TRACKS · 2026-08-01
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DMR · 2026-08-01
Today's $100 plan
The model found 11 races out of 11 where it sees a clear edge over the market. Everywhere else the model and the track agree — no reason to bet.
11
Plays
$100
Wagered
+$219
Expected profit
Race 1 · Five Furlongs · Turf $17 to win
2 Sacred Sound
Our model gives this horse a 84% chance to win. The track's morning line implies only 29% — a 56-point gap in our favor. This is the kind of spot that has historically paid off:
Jockey Juan Hernandez Trainer Peter Miller Morning line 5/2 If it wins $42
Race 2 · Five And One Half Furlongs · Dirt $3 to win
2 Oveta's Hobby
Our model gives this horse a 27% chance to win. The track's morning line implies only 17% — a 11-point gap in our favor.
Jockey Edgar Payeras Trainer Sergio Morfin Morning line 5/1 If it wins $15
Race 3 · Five Furlongs · Turf $19 to win
2 Ocean Club
Our model gives this horse a 90% chance to win. The track's morning line implies only 14% — a 75-point gap in our favor. This is the kind of spot that has historically paid off:
Jockey Joe Bravo Trainer George Papaprodromou Morning line 6/1 If it wins $114
Race 4 · Five Furlongs · Dirt $11 to win
7 Keepsmesane
Our model gives this horse a 71% chance to win. The track's morning line implies only 42% — a 30-point gap in our favor. This is the kind of spot that has historically paid off:
Jockey Edwin Maldonado Trainer Doug O'Neill Morning line 7/5 If it wins $15
Race 5 · One And One Sixteenth Miles · Turf $7 to win
7 On the Whim
Our model gives this horse a 46% chance to win. The track's morning line implies only 22% — a 24-point gap in our favor. This is the kind of spot that has historically paid off:
Jockey Tiago Pereira Trainer Dean Pederson Morning line 7/2 If it wins $24
Race 6 · One Mile · Dirt $5 to win
4 D Day Sky
Our model gives this horse a 40% chance to win. The track's morning line implies only 25% — a 15-point gap in our favor. This is the kind of spot that has historically paid off:
Jockey Antonio Fresu Trainer Peter Eurton Morning line 3/1 If it wins $15
Race 7 · One Mile · Turf $8 to win
3 Zuraya
Our model gives this horse a 50% chance to win. The track's morning line implies only 25% — a 25-point gap in our favor. This is the kind of spot that has historically paid off:
Jockey Umberto Rispoli Trainer Michael McCarthy Morning line 3/1 If it wins $24
Race 8 · Six And One Half Furlongs · Dirt $7 to win
2 Duke Silver
Our model gives this horse a 41% chance to win. The track's morning line implies only 11% — a 30-point gap in our favor. This is the kind of spot that has historically paid off:
Jockey Mike Smith Trainer Mark Glatt Morning line 8/1 If it wins $56
Race 9 · Five Furlongs · Turf $3 to win
4 Jaguar Jon
Our model gives this horse a 23% chance to win. The track's morning line implies only 11% — a 12-point gap in our favor.
Jockey Cesar Belmont Trainer Andy Mathis Morning line 8/1 If it wins $24
Race 10 · One And One Sixteenth Miles · Dirt $11 to win
1 Chasten
Our model gives this horse a 58% chance to win. The track's morning line implies only 20% — a 38-point gap in our favor. This is the kind of spot that has historically paid off:
Jockey Florent Geroux Trainer Brad Cox Morning line 4/1 If it wins $44
Race 11 · One And One Sixteenth Miles · Turf $9 to win
2 Lorenzo Bernini
Our model gives this horse a 53% chance to win. The track's morning line implies only 20% — a 33-point gap in our favor. This is the kind of spot that has historically paid off:
Jockey Antonio Fresu Trainer George Papaprodromou Morning line 4/1 If it wins $36
Plan generated by a Bayesian speed-figure model. Probabilities are estimates. Sizes use fractional Kelly on morning-line odds, scaled to the $100 budget. Gamble responsibly.