered
+$125
Expected profit
Race 2 · Six Furlongs · Dirt $16 to win
1 The Girl in Red
Our model gives this horse a 44% chance to win. The track's morning line implies only 29% — a 15-point gap in our favor. This is the kind of spot that has historically paid off:
Jockey Timothy Thornton Trainer W. Calhoun Morning line 5/2 If it wins $40
Race 3 · About Seven And One Half Furlongs · Turf $23 to win
7 Coattails
Our model gives this horse a 38% chance to win. The track's morning line implies only 11% — a 27-point gap in our favor. This is the kind of spot that has historically paid off:
Jockey Casey Fusilier Trainer Paul Duhon Morning line 8/1 If it wins $184
Race 8 · Five And One Half Furlongs · Dirt $44 to win
3 Hes Steelin Mylady
Our model gives this horse a 79% chance to win. The track's morning line implies only 36% — a 44-point gap in our favor. This is the kind of spot that has historically paid off:
Jockey Mitchell Murrill Trainer Aaron West Morning line 9/5 If it wins $79
Race 9 · Six Furlongs · Dirt $17 to win
7 Gold Thief
Our model gives this horse a 51% chance to win. The track's morning line implies only 36% — a 15-point gap in our favor. This is the kind of spot that has historically paid off:
Jockey Thomas Pompell Trainer Lee Thomas Morning line 9/5 If it wins $31
Skipped 5 races with no meaningful edge.
Plan generated by a Bayesian speed-figure model. Probabilities are estimates. Sizes use fractional Kelly on morning-line odds, scaled to the $100 budget. Gamble responsibly.