ELP 2026-08-01 · US Racing

TRACKS · 2026-08-01

CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO

▸ How to read a horse block

MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σ_α. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.

R1 D R2 D R3 T R4 D R5 T R6 D R7 T R8 D R9 T R10 T

ELP 2026-08-01 Five And One Half Furlongs TURF

strength

-4.6 soft

win par

fig to beat

SPEED DUEL

shape

closers favored

FAST

early pace

1st¼ 21.9s / par 22.4

TOP-HEAVY

field

figs 76.3–90.8

Purse $200,000. Five And One Half Furlongs. (Turf) (Includes $100,000 – KTDF - Kentucky TB Devt Fund). For Two Year Olds.

TODAY'S CONTENDERS		WIN% · FAIR / ML	QIK%	STY	P1C	CLASS	PROJ	COND	LAST	SUS	J×T
1	Tolstoy	1% 99-1 / 8/1	5.1%	EP	6th/1w	88 -5.6	82¹¹-11	83⁴	83⁹	85⁹	L2J-1.8D→T	18%	⚠-2.06∠
2	Fortune King	0% 99-1 / 30/1	1.5%	EP	2nd/1w	82 -11.7	76¹⁵-17	74⁶	79¹⁴	86⁸	J+2.8D→T▲cls	18%	✓+1.64∠
3	Crack On ✓	0% 99-1 / 20/1	2.2%	C	14th/1w	92 -1.6	87⁴-6	84³	83⁹	93³		14%	1∠
4	Admiral's Order ✓	20% 4-1 / 8/1	12.9%		11th/1w	93 -1.3	86⁶-7	—	92³	82¹⁰	D→T	11%	6∠
5	Colucci	0% 99-1 / 30/1	1.4%		13th/1w	85 -9.0	79¹⁴-14	—	79¹⁴	74¹³	S→T▲cls	33%	4∠
6	Arctic Wolf	25% 3-1 / 5/1	17.2%		10th/1w	91 -3.0	91¹-2	94¹	94¹	—	T-1.0J-0.6▲cls	0%	✓+2.22∠
7	Mr Gerson	1% 99-1 / 30/1	1.9%	EP	4th/2w	84 -9.8	85⁸-8	82⁵	82¹²	104¹	T+3.4J+2.7▲cls	20%	✓+4.12∠
8	Good to Be King	0% 99-1 / 15/1	2.8%	P	5th/1w	92 -1.4	86⁶-7	85²	85⁸	—		16%	2∠
9	Sargent Bilko	2% 50-1 / 8/1	5.8%	C	15th/1w	91 -3.0	87⁴-6	—	87⁴	93³	L2D→T	15%	5∠
10	Hey Tuff Guy	4% 25-1 / 9/2	9.6%	E	1st/3w	91 -2.5	88³-5	—	87⁴	90⁶	D→T	30%	4∠
11	American Pope	2% 50-1 / 30/1	2.3%	S	8th/2w	88 -6.2	82¹¹-11	—	86⁷	95²	J+3.1KEYD→T	—	✓+1.64∠
12	Fanshell Beach	42% 7-5 / 9/5	32.4%		9th/2w	93 -0.6	90²-3	—	94¹	79¹¹	L12S◈freshD→T	25%	✓+3.4★PRIME7∠
13	Super Saiyajin	0% 99-1 / 30/1	1.5%	EP	3rd/4w	87 -6.7	83⁹-10	—	82¹²	78¹²	D→T	18%	4∠
14	Red Sun	0% 99-1 / 30/1	1.5%	S	7th/3w	82 -11.5	83⁹-10	—	83⁹	89⁷	D→T▲cls	29%	3∠
15	Issachar	1% 99-1 / 30/1	1.8%		12th/3w	89 -4.6	82¹¹-11	—	87⁴	93³	L1CLMT-4.1J-1.2D→T▲cls	—	⚠-5.07∠

Pace Projector SPEED DUEL closers favored 1st¼ 21.9s par 22.4 EP/LP

ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 10 »» 93/87 Hey Tuff Guy 2 90/102 Fortune King 13 »»» 110/90 Super Saiyajin 7 C★ » 114/118 Mr Gerson 8 Good to Be King 1 97/97 Tolstoy 14 »» 88/96 Red Sun 11 » 106/96 American Pope 12 » 102/55 Fanshell Beach 6 Arctic Wolf 4 83/81 Admiral's Order 15 »» 94/93 Issachar 5 82/66 Colucci 3 83/106 Crack On 9 94/95 Sargent Bilko

On the lead: 10, 2 · race sets up for closers

12 Fanshell Beach ★ PRIME THIN DATA

2F 117 lbs

41.9%

MODEL %

7-5

MODEL FAIR

+6.2

EDGE vs ML

9/5

M/L

Form

Proj Fig90 -3 vs par

Needs fits levelbase 94 vs par 93

Class93.3 -0.6 vs race -2.9 gap

MC7.3% fair 12-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.44

Faced88.3 -1.0 vs today

Pace EP85.5 best 102.0

Pace LP73.8 best 55.2

Energy0.50

≠ Cross-surface α

Connections

JockYedsit Hazlewoodκ 0.24was John Velazquez · +0.0

TrnWesley Wardκ 0.59

J×T4 · 25% win · 75% ITM

Angles

Wesley Ward: off layoff (60d+) 24% -14% Wesley Ward: first-time turf 20% -14% 2nd career start 13% -28% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% First-time turf 10% -26% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	1st	Win%	Fig
Life	1	1	100%	94.2
2026	1	1	100%	94.2
2025	0	0	—	—
ELP	0	0	—	—
Turf	0	0	—	—
Sprint	1	1	100%	94.2
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-25 KEE 5 Furlongs 1:04.40 B 23 07-19 KEE 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 52 ◆Happy Away·88 04-19 KEE 3 Furlongs :35.40 B G 55

SIRECorniche 99 99%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-04-28	CD	4.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	88	1	6	0.0	F	102	98	55	94	89	88	1.44	John Velazquez

6 Arctic Wolf THIN DATA

2C 120 lbs

24.7%

MODEL %

3-1

MODEL FAIR

+8.0

EDGE vs ML

5/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig91 -2 vs par

Needs fits levelbase 94 vs par 93

Class90.9 -3.0 vs race -0.1 gap

MC23.7% fair 3-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.39

Faced85.9 -3.4 vs today

Connections

JockMartin Garciaκ 0.11was Ricardo Santana, Jr. · -0.6

TrnJack Sistersonκ 0.38was Philip Antonacci · -1.0

J×T5 · 0% win · 0% ITM

Angles

2nd career start 13% -28% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	1st	Win%	Fig
Life	1	1	100%	94.4
2026	1	1	100%	94.4
2025	0	0	—	—
ELP	0	0	—	—
Turf	1	1	100%	94.4
Sprint	1	1	100%	94.4
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-25 TTC 4 Furlongs :50.40 B 50 07-18 TTC 4 Furlongs :48.00 B 73 ★04-08 KEE 3 Furlongs :35.40 B G 63 ◆Pot'S Right 04-01 PMM 4 Furlongs :50.05 B 42 03-22 PMM 4 Furlongs :49.45 B G 63 ◆Pot'S Right 03-15 PMM 3 Furlongs :37.65 B 42 ◆Pot'S Right

SIREFrosted 84 83%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-18	BAQ	5.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	86	1	9	0.0		—	—	—	94	81	86	2.32	Ricardo Santana, Jr.

4 Admiral's Order THIN DATA

2C 120 lbs

20.1%

MODEL %

4-1

MODEL FAIR

+9.0

EDGE vs ML

8/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig86 -7 vs par

Needs +1~40% run that

Class92.6 -1.3 vs race -6.1 gap

MC11.4% fair 8-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.42

Faced87.6 -1.7 vs today

Pace EP80.8 best 83.3

Pace LP80.3 best 81.3

Energy0.51

≠ Cross-surface α

Connections

JockLuan Machadoκ 0.13

TrnBen Colebrookκ 0.36

J×T140 · 11% win · 37% ITM

Angles

2nd career start 13% -28% Luan Machado / Ben Colebrook 12% -8% First-time turf 10% -26% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26% Ben Colebrook: first-time turf 6% -73%

Record

	Sts	1st	Win%	Fig
Life	1	1	100%	92.4
2026	1	1	100%	92.4
2025	0	0	—	—
ELP	1	1	100%	92.4
Turf	0	0	—	—
Sprint	1	1	100%	92.4
Wet	1	1	100%	92.4

WORKS 07-26 KEE 4 Furlongs :51.20 B 29

SIREMidshipman 83 77%ile turf 13%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-11	ELP	5.5f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	MSW	88	1	8	0.0		83	87	81	92	91	88	5.26	Luan Machado

10 Hey Tuff Guy THIN DATA

2C 120 lbs E

4.2%

MODEL %

25-1

MODEL FAIR

-14.0

EDGE vs ML

9/2

M/L

Form

Proj Fig88 -5 vs par

Needs +1~40% run that

Class91.4 -2.5 vs race -3.2 gap

MC14.0% fair 6-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.44

Faced89.7 +0.4 vs today

Pace EP84.6 best 93.5

Pace LP82.6 best 86.5

Energy0.53

≠ Cross-surface α

Connections

JockMario Gutierrezκ 0.17

TrnBrian Lynchκ 0.58

J×T79 · 30% win · 54% ITM

Angles

Mario Gutierrez / Brian Lynch 30% +32% Brian Lynch: first-time turf 19% +7% First-time turf 10% -26% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26%

Record

	Sts	1st	Win%	Fig
Life	2	1	50%	96.0
2026	2	1	50%	96.0
2025	0	0	—	—
ELP	0	0	—	—
Turf	0	0	—	—
Sprint	2	1	50%	96.0
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-26 CD 5 Furlongs :59.40 B 90 ★07-19 CD 4 Furlongs :46.40 B 87 07-12 CD Four Furlongs 47.40 b 65 06-21 CD 5 Furlongs 1:00.80 B 62 06-13 CD 5 Furlongs 1:00.60 B 67 06-07 CD 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 54

SIRELife Is Good 99 99%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-28 34d	CD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	91	5	8	12.0	F	94	80	86	87	82	93	1.01	Mario Gutierrez
2026-05-25	CD	5.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	88	1	8	0.0		89	92	86	96	92	88	0.69	Mario Gutierrez

9 Sargent Bilko THIN DATA

2C 120 lbs C

2.4%

MODEL %

50-1

MODEL FAIR

-8.7

EDGE vs ML

8/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig87 -6 vs par

Needs +5~15% run that

Class90.9 -3.0 vs race -3.7 gap

MC10.0% fair 9-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.33

Faced89.0 -0.3 vs today

Pace EP85.2 best 94.0

Pace LP79.7 best 94.5

Energy0.50

≠ Cross-surface α

Connections

JockFrancisco Arrietaκ 0.25was Jose Ortiz · -0.0

TrnEddie Kenneallyκ 0.43

J×T13 · 15% win · 46% ITM

Angles

Eddie Kenneally: 2nd off layoff 15% -40% 2nd off layoff 13% -27% Eddie Kenneally: first-time turf 11% -43% First-time turf 10% -26% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26%

Record

	Sts	1st	Win%	Fig
Life	2	1	50%	88.7
2026	2	1	50%	88.7
2025	0	0	—	—
ELP	0	0	—	—
Turf	0	0	—	—
Sprint	2	1	50%	88.7
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-24 CD 4 Furlongs :50.40 B 39 ◆Danzig'S Dora·90 07-13 CD Four Furlongs 46.40 b 86 ◆Justifreak·97 04-22 KEE 3 Furlongs :35.60 B 50 04-16 KEE 4 Furlongs :47.40 B 65 04-09 KEE 4 Furlongs :47.40 B G 68

SIREArmy Mule 84 86%ile turf 16%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-28 64d	CD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	91	4	8	11.8	F	92	90	94	87	82	92	3.83	Jose Ortiz
2026-04-25	CD	4.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	87	1	7	0.0		94	81	64	89	84	87	1.01	Jose Ortiz

11 American Pope

2C 120 lbs S

2.2%

MODEL %

50-1

MODEL FAIR

-1.0

EDGE vs ML

30/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig82 -11 vs par

Needs +9~5% run that

Class87.7 -6.2 vs race -5.3 gap

MC2.8% fair 30-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.34

Faced86.0 -3.3 vs today

Pace EP91.8 best 106.0

Pace LP77.4 best 96.0

Energy0.53

≠ Cross-surface α

Connections

JockGerardo Corralesκ 0.19was Orlando Mojica, Jr. · +3.1

TrnPaul McEnteeκ -0.05

Angles

First-time turf 10% -26% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26% Paul McEntee: first-time turf 2% -94%

Record

	Sts	1st	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	5	1	1	20%	85.7
2026	5	1	1	20%	85.7
2025	0	0	0	—	—
ELP	0	0	0	—	—
Turf	0	0	0	—	—
Sprint	5	1	1	20%	85.7
Wet	1	0	1	0%	84.3

WORKS ★07-25 TP 4 Furlongs :48.60 B 68 03-28 KEE 4 Furlongs :49.40 B G 47 03-22 KEE 3 Furlongs :35.80 B 50 ◆Zee R One ★03-14 TP 3 Furlongs :36.00 B G 59 ◆Zee R One 03-07 TP 3 Furlongs :37.60 B 38

SIREAmerican Pharoah 86 93%ile turf 16%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-11 27d	PRM	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Stk	87	6	10	7.2		103	nan	86	86	84	88	17.6	Orlando Mojica, Jr.
2026-06-14 28d	WO	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	82	1	8	0.0	F	99	82	80	84	76	88	5.45	Emma-Jayne Wilson
2026-05-17 18d	WO	5.0f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	82	4	6	10.8	S	88	87	96	83	71	93	7.15	Joseph Bealmear
2026-04-29 13d	CD	5.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	Stk	91	3	3	1.8	S	98	83	54	84	68	87	7.3	Christopher Elliott
2026-04-16	KEE	4.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	87	5	8	7.8		106	70	64	79	63	87	23.68	Danny Sheehy

7 Mr Gerson

2C 120 lbs EP

1.3%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-1.9

EDGE vs ML

30/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig85 -8 vs par

Needs +17~<1% run that

Class84.1 -9.8 vs race +0.5 gap

MC6.5% fair 15-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.42

Faced86.7 -2.6 vs today

Pace EP89.0 best 113.9

Pace LP87.6 best 118.1

Energy0.54

Connections

JockRafael Bejaranoκ 0.27was Angel Serpa · +2.7

TrnDavid Jacobsonκ 0.32was Israel Acevedo · +3.4

J×T25 · 20% win · 52% ITM

Angles

Rafael Bejarano / David Jacobson 16% +2% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	1st	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	4	1	1	25%	82.5
2026	4	1	1	25%	82.5
2025	0	0	0	—	—
ELP	0	0	0	—	—
Turf	2	1	0	50%	82.5
Sprint	4	1	1	25%	82.5
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-29 CDT 3 Furlongs :39.00 B 33 07-25 CDT 3 Furlongs :39.80 B 26 07-21 CDT 3 Furlongs :39.20 B 36 07-07 TDD Four Furlongs 51.41 b 37 ◆Balam·83 ★03-16 TP 3 Furlongs :36.00 B G 56

SIREGolden Pal 92 98%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-13 9d	IND	5.0f	turf	Good	MSW	83	1	7	0.0	F	114	87	94	82	85	82	4.1	Angel Serpa
2026-06-04 14d	CD	5.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	88	10	11	16.5	F	86	92	118	73	68	83	57.79	Agustin Gomez
2026-05-21 35d·2.5×	CD	5.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	88	10	10	18.5	F	91	72	77	73	59	87	29.65	Agustin Gomez
2026-04-16	KEE	4.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	87	3	8	7.2		93	95	84	74	64	87	36.1	Andres Calleja

15 Issachar THIN DATA

2G 118 lbs

1.1%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-2.1

EDGE vs ML

30/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig82 -11 vs par

Needs +6~11% run that

Class89.3 -4.6 vs race -6.8 gap

MC1.5% fair 50-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.36

Faced84.3 -5.0 vs today

Pace EP83.4 best 93.5

Pace LP83.2 best 92.6

Energy0.50

≠ Cross-surface α

Connections

JockWilliam Antongeorgi IIIκ 0.06was Gerardo Corrales · -1.2

TrnThomas Vanceκ 0.18CLAIMEDwas Wesley Ward · -4.1

Angles

2nd career start 13% -28% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% Thomas Vance: first-time turf 11% +22% Thomas Vance: off layoff (60d+) 10% -11% First-time turf 10% -26% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	1st	Win%	Fig
Life	1	1	100%	87.1
2026	1	1	100%	87.1
2025	0	0	—	—
ELP	0	0	—	—
Turf	0	0	—	—
Sprint	1	1	100%	87.1
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-24 CD 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 51 07-09 Churchill Downs 4f:~ 47.6 nan 07-09 CD Four Furlongs 47.60 b 74 06-30 CD 4 Furlongs :47.00 B 79 06-20 CD 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 50 06-20 Churchill Downs 4f:~ 49.2 nan

SIREHootenanny 81 53%ile turf 8%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-05-17	CD	4.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	84	1	7	0.0	S	94	93	93	87	75	84	1.05	Gerardo Corrales

1 Tolstoy THIN DATA

2C 120 lbs EP

0.7%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-10.4

EDGE vs ML

8/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig82 -11 vs par

Needs +10~3% run that

Class88.3 -5.6 vs race -6.5 gap

MC3.6% fair 25-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.46

Faced89.2 -0.1 vs today

Pace EP84.7 best 97.4

Pace LP85.5 best 97.2

Energy0.53

Connections

JockBen Curtisκ 0.11was Flavien Prat · -1.8

TrnBrendan Walshκ 0.61

J×T122 · 18% win · 47% ITM

Angles

Brendan Walsh: 2nd off layoff 19% -9% Ben Curtis / Brendan Walsh 16% -21% 2nd off layoff 13% -27% Brendan Walsh: first-time turf 13% -23% First-time turf 10% -26% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26%

Record

	Sts	1st	Win%	Fig
Life	2	1	50%	82.8
2026	2	1	50%	82.8
2025	0	0	—	—
ELP	0	0	—	—
Turf	1	1	100%	82.8
Sprint	2	1	50%	82.8
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-22 TP 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 52 07-15 TP 5 Furlongs 1:01.60 B 72 07-09 TP Four Furlongs 50.40 b 39 06-17 CD 4 Furlongs :49.60 B 47 ◆Bet On Silver·87 06-11 CD 4 Furlongs :48.40 B 64 ◆Crossfire·89 04-13 PMM 4 Furlongs :47.85 B 52

SIREFrosted 84 83%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-28 66d	CD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	91	6	8	13.0	F	74	94	97	83	81	88	12.01	Flavien Prat
2026-04-23	KEE	5.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	87	1	9	0.0	F	89	89	88	83	68	86	12.18	Flavien Prat

13 Super Saiyajin

2C 118 lbs EP

0.3%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-2.9

EDGE vs ML

30/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig83 -10 vs par

Needs +11~<1% run that

Class87.2 -6.7 vs race -4.5 gap

MC2.7% fair 30-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.25

Faced88.2 -1.1 vs today

Pace EP85.6 best 109.9

Pace LP84.1 best 89.5

Energy0.53

≠ Cross-surface α

Connections

JockSantiago Gonzalezκ 0.16was Gerardo Corrales · -0.2

TrnSergio Donjuanκ -0.04

J×T11 · 18% win · 64% ITM

Angles

First-time turf 10% -26% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26% Sergio Donjuan: first-time turf 8% +36%

Record

	Sts	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	5	2	0%	86.5
2026	5	2	0%	86.5
2025	0	0	—	—
ELP	1	0	0%	82.1
Turf	0	0	—	—
Sprint	5	2	0%	86.5
Wet	3	1	0%	86.5

WORKS 07-19 BTP 5 Furlongs 1:00.78 B 78 ◆Fortune King·83 07-04 BTP 4 Furlongs :51.31 B 06-19 BTP 4 Furlongs :51.25 B ★03-25 TP 4 Furlongs :48.40 B G 62 03-14 TP 3 Furlongs :38.20 B 28 03-07 TP 3 Furlongs :37.60 B 39

SIREModernist 84 86%ile turf 6%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-11 37d	ELP	5.5f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	MSW	88	6	8	14.2		66	nan	90	82	72	90	5.41	Gerardo Corrales
2026-06-04 36d	CD	5.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	88	9	11	15.8	F	110	90	88	79	69	94	5.63	Gerardo Corrales
2026-04-29 13d	CD	5.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	Stk	91	2	3	1.8	S	83	94	85	86	68	91	5.56	Gerardo Corrales
2026-04-16 13d	KEE	4.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	87	2	8	0.1		87	90	87	84	75	90	14.25	Gerardo Corrales
2026-04-03	KEE	4.5f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	MSW	87	4	6	3.5	S	99	nan	83	86	81	87	24.46	Santiago Gonzalez

14 Red Sun THIN DATA

2G 118 lbs S

0.3%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-2.9

EDGE vs ML

30/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig83 -10 vs par

Needs +16~<1% run that

Class82.4 -11.5 vs race +0.6 gap

MC2.3% fair 50-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.43

Faced83.0 -6.3 vs today

Pace EP81.9 best 87.7

Pace LP77.5 best 96.0

Energy0.52

≠ Cross-surface α

Connections

JockWilliam Antongeorgi IIIκ 0.06

TrnHutch Holsappleκ 0.29

J×T7 · 29% win · 29% ITM

Angles

First-time turf 10% -26% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26%

Record

	Sts	1st	Win%	Fig
Life	2	1	50%	83.0
2026	2	1	50%	83.0
2025	0	0	—	—
ELP	0	0	—	—
Turf	0	0	—	—
Sprint	2	1	50%	83.0
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-08 TTC 4 Furlongs :50.20 B 43 ★06-17 TTC 4 Furlongs :47.00 B G 88 ◆Prevail 05-16 TTC 4 Furlongs :51.20 B 44 ◆Motown Sound·82 ★05-09 TTC 3 Furlongs :36.00 B G 53 05-02 TTC 3 Furlongs :38.40 B 34 04-24 TTC 3 Furlongs :36.60 B G 48

SIREFlameaway 82 64%ile turf 16%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-24 29d	CD	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	85	1	8	0.0		82	84	96	83	76	73	64.2	William Antongeorgi III
2026-05-26	IND	5.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	81	6	7	20.5	F	88	86	52	71	55	81	17.2	Alex Achard

8 Good to Be King THIN DATA

2C 120 lbs P

0.2%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-6.0

EDGE vs ML

15/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig86 -7 vs par

Needs +8~6% run that

Class92.5 -1.4 vs race -7.0 gap

MC7.1% fair 12-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.36

Faced88.3 -1.0 vs today

Connections

JockAxel Concepcionκ 0.14was Brian Hernandez, Jr. · +0.2

TrnGeorge Arnold IIκ 0.55

J×T43 · 16% win · 44% ITM

Angles

Axel Concepcion / George Arnold II 16% +40% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	Win%	Fig
Life	1	0%	84.7
2026	1	0%	84.7
2025	0	—	—
ELP	0	—	—
Turf	1	0%	84.7
Sprint	1	0%	84.7
Wet	0	—	—

WORKS 07-12 KEE Four Furlongs 48.80 b 60 07-04 Keeneland Race Course 4f:~ 48.2 nan 04-30 KEE 4 Furlongs :50.40 B 35 04-22 KEE 3 Furlongs :38.00 B 36 ◆Conroy 04-15 KEE 3 Furlongs :38.40 B 35 ◆Conroy

SIREWar Front 87 95%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-18	CD	5.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	88	4	10	5.0		—	—	—	85	77	88	17.09	Brian Hernandez, Jr.

3 Crack On THIN DATA

2F 117 lbs C

0.2%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-4.6

EDGE vs ML

20/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig87 -6 vs par

Needs +9~5% run that

Class92.3 -1.6 vs race -5.0 gap

MC4.5% fair 20-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.31

Faced87.9 -1.4 vs today

Pace EP80.6 best 83.0

Pace LP87.4 best 106.3

Energy0.50

Connections

JockDanny Sheehyκ 0.12

TrnJimmy Corriganκ 0.16

J×T14 · 14% win · 43% ITM

Angles

Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	1st	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	2	1	1	50%	84.3
2026	2	1	1	50%	84.3
2025	0	0	0	—	—
ELP	1	1	0	100%	83.4
Turf	2	1	1	50%	84.3
Sprint	2	1	1	50%	84.3
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-24 TTC 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 65 07-04 TTC 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 48 06-09 TTC 4 Furlongs :47.40 B G 76 06-02 TTC 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 61 05-26 TTC 4 Furlongs :50.20 B G 51 05-19 TTC 4 Furlongs :50.20 B G 55

SIREMaximus Mischief 84 84%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-10 21d	ELP	5.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	88	1	12	0.0	F	80	91	106	83	76	92	8.4	Danny Sheehy
2026-06-19	CD	5.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	88	3	8	2.5	S	83	nan	90	84	75	88	53.13	Danny Sheehy

2 Fortune King

2C 120 lbs EP

0.2%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-3.0

EDGE vs ML

30/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig76 -17 vs par

Needs +14~1% run that

Class82.2 -11.7 vs race -5.9 gap

MC0.8% fair 99-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.4

Faced84.0 -5.3 vs today

Pace EP78.9 best 89.6

Pace LP81.8 best 102.4

Energy0.53

Connections

JockSantiago Gonzalezκ 0.16was Orlando Mojica, Jr. · +2.8

TrnSergio Donjuanκ -0.04

J×T11 · 18% win · 64% ITM

Angles

First-time turf 10% -26% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26% Sergio Donjuan: first-time turf 8% +36%

Record

	Sts	1st	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	4	1	1	25%	82.7
2026	4	1	1	25%	82.7
2025	0	0	0	—	—
ELP	0	0	0	—	—
Turf	1	0	1	0%	74.4
Sprint	4	1	1	25%	82.7
Wet	1	1	0	100%	79.4

WORKS 07-19 BTP 5 Furlongs 1:00.78 B 78 ◆Super Saiyajin·86 06-06 BTP 4 Furlongs :48.22 B 04-28 BTP 4 Furlongs :48.31 B ★03-25 TP 4 Furlongs :48.40 B G 62 03-14 TP 3 Furlongs :38.20 B 28 03-07 TP 3 Furlongs :37.60 B 39

SIRECatalina Cruiser 82 71%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-27 14d	BTP	5.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	MSW	77	1	7	0.0	S	81	nan	90	79	72	83	0.9	Orlando Mojica, Jr.
2026-06-13 19d	IND	5.0f	turf	Good	MSW	83	3	7	7.2	F	90	79	48	74	74	83	3.8	Alexander Crispin
2026-05-25 11d	CD	5.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	88	5	8	12.2		71	96	102	83	75	81	54.99	Gerardo Corrales
2026-05-14	CD	5.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	88	7	9	16.5	S	71	92	91	78	61	88	64.64	Danny Sheehy

5 Colucci THIN DATA

2C 120 lbs

0.1%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-3.1

EDGE vs ML

30/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig79 -14 vs par

Needs +14~1% run that

Class84.9 -9.0 vs race -5.7 gap

MC1.7% fair 50-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.43

Faced80.0 -9.3 vs today

Pace EP80.5 best 81.9

Pace LP76.6 best 66.3

Energy0.50

≠ Cross-surface α

Connections

JockYuri Yarangaκ 0.07

TrnGregory Viandsκ -0.23

J×T3 · 33% win · 67% ITM

Angles

2nd career start 13% -28% First-time turf 10% -26% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30% Gregory Viands: first-time turf 3% -84%

Record

	Sts	1st	Win%	Fig
Life	1	1	100%	79.2
2026	1	1	100%	79.2
2025	0	0	—	—
ELP	0	0	—	—
Turf	0	0	—	—
Sprint	1	1	100%	79.2
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS ★07-25 MNR 4 Furlongs :48.40 B 74 07-08 MNR 4 Furlongs :51.00 B 43 06-14 MNR 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 67 06-08 MNR 4 Furlongs :50.60 B 46 05-30 MNR 3 Furlongs :36.60 B G 45

SIRECorniche 99 99%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-17	PID	4.5f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	80	1	6	0.0	S	82	75	66	79	76	80	8.3	Yuri Yaranga