ELP 2026-08-01 · US Racing

TRACKS · 2026-08-01

CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO

▸ How to read a horse block

MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σ_α. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.

R1 D R2 D R3 T R4 D R5 T R6 D R7 T R8 D R9 T R10 T

Purse $108,000. Five And One Half Furlongs. (Turf) (Includes $52,000 – KTDF - Kentucky TB Devt Fund). For Three Year Olds. Weight, 122 Lbs. Non-winners Of Two Races On The Turf Since June 1 Allowed 2 Lbs. Such A Race Since Then Allowed 4 Lbs. (Races Where Entered For $50,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances). (If deemed inadvisable by management to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the main track at Five and One Half furlongs.).

TODAY'S CONTENDERS		WIN% · FAIR / ML	QIK%	STY	P1C	CLASS	PROJ	COND	LAST	SUS	J×T
1	Twilight Delight ✓	5% 20-1 / 20/1	4.2%	EP	7th/1w	82 -8.9	91⁴-4	92⁴	91⁶	76⁴	L3★gold	—	3∠
2	Bluegrass Town	12% 8-1 / 12/1	8.3%	EP	3rd/1w	88 -2.8	90⁶-5	92⁴	92⁴	81³	L1J-1.3▲cls	9%	4∠
3	Ganaas	12% 7-1 / 10/1	9.3%	EP	5th/1w	95 +4.6	91⁴-4	92⁴	92⁴	92¹	L2	12%	3∠
4	Trouble Calling	13% 6-1 / 7/5	25.3%	P	6th/1w	94 +3.5	93¹-2	96¹	93³	—		0%	✓+2.41∠
5	Ketchum	8% 12-1 / 12/1	6.8%	P	4th/2w	87 -3.2	92³-3	94³	94²	86²	L3★goldJ+0.6▲cls	—	3∠
6	Two Seven O ✓	48% 6-5 / 1/1	42.9%	EP	2nd/4w	94 +3.6	93¹-2	95²	95¹	—	L2	22%	✓+3.4★PRIME4∠
7	Tiz Mary's Comet	2% 50-1 / 20/1	3.2%	EP	1st/4w	91 +0.4	84⁷-11	83⁷	83⁷	—		11%	2∠

Pace Projector SPEED DUEL (3+) closers favored 1st¼ 21.9s par 22.4 EP/LP

ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 7 »»» 101/101 Tiz Mary's Comet 6 »»» 92/98 Two Seven O 2 LP 91/118 Bluegrass Town 5 » 90/100 Ketchum 3 106/100 Ganaas 4 109/96 Trouble Calling 1 95/112 Twilight Delight

On the lead: 7, 6, 2, 5, 3 · race sets up for closers

6 Two Seven O ★ PRIME

3G 120 lbs L EP

47.6%

MODEL %

6-5

MODEL FAIR

-2.4

EDGE vs ML

1/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig93 -2 vs par

Needs fits levelbase 98 vs par 95

Class94.1 +3.6 vs race -1.2 gap

MC20.3% fair 4-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.46

Faced87.4 -3.5 vs today

Pace EP83.9 best 91.6

Pace LP84.7 best 98.4

Energy0.53

Connections

JockFrancisco Arrietaκ 0.25

TrnDavid Fawkesκ 0.3

J×T27 · 22% win · 56% ITM

Angles

Francisco Arrieta / David Fawkes 25% +45% David Fawkes: 2nd off layoff 19% +0% Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23% 2nd off layoff 13% -27%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	7	5	1	71%	100.3
2026	4	4	0	100%	100.3
2025	3	1	1	33%	89.9
ELP	1	1	0	100%	95.4
Turf	1	1	0	100%	95.4
Sprint	7	5	1	71%	100.3
Wet	3	2	0	67%	100.3

WORKS 11-02 Churchill Downs 3f:~ 38.2 nan 07-23 CD 4 Furlongs :47.80 B 67 06-21 CD 5 Furlongs 1:03.40 B 50 ◆Beautiful War·92 06-21 Churchill Downs 5f:~ 1:03.4 nan 06-13 CD 5 Furlongs 1:03.40 B 18 06-13 Churchill Downs 5f:~ 1:03.4 nan

SIREDialed In 84 86%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-04 64d	ELP	5.5f	turf	Firm	Stk	93	1	7	0.0	F	—	—	—	95	100	93	5.14	Francisco Arrieta
2026-05-01 34d	OP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	91	1	7	0.0	F	92	84	85	100	110	91	6.8	Edwin Gonzalez
2026-03-28 42d	OP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	89	1	7	0.0	F	85	89	93	99	100	88	4.0	Francisco Arrieta
2026-02-14 87d	OP	6.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	Clm	86	1	11	0.0	F	86	78	78	100	95	86	17.0	Francisco Arrieta
2025-11-19 14d	CD	6.0f	dirt	Muddy (Sealed)	Mdn Clm	79	1	8	0.0	S	82	89	83	90	78	85	0.81	Erik Asmussen
2025-11-05 45d	CD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	81	2	7	2.0		86	83	98	90	80	81	1.45	Keith Asmussen
2025-09-21	CD	6.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	Mdn Clm	84	7	11	10.8		81	nan	95	85	65	84	10.57	Luis Saez

4 Trouble Calling

3C 120 lbs L P

13.4%

MODEL %

6-1

MODEL FAIR

-28.3

EDGE vs ML

7/5

M/L

Form

Proj Fig93 -2 vs par

Needs fits levelbase 95 vs par 95

Class94.0 +3.5 vs race -1.2 gap

MC22.2% fair 7-2

ConfNORMAL σα 0.33

Faced91.4 +0.5 vs today

Pace EP90.1 best 109.1

Pace LP76.3 best 95.9

Energy0.52

Connections

JockAxel Concepcionκ 0.14was Ben Curtis · +0.4

TrnGregory Foleyκ 0.33

J×T5 · 0% win · 60% ITM

Angles

Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	9	3	3	1	33%	98.5
2026	6	3	2	0	50%	98.5
2025	3	0	1	1	0%	93.4
ELP	1	0	1	0	0%	92.9
Turf	2	1	1	0	50%	95.6
Sprint	8	3	3	1	38%	98.5
Wet	2	1	1	0	50%	96.5

WORKS 11-14 Churchill Downs 4f:~ 48.8 nan 08-26 Churchill Downs 4f:~ 48 nan 07-23 CD 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 39 06-24 CD 4 Furlongs :47.00 B 82 ◆Troubleshooting·95 06-24 Churchill Downs 4f:~ 47 nan 05-29 CD 4 Furlongs :48.20 B 58

SIREDialed In 84 86%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-04 27d	ELP	5.5f	turf	Firm	Stk	93	2	7	2.0	F	—	—	—	93	97	93	0.64	Ben Curtis
2026-06-07 36d	CD	5.5f	turf	Firm	Alw	92	1	7	0.0	F	96	85	83	96	105	92	2.86	Luis Saez
2026-05-02 29d	CD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	G2	93	8	11	17.5	F	98	83	57	96	97	92	12.24	Luis Saez
2026-04-03 48d	KEE	7.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	Stk	93	1	7	0.0	F	94	93	96	96	102	89	4.7	Luis Saez
2026-02-14 28d	FG	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	85	1	9	0.0	F	84	80	46	98	109	88	1.5	Luis Saez
2026-01-17 55d	FG	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	85	2	11	1.2		109	89	88	98	107	88	8.9	Luis Saez
2025-11-23 35d	CD	6.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	88	9	12	13.8	F	71	78	85	90	81	91	6.07	Brian Hernandez, Jr.
2025-10-19 37d	KEE	6.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	MSW	88	2	12	0.1	F	87	64	49	91	84	90	2.32	Tyler Gaffalione
2025-09-12	CD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	88	3	12	4.2	F	76	nan	80	93	90	88	13.49	Tyler Gaffalione

3 Ganaas

3C 118 lbs L EP

12.4%

MODEL %

7-1

MODEL FAIR

+3.3

EDGE vs ML

10/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig91 -4 vs par

Needs +2~31% run that

Class95.1 +4.6 vs race -4.5 gap

MC13.8% fair 6-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.25

Faced89.8 -1.1 vs today

Pace EP85.8 best 106.1

Pace LP84.1 best 100.0

Energy0.52

Connections

JockEdgar Moralesκ 0.15

TrnAndrew McKeeverκ 0.29

J×T25 · 12% win · 32% ITM

Angles

2nd off layoff 13% -27% Andrew McKeever: 2nd off layoff 9% -69% Edgar Morales / Andrew McKeever 9% -51%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	6	2	1	33%	95.3
2026	2	0	1	0%	92.4
2025	4	2	0	50%	95.3
ELP	0	0	0	—	—
Turf	2	0	1	0%	92.4
Sprint	4	2	1	50%	95.3
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-25 KEE 4 Furlongs :48.20 B 61 ★07-18 KEE 5 Furlongs 1:00.00 B 87 07-10 KEE Four Furlongs 49.60 b 44 04-26 KEE 4 Furlongs :50.60 B 37 ★03-29 KEE 4 Furlongs :50.20 B 64 03-21 KEE 5 Furlongs 1:01.60 B 66

SIREWar Front 87 95%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-07 65d	CD	5.5f	turf	Firm	Alw	92	2	7	3.0	F	92	85	91	92	101	95	10.19	Edgar Morales
2026-04-03 112d	KEE	8.5f	turf	Good	G3	93	10	11	5.2	F	106	84	83	90	83	93	44.35	Edgar Morales
2025-12-12 47d	OP	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Stk	88	5	7	6.8	F	89	76	70	95	90	93	5.9	Edgar Morales
2025-10-26 44d	CD	8.5f	dirt	Fast	G3	89	5	6	4.8		72	95	100	94	93	92	3.69	Edgar Morales
2025-09-12 64d	CD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	86	1	8	0.0		86	84	89	94	90	86	7.07	Edgar Morales
2025-07-10	IND	5.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	81	1	5	0.0	S	84	nan	95	92	84	81	2.1	Edgar Morales

2 Bluegrass Town

3C 118 lbs L EP

11.6%

MODEL %

8-1

MODEL FAIR

+3.9

EDGE vs ML

12/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig90 -5 vs par

Needs +3~22% run that

Class87.7 -2.8 vs race +2.2 gap

MC10.1% fair 9-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.24

Faced84.8 -6.1 vs today

Pace EP80.2 best 91.1

Pace LP84.5 best 118.1

Energy0.53

Connections

JockDanny Sheehyκ 0.12was Jose Ortiz · -1.3

TrnBrendan Walshκ 0.61

J×T33 · 9% win · 36% ITM

Angles

Brendan Walsh: off layoff (60d+) 16% -14% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% Danny Sheehy / Brendan Walsh 11% -43% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	5	1	1	2	20%	92.4
2026	0	0	0	0	—	—
2025	5	1	1	2	20%	92.4
ELP	0	0	0	0	—	—
Turf	4	1	1	1	25%	92.4
Sprint	5	1	1	2	20%	92.4
Wet	0	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-24 TP 5 Furlongs 1:02.00 B 62 07-17 TP 4 Furlongs :49.40 B G 52 07-10 TP Five Furlongs 1:01.20 b 75

SIRESpeightstown 86 94%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2025-12-27 29d	FG	5.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	84	1	9	0.0	F	88	80	74	92	102	87	1.0	Jose Ortiz
2025-11-28 47d	FG	5.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	84	2	11	0.1	F	91	91	87	92	98	86	1.1	Ben Curtis
2025-10-12 35d	KEE	5.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	88	3	12	3.2	F	86	90	104	91	84	83	3.85	Tyler Gaffalione
2025-09-07 32d	KD	6.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	86	4	11	6.8	F	78	89	118	87	83	78	3.76	Lanfranco Dettori
2025-08-06	IND	5.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	81	3	6	10.5	F	59	65	53	84	79	81	2.8	Edgar Morales

5 Ketchum

3G 120 lbs L P

7.9%

MODEL %

12-1

MODEL FAIR

+0.2

EDGE vs ML

12/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig92 -3 vs par

Needs +5~10% run that

Class87.3 -3.2 vs race +4.5 gap

MC14.9% fair 6-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.28

Faced85.1 -5.8 vs today

Pace EP81.0 best 90.2

Pace LP82.1 best 100.2

Energy0.52

Connections

JockBen Curtisκ 0.11was Luis Colon · +0.6

TrnChris Blockκ 0.37

Angles

3yo, 3rd off layoff 15% -21% 3rd off layoff 14% -22% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	1st	Win%	Fig
Life	5	3	60%	94.3
2026	4	2	50%	94.3
2025	1	1	100%	92.2
ELP	0	0	—	—
Turf	5	3	60%	94.3
Sprint	5	3	60%	94.3
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS ★07-26 HAW 3 Furlongs :34.20 B 56 ★07-19 HAW 3 Furlongs :36.20 B 49 ★07-11 HAW 3 Furlongs :34.60 B 58 06-17 HAW 5 Furlongs 1:01.20 B 64 ★06-05 HAW 4 Furlongs :47.20 B 74 05-29 HAW 4 Furlongs :48.60 B G 48

SIRECaravaggio 84 86%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-28 50d	HAW	7.5f	turf	Good	Alw	83	1	6	0.0		71	102	100	94	83	87	0.6	Luis Colon
2026-05-09 97d	CD	5.5f	turf	Firm	Stk	94	7	7	11.0	F	—	—	—	86	83	86	20.33	Jareth Loveberry
2026-02-01 29d	FG	5.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	86	4	6	1.5		90	92	75	90	90	83	0.6	Jareth Loveberry
2026-01-03 79d	FG	5.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	85	1	9	0.0	F	84	76	83	92	97	79	5.6	Jareth Loveberry
2025-10-16	HAW	5.5f	turf	Good	MSW	78	1	8	0.0	S	81	99	77	92	70	76	1.7	Alexis Centeno

1 Twilight Delight

3C 118 lbs L EP

4.7%

MODEL %

20-1

MODEL FAIR

-0.1

EDGE vs ML

20/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig91 -4 vs par

Needs +5~10% run that

Class81.6 -8.9 vs race +9.2 gap

MC15.9% fair 5-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.26

Faced90.1 -0.8 vs today

Pace EP83.9 best 95.2

Pace LP88.2 best 112.0

Energy0.52

Connections

JockYedsit Hazlewoodκ 0.24was Paco Lopez · +0.1

TrnDaniel Leitchκ 0.4

Angles

First-time turf 10% -26% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26%

Record

	Sts	1st	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	5	1	1	20%	92.0
2026	2	0	0	0%	91.0
2025	3	1	1	33%	92.0
ELP	1	1	0	100%	92.0
Turf	5	1	1	20%	92.0
Sprint	5	1	1	20%	92.0
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 09-27 Keeneland Race Course 4f:~ 50.6 nan 08-23 Keeneland Race Course 4f:~ 51.8 nan 07-04 WYO 220 Yards :12.81 B G 06-24 Keeneland Race Course 4f:~ 48.2 nan 05-01 KEE 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 41 04-24 KEE 4 Furlongs :51.00 B 55

SIRETwirling Candy 84 86%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-12 50d	CNL	5.5f	turf	Good	Alw	89	5	10	2.2		73	87	80	91	99	84	2.5	Paco Lopez
2026-05-23 231d·4.6×	BAQ	6.0f	turf	Good	Stk	93	5	9	4.5	S	76	75	112	90	70	87	9.7	Jaime Rodriguez
2025-10-04 34d	SA	5.0f	turf	Firm	Stk	89	3	12	2.0	F	93	83	73	90	90	93	4.4	Kazushi Kimura
2025-08-31 30d	KD	6.5f	turf	Firm	Stk	92	4	10	5.8	F	95	97	96	86	79	93	8.94	Gabriel Saez
2025-08-01	ELP	5.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	88	1	11	0.0		94	85	105	92	89	88	11.91	Gabriel Saez

7 Tiz Mary's Comet

3G 118 lbs L EP

2.3%

MODEL %

50-1

MODEL FAIR

-2.5

EDGE vs ML

20/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig84 -11 vs par

Needs +4~19% run that

Class90.9 +0.4 vs race -6.6 gap

MC2.6% fair 30-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.37

Faced90.5 -0.4 vs today

Pace EP87.2 best 100.7

Pace LP84.5 best 101.3

Energy0.54

Connections

JockJaime Torresκ 0.14was Axel Concepcion · +0.1

TrnJoe Sharpκ 0.4

J×T61 · 11% win · 31% ITM

Angles

Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23% Jaime Torres / Joe Sharp 15% -13%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	7	2	2	29%	97.6
2026	6	1	2	17%	97.6
2025	1	1	0	100%	92.0
ELP	1	0	0	0%	83.1
Turf	1	0	0	0%	83.1
Sprint	7	2	2	29%	97.6
Wet	1	1	0	100%	95.3

WORKS 07-18 CD 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 55 05-20 EVD 5 Furlongs 1:06.80 B 30 04-21 EVD 4 Furlongs :51.00 B 49 03-20 FG 5 Furlongs 1:06.80 B 5 03-07 FG 5 Furlongs 1:03.80 B 32

SIREGood Samaritan 82 60%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-04 28d	ELP	5.5f	turf	Firm	Stk	93	6	7	11.0	F	—	—	—	83	84	91	20.74	Axel Concepcion
2026-06-06 36d	EVD	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Stk	90	6	8	2.8		93	91	101	98	99	91	13.3	Devin Magnon
2026-05-01 27d	OP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	91	6	7	9.5	F	86	82	101	93	98	91	17.1	Devin Magnon
2026-04-04 47d	EVD	6.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	Stk	88	1	8	0.0		86	74	85	95	93	91	0.5	Devin Magnon
2026-02-16 29d	OP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	90	2	7	1.5	F	101	80	48	96	93	88	7.8	Devin Magnon
2026-01-18 21d	FG	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	85	2	8	0.1	F	92	nan	101	96	96	83	25.7	Devin Magnon
2025-12-28	FG	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	77	1	8	0.0	F	95	nan	80	92	83	78	7.2	Devin Magnon