TRACKS · 2026-08-01
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SAR · 2026-08-01
Today's $100 plan
The model found 9 races out of 12 where it sees a clear edge over the market. Everywhere else the model and the track agree — no reason to bet.
9
Plays
$100
Wagered
+$283
Expected profit
Race 1 · One And One Sixteenth Miles · Inner turf $22 to win
5 Voyager
Our model gives this horse a 97% chance to win. The track's morning line implies only 38% — a 58-point gap in our favor. This is the kind of spot that has historically paid off:
Jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. Trainer Mark Casse Morning line 8/5 If it wins $35
Race 2 · Six Furlongs · Dirt $6 to win
2 Annotate
Our model gives this horse a 39% chance to win. The track's morning line implies only 14% — a 25-point gap in our favor. This is the kind of spot that has historically paid off:
Jockey Ricardo Santana, Jr. Trainer Steven Asmussen Morning line 6/1 If it wins $36
Race 3 · One Mile · Dirt $7 to win
3 Dreamlike
Our model gives this horse a 45% chance to win. The track's morning line implies only 18% — a 27-point gap in our favor. This is the kind of spot that has historically paid off:
Jockey Ricardo Santana, Jr. Trainer Linda Rice Morning line 9/2 If it wins $32
Race 4 · Six Furlongs · Dirt $19 to win
1 Subjugation
Our model gives this horse a 90% chance to win. The track's morning line implies only 18% — a 72-point gap in our favor. This is the kind of spot that has historically paid off:
Jockey Jose Ortiz Trainer Steven Asmussen Morning line 9/2 If it wins $86
Race 5 · Six Furlongs · Dirt $15 to win
1 Charlotte's Beach
Our model gives this horse a 72% chance to win. The track's morning line implies only 11% — a 61-point gap in our favor. This is the kind of spot that has historically paid off:
Jockey Kendrick Carmouche Trainer Mark Casse Morning line 8/1 If it wins $120
Race 7 · One And One Eighth Miles · Dirt $12 to win
1 Sassmaster
Our model gives this horse a 67% chance to win. The track's morning line implies only 25% — a 42-point gap in our favor. This is the kind of spot that has historically paid off:
Jockey Flavien Prat Trainer Todd Pletcher Morning line 3/1 If it wins $36
Race 10 · One And One Eighth Miles · Dirt $5 to win
1 Chip Honcho
Our model gives this horse a 41% chance to win. The track's morning line implies only 25% — a 16-point gap in our favor. This is the kind of spot that has historically paid off:
Jockey Jose Ortiz Trainer Steven Asmussen Morning line 3/1 If it wins $15
Race 11 · Five And One Half Furlongs · Turf $8 to win
5 Blamicker
Our model gives this horse a 41% chance to win. The track's morning line implies only 8% — a 33-point gap in our favor. This is the kind of spot that has historically paid off:
Jockey Kendrick Carmouche Trainer Chris Englehart Morning line 12/1 If it wins $96
Race 12 · One And One Sixteenth Miles · Inner turf $6 to win
2 Music Box
Our model gives this horse a 37% chance to win. The track's morning line implies only 11% — a 26-point gap in our favor. This is the kind of spot that has historically paid off:
Jockey Jaime Rodriguez Trainer Michael Trombetta Morning line 8/1 If it wins $48
Skipped 3 races with no meaningful edge.
Plan generated by a Bayesian speed-figure model. Probabilities are estimates. Sizes use fractional Kelly on morning-line odds, scaled to the $100 budget. Gamble responsibly.