TRACKS · 2026-08-01
CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO
ALL CARDS ↗
▸ How to read a horse block
MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σα. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.
R1 D R2 D R3 T R4 D R5 T R6 D R7 T R8 D R9 T R10 T
R6 MAIDEN OPTIONAL CLAIMING
ELP 2026-08-01 Seven Furlongs DIRT
83
strength
-0.3 fair
86
win par
fig to beat
HONEST PACE
shape
HONEST
early pace
1st¼ 23.2s / par 23.2
TOP-HEAVY
field
figs 71.7–87.0
Purse $53,000. Seven Furlongs. (Includes $19,000 – KTDF - Kentucky TB Devt Fund). For Auction Maidens, Two Years Old. Weight, 119 Lbs. Claiming Price $50,000 For Horses That Sold Or RNA For $65,000 Or Less In Their Most Recent Auction Or Claiming Price $50,000.
TODAY'S CONTENDERS WIN% · FAIR / ML QIK% STY P1C CLASS PROJ COND LAST SUS J×T
1 Lagos 0% 99-1 / 4/1 8.8% 9th/1w — 856-1 — — — 11% 2∠
2 Windsock 0% 99-1 / 12/1 3.4% 6th/1w — 871+1 — — — 16% 3∠
3 In the Hunt 0% 99-1 / 15/1 2.8% 13th/1w — 8111-5 — — — — 1∠
4 Celtic Mo 1% 99-1 / 7/2 10.1% 5th/1w 80 -2.8 8013-6 733 734 783 J+0.8▼cls 15% 2∠
5 Romo 0% 99-1 / 15/1 2.8% 10th/1w — 856-1 — — — 19% 3∠
6 Get Your Steps In 13% 6-1 / 12/1 8.7% 4th/1w 85 +1.8 865+0 — 802 — J-1.8T→D▼cls 10% ⚠-2.73∠
7 Title Worthy 0% 99-1 / 8/1 4.9% 7th/1w — 871+1 — — — — 2∠
8 When I Go 0% 99-1 / 20/1 2.2% 12th/1w — 848-2 — — — — 2∠
9 Innocent No More 0% 99-1 / 5/1 7.4% 8th/1w — 871+1 — — — 16% 3∠
10 Lords Prayer 0% 99-1 / 20/1 2.2% 11th/2w — 848-2 — — — 20% 3∠
11 Ditlihi 64% 3-5 / 6/1 31.9% 2nd/2w 91 +7.9 871+1 861 861 901 ▼cls 11% ✓+3.4★PRIME3∠
12 Honor and Courage 0% 99-1 / 20/1 2.2% P 1st/2w 84 +0.8 8310-3 — — — — 3∠
13 Wilkin County 19% 4-1 / 15/1 10.5% 3rd/3w 82 -1.3 8111-5 782 783 792 J+0.9▲cls 7% LS2∠
14 That's Fire 0% 99-1 / 20/1 2.2% 14th/3w 77 -6.5 7214-14 674 675 764 T-4.3 — ⚠-4.51∠
Pace Projector HONEST PACE 1st¼ 23.2s par 23.2 EP/LP
ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 12 » Honor and Courage 11 C★ » 87/94 Ditlihi 13 »» 88/70 Wilkin County 6 Get Your Steps In 4 84/73 Celtic Mo 2 Windsock 7 Title Worthy 9 Innocent No More 1 Lagos 5 Romo 10 » Lords Prayer 8 When I Go 3 In the Hunt 14 »» 86/67 That's Fire
11 Ditlihi ★ PRIME THIN DATA
2C 119 lbs
64.2%
MODEL %
3-5
MODEL FAIR
+49.9
EDGE vs ML
6/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig87 +1 vs par
Needs fits levelbase 86 vs par 86
Class91.0 +7.9 vs race -4.2 gap
MC12.5% fair 7-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.4
Faced87.0 +4.2 vs today
Pace EP81.6 best 86.5
Pace LP83.6 best 94.3
Energy0.50
Connections
JockDanny Sheehyκ 0.12
TrnJohn Ennisκ 0.26
J×T54 · 11% win · 26% ITM
Angles
Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23% 2nd career start 13% -28% Danny Sheehy / John Ennis 12% -38%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 10000%85.6
2026 10000%85.6
2025 0000——
ELP 0000——
Dirt 10000%85.6
Sprint 10000%85.6
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-21 TTC 4 Furlongs :52.00 B 22 ★07-15 TTC 4 Furlongs :48.60 B 70 ★07-07 TTC 3 Furlongs :35.60 B 55 06-13 TTC 3 Furlongs :37.00 B 42 06-04 TTC 4 Furlongs :48.60 B G 60 05-28 TTC 4 Furlongs :49.60 B G 56
SIREDialed In 84 86%ile turf 11%
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-19 CD 5.0f dirt Fast MSW 87 4 7 1.5 86 97 94 86 78 87 31.3 Danny Sheehy
13 Wilkin County LONGSHOT THIN DATA
2C 119 lbs
19.4%
MODEL %
4-1
MODEL FAIR
+13.1
EDGE vs ML
15/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig81 -5 vs par
Needs +8~6% run that
Class81.8 -1.3 vs race -0.7 gap
MC3.3% fair 30-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.42
Faced79.2 -3.6 vs today
Pace EP82.1 best 88.3
Pace LP77.5 best 70.0
Energy0.51
Connections
JockWesley Hoκ 0.04was Constantino Roman · +0.9
TrnLynn Rarickκ -0.0
J×T14 · 7% win · 21% ITM
Angles
2nd career start 13% -28% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 10100%77.7
2026 10100%77.7
2025 0000——
ELP 0000——
Dirt 10100%77.7
Sprint 10100%77.7
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-21 CBY 4 Furlongs :50.25 B 45 06-25 CBY 4 Furlongs :49.52 B G 06-06 CBY 5 Furlongs 1:01.62 B 05-29 CBY 4 Furlongs :47.85 B ★05-21 CBY 5 Furlongs 1:02.01 B 05-13 CBY 4 Furlongs :49.14 B
SIREHard Spun 84 86%ile turf 15%
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-03 CBY 4.5f dirt Fast MSW 79 2 4 3.8 S 88 88 70 78 61 79 2.4 Constantino Roman
6 Get Your Steps In THIN DATA
2C 119 lbs
13.3%
MODEL %
6-1
MODEL FAIR
+5.6
EDGE vs ML
12/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig86 0 vs par
Needs +6~11% run that
Class84.9 +1.8 vs race +0.9 gap
MC11.2% fair 8-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.36
Faced88.3 +5.5 vs today
≠ Cross-surface α
Connections
JockJane Elliottκ -0.01was Luis Saez · -1.8
TrnAlbert Stall, Jr.κ 0.52
J×T10 · 10% win · 40% ITM
Angles
Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23% Turf-to-dirt 14% -27% 2nd career start 13% -28%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 10000%79.8
2026 10000%79.8
2025 0000——
ELP 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 10000%79.8
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-25 CD 4 Furlongs :51.80 B 26 ◆In Total Awe·97 07-16 CD 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 52 07-04 CD 4 Furlongs :48.20 B 66 06-13 CD 3 Furlongs :37.80 B G 37 06-06 CD 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 48 05-29 CD 4 Furlongs :49.60 B G 42
SIRETom'S D'Etat 84 86%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-18 CD 5.5f turf Firm MSW 88 8 10 11.2 — — — 80 69 88 16.5 Luis Saez
4 Celtic Mo THIN DATA
2C 119 lbs
1.0%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-21.2
EDGE vs ML
7/2
M/L
Form
Proj Fig80 -6 vs par
Needs +13~2% run that
Class80.3 -2.8 vs race -0.2 gap
MC3.9% fair 25-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.46
Faced88.3 +5.5 vs today
Pace EP80.9 best 83.8
Pace LP78.2 best 72.9
Energy0.53
Connections
JockFrancisco Arrietaκ 0.25was Luis Saez · +0.8
TrnEddie Kenneallyκ 0.43
J×T13 · 15% win · 46% ITM
Angles
Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23% 2nd career start 13% -28%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 10000%73.3
2026 10000%73.3
2025 0000——
ELP 0000——
Dirt 10000%73.3
Sprint 10000%73.3
Wet 10000%73.3
WORKS 07-24 CD 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 39 07-15 CD 4 Furlongs :49.80 B 41 07-07 CD Four Furlongs 49.80 b 47 ★06-24 CD 3 Furlongs :35.60 B 56 06-24 Churchill Downs 3f:~ 35.6 nan ★06-19 CD 5 Furlongs :59.60 B 85 ◆Sweet Venture
SIREUncle Mo 86 93%ile turf 18%
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-27 CD 6.0f dirt Sloppy (Sealed) MSW 88 7 7 27.5 F 84 80 73 73 59 88 2.09 Luis Saez
2 Windsock
2C 119 lbs
0.2%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-7.5
EDGE vs ML
12/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig87 +1 vs par
MC12.1% fair 7-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockCristian Torresκ 0.14
TrnRodolphe Brissetκ 0.52
J×T38 · 16% win · 50% ITM
Angles
Cristian Torres / Rodolphe Brisset 14% -17% Rodolphe Brisset: debut 11% -32% Debut 11% -25%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
ELP 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-26 ELP 4 Furlongs :49.60 B 50 07-19 ELP 4 Furlongs :49.80 B 47 ★07-10 ELP 4 Furlongs :48.40 H G 69 07-03 ELP 4 Furlongs :49.60 B 52 06-25 Keeneland Race Course 4f:~ 48.6 nan
SIREMckinzie 87 95%ile 1st-out 21% (119) turf 11%
No prior races in database
7 Title Worthy
2C 119 lbs
0.2%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-10.9
EDGE vs ML
8/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig87 +1 vs par
MC11.3% fair 8-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockGerardo Corralesκ 0.19
TrnDallas Stewartκ 0.51
Angles
Dallas Stewart: debut 12% +21% Debut 11% -25%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
ELP 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-22 CD 5 Furlongs 1:02.40 B G 32 07-15 CD 5 Furlongs 1:00.20 B 73 07-08 CD Four Furlongs 48.00 bg 63 ★06-30 CD 4 Furlongs :46.80 B 81 06-20 CD 4 Furlongs :48.40 B 60 ★06-13 CD 3 Furlongs :35.40 B 58
SIRETitle Ready 102 100%ile
No prior races in database
9 Innocent No More
2C 119 lbs
0.2%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-16.5
EDGE vs ML
5/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig87 +1 vs par
MC10.4% fair 9-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockAxel Concepcionκ 0.14
TrnGeorge Arnold IIκ 0.55
J×T43 · 16% win · 44% ITM
Angles
Axel Concepcion / George Arnold II 16% +40% Debut 11% -25% George Arnold II: debut 7% -19%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
ELP 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-25 CD 5 Furlongs 1:01.00 B 64 ★07-17 CD 4 Furlongs :47.40 B G 70 07-07 CD Four Furlongs 49.80 b 47 06-30 CD 4 Furlongs :49.60 B 47 06-19 CD 4 Furlongs :50.20 B 32 06-11 CD 3 Furlongs :37.80 B 35
SIREBlame 85 88%ile 1st-out 16% (285) turf 14%
No prior races in database
1 Lagos
2C 119 lbs
0.2%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-19.8
EDGE vs ML
4/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig85 -1 vs par
MC9.3% fair 10-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockBen Curtisκ 0.11
TrnMichael Makerκ 0.4
J×T18 · 11% win · 39% ITM
Angles
Michael Maker: debut 13% -21% Debut 11% -25%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
ELP 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-25 ELP 4 Furlongs :50.60 B 41 07-14 CD Five Furlongs 1:01.40 b 51 07-07 CD Five Furlongs 1:01.60 b 56
SIRESilver State 85 88%ile 1st-out 9% (34) turf 12%
No prior races in database
5 Romo
2C 119 lbs
0.2%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-6.0
EDGE vs ML
15/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig85 -1 vs par
MC8.1% fair 12-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockRafael Bejaranoκ 0.27
TrnRon Moquettκ 0.21
J×T189 · 19% win · 44% ITM
Angles
Rafael Bejarano / Ron Moquett 16% +9% Debut 11% -25% Ron Moquett: debut 10% -15%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
ELP 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-20 ELP 4 Furlongs :53.00 B 17 ★07-12 ELP 3 Furlongs :36.00 H G 52 07-05 ELP 4 Furlongs :51.20 B 30 06-29 ELP 4 Furlongs :47.80 B 76
SIREUnion Rags 84 84%ile 1st-out 15% (390) turf 8%
No prior races in database
10 Lords Prayer
2C 119 lbs
0.2%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-4.6
EDGE vs ML
20/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig84 -2 vs par
MC5.6% fair 15-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockAlex Achardκ 0.14
TrnJohn Ennisκ 0.26
J×T51 · 20% win · 45% ITM
Angles
Debut 11% -25% Alex Achard / John Ennis 10% -40% John Ennis: debut 6% -38%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
ELP 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS ★07-23 TTC 4 Furlongs :48.00 B G 73 ★07-15 TTC 4 Furlongs :48.60 B 70 07-08 TTC 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 57 06-26 TTC 3 Furlongs :38.00 B 39 06-20 TTC 3 Furlongs :35.80 B G 57 06-12 TTC 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 49
SIREKnown Agenda 84 83%ile 1st-out 14% (35) turf 12%
No prior races in database
8 When I Go
2G 119 lbs
0.2%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-4.6
EDGE vs ML
20/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig84 -2 vs par
MC4.5% fair 20-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockYedsit Hazlewoodκ 0.24
TrnEric Fosterκ 0.21
Angles
Debut 11% -25% Eric Foster: debut 7% -58%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
ELP 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-24 ELP 5 Furlongs 1:03.60 B 32 07-09 ELP 5 Furlongs 1:01.20 H G 71 06-30 ELP 4 Furlongs :48.00 H G 74 06-14 CD 4 Furlongs :49.40 B G 53
SIREMandaloun 99 99%ile 1st-out 29% (7)
No prior races in database
3 In the Hunt
2C 119 lbs
0.2%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-6.0
EDGE vs ML
15/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig81 -5 vs par
MC3.9% fair 25-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockAbel Cedilloκ 0.09
TrnRaymond Brynerκ 0.01
Angles
Debut 11% -25%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
ELP 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS ★07-28 CDT 3 Furlongs :37.40 B 52 07-21 CDT 4 Furlongs :49.40 B G 57 07-14 CDT 4 Furlongs :48.00 B G 70 07-07 CDT 4 Furlongs :48.20 B G 68 06-29 CDT 5 Furlongs 1:00.60 B 73 06-20 CDT 4 Furlongs :49.40 B G 49
SIRECharlatan 88 97%ile 1st-out 23% (48) turf 20%
No prior races in database
12 Honor and Courage
2G 119 lbs P
0.2%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-4.6
EDGE vs ML
20/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig83 -3 vs par
Class83.9 +0.8 vs race -1.3 gap
MC3.5% fair 25-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
Connections
JockAdam Beschizzaκ 0.08
TrnThomas Vanceκ 0.18
Angles
1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% Thomas Vance: off layoff (60d+) 10% -11% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
ELP 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-15 CD 4 Furlongs :49.00 B G 50 06-30 CD 4 Furlongs :47.60 B 72 06-20 CD 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 51 06-20 Churchill Downs 4f:~ 49.2 nan 06-13 CD 3 Furlongs :38.40 B 30 05-05 CD 3 Furlongs :36.20 B 50
SIREHonor Code 84 82%ile turf 15%
No prior races in database
14 That's Fire THIN DATA
2G 119 lbs
0.2%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-4.6
EDGE vs ML
20/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig72 -14 vs par
Needs +19~<1% run that
Class76.6 -6.5 vs race -4.9 gap
MC0.3% fair 99-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.58
Faced84.6 +1.8 vs today
Pace EP81.4 best 85.6
Pace LP76.8 best 67.1
Energy0.53
Connections
JockAssael Espinozaκ 0.05
TrnRaymond Brynerκ 0.01was Peter Miller · -4.3
Angles
2nd career start 13% -28%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 10000%66.6
2026 10000%66.6
2025 0000——
ELP 10000%66.6
Dirt 10000%66.6
Sprint 10000%66.6
Wet 10000%66.6
WORKS ★07-28 CDT 3 Furlongs :37.40 B 52 ★07-21 CDT 4 Furlongs :47.60 B 79 07-04 CDT 4 Furlongs :48.40 B G 65 06-29 CDT 5 Furlongs 1:00.60 B 74 06-20 CDT 5 Furlongs 1:03.80 B G 30 06-13 CDT 4 Furlongs :49.40 B G 46
SIREFlameaway 82 64%ile turf 16%
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-11 ELP 6.0f dirt Sloppy (Sealed) Mdn 85 8 8 25.5 86 77 67 67 44 85 21.21 Assael Espinoza