ELP 2026-08-01 · US Racing

TRACKS · 2026-08-01

CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO

▸ How to read a horse block

MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σ_α. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.

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Purse $53,000. One Mile. (Includes $19,000 – KTDF - Kentucky TB Devt Fund). For Auction Maidens, Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward. Three Year Olds, 118 Lbs.; Older, 124 Lbs. Claiming Price $50,000 For Horses That Sold Or RNA For $65,000 Or Less In Their Most Recent Auction Or Claiming Price $50,000.

TODAY'S CONTENDERS		WIN% · FAIR / ML	QIK%	STY	P1C	CLASS	PROJ	COND	LAST	SUS	J×T
1	Maxies Bubble Gum	0% 99-1 / 12/1	3.8%		5th/1w	—	85⁷-9	—	—	—		27%	2∠
2	Lunar Loop	1% 99-1 / 5/1	8.3%	C	8th/1w	83 +0.2	86⁶-8	86²	86⁵	99¹	CLMT-2.7spr→rte	—	⚠-3.9
3	Red Rainbow	1% 99-1 / 6/1	7.3%	P	1st/1w	83 +0.1	84⁸-10	86²	86⁵	77⁶	▲cls	16%	2∠
4	Halfway to Omaha	16% 5-1 / 8/1	11.9%	EP	2nd/2w	87 +4.2	94²+0	—	94³	61⁷	L2spr→rte▼cls	0%	3∠
5	Spill the Sugar	0% 99-1 / 8/1	5.5%	S	6th/1w	83 -0.3	90⁵-4	—	86⁵	95²	T+0.5spr→rte	—
6	Quality View	35% 9-5 / 3/1	26.0%	S	4th/2w	86 +3.4	91⁴-3	89¹	96²	84⁵	J-0.9spr→rte▼cls	14%	⚠-1.32∠
7	Passionfruit	43% 6-5 / 5/2	31.0%	C	7th/3w	87 +4.0	98¹+4	—	98¹	88⁴	spr→rte▼cls	25%	✓+3.4★PRIME1∠
8	Dizzy Miss Lizzy	2% 50-1 / 8/1	6.2%	P	3rd/3w	85 +1.9	92³-2	—	91⁴	89³	spr→rte▲cls	15%	1∠

Pace Projector HONEST PACE 1st¼ 24.1s par 24.1 EP/LP

ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 3 VULN 93/99 Red Rainbow 4 LP » 94/115 Halfway to Omaha 8 »» 95/87 Dizzy Miss Lizzy 6 LP » 105/117 Quality View 1 Maxies Bubble Gum 5 102/88 Spill the Sugar 7 »» 91/94 Passionfruit 2 91/107 Lunar Loop

7 Passionfruit ★ PRIME THIN DATA

3F 118 lbs L C

43.3%

MODEL %

6-5

MODEL FAIR

+14.7

EDGE vs ML

5/2

M/L

Form

Proj Fig98 +4 vs par

Needs fits levelbase 96 vs par 94

Class87.1 +4.0 vs race +10.9 gap

MC38.6% fair 8-5

ConfNORMAL σα 0.38

Faced86.9 +1.9 vs today

Pace EP82.7 best 91.0

Pace LP81.0 best 93.5

Energy0.52

Connections

JockDanny Sheehyκ 0.12was Ben Curtis · +0.2

TrnPeter Eurtonκ 0.57

J×T12 · 25% win · 42% ITM

Angles

Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23%

Record

	Sts	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	2	1	0%	97.9
2026	2	1	0%	97.9
2025	0	0	—	—
ELP	0	0	—	—
Dirt	2	1	0%	97.9
Route	0	0	—	—
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-21 ELP 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 59 07-14 ELP 4 Furlongs :48.00 B 68 ★07-07 ELP 4 Furlongs :48.40 B 61 06-13 CD 4 Furlongs :48.40 B 60 05-25 CD 4 Furlongs :47.80 B 66 05-03 TTC 4 Furlongs :50.60 B 40

SIRECandy Ride (Arg) 85 91%ile turf 15%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-20 42d	CD	7.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	87	6	11	7.8	F	82	78	94	98	94	88	2.0	Ben Curtis
2026-05-09	CD	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	87	2	12	3.2	F	91	80	72	95	91	85	11.23	Ben Curtis

6 Quality View

3F 118 lbs L S

35.2%

MODEL %

9-5

MODEL FAIR

+10.2

EDGE vs ML

3/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig91 -3 vs par

Needs +3~25% run that

Class86.5 +3.4 vs race +4.7 gap

MC10.9% fair 8-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.32

Faced84.1 -0.9 vs today

Pace EP84.0 best 104.5

Pace LP88.3 best 116.7

Energy0.53

Connections

JockAdam Beschizzaκ 0.08was Luis Saez · -0.9

TrnChristopher Davisκ 0.34

J×T7 · 14% win · 29% ITM

Angles

Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23% Adam Beschizza / Christopher Davis 13% +53%

Record

	Sts	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	6	4	1	0%	96.3
2026	6	4	1	0%	96.3
2025	0	0	0	—	—
ELP	0	0	0	—	—
Dirt	3	2	1	0%	96.3
Route	5	4	0	0%	89.2
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-24 TP 4 Furlongs :51.40 B 31 07-08 TP Four Furlongs 49.80 b 54 03-14 TP 4 Furlongs :50.40 B 38

SIREEssential Quality 86 94%ile turf 14%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-20 32d	CD	7.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	87	3	11	4.0	F	99	81	68	96	98	85	21.72	Luis Saez
2026-05-19 28d	IND	8.318181818181818f	dirt	Fast	MSW	83	2	6	0.2		63	91	117	89	92	85	5.2	Adam Beschizza
2026-04-21 26d	IND	8.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	82	2	8	0.8	S	74	nan	89	88	78	85	5.9	Joseph Ramos
2026-03-26 29d	TP	8.0f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	85	2	5	2.5		104	108	111	87	81	84	2.4	Luan Machado
2026-02-25 35d	TP	8.0f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	84	2	11	8.0	S	91	85	81	87	75	86	7.52	Joseph Ramos
2026-01-21	TP	8.0f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	82	4	10	1.0	S	83	nan	87	87	66	82	10.1	Joseph Ramos

4 Halfway to Omaha THIN DATA

3F 118 lbs L EP

16.4%

MODEL %

5-1

MODEL FAIR

+5.3

EDGE vs ML

8/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig94 0 vs par

Needs +3~25% run that

Class87.3 +4.2 vs race +6.9 gap

MC21.7% fair 7-2

ConfNORMAL σα 0.41

Faced87.0 +2.0 vs today

Pace EP83.9 best 93.9

Pace LP80.2 best 114.8

Energy0.53

Connections

JockAxel Concepcionκ 0.14was Edgar Morales · -0.0

TrnTroy Newtonκ 0.31

J×T3 · 0% win · 33% ITM

Angles

Troy Newton: 2nd off layoff 21% +3% Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23% 2nd off layoff 13% -27%

Record

	Sts	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	3	1	0%	94.1
2026	1	0	0%	94.1
2025	2	1	0%	89.6
ELP	0	0	—	—
Dirt	3	1	0%	94.1
Route	0	0	—	—
Wet	1	0	0%	88.0

WORKS 07-18 HPT Four Furlongs 49.00 b 70

SIREOmaha Beach 86 94%ile turf 16%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-20 211d	CD	7.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	87	9	11	12.2	F	94	50	29	94	90	90	16.66	Edgar Morales
2025-11-21 26d	CD	6.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	MSW	87	4	9	2.8	S	92	97	115	88	66	90	4.47	Julien Leparoux
2025-10-26	CD	7.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	87	2	10	2.8		78	102	98	90	80	87	33.25	Julien Leparoux

8 Dizzy Miss Lizzy THIN DATA

3F 118 lbs L P

2.3%

MODEL %

50-1

MODEL FAIR

-8.8

EDGE vs ML

8/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig92 -2 vs par

Needs +7~8% run that

Class85.0 +1.9 vs race +6.6 gap

MC12.8% fair 7-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.47

Faced78.9 -6.1 vs today

Pace EP82.4 best 94.5

Pace LP82.0 best 86.6

Energy0.50

Connections

JockLuan Machadoκ 0.13was Alexander Bendezu · +0.0

TrnChristopher Davisκ 0.34

J×T20 · 15% win · 45% ITM

Angles

Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	2	2	0%	91.2
2026	2	2	0%	91.2
2025	0	0	—	—
ELP	0	0	—	—
Dirt	1	1	0%	91.2
Route	0	0	—	—
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-24 TP 4 Furlongs :51.40 B 31 07-11 TP Four Furlongs 50.40 b 51 04-04 TP 4 Furlongs :50.20 B 45 03-28 TP 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 44 03-21 TP 3 Furlongs :37.20 B 43

SIREDialed In 84 86%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-18 21d	HAW	5.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	83	2	4	0.1	F	94	92	83	91	88	84	2.0	Alexander Bendezu
2026-05-28	HAW	5.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	75	2	7	3.2	S	78	83	87	83	58	82	5.2	Alexander Bendezu

3 Red Rainbow

3F 118 lbs L P

1.2%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-13.1

EDGE vs ML

6/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig84 -10 vs par

Needs +13~<1% run that

Class83.2 +0.1 vs race +0.6 gap

MC1.8% fair 50-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.32

Faced83.4 -1.6 vs today

Pace EP83.8 best 93.5

Pace LP83.7 best 98.5

Energy0.54

Connections

JockWilliam Antongeorgi IIIκ 0.06

TrnTroy Wismerκ 0.32

J×T25 · 16% win · 36% ITM

Angles

William Antongeorgi III / Troy Wismer 15% +192% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	8	1	1	0%	86.4
2026	5	1	1	0%	86.4
2025	3	0	0	0%	84.3
ELP	1	1	0	0%	86.1
Dirt	7	1	1	0%	86.4
Route	2	1	0	0%	86.1
Wet	2	0	0	0%	84.3

SIREVino Rosso 84 86%ile turf 11%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-09 36d	ELP	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	82	2	7	0.1		94	85	60	86	94	82	6.24	William Antongeorgi III
2026-06-03 35d	CD	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	83	8	10	8.2		89	nan	82	81	80	82	27.65	Samy Camacho
2026-04-29 21d	CD	6.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	Mdn Clm	83	7	10	18.8		90	83	96	77	63	84	20.1	William Antongeorgi III
2026-04-08 46d	KEE	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	84	3	9	5.5	F	70	97	98	86	86	84	17.32	William Antongeorgi III
2026-02-21 94d·2.7×	TP	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	85	9	10	11.0	S	87	85	92	78	62	84	18.47	Gabriel Saez
2025-11-19 28d	CD	8.0f	dirt	Muddy (Sealed)	MSW	88	4	9	11.0	F	85	75	81	84	76	83	53.28	Francisco Arrieta
2025-10-22 24d	KEE	7.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	87	6	10	12.2	F	79	nan	79	78	56	81	72.28	Francisco Arrieta
2025-09-28	CD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	85	8	10	12.5		96	91	87	79	60	85	48.8	Samuel Camacho, Jr.

2 Lunar Loop THIN DATA

3F 118 lbs L C

0.9%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-15.8

EDGE vs ML

5/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig86 -8 vs par

Needs +7~8% run that

Class83.3 +0.2 vs race +2.9 gap

MC3.2% fair 30-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.29

Faced85.0 0.0 vs today

Pace EP83.9 best 90.6

Pace LP88.8 best 106.6

Energy0.53

Connections

JockBen Curtisκ 0.11was Jaime Torres · -0.2

TrnRick Hilesκ 0.38CLAIMEDwas William Walden · -2.7

Record

	Sts	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	3	2	0%	88.1
2026	3	2	0%	88.1
2025	0	0	—	—
ELP	0	0	—	—
Dirt	3	2	0%	88.1
Route	1	1	0%	86.4
Wet	1	1	0%	86.4

WORKS 07-25 CD 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 52 07-15 CD 4 Furlongs :48.60 B 56 07-06 CD Four Furlongs 48.40 b 62 04-07 KEE 4 Furlongs :48.60 B G 63 03-21 PMM 4 Furlongs :49.60 B 54 03-13 PMM 4 Furlongs :48.75 B 42

SIREVekoma 87 95%ile turf 19%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-14 22d	CD	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	85	4	9	12.0	F	91	93	107	86	80	85	2.33	Jaime Torres
2026-05-23 36d	CD	8.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	MSW	84	3	6	7.8	F	84	101	92	86	81	84	2.11	Jaime Torres
2026-04-17	KEE	7.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	86	3	8	11.2	F	89	91	94	88	88	87	6.62	Jaime Torres

5 Spill the Sugar THIN DATA

3F 118 lbs L S

0.4%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-10.7

EDGE vs ML

8/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig90 -4 vs par

Needs +7~8% run that

Class82.8 -0.3 vs race +7.6 gap

MC8.4% fair 10-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.26

Faced83.6 -1.4 vs today

Pace EP84.8 best 102.5

Pace LP78.1 best 88.1

Energy0.53

Connections

JockEdgar Moralesκ 0.15was Axel Concepcion · +0.2

TrnKinnon LaRoseκ 0.34was W. Calhoun · +0.5

Record

	Sts	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	3	1	0%	87.8
2026	3	1	0%	87.8
2025	0	0	—	—
ELP	0	0	—	—
Dirt	3	1	0%	87.8
Route	0	0	—	—
Wet	2	1	0%	87.8

WORKS 07-25 CD 4 Furlongs :48.00 B 68 07-16 CD 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 54 07-09 CD Four Furlongs 49.40 b 53 06-30 CD 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 58 06-06 CD 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 50 05-16 CD 4 Furlongs :50.40 B 36

SIRECandy Ride (Arg) 85 91%ile turf 15%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-14 21d	CD	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	85	7	9	14.2	F	102	88	88	86	78	86	6.03	Axel Concepcion
2026-05-24 36d	CD	6.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	Mdn Clm	85	3	10	3.0		79	91	59	87	70	83	32.19	Axel Concepcion
2026-04-18	LS	6.5f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	MSW	81	4	6	5.2	F	88	80	82	88	74	81	8.0	Jose Alvarez

1 Maxies Bubble Gum

3F 118 lbs L

0.3%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-7.4

EDGE vs ML

12/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig85 -9 vs par

MC2.5% fair 30-1

ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285

⚠ No history — ML-anchored

Connections

JockFrancisco Arrietaκ 0.25

TrnEric Fosterκ 0.21

J×T11 · 27% win · 73% ITM

Angles

Debut 11% -25% Eric Foster: debut 7% -58%

Record

	Win%	Fig
Life	—	—
2026	—	—
2025	—	—
ELP	—	—
Dirt	—	—
Route	—	—
Wet	—	—

WORKS 07-20 ELP 5 Furlongs 1:01.80 B 70 07-14 ELP 4 Furlongs :50.20 B 42 ★07-03 ELP 5 Furlongs 1:03.00 B 46 06-25 ELP 5 Furlongs 1:04.80 B 18 04-26 KEE 3 Furlongs :37.00 B 48

SIREKnown Agenda 84 83%ile 1st-out 14% (35) turf 12%

No prior races in database