ELP 2026-08-01 · US Racing

TRACKS · 2026-08-01

CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO

▸ How to read a horse block

MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σ_α. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.

R1 D R2 D R3 T R4 D R5 T R6 D R7 T R8 D R9 T R10 T

ELP 2026-08-01 Five And One Half Furlongs TURF

strength

-0.9 fair

win par

fig to beat

LONE SPEED

shape

front favored

HONEST

early pace

1st¼ 22.4s / par 22.4

TOP-HEAVY

field

figs 88.2–96.7

Purse $250,000. Five And One Half Furlongs. (Turf) (Includes $125,000 – KTDF - Kentucky TB Devt Fund). For Fillies And Mares Three-Years-Old And Upward.

TODAY'S CONTENDERS		WIN% · FAIR / ML	QIK%	STY	P1C	CLASS	PROJ	COND	LAST	SUS	J×T
1	Big Trouble	8% 12-1 / 9/2	11.6%	S	12th/1w	95 +0.1	95³-1	93⁷	93⁴	97¹	J+1.1▲cls	—	✓+1.61∠
2	Me Governor	4% 25-1 / 15/1	4.6%	EP	7th/1w	94 -0.8	92⁶-4	94⁶	90⁶	81⁷	T+0.1J-1.9	18%	⚠-1.42∠
3	Rojo Rita	6% 15-1 / 30/1	3.9%	E	5th/1w	91 -4.3	88¹¹-8	95⁴	90⁶	80⁸	J+0.5D→T	—	✓+1.6LS1∠
4	Saturday Flirt	7% 12-1 / 3/1	14.6%	S	8th/1w	95 -0.0	97¹+1	97¹	96¹	79⁹	L1▲cls	25%	3∠
5	Lovely Emma	6% 15-1 / 8/1	7.5%	EP	4th/1w	94 -1.4	93⁵-3	96²	89¹¹	87³	L3★goldJ-0.5	25%	2∠
6	Shirley Ann	20% 4-1 / 15/1	11.1%	EP	3rd/2w	90 -5.1	94⁴-2	95⁴	95³	91²	L2▲cls	—	⚠-2.9LS2∠
7	Satin Blue	1% 99-1 / 15/1	3.2%	S	10th/1w	94 -0.9	91⁸-5	93⁷	83¹²	83⁵	J-1.1	13%	⚠-1.42∠
8	Cloe	28% 5-2 / 8/1	16.5%	EP	6th/3w	97 +1.8	96²+0	96²	96¹	74¹⁰	L3★goldJ-0.8▲cls	11%	★VALUE2∠
9	Dala	8% 12-1 / 12/1	6.9%	S	9th/2w	93 -2.1	91⁸-5	92¹⁰	90⁶	82⁶	L1S→T	8%	5∠
10	Buttercream Babe	2% 30-1 / 4/1	10.4%	S	11th/2w	96 +0.6	92⁶-4	93⁷	90⁶	—	J-1.0	26%	⚠-1.42∠
11	Itzel	7% 15-1 / 10/1	7.0%	E	1st/4w	96 +0.9	90¹⁰-6	92¹⁰	90⁶	85⁴	CLMT-1.4J-0.5	11%	⚠-1.82∠
12	Lucy McGee ✓	3% 30-1 / 30/1	2.8%	EP	2nd/4w	91 -3.6	88¹¹-8	92¹⁰	92⁵	—	L2T-5.0▲cls	—	⚠-3.92∠

Pace Projector LONE SPEED front favored 1st¼ 22.4s par 22.4 EP/LP

ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 11 LS★ »»» 99/90 Itzel 12 »»» 100/101 Lucy McGee 6 » 107/97 Shirley Ann 5 98/101 Lovely Emma 3 89/98 Rojo Rita 8 »» 91/106 Cloe 2 96/104 Me Governor 4 C★ 94/117 Saturday Flirt 9 » 98/96 Dala 7 98/90 Satin Blue 10 » 89/109 Buttercream Babe 1 100/103 Big Trouble

On the lead: 11 · race sets up for front

8 Cloe ★ VALUE

4F 122 lbs EP

28.1%

MODEL %

5-2

MODEL FAIR

+17.0

EDGE vs ML

8/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig96 0 vs par

Needs +2~30% run that

Class96.7 +1.8 vs race -0.7 gap

MC15.2% fair 6-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.29

Faced92.6 -1.4 vs today

Pace EP78.9 best 91.4

Pace LP87.0 best 106.0

Energy0.52

Connections

JockBen Curtisκ 0.11was Tyler Gaffalione · -0.8

TrnMichael Makerκ 0.4

J×T18 · 11% win · 39% ITM

Angles

3rd off layoff 14% -22% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	9	3	2	2	33%	96.6
2026	2	1	0	1	50%	96.4
2025	7	2	2	1	29%	96.6
ELP	0	0	0	0	—	—
Turf	6	2	1	2	33%	96.4
Sprint	8	3	2	2	38%	96.6
Wet	0	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-22 CD 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 48 07-15 CD 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 47 07-08 CD Four Furlongs 51.00 b 28 06-13 CD 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 41 05-24 CD 3 Furlongs :39.00 B 26 05-16 CD 4 Furlongs :50.40 B 36

SIRETiz The Law 86 94%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-21 23d	CD	5.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	91	1	5	0.0		59	90	90	96	104	96	0.9	Tyler Gaffalione
2026-05-29 265d·6.3×	CD	5.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	93	3	9	2.0		80	nan	90	94	94	96	2.15	Luis Saez
2025-09-06 57d	KD	6.5f	turf	Good	G2	94	2	12	3.0	F	90	nan	87	90	93	94	25.35	Ricardo Santana, Jr.
2025-07-11 33d	SAR	5.5f	turf	Good	G3	92	4	6	2.0	F	70	93	106	92	91	94	2.2	Irad Ortiz, Jr.
2025-06-08 42d	SAR	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Stk	93	2	6	3.8		91	81	83	93	96	93	2.25	Irad Ortiz, Jr.
2025-04-27 35d	SADH	6.5f	turf	Good	G3	90	3	7	1.2	F	82	85	84	92	80	92	0.9	Luis Saez
2025-03-23 43d	GP	5.0f	turf	Firm	Stk	92	1	8	0.0	F	90	90	101	94	100	90	5.3	Luis Saez
2025-02-08 31d	TAM	8.181818181818182f	dirt	Fast	Stk	93	6	8	13.0		89	85	87	91	95	92	3.9	Samy Camacho
2025-01-08	GP	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	88	1	7	0.0	S	90	84	88	97	89	88	4.1	Luis Saez

6 Shirley Ann LONGSHOT

4F 122 lbs EP

20.4%

MODEL %

4-1

MODEL FAIR

+14.1

EDGE vs ML

15/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig94 -2 vs par

Needs +5~15% run that

Class89.8 -5.1 vs race +4.7 gap

MC13.1% fair 7-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.43

Faced86.7 -7.3 vs today

Pace EP84.8 best 106.8

Pace LP84.9 best 96.9

Energy0.54

Connections

JockAmir Mendozaκ 0.14

TrnClarke Vestyκ 0.1

Angles

2nd off layoff 13% -27% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	5	1	1	2	20%	94.7
2026	1	0	0	1	0%	94.7
2025	0	0	0	0	—	—
ELP	2	0	1	1	0%	92.0
Turf	2	1	0	1	50%	94.7
Sprint	5	1	1	2	20%	94.7
Wet	0	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS ★06-15 IND 4 Furlongs :47.00 B 71

SIREOutwork 82 71%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-10 620d·17.7×	IND	5.0f	turf	Firm	Stk	90	3	12	0.8	F	85	93	97	95	105	88	45.4	Amir Mendoza
2024-10-28 29d	IND	5.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	83	1	10	0.0	F	82	85	83	91	92	89	2.2	Ramon Vazquez
2024-09-29 35d	CD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	88	5	12	4.0	F	74	91	95	88	77	88	10.52	Axel Concepcion
2024-08-25 34d	ELP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	86	3	11	5.8		90	81	76	86	75	90	2.52	Jaime Torres
2024-07-22	ELP	5.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	86	2	7	2.2		107	93	89	92	91	86	14.62	Cristian Torres

9 Dala

5M 122 lbs S

8.2%

MODEL %

12-1

MODEL FAIR

+0.5

EDGE vs ML

12/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig91 -5 vs par

Needs +7~4% run that

Class92.8 -2.1 vs race -1.8 gap

MC3.5% fair 30-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.22

Faced92.0 -2.0 vs today

Pace EP83.9 best 98.0

Pace LP83.2 best 96.3

Energy0.52

Connections

JockJaime Torresκ 0.14was Alex Achard · +0.1

TrnEoin Hartyκ 0.36

J×T13 · 8% win · 38% ITM

Angles

Eoin Harty: off layoff (60d+) 15% -16% Eoin Harty: first-time turf 14% -28% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% First-time turf 10% -26% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	1st	Win%	Fig
Life	8	4	50%	94.3
2026	2	0	0%	90.5
2025	6	4	67%	94.3
ELP	1	0	0%	89.2
Turf	4	2	50%	92.4
Sprint	8	4	50%	94.3
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-25 TP 4 Furlongs :51.20 B 37 07-18 TP 4 Furlongs :50.60 B 47 07-07 TP Four Furlongs 50.40 b 45 03-27 TP 4 Furlongs :51.40 B 23 03-10 TP 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 56

SIREHard Spun 84 86%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-03-14 36d	TP	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	Stk	93	5	7	6.0	F	75	nan	90	90	88	93	11.17	Alex Achard
2026-02-06 48d	TP	6.5f	synthetic	Fast	Stk	92	7	10	13.0	F	90	81	79	87	76	96	3.23	Walter Rodriguez
2025-12-20 34d	TP	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	AOC	90	1	8	0.0	F	73	83	72	90	95	95	0.94	Walter Rodriguez
2025-11-16 91d	CD	5.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	92	1	10	0.0		96	80	96	90	91	94	5.11	Walter Rodriguez
2025-08-17 70d	ELP	5.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	93	6	8	3.2	F	98	76	89	89	86	94	2.13	Walter Rodriguez
2025-06-08 53d	CD	5.5f	turf	Firm	Alw	88	1	11	0.0		91	83	96	92	91	92	3.51	Walter Rodriguez
2025-04-16 40d	KEE	5.5f	turf	Firm	Alw	90	6	12	4.8	F	96	89	70	88	86	91	4.41	John Velazquez
2025-03-07	TP	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	86	1	11	0.0		79	83	99	94	87	86	5.47	Gerardo Corrales

1 Big Trouble

5M 124 lbs S

7.5%

MODEL %

12-1

MODEL FAIR

-10.7

EDGE vs ML

9/2

M/L

Form

Proj Fig95 -1 vs par

Needs +4~14% run that

Class95.0 +0.1 vs race +0.3 gap

MC16.0% fair 5-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.21

Faced92.5 -1.5 vs today

Pace EP86.7 best 99.6

Pace LP84.7 best 103.1

Energy0.50

Connections

JockFrancisco Arrietaκ 0.25was Mitchell Murrill · +1.1

TrnGregory Foleyκ 0.33

Angles

Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	21	3	8	4	14%	98.8
2026	6	1	3	1	17%	98.8
2025	5	1	1	2	20%	98.0
ELP	1	0	1	0	0%	89.0
Turf	17	2	7	4	12%	93.6
Sprint	16	3	5	3	19%	98.8
Wet	2	0	0	0	0%	96.3

WORKS 06-21 CD 3 Furlongs :36.40 B 49 05-24 CD 3 Furlongs :37.60 B 37 05-14 CD 4 Furlongs :47.80 B 70 03-13 FG 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 53

SIREKantharos 83 80%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-10 12d	IND	5.0f	turf	Firm	Stk	90	1	12	0.0	F	90	93	103	93	106	95	1.3	Mitchell Murrill
2026-06-28 25d	CD	5.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	95	5	9	1.5		94	84	66	90	88	95	4.67	Tyler Gaffalione
2026-06-03 42d	CD	5.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	94	3	8	2.2	F	92	89	85	93	94	94	7.82	Declan Cannon
2026-04-22 64d	KEE	5.5f	turf	Firm	Alw	93	2	10	2.0		77	81	86	92	80	93	2.7	Irad Ortiz, Jr.
2026-02-17 38d	FG	5.5f	turf	Firm	Stk	92	2	9	4.2	F	100	96	97	93	105	94	5.8	Declan Cannon
2026-01-10 83d·2.0×	FG	5.5f	dirt	Good	Stk	92	2	6	4.5		55	77	78	99	108	94	1.8	Declan Cannon
2025-10-19 25d	KEE	5.5f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	Alw	92	4	7	3.2		80	nan	86	96	93	94	3.42	Tyler Gaffalione
2025-09-24 161d·3.8×	CD	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Alw	90	1	6	0.0	F	98	91	102	98	93	94	3.45	Tyler Gaffalione
2025-04-16 43d	KEE	5.5f	turf	Firm	Alw	90	3	12	0.5	F	92	96	93	92	92	93	3.62	Jose Ortiz
2025-03-04	FG	5.5f	turf	Firm	Stk	93	2	8	0.8		55	95	96	91	85	93	7.5	Jareth Loveberry

4 Saturday Flirt

4F 122 lbs S

7.0%

MODEL %

12-1

MODEL FAIR

-18.0

EDGE vs ML

3/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig97 +1 vs par

Needs +1~40% run that

Class94.9 -0.0 vs race +1.8 gap

MC18.3% fair 9-2

ConfTIGHT σα 0.29

Faced92.5 -1.5 vs today

Pace EP80.6 best 94.0

Pace LP86.5 best 117.1

Energy0.50

Connections

JockYedsit Hazlewoodκ 0.24was Irad Ortiz, Jr. · -0.3

TrnWesley Wardκ 0.59

J×T4 · 25% win · 75% ITM

Angles

Wesley Ward: off layoff (60d+) 24% -14% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	6	4	1	67%	96.7
2026	2	0	1	0%	95.6
2025	3	3	0	100%	96.7
ELP	0	0	0	—	—
Turf	5	3	1	60%	96.7
Sprint	6	4	1	67%	96.7
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-14 KEE Four Furlongs 50.60 b 37 07-07 KEE Four Furlongs 51.40 b 25 ★04-04 KEE 5 Furlongs 1:02.20 B 73 03-29 KEE 5 Furlongs 1:03.00 B 64

SIREMendelssohn 83 80%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-05-15 33d	LRL	5.5f	turf	Firm	Stk	92	2	8	1.0	S	79	93	80	96	93	95	2.4	Irad Ortiz, Jr.
2026-04-12 218d·2.4×	KEE	5.5f	turf	Firm	G2	95	8	11	6.5	F	69	95	95	93	90	95	7.46	Irad Ortiz, Jr.
2025-09-06 90d	KD	6.5f	turf	Good	Alw	92	1	12	0.0	F	81	84	71	97	103	96	4.72	Lanfranco Dettori
2025-06-08 53d	SAR	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Stk	93	1	6	0.0		81	88	117	95	101	94	4.3	Junior Alvarado
2025-04-16 355d·3.9×	KEE	5.5f	turf	Firm	Alw	90	1	12	0.0	F	94	nan	90	95	92	92	2.74	Irad Ortiz, Jr.
2024-04-26	KEE	5.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	87	1	11	0.0	F	84	83	81	92	83	87	1.06	Irad Ortiz, Jr.

11 Itzel

6M 122 lbs E

6.8%

MODEL %

15-1

MODEL FAIR

-2.3

EDGE vs ML

10/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig90 -6 vs par

Needs +2~30% run that

Class95.8 +0.9 vs race -5.3 gap

MC3.5% fair 25-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.28

Faced91.5 -2.5 vs today

Pace EP85.7 best 99.1

Pace LP76.6 best 90.2

Energy0.53

Connections

JockEdgar Moralesκ 0.15was Junior Alvarado · -0.5

TrnJohn Ennisκ 0.26CLAIMEDwas Michael Maker · -1.4

J×T145 · 11% win · 36% ITM

Angles

Edgar Morales / John Ennis 11% -28% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	21	5	5	2	24%	100.8
2026	4	2	2	0	50%	100.8
2025	6	1	1	0	17%	98.8
ELP	0	0	0	0	—	—
Turf	13	2	4	2	15%	92.5
Sprint	21	5	5	2	24%	100.8
Wet	1	1	0	0	100%	100.8

WORKS 07-21 TTC 4 Furlongs :47.40 B 77 07-15 TTC 3 Furlongs :36.40 B 53 06-21 CD 4 Furlongs :49.60 B 45 06-13 CD 4 Furlongs :50.40 B 36 ★05-24 CDT 3 Furlongs :36.80 B 50 05-15 CDT 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 54

SIREMo Town 83 77%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-28 30d	CD	5.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	95	2	9	0.5		99	84	71	90	89	95	7.63	Junior Alvarado
2026-05-29 33d	CD	5.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	93	2	9	1.0		84	nan	79	92	95	95	6.87	Florent Geroux
2026-04-26 9d	OP	5.5f	dirt	Muddy (Sealed)	AOC	92	1	6	0.0	F	99	85	84	101	104	94	1.2	Ramon Vazquez
2026-04-17 237d·7.2×	OP	5.5f	dirt	Fast	AOC	90	1	8	0.0	F	76	88	90	100	98	93	2.5	Ramon Vazquez
2025-08-23 36d	DMR	5.0f	turf	Firm	Clm	88	5	10	2.2		88	82	49	84	77	94	1.6	Kazushi Kimura
2025-07-18 78d·2.4×	DMR	5.0f	turf	Firm	AOC	90	10	11	2.5	S	97	86	84	90	86	94	7.2	Vincent Cheminaud
2025-05-01 19d	OP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	93	7	10	6.2	F	87	87	82	91	90	94	5.3	Emmanuel Esquivel
2025-04-12 29d	OP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	93	2	8	0.8	F	95	83	88	95	90	93	6.7	Cristian Torres
2025-03-14 42d	OP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Str Alw	88	1	8	0.0	F	88	nan	83	99	98	92	2.9	Ramon Vazquez
2025-01-31	OP	6.0f	dirt	Good	AOC	92	5	6	4.5	F	76	95	90	90	77	91	8.9	Tyler Bacon

3 Rojo Rita LONGSHOT

4F 122 lbs E

5.9%

MODEL %

15-1

MODEL FAIR

+2.7

EDGE vs ML

30/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig88 -8 vs par

Needs +4~19% run that

Class90.6 -4.3 vs race -2.4 gap

MC3.4% fair 30-1

ConfWIDE σα 0.54

Faced91.0 -3.0 vs today

Pace EP82.1 best 88.9

Pace LP83.8 best 97.9

Energy0.53

Connections

JockGerardo Corralesκ 0.19was Amir Mendoza · +0.5

TrnDallas Stewartκ 0.51

Angles

Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	9	2	4	22%	97.3
2026	4	1	1	25%	93.0
2025	4	0	3	0%	94.7
ELP	0	0	0	—	—
Turf	3	0	2	0%	94.7
Sprint	9	2	4	22%	97.3
Wet	1	1	0	100%	93.0

WORKS 06-20 CDT 3 Furlongs :36.60 B 52 05-31 CDT 3 Furlongs :37.00 B 46 05-02 OP 3 Furlongs :37.00 B 41 04-09 OP 5 Furlongs 1:03.00 B 48 04-02 OP 3 Furlongs :36.80 B 55 ◆Big Time Story·85 03-26 OP 3 Furlongs :37.40 B 36

SIREVolatile 85 91%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-07 22d	CD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	93	7	9	5.2		78	94	81	90	89	93	6.64	Amir Mendoza
2026-05-16 29d	CD	5.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	Alw	91	1	8	0.0		84	88	94	93	96	92	1.93	Amir Mendoza
2026-04-17 42d	OP	5.5f	dirt	Fast	AOC	90	2	8	2.5	F	89	89	78	93	95	90	4.2	Amir Mendoza
2026-03-06 268d·6.2×	FG	5.5f	turf	Firm	Alw	89	6	7	15.2	F	84	84	80	76	79	94	1.6	Brian Hernandez, Jr.
2025-06-11 27d	CD	5.5f	turf	Firm	Alw	91	2	12	1.0		82	87	98	95	99	94	5.13	Micah Husbands
2025-05-15 60d	CD	5.5f	turf	Firm	Alw	90	2	12	1.2		90	90	90	92	91	93	3.26	Lanfranco Dettori
2025-03-16 43d	GP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	92	2	6	2.0	F	97	89	84	91	86	92	1.0	Irad Ortiz, Jr.
2025-02-01 78d	GP	7.0f	dirt	Fast	G3	91	11	11	7.8	F	89	86	89	92	88	91	2.1	Edgard Zayas
2024-11-15	GP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	86	1	7	0.0	F	96	79	82	97	94	86	1.4	Edgard Zayas

5 Lovely Emma

4F 122 lbs EP

5.7%

MODEL %

15-1

MODEL FAIR

-5.4

EDGE vs ML

8/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig93 -3 vs par

Needs +3~22% run that

Class93.5 -1.4 vs race -0.6 gap

MC7.8% fair 12-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.32

Faced90.8 -3.2 vs today

Pace EP81.8 best 98.2

Pace LP82.0 best 100.7

Energy0.52

Connections

JockDanny Sheehyκ 0.12was Luis Saez · -0.5

TrnPeter Eurtonκ 0.57

J×T12 · 25% win · 42% ITM

Angles

3rd off layoff 14% -22% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	12	4	2	33%	97.6
2026	4	3	0	75%	97.6
2025	4	0	0	0%	88.8
ELP	3	0	1	0%	91.0
Turf	11	3	2	27%	96.5
Sprint	11	4	2	36%	97.6
Wet	1	1	0	100%	97.6

WORKS 07-25 ELP 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 62 07-18 ELP 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 54 ★07-11 ELP 4 Furlongs :50.40 B 40 07-04 ELP 3 Furlongs :37.00 B 40 06-26 CD 3 Furlongs :38.60 B 30 06-26 Churchill Downs 3f:~ 38.6 nan

SIRETwirling Candy 84 86%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-03 42d	CD	5.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	94	6	8	6.5	F	98	83	76	89	88	93	2.95	Luis Saez
2026-04-22 75d	KEE	5.5f	turf	Firm	Alw	93	1	10	0.0		77	97	96	93	83	92	7.53	Jose Ortiz
2026-02-06 27d	FG	5.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	90	1	8	0.0		63	95	101	96	107	92	2.0	Paco Lopez
2026-01-10 87d	FG	5.5f	dirt	Muddy	Alw	88	1	10	0.0		93	93	71	98	107	92	5.9	Jose Ortiz
2025-10-15 54d	KEE	5.5f	turf	Firm	Alw	89	5	12	2.8	F	84	90	72	89	90	91	4.96	Jose Ortiz
2025-08-22 47d	ELP	8.0f	turf	Firm	Alw	90	4	8	6.8		101	83	75	85	83	91	3.29	Corey Lanerie
2025-07-06 57d	ELP	5.5f	turf	Firm	Stk	90	5	9	3.8	F	85	83	97	85	90	90	12.06	Rafael Bejarano
2025-05-10 142d·2.5×	BAQ	6.0f	turf	Good	Stk	92	9	9	9.0	S	92	nan	61	84	70	90	2.3	Flavien Prat
2024-12-19 60d	FG	5.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	86	1	10	0.0	S	89	nan	88	96	94	91	0.3	Jose Ortiz
2024-10-20	KEE	5.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	88	2	11	0.5	F	84	nan	81	90	90	90	2.06	Lanfranco Dettori

2 Me Governor

4F 122 lbs EP

4.1%

MODEL %

25-1

MODEL FAIR

-2.2

EDGE vs ML

15/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig92 -4 vs par

Needs +7~4% run that

Class94.1 -0.8 vs race -2.5 gap

MC5.9% fair 15-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.26

Faced93.2 -0.8 vs today

Pace EP84.1 best 96.0

Pace LP85.3 best 104.1

Energy0.51

Connections

JockAdam Beschizzaκ 0.08was Irad Ortiz, Jr. · -1.9

TrnJoe Sharpκ 0.4was Carlos David · +0.1

J×T45 · 18% win · 44% ITM

Angles

Adam Beschizza / Joe Sharp 17% -17% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	17	4	3	2	24%	99.0
2026	4	0	1	0	0%	93.0
2025	6	1	1	1	17%	95.4
ELP	0	0	0	0	—	—
Turf	11	3	1	2	27%	99.0
Sprint	16	4	3	2	25%	99.0
Wet	0	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-26 CD 3 Furlongs :37.00 B 41 07-19 CD 4 Furlongs :48.20 B 65 07-12 CD Four Furlongs 47.60 b 62 04-15 KEE 4 Furlongs :48.00 B 63 04-08 KEE 3 Furlongs :37.00 B 43 04-01 PMM 4 Furlongs :48.00 B 66

SIREThe Factor 83 74%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-28 25d	CD	5.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	95	4	9	1.0		93	91	70	90	88	93	9.35	Irad Ortiz, Jr.
2026-06-03 42d	CD	5.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	94	7	8	6.8	F	96	91	83	89	88	93	6.74	Samy Camacho
2026-04-22 39d	KEE	5.5f	turf	Firm	Alw	93	6	10	4.5		79	90	94	89	77	93	10.01	Mario Gutierrez
2026-03-14 104d·2.5×	GP	5.0f	synthetic	Fast	Stk	92	2	10	1.5	F	90	91	104	93	92	92	32.8	Mario Gutierrez
2025-11-30 29d	GP	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	Stk	93	4	7	4.2	F	73	93	92	90	96	92	2.8	Jorge Ruiz
2025-11-01 21d	CD	5.5f	turf	Firm	Alw	93	3	11	1.0		93	75	53	94	93	91	6.35	Emmanuel Esquivel
2025-10-11 71d	BAQ	6.0f	turf	Firm	G3	92	8	10	4.8		70	76	66	94	94	90	4.31	Ricardo Santana, Jr.
2025-08-01 77d	CNL	5.5f	turf	Firm	Alw	90	1	7	0.0	S	88	nan	85	94	88	90	1.5	Antonio Gallardo
2025-05-16 54d	PIM	8.0f	turf	Good	Stk	91	6	8	8.8	S	101	nan	97	93	78	91	2.3	Jose Ortiz
2025-03-23	GP	5.0f	turf	Firm	Stk	92	2	8	1.8	F	85	82	85	95	97	93	2.1	Jorge Ruiz

12 Lucy McGee

4F 122 lbs EP

3.2%

MODEL %

30-1

MODEL FAIR

-0.0

EDGE vs ML

30/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig88 -8 vs par

Needs +7~4% run that

Class91.3 -3.6 vs race -2.9 gap

MC1.9% fair 50-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.29

Faced87.8 -6.2 vs today

Pace EP88.8 best 99.9

Pace LP86.4 best 101.1

Energy0.52

Connections

JockMario Gutierrezκ 0.17

TrnV H Oliverκ 0.0was Victoria Oliver · -5.0

Angles

2nd off layoff 13% -27% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	10	2	2	2	20%	92.5
2026	2	2	0	0	100%	92.2
2025	6	0	2	2	0%	92.5
ELP	4	1	1	0	25%	92.2
Turf	8	2	2	2	25%	92.5
Sprint	10	2	2	2	20%	92.5
Wet	0	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-24 KEE 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 51 04-09 KEE 4 Furlongs :48.20 B 61 03-27 PAY 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 77 03-20 PAY 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 54 03-13 PAY 5 Furlongs 1:04.00 B 44 ◆Marcinkowski·84 ★03-06 PAY 5 Furlongs 1:02.00 B 75 ◆Marcinkowski·84

SIREPractical Joke 86 92%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-10 85d·3.3×	ELP	5.5f	turf	Firm	Alw	91	1	10	0.0		—	—	—	92	91	90	9.18	Mario Gutierrez
2026-04-16 218d·8.4×	KEE	5.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	88	1	10	0.0		90	89	94	90	83	89	2.79	Luis Saez
2025-09-10 18d	KD	6.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	86	6	12	7.0	F	94	nan	78	86	82	90	8.02	Jaime Torres
2025-08-23 40d	ELP	5.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	86	4	10	4.5	F	89	88	101	87	80	90	2.18	Jaime Torres
2025-07-14 19d	ELP	5.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	88	2	11	1.0	F	100	81	91	89	88	90	2.26	Jaime Torres
2025-06-25 18d	CD	5.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	87	3	11	0.5		98	nan	86	89	91	89	2.54	Sophie Doyle
2025-06-07 23d	CD	5.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	88	2	10	0.5	F	86	82	83	87	82	88	5.44	Sophie Doyle
2025-05-15 297d·11.4×	CD	5.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	88	3	12	0.8	F	89	86	82	92	92	84	41.96	Sophie Doyle
2024-07-22 26d	ELP	5.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	86	6	7	14.2		86	67	69	82	75	89	8.19	Jaime Torres
2024-06-26	CD	4.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	88	6	11	6.0	F	81	nan	86	86	76	88	14.44	Jaime Torres

10 Buttercream Babe

5M 122 lbs S

2.5%

MODEL %

30-1

MODEL FAIR

-17.5

EDGE vs ML

4/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig92 -4 vs par

Needs +7~4% run that

Class95.5 +0.6 vs race -3.6 gap

MC5.8% fair 15-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.23

Faced92.2 -1.8 vs today

Pace EP82.4 best 88.7

Pace LP85.0 best 109.5

Energy0.50

Connections

JockCristian Torresκ 0.14was John Velazquez · -1.0

TrnGeorge Arnold IIκ 0.55

J×T19 · 26% win · 42% ITM

Angles

Cristian Torres / George Arnold II 20% +89% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	19	4	2	5	21%	93.4
2026	4	2	0	1	50%	93.4
2025	3	0	0	1	0%	92.9
ELP	1	0	0	1	0%	92.9
Turf	18	4	2	5	22%	93.4
Sprint	9	3	0	2	33%	93.4
Wet	1	0	0	0	0%	92.2

WORKS 07-25 KEE 3 Furlongs :35.80 B 53 07-17 KEE 4 Furlongs :50.60 B 31 ★04-26 KEE 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 42 04-21 KEE 4 Furlongs :53.80 B 18 03-20 PMM 4 Furlongs :46.95 B 62 03-11 PMM 3 Furlongs :38.95 B 32

SIRETwirling Candy 84 86%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-28 22d	CD	5.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	95	1	9	0.0		nan	nan	69	90	90	95	4.88	John Velazquez
2026-06-06 34d	SAR	8.0f	turf	Firm	G1	95	8	8	10.0		85	72	75	89	94	95	23.9	Luis Saez
2026-05-03 29d	BAQ	6.0f	turf	Firm	Stk	93	3	8	1.2	S	85	90	85	89	81	95	3.13	John Velazquez
2026-04-04 209d·4.4×	KEE	5.5f	turf	Firm	Alw	90	1	6	0.0		78	100	103	93	96	95	4.59	John Velazquez
2025-09-07 63d	KD	7.0f	turf	Firm	AOC	88	4	8	7.0	F	89	98	110	84	78	96	0.96	Irad Ortiz, Jr.
2025-07-06 72d	ELP	8.0f	turf	Firm	AOC	91	3	8	1.0		100	94	69	93	100	96	1.5	Florent Geroux
2025-04-25 182d·3.8×	KEE	8.0f	turf	Yielding	Alw	92	7	12	5.5		71	98	94	92	80	97	6.2	Luis Saez
2024-10-25 48d	KEE	8.0f	turf	Firm	G2	95	3	12	1.2		79	75	85	92	88	96	8.92	Irad Ortiz, Jr.
2024-09-07 36d	KD	6.5f	turf	Firm	G2	94	6	12	3.0	F	83	92	113	89	85	95	3.23	Irad Ortiz, Jr.
2024-08-02	SAR	8.0f	turf	Firm	G2	93	3	8	0.5	S	85	94	93	90	86	94	5.3	Irad Ortiz, Jr.

7 Satin Blue

5M 122 lbs S

0.7%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-5.5

EDGE vs ML

15/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig91 -5 vs par

Needs +7~4% run that

Class94.0 -0.9 vs race -2.7 gap

MC5.7% fair 15-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.31

Faced92.3 -1.7 vs today

Pace EP88.2 best 97.6

Pace LP78.9 best 90.1

Energy0.50

Connections

JockAxel Concepcionκ 0.14was Jose Ortiz · -1.1

TrnJoe Sharpκ 0.4

J×T68 · 13% win · 53% ITM

Angles

Axel Concepcion / Joe Sharp 14% -29% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	15	3	3	1	20%	93.7
2026	3	1	0	0	33%	93.3
2025	3	1	0	0	33%	91.9
ELP	0	0	0	0	—	—
Turf	11	3	1	0	27%	93.3
Sprint	14	3	3	1	21%	93.7
Wet	2	0	0	1	0%	93.7

WORKS 07-24 CD 4 Furlongs :49.60 B 43 07-17 CD 4 Furlongs :49.80 B 40 ★04-21 CD 4 Furlongs :46.20 B 84 ★04-12 CD 5 Furlongs :59.20 B 89 03-13 CDT 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 53

SIREThe Factor 83 74%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-28 30d	CD	5.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	95	9	9	10.5		94	nan	72	83	75	95	8.74	Jose Ortiz
2026-05-29 30d	CD	5.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	93	1	9	0.0		95	nan	81	93	97	94	6.08	Jose Ortiz
2026-04-29 304d·8.4×	CD	5.0f	turf	Firm	AOC	91	4	9	3.8		98	87	64	92	88	94	7.52	Jose Ortiz
2025-06-29 45d	CD	5.0f	turf	Firm	AOC	93	4	8	3.2		89	90	90	90	86	93	2.1	Jose Ortiz
2025-05-15 29d	CD	5.5f	turf	Firm	Alw	90	1	12	0.0		90	nan	84	92	93	92	4.5	Jose Ortiz
2025-04-16 157d·4.4×	KEE	5.5f	turf	Firm	Alw	90	7	12	5.0	F	107	87	64	88	85	92	7.57	Lanfranco Dettori
2024-11-10 21d	CD	5.5f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	Alw	90	3	11	1.8		75	92	74	94	90	91	4.4	Tyler Gaffalione
2024-10-20 49d	KEE	8.0f	turf	Firm	Alw	90	6	12	3.0	F	85	nan	97	87	88	90	5.63	Tyler Gaffalione
2024-09-01 36d	KD	7.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	86	1	12	0.0	F	98	75	48	87	85	90	1.85	Tyler Gaffalione
2024-07-27	SAR	5.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	89	2	10	0.2		80	83	70	91	92	89	10.0	Tyler Gaffalione