ELP 2026-08-01 · US Racing

TRACKS · 2026-08-01

CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO

▸ How to read a horse block

MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σ_α. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.

R1 D R2 D R3 T R4 D R5 T R6 D R7 T R8 D R9 T R10 T

Purse $100,000. One And One Sixteenth Miles. (Turf) (Includes $50,000 – KTDF - Kentucky TB Devt Fund). For Maidens, Two Years Old. Weight, 119 Lbs. (If deemed inadvisable by management to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the main track at One mile out of the chute.).

TODAY'S CONTENDERS		WIN% · FAIR / ML	QIK%	STY	P1C	CLASS	PROJ	COND	LAST	SUS	J×T
1	Gamerboy	1% 99-1 / 30/1	1.5%	P	1st/1w	81 -1.1	80¹⁴-9	76⁴	76⁷	82⁵		—
2	Silver Jewel	9% 10-1 / 15/1	5.9%	C	16th/1w	86 +3.4	83¹²-6	77³	77⁶	82⁵	L2	6%	LS2∠
3	Mahogany Dream	65% 1-2 / 7/2	34.2%		3rd/1w	92 +9.3	84⁷-5	—	91¹	81⁷	D→Tspr→rte▼cls	—	✓+3.4★PRIME4∠
4	Very Classy	6% 15-1 / 30/1	3.5%		6th/1w	83 +1.1	83¹²-6	—	84²	97¹	D→Tspr→rte▼cls▲slo-close	0%	LS3∠
5	Neville	0% 99-1 / 15/1	2.3%		11th/1w	—	84⁷-5	—	—	—		17%	3∠
6	Rivelli	6% 15-1 / 4/1	9.9%		5th/1w	84 +2.2	84⁷-5	80¹	80⁴	81⁷	J+1.1	28%	3∠
7	Play It Again	4% 20-1 / 8/1	5.8%	C	15th/1w	87 +4.7	84⁷-5	79²	79⁵	96²		18%	2∠
8	Authentic Gold	0% 99-1 / 20/1	1.9%		7th/1w	80 -2.7	86³-3	—	73⁸	78⁹	D→Tspr→rte▼cls	20%	5∠
9	Jas	0% 99-1 / 5/1	6.2%		12th/1w	—	84⁷-5	—	—	—		16%	3∠
10	Sky Warrior	1% 99-1 / 10/1	3.7%	P	13th/1w	79 -3.4	76¹⁵-13	72⁵	72⁹	76¹⁰		15%	2∠
11	Conroy	6% 15-1 / 15/1	4.8%		4th/2w	80 -2.0	86³-3	—	81³	88³	D→Tspr→rte▼cls	8%	LS5∠
12	Big Mike Fink	0% 99-1 / 9/2	6.7%		9th/2w	—	87²-2	—	—	—		18%	3∠
13	Kurita's Folly	0% 99-1 / 8/1	4.1%		10th/2w	—	86³-3	—	—	—		—	2∠
14	Baytown Da Vinci	0% 99-1 / 30/1	1.2%	S	2nd/3w	81 -1.5	75¹⁶-14	68⁶	68¹⁰	86⁴	J+2.0	—	✓+1.6
15	Bazooka	0% 99-1 / 12/1	2.9%	S	14th/3w	83 +0.6	85⁶-4	—	—	—		—	6∠
16	Caribbean Life	0% 99-1 / 6/1	5.3%		8th/3w	—	88¹-1	—	—	—		46%	2∠

Pace Projector HONEST PACE 1st¼ 23.7s par 23.7 EP/LP

ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 1 81/99 Gamerboy 14 »» 92/100 Baytown Da Vinci 3 73/90 Mahogany Dream 11 » 93/84 Conroy 6 71/91 Rivelli 4 LP 84/109 Very Classy 8 76/79 Authentic Gold 16 »» Caribbean Life 12 » Big Mike Fink 13 » Kurita's Folly 5 Neville 9 Jas 10 92/84 Sky Warrior 15 »» Bazooka 7 91/101 Play It Again 2 89/106 Silver Jewel

3 Mahogany Dream ★ PRIME THIN DATA

2C 119 lbs

65.1%

MODEL %

1-2

MODEL FAIR

+42.9

EDGE vs ML

7/2

M/L

Form

Proj Fig84 -5 vs par

Needs fits levelbase 91 vs par 89

Class91.6 +9.3 vs race -7.5 gap

MC8.6% fair 10-1

ConfWIDE σα 0.51

Faced87.6 +4.7 vs today

Pace EP78.3 best 73.0

Pace LP82.4 best 89.6

Energy0.49

≠ Cross-surface α

Connections

JockMartin Garciaκ 0.11

TrnNik Goodwinκ 0.07

Angles

2nd career start 13% -28% Nik Goodwin: first-time turf 12% +6% First-time turf 10% -26% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26%

Record

	Sts	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	1	1	0%	91.0
2026	1	1	0%	91.0
2025	0	0	—	—
ELP	1	1	0%	91.0
Turf	0	0	—	—
Route	0	0	—	—
Wet	1	1	0%	91.0

WORKS 07-25 ELP 4 Furlongs :48.20 B 68 07-04 CBY 4 Furlongs :47.99 B 06-28 CBY 4 Furlongs :49.25 B G 06-21 CBY 4 Furlongs :48.12 B 06-14 CBY 4 Furlongs :48.88 B 06-07 CBY 3 Furlongs :36.40 B

SIREHard Spun 84 86%ile turf 15%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-11	ELP	5.5f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	MSW	88	2	8	2.0		73	92	90	91	88	88	6.93	Martin Garcia

2 Silver Jewel LONGSHOT THIN DATA

2C 119 lbs C

9.1%

MODEL %

10-1

MODEL FAIR

+2.8

EDGE vs ML

15/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig83 -6 vs par

Needs +10~3% run that

Class85.7 +3.4 vs race -2.4 gap

MC5.5% fair 15-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.3

Faced84.9 +2.0 vs today

Pace EP77.4 best 88.6

Pace LP88.8 best 105.6

Energy0.50

Connections

JockMario Gutierrezκ 0.17was Dylan Machado · +0.0

TrnPavel Matejkaκ 0.16

J×T17 · 6% win · 24% ITM

Angles

2nd off layoff 13% -27% Pavel Matejka: 2nd off layoff 13% -46%

Record

	Sts	Win%	Fig
Life	2	0%	80.6
2026	2	0%	80.6
2025	0	—	—
ELP	1	0%	77.1
Turf	2	0%	80.6
Route	1	0%	77.1
Wet	0	—	—

WORKS 07-25 TTC 4 Furlongs :48.40 B 78 ◆Accredit·98 06-24 TTC 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 60 06-17 TTC 3 Furlongs :39.60 B 21 ★06-10 TTC 3 Furlongs :36.80 B 45 06-04 TTC 4 Furlongs :50.20 B 44 ◆Enchanting Cat 05-29 TTC 4 Furlongs :49.60 B 62 ◆Rocket Rania·90

SIREWar Of Will 84 84%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-05 73d	ELP	8.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	83	7	11	11.0		58	86	106	77	72	87	9.52	Dylan Machado
2026-04-23	KEE	5.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	87	5	9	7.0	F	89	nan	98	81	58	87	34.51	Dylan Machado

11 Conroy LONGSHOT THIN DATA

2C 119 lbs

6.4%

MODEL %

15-1

MODEL FAIR

+0.2

EDGE vs ML

15/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig86 -3 vs par

Needs +8~6% run that

Class80.3 -2.0 vs race +6.1 gap

MC10.0% fair 9-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.4

Faced88.3 +5.4 vs today

Pace EP83.2 best 92.8

Pace LP80.9 best 83.6

Energy0.52

≠ Cross-surface α

Connections

JockEdgar Moralesκ 0.15was Brian Hernandez, Jr. · +0.3

TrnGeorge Arnold IIκ 0.55

J×T63 · 8% win · 32% ITM

Angles

2nd career start 13% -28% George Arnold II: first-time turf 10% +11% First-time turf 10% -26% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26% Edgar Morales / George Arnold II 8% -18%

Record

	Sts	Win%	Fig
Life	1	0%	81.2
2026	1	0%	81.2
2025	0	—	—
ELP	0	—	—
Turf	0	—	—
Route	0	—	—
Wet	1	0%	81.2

WORKS ★07-26 KEE 4 Furlongs :47.40 B 77 ◆How About Now·92 07-19 KEE 4 Furlongs :50.40 B 35 07-12 KEE Four Furlongs 50.00 b 45 04-30 KEE 4 Furlongs :50.40 B 35 04-22 KEE 3 Furlongs :38.00 B 36 ◆Good To Be King 04-15 KEE 3 Furlongs :38.40 B 35 ◆Good To Be King

SIRELiam'S Map 85 91%ile turf 17%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-27	CD	6.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	MSW	88	6	7	17.2	F	93	94	84	81	71	88	22.22	Brian Hernandez, Jr.

6 Rivelli THIN DATA

2C 119 lbs

6.3%

MODEL %

15-1

MODEL FAIR

-13.7

EDGE vs ML

4/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig84 -5 vs par

Needs +9~5% run that

Class84.5 +2.2 vs race 0.0 gap

MC6.6% fair 15-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.31

Faced83.4 +0.5 vs today

Pace EP77.7 best 70.6

Pace LP82.7 best 90.7

Energy0.50

Connections

JockGerardo Corralesκ 0.19was Jareth Loveberry · +1.1

TrnLarry Rivelliκ 0.26

J×T67 · 28% win · 51% ITM

Angles

Gerardo Corrales / Larry Rivelli 32% +32% 2nd career start 13% -28% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	1	1	0%	79.9
2026	1	1	0%	79.9
2025	0	0	—	—
ELP	0	0	—	—
Turf	1	1	0%	79.9
Route	1	1	0%	79.9
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-24 HAW 4 Furlongs :48.60 B 58 06-27 HAW 5 Furlongs 1:01.00 B 65 06-20 HAW 5 Furlongs 1:01.40 B 63 06-13 HAW 5 Furlongs :59.20 B 81 ◆Rising Creek ★06-04 HAW 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 51 ◆Mischievous Richie·86 05-27 HAW 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 44

SIRETiz The Law 86 94%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-10	CNL	8.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	83	3	12	5.8		71	76	91	80	75	84	3.5	Jareth Loveberry

4 Very Classy LONGSHOT THIN DATA

2C 119 lbs

5.9%

MODEL %

15-1

MODEL FAIR

+2.7

EDGE vs ML

30/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig83 -6 vs par

Needs +6~11% run that

Class83.4 +1.1 vs race -0.2 gap

MC6.1% fair 15-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.41

Faced87.6 +4.7 vs today

Pace EP81.1 best 84.4

Pace LP87.2 best 108.7

Energy0.50

≠ Cross-surface α

Connections

JockGabriel Saezκ 0.07

TrnJose Aranhaκ 0.21

J×T9 · 0% win · 33% ITM

Angles

2nd career start 13% -28% First-time turf 10% -26% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26%

Record

	Sts	Win%	Fig
Life	1	0%	83.5
2026	1	0%	83.5
2025	0	—	—
ELP	1	0%	83.5
Turf	0	—	—
Route	0	—	—
Wet	0	—	—

WORKS 07-21 KEE 4 Furlongs :50.20 B 37 06-23 Keeneland Race Course 4f:~ 48.4 nan 05-23 Keeneland Race Course 5f:~ 1:04.8 nan 03-27 KEE 4 Furlongs :52.40 B 16 03-27 Keeneland Race Course 4f:~ 52.4 nan 03-21 KEE 3 Furlongs :38.20 B G 36

SIREHappy Saver 106 100%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-04	ELP	5.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	88	6	8	12.2	S	84	82	109	84	72	88	52.33	Gabriel Saez

7 Play It Again THIN DATA

2C 119 lbs C

4.3%

MODEL %

20-1

MODEL FAIR

-6.8

EDGE vs ML

8/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig84 -5 vs par

Needs +8~6% run that

Class87.0 +4.7 vs race -3.0 gap

MC5.5% fair 15-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.28

Faced85.4 +2.5 vs today

Pace EP82.1 best 91.5

Pace LP82.5 best 100.6

Energy0.49

Connections

JockAxel Concepcionκ 0.14

TrnMark Casseκ 0.47

J×T22 · 18% win · 50% ITM

Angles

Axel Concepcion / Mark Casse 18% +67% 3rd off layoff 14% -22%

Record

	Sts	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	2	1	0%	83.2
2026	2	1	0%	83.2
2025	0	0	—	—
ELP	1	1	0%	78.8
Turf	2	1	0%	83.2
Route	1	1	0%	78.8
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-22 ELP 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 54 06-17 CD 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 51 06-17 Churchill Downs 4f:~ 49 nan 06-07 CD 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 57 05-07 CD 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 54 05-07 Churchill Downs 4f:~ 49 nan

SIRESpeightstown 86 94%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-05 45d	ELP	8.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	83	3	11	6.0		92	95	101	79	76	86	4.0	Axel Concepcion
2026-05-21	CD	5.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	88	5	10	8.5	F	88	82	66	83	74	85	8.64	Jose Ortiz

10 Sky Warrior THIN DATA

2C 119 lbs P

1.0%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-8.1

EDGE vs ML

10/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig76 -13 vs par

Needs +15~<1% run that

Class78.9 -3.4 vs race -3.2 gap

MC1.1% fair 99-1

ConfWIDE σα 0.56

Faced85.4 +2.5 vs today

Pace EP80.4 best 91.8

Pace LP79.7 best 83.9

Energy0.51

Connections

JockCristian Torresκ 0.14

TrnMark Casseκ 0.47

J×T118 · 15% win · 47% ITM

Angles

3rd off layoff 14% -22% Cristian Torres / Mark Casse 11% -52%

Record

	Sts	Win%	Fig
Life	2	0%	77.0
2026	2	0%	77.0
2025	0	—	—
ELP	1	0%	71.9
Turf	1	0%	71.9
Route	1	0%	71.9
Wet	0	—	—

WORKS 07-25 CD 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 49 06-19 CD 4 Furlongs :47.80 B 66 ◆Pride Rock 05-22 CD 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 53 ★05-14 CD 3 Furlongs :36.60 B G 53 ◆Donie Maronie 05-07 CD 3 Furlongs :37.00 B G 48 ◆Casino 04-24 CD 4 Furlongs :48.40 B 53

SIRETapit 87 96%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-05 31d	ELP	8.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	83	6	11	10.8		69	83	84	72	72	77	5.8	Cristian Torres
2026-06-04	CD	5.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	88	7	11	10.0	F	92	77	81	77	76	75	8.57	Axel Concepcion

1 Gamerboy THIN DATA

2C 119 lbs P

0.8%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-2.4

EDGE vs ML

30/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig80 -9 vs par

Needs +12~2% run that

Class81.2 -1.1 vs race -0.8 gap

MC2.6% fair 30-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.34

Faced85.4 +2.5 vs today

Pace EP79.6 best 80.9

Pace LP85.1 best 99.0

Energy0.51

Connections

JockAlex Achardκ 0.14

TrnGlenna Laureanoκ 0.19

Record

	Sts	Win%	Fig
Life	2	0%	79.1
2026	2	0%	79.1
2025	0	—	—
ELP	1	0%	75.9
Turf	1	0%	75.9
Route	1	0%	75.9
Wet	0	—	—

WORKS 07-28 KEE 4 Furlongs :48.00 B 60 04-21 KEE 3 Furlongs :37.40 B G 40 04-11 KEE 3 Furlongs :38.00 B 39 ★04-04 KEE 3 Furlongs :38.40 B 32

SIRECatalina Cruiser 82 71%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-05 41d	ELP	8.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	83	5	11	9.8		77	93	86	76	73	78	22.54	Alex Achard
2026-05-25	CD	5.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	88	7	8	22.0		81	102	99	79	63	88	63.35	Gabriel Saez

8 Authentic Gold THIN DATA

2C 119 lbs

0.3%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-4.5

EDGE vs ML

20/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig86 -3 vs par

Needs +16~<1% run that

Class79.6 -2.7 vs race +6.0 gap

MC11.3% fair 8-1

ConfWIDE σα 0.54

Faced87.6 +4.7 vs today

Pace EP79.0 best 76.2

Pace LP79.7 best 78.9

Energy0.52

≠ Cross-surface α

Connections

JockAlberto Burgosκ 0.12was Alex Achard · -0.1

TrnPaulo Loboκ 0.64

J×T55 · 20% win · 49% ITM

Angles

Alberto Burgos / Paulo Lobo 22% +58% 2nd career start 13% -28% Paulo Lobo: first-time turf 10% -14% First-time turf 10% -26% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26%

Record

	Sts	Win%	Fig
Life	1	0%	73.1
2026	1	0%	73.1
2025	0	—	—
ELP	1	0%	73.1
Turf	0	—	—
Route	0	—	—
Wet	0	—	—

WORKS 07-25 TTC 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 55 07-04 TTC 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 49 06-29 TTC 3 Furlongs :38.00 B 32 ★06-20 TTC 5 Furlongs 1:02.40 B 70 ◆No Bien Ni Mal·102 ★06-13 TTC 5 Furlongs 1:01.40 B 78 ◆Obstacle 06-06 TTC 3 Furlongs :37.60 B 39

SIREAuthentic 85 89%ile turf 14%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-09	ELP	5.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	88	9	9	19.2	F	76	80	79	73	62	88	20.0	Alex Achard

16 Caribbean Life

2C 119 lbs

0.1%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-14.2

EDGE vs ML

6/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig88 -1 vs par

MC9.2% fair 10-1

ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285

⚠ No history — ML-anchored

Connections

JockJaime Torresκ 0.14

TrnWilliam Waldenκ 0.65

J×T13 · 46% win · 77% ITM

Angles

William Walden: debut 23% +19% Debut 11% -25%

Record

	Win%	Fig
Life	—	—
2026	—	—
2025	—	—
ELP	—	—
Turf	—	—
Route	—	—
Wet	—	—

WORKS 07-22 CD 4 Furlongs :48.60 B 56 ★07-15 CD 5 Furlongs :59.60 B G 85 07-03 CD 4 Furlongs :50.00 B G 41 07-03 Churchill Downs 4f:~ 50 nan 06-24 CD 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 48 06-04 CD 4 Furlongs :48.20 B 60

SIRELife Is Good 99 99%ile 1st-out 54% (11)

No prior races in database

12 Big Mike Fink

2C 119 lbs

0.1%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-18.1

EDGE vs ML

9/2

M/L

Form

Proj Fig87 -2 vs par

MC8.7% fair 10-1

ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285

⚠ No history — ML-anchored

Connections

JockBen Curtisκ 0.11

TrnBrendan Walshκ 0.61

J×T122 · 18% win · 47% ITM

Angles

Ben Curtis / Brendan Walsh 16% -21% Brendan Walsh: debut 14% +3% Debut 11% -25%

Record

	Win%	Fig
Life	—	—
2026	—	—
2025	—	—
ELP	—	—
Turf	—	—
Route	—	—
Wet	—	—

WORKS 07-22 TP 4 Furlongs :48.80 B G 60 07-14 TP Four Furlongs 49.80 b 54 07-08 TP Four Furlongs 50.00 bg 50

SIREOmaha Beach 86 94%ile 1st-out 18% (222) turf 16%

No prior races in database

13 Kurita's Folly

2C 119 lbs

0.1%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-11.0

EDGE vs ML

8/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig86 -3 vs par

MC6.9% fair 15-1

ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285

⚠ No history — ML-anchored

Connections

JockYedsit Hazlewoodκ 0.24

TrnKelsey Dannerκ 0.37

Angles

Debut 11% -25% Kelsey Danner: debut 11% +58%

Record

	Win%	Fig
Life	—	—
2026	—	—
2025	—	—
ELP	—	—
Turf	—	—
Route	—	—
Wet	—	—

WORKS 07-21 TP 4 Furlongs :50.00 B G 54 07-09 TP Four Furlongs 50.20 b 42

SIREBlame 85 88%ile 1st-out 16% (285) turf 14%

No prior races in database

15 Bazooka

2C 119 lbs S

0.1%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-7.6

EDGE vs ML

12/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig85 -4 vs par

Class82.9 +0.6 vs race +2.0 gap

MC6.7% fair 15-1

ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285

Connections

JockCristian Torresκ 0.14

TrnJorge Delgadoκ 0.35

Angles

Jorge Delgado: off layoff (60d+) 19% -21% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% Jorge Delgado: first-time turf 12% -22% First-time turf 10% -26% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26%

Record

	Win%	Fig
Life	—	—
2026	—	—
2025	—	—
ELP	—	—
Turf	—	—
Route	—	—
Wet	—	—

WORKS 07-25 MTH 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 45 07-12 MTH 4 Furlongs :48.60 B 69 06-28 MTH 3 Furlongs :38.80 B G 27 06-21 MTH 4 Furlongs :50.60 B 43 06-14 MTH 3 Furlongs :38.40 B 36 06-07 MTH 4 Furlongs :51.00 B 45

SIREMystic Guide 100 100%ile

No prior races in database

5 Neville

2C 119 lbs

0.1%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-6.2

EDGE vs ML

15/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig84 -5 vs par

MC6.1% fair 15-1

ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285

⚠ No history — ML-anchored

Connections

JockDanny Sheehyκ 0.12

TrnMichelle Lovellκ 0.32

J×T23 · 17% win · 26% ITM

Angles

Danny Sheehy / Michelle Lovell 12% -40% Debut 11% -25% Michelle Lovell: debut 10% +135%

Record

	Win%	Fig
Life	—	—
2026	—	—
2025	—	—
ELP	—	—
Turf	—	—
Route	—	—
Wet	—	—

WORKS 07-22 CDT 4 Furlongs :50.40 B 37 07-14 CDT 5 Furlongs 1:02.00 B G 58 07-03 CDT 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 43 06-20 CDT 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 50 06-13 CDT 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 46 06-05 CDT 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 61

SIREEarly Voting 102 100%ile 1st-out 43% (7)

No prior races in database

9 Jas

2C 119 lbs

0.1%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-16.6

EDGE vs ML

5/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig84 -5 vs par

MC5.1% fair 20-1

ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285

⚠ No history — ML-anchored

Connections

JockErik Asmussenκ 0.07

TrnSteven Asmussenκ 0.33

J×T1422 · 16% win · 46% ITM

Angles

Erik Asmussen / Steven Asmussen 17% -21% Steven Asmussen: debut 14% -36% Debut 11% -25%

Record

	Win%	Fig
Life	—	—
2026	—	—
2025	—	—
ELP	—	—
Turf	—	—
Route	—	—
Wet	—	—

WORKS ★07-21 CD 5 Furlongs 1:00.40 B 73 07-14 CD Four Furlongs 48.60 bg 54 06-26 Turfway Park 5f:~ 1:01.8 nan

SIREJustify 88 96%ile 1st-out 23% (184) turf 18%

No prior races in database

14 Baytown Da Vinci THIN DATA

2C 119 lbs S

0.1%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-3.1

EDGE vs ML

30/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig75 -14 vs par

Needs +18~<1% run that

Class80.8 -1.5 vs race -6.1 gap

MC0.2% fair 99-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.25

Faced86.0 +3.1 vs today

Pace EP83.3 best 92.1

Pace LP85.2 best 99.5

Energy0.51

Connections

JockEdgar Moralesκ 0.15was Mia Nicholls · +2.0

TrnPaul McEnteeκ -0.05

Record

	Sts	Win%	Fig
Life	3	0%	74.1
2026	3	0%	74.1
2025	0	—	—
ELP	1	0%	68.3
Turf	2	0%	71.0
Route	1	0%	68.3
Wet	0	—	—

WORKS 04-30 KEE 3 Furlongs :37.20 B 41 04-11 KEE 3 Furlongs :38.40 B 36

SIREGolden Pal 92 98%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-05 17d	ELP	8.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	83	9	11	19.0	84	84	86	68	64	81	94.62	Mia Nicholls
2026-06-18 21d	CD	5.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	88	10	10	16.2	—	—	—	71	62	81	40.9	Danny Sheehy
2026-05-28	CD	5.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	87	6	7	14.5	92	94	100	74	58	87	13.71	Luan Machado