TRACKS · 2026-08-01 ALL CARDS ↗
▸ How to read a horse block
MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σα. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.
R1 D R2 D R3 T R4 D R5 T R6 D R7 T R8 D R9 T R10 T
R7 ALLOWANCE
ELP 2026-08-01 One Mile TURF
90
strength
+0.0 fair
97
win par
fig to beat
SPEED DUEL (3+)
shape
closers favored
FAST
early pace
1st¼ 23.2s / par 23.7
TOP-HEAVY
field
figs 75.5–90.5
Purse $102,000. One Mile. (Turf) (Includes $50,500 – KTDF - Kentucky TB Devt Fund). For Three Year Olds And Upward Which Have Never Won A Race Other Than Maiden, Claiming, Or Starter Or Which Have Never Won Two Races. Three Year Olds, 120 Lbs.; Older, 125 Lbs. Non-winners Of A Race At A Mile Or Over On The Turf Since July 1 Allowed 2 Lbs. (Races Where Entered For $30,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances). (If deemed inadvisable by management to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the main track at One mile.).
TODAY'S CONTENDERS WIN% · FAIR / ML QIK% STY P1C CLASS PROJ COND LAST SUS J×T
1 Lucky Mischief 2% 50-1 / 6/1 6.6% S 15th/1w 89 -1.7 893-8 902 896 845 13%
2 Awesome Connection 17% 9-2 / 20/1 8.9% P 11th/1w 91 +0.8 884-9 902 913 901 L1D→T 15% ⚠-2.8LS7∠
3 Coalmoon 3% 30-1 / 10/1 4.7% C 16th/1w 91 +1.0 878-10 894 889 845 L1D→T 20% 6∠
4 Unitas 20% 4-1 / 8/1 12.2% E 1st/1w 90 -0.2 884-9 887 889 7911 25% ⚠-2.2
5 Non Conforming 17% 5-1 / 12/1 9.7% E 2nd/1w 91 +0.4 884-9 922 8010 ★goldJ-0.7D→T 3∠
6 Clear the Beach 8% 12-1 / 9/2 10.4% EP 8th/1w 90 -0.5 884-9 8710 913 7911 L1J+0.5S→T▲cls 22% 5∠
7 Sheriff Bart 1% 50-1 / 4/1 8.4% P 12th/1w 90 +0.2 901-7 911 7816 7613 D→Tspr→rte 20% 4∠
8 Fuzzbuster 3% 30-1 / 5/1 7.8% P 13th/1w 92 +1.7 8511-12 1001 862 L3★goldT-5.0D→T ⚠-3.24∠
9 Show of Force 10% 8-1 / 12/1 7.2% EP 6th/2w 91 +0.4 8511-12 894 913 L3★goldD→Tspr→rte 11% ⚠-1.25∠
10 Rocky Joy 3% 30-1 / 12/1 4.3% EP 10th/3w 92 +1.7 8511-12 887 889 7114 0%
11 Ring Curl 3% 30-1 / 30/1 2.5% EP 4th/3w 86 -3.9 8414-13 8513 854 L2D→Tspr→rte 16% 4∠
12 Makutu 4% 20-1 / 15/1 4.2% EP 5th/3w 88 -2.7 8315-14 8511 896 6015 L3★goldD→T 14% ⚠-1.05∠
13 Sketch 2% 50-1 / 8/1 5.1% P 14th/2w 92 +1.2 901-7 8214 845 L2J+0.8spr→rte 3∠
14 Todo Men 2% 50-1 / 15/1 3.3% P 9th/3w 85 -5.3 878-10 887 889 828 ▲cls 17% 2∠
15 Equilibrium 3% 30-1 / 15/1 3.8% EP 7th/4w 90 -0.3 878-10 894 896 828 J-1.5 ⚠-1.4
16 Malevaje 0% 99-1 / 50/1 1.0% EP 3rd/4w 76 -13.9 7616-21 8212 8015 862 L3★goldD→T▲cls 8% ⚠-1.03∠
Pace Projector SPEED DUEL (3+) closers favored 1st¼ 23.2s par 23.7 EP/LP
ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 4 VULN 106/94 Unitas 5 95/117 Non Conforming 16 »»» 99/101 Malevaje 11 »» 99/113 Ring Curl 12 »» 96/109 Makutu 9 » 83/111 Show of Force 15 »»» 103/74 Equilibrium 6 91/89 Clear the Beach 14 »» 92/109 Todo Men 10 »» 91/103 Rocky Joy 2 89/107 Awesome Connection 7 107/107 Sheriff Bart 8 99/108 Fuzzbuster 13 » 95/100 Sketch 1 C★ 107/124 Lucky Mischief 3 96/99 Coalmoon
On the lead: 4, 5, 16, 11, 12 · race sets up for closers
4 Unitas
4G 123 lbs L E
19.5%
MODEL %
4-1
MODEL FAIR
+8.4
EDGE vs ML
8/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig88 -9 vs par
Needs +10~3% run that
Class90.1 -0.2 vs race -2.6 gap
MC8.8% fair 10-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.27
Faced88.3 -2.0 vs today
Pace EP89.6 best 105.7
Pace LP83.4 best 94.4
Energy0.53
Connections
JockDanny Sheehyκ 0.12
TrnPeter Eurtonκ 0.57
J×T12 · 25% win · 42% ITM
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 410025%89.0
2026 410025%89.0
2025 0000
ELP 0000
Turf 310033%89.0
Route 10000%88.1
Wet 0000
WORKS 07-21 ELP 5 Furlongs 1:00.60 B 80 07-14 ELP 5 Furlongs 1:00.00 B 83 07-06 ELP 5 Furlongs 1:01.40 B 63 06-29 CD 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 51 06-21 CD 4 Furlongs :48.60 B 56 05-30 CD 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 50
SIRESpeightstown 86 94%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-06 50d CD 8.5f turf Firm Alw 89 5 7 4.0 F 92 87 66 88 100 88 10.0 Danny Sheehy
2026-04-17 47d KEE 5.5f turf Firm Alw 90 6 8 7.0 F 96 93 90 85 82 86 2.17 Flavien Prat
2026-03-01 36d FG 5.5f turf Firm MSW 87 1 6 0.0 F 106 84 94 89 95 83 1.2 Ben Curtis
2026-01-24 FG 6.0f dirt Fast MSW 86 5 6 8.8 F 94 91 94 88 85 84 2.2 Marcelino Pedroza, Jr.
2 Awesome Connection LONGSHOT
3G 118 lbs L P
17.4%
MODEL %
9-2
MODEL FAIR
+12.6
EDGE vs ML
20/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig88 -9 vs par
Needs +8~6% run that
Class91.1 +0.8 vs race -2.7 gap
MC4.4% fair 20-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.24
Faced87.2 -3.1 vs today
Pace EP81.8 best 88.9
Pace LP88.9 best 107.4
Energy0.52
Connections
JockLuan Machadoκ 0.13was Luis Saez · -0.4
TrnChristopher Davisκ 0.34
J×T20 · 15% win · 45% ITM
Angles
Christopher Davis: first-time turf 14% +20% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% First-time Lasix 12% -25% Christopher Davis: off layoff (60d+) 12% -34% Christopher Davis: first-time Lasix 10% -32% First-time turf 10% -26%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 511120%91.4
2026 0000
2025 511120%91.4
ELP 0000
Turf 311033%89.5
Route 30100%91.4
Wet 0000
WORKS 07-25 TP 5 Furlongs 1:01.00 B 86 ◆Hovland·94 07-18 TP 5 Furlongs 1:02.00 B 69 07-10 Turfway Park 4f:~ 48.2 nan 07-10 TP Four Furlongs 48.20 bg 70 05-19 TTC 3 Furlongs :38.40 B 40 ◆Knick The Quick·88 05-09 TTC 3 Furlongs :38.00 B 34
SIREConnect 83 77%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2025-10-26 21d CD 8.0f dirt Fast AOC 92 4 7 11.8 87 93 94 91 92 92 8.27 Luis Saez
2025-10-05 28d KEE 8.5f turf Firm G2 90 6 12 3.2 F 78 70 94 87 88 88 18.44 Jose Ortiz
2025-09-07 42d KD 8.0f turf Firm Stk 90 2 9 7.0 F 74 89 107 90 88 85 10.99 Jose Ortiz
2025-07-27 35d WO 6.0f turf Good MSW 82 1 7 0.0 S 89 93 102 85 85 82 17.45 Jose Campos
2025-06-22 WO 5.5f synthetic Fast MSW 82 3 7 7.8 87 81 74 84 80 82 6.25 Jose Campos
5 Non Conforming
3C 118 lbs L E
16.7%
MODEL %
5-1
MODEL FAIR
+9.0
EDGE vs ML
12/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig88 -9 vs par
Needs +4~14% run that
Class90.7 +0.4 vs race -2.4 gap
MC6.6% fair 15-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.26
Faced88.1 -2.2 vs today
Pace EP73.7 best 94.5
Pace LP92.8 best 117.3
Energy0.55
≠ Cross-surface α
Connections
JockV R Carrascoκ 0.1was Luis Saez · -0.7
TrnBrian Lynchκ 0.58
Angles
Brian Lynch: first-time turf 19% +7% First-time turf 10% -26% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 621233%94.6
2026 420150%94.6
2025 20110%90.7
ELP 0000
Turf 0000
Route 210150%94.6
Wet 20110%92.3
WORKS 11-16 Churchill Downs 3f:~ 36.8 nan 09-27 Churchill Downs 4f:~ 51.6 nan 09-13 Churchill Downs 4f:~ 49.2 nan 07-26 CD 5 Furlongs 1:01.40 B 54 07-19 CD 4 Furlongs :51.40 B 28 07-12 Churchill Downs 4f:~ 49.4 nan
SIREUnified 82 67%ile turf 11%
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-27 35d CD 8.5f dirt Sloppy (Sealed) AOC 91 3 7 6.8 63 82 97 92 93 90 10.86 Luis Saez
2026-05-23 34d CD 8.0f dirt Fast Str Alw 89 1 7 0.0 F 64 91 108 95 103 87 0.95 Luis Saez
2026-04-19 71d KEE 7.0f dirt Fast MSW 87 1 12 0.0 F 94 93 97 94 107 84 11.21 Luis Saez
2026-02-07 80d·2.1× GP 7.0f dirt Fast MSW 87 10 10 59.2 81 85 83 70 42 88 16.5 Mario Gutierrez
2025-11-19 39d CD 6.0f dirt Muddy (Sealed) MSW 87 2 10 2.5 S 46 76 117 90 76 85 4.35 Mario Gutierrez
2025-10-11 KEE 6.5f dirt Fast MSW 87 3 11 9.8 F 90 nan 84 91 85 87 9.32 Nik Juarez
9 Show of Force
4G 123 lbs L EP
10.5%
MODEL %
8-1
MODEL FAIR
+2.8
EDGE vs ML
12/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig85 -12 vs par
Needs +5~10% run that
Class90.7 +0.4 vs race -5.7 gap
MC2.9% fair 30-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.23
Faced89.3 -1.0 vs today
Pace EP79.6 best 82.6
Pace LP87.7 best 111.2
Energy0.54
Connections
JockEdgar Moralesκ 0.15
TrnGenaro Garciaκ 0.18
J×T90 · 11% win · 43% ITM
Angles
3rd off layoff 14% -22% Edgar Morales / Genaro Garcia 12% -31% First-time turf 10% -26% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26% Genaro Garcia: first-time turf 9% -48%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 1622212%97.5
2026 410225%97.5
2025 80200%91.8
ELP 20200%88.9
Turf 612017%88.9
Route 1222017%97.5
Wet 0000
WORKS 07-19 CD 4 Furlongs :47.00 B 80 06-14 CD 5 Furlongs 1:03.00 B 30 05-31 CD 5 Furlongs 1:01.60 B 48 04-26 CD 5 Furlongs 1:01.20 B 53 04-19 CD 5 Furlongs 1:01.80 B 50 04-12 CD 5 Furlongs 1:03.00 B 19
SIREOmaha Beach 86 94%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-21 42d CD 7.0f dirt Fast Alw 92 3 7 8.5 F nan nan 87 91 97 91 15.3 Edgar Morales
2026-05-10 94d·3.4× CD 8.0f dirt Fast Clm 88 1 7 0.0 F 81 87 100 98 104 90 7.31 Edgar Morales
2026-02-05 28d TP 6.0f synthetic Fast AOC 89 5 7 6.0 80 84 83 86 81 89 3.3 Dylan Machado
2026-01-08 19d TP 6.0f synthetic Fast Alw 88 3 12 7.8 F 83 82 81 86 88 89 10.03 Dylan Machado
2025-12-20 20d TP 8.0f synthetic Fast Alw 89 6 9 7.2 74 104 111 86 96 89 18.01 Carlos Barbosa
2025-11-30 28d CD 8.0f dirt Fast Alw 90 8 11 28.5 F 87 78 46 85 75 91 45.12 Axel Concepcion
2025-11-02 35d CD 9.0f turf Firm Alw 91 11 12 13.2 79 nan 83 82 82 93 53.66 Axel Concepcion
2025-09-28 37d CD 8.5f turf Firm Alw 88 4 9 3.0 102 nan 76 84 86 92 5.52 Edgar Morales
2025-08-22 27d ELP 8.0f turf Firm Alw 89 2 6 0.5 91 78 88 89 93 91 2.91 Edgar Morales
2025-07-26 ELP 8.0f turf Firm Alw 88 2 12 0.1 F 88 nan 79 88 95 90 8.62 Edgar Morales
6 Clear the Beach THIN DATA
4G 123 lbs L EP
8.1%
MODEL %
12-1
MODEL FAIR
-10.1
EDGE vs ML
9/2
M/L
Form
Proj Fig88 -9 vs par
Needs +8~6% run that
Class89.8 -0.5 vs race -1.4 gap
MC8.0% fair 12-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.25
Faced84.9 -5.4 vs today
Pace EP84.1 best 90.9
Pace LP78.1 best 88.9
Energy0.50
Connections
JockAxel Concepcionκ 0.14was Adam Beschizza · +0.5
TrnKelsey Dannerκ 0.37
J×T50 · 22% win · 46% ITM
Angles
Axel Concepcion / Kelsey Danner 22% +54% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% Kelsey Danner: off layoff (60d+) 12% +16% Kelsey Danner: first-time turf 11% +12% First-time turf 10% -26%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 311033%90.9
2026 0000
2025 311033%90.9
ELP 0000
Turf 20100%88.6
Route 210050%90.9
Wet 0000
WORKS 07-20 CD 5 Furlongs 1:00.40 B 75 07-14 CD Four Furlongs 48.40 b 57 07-06 CD Four Furlongs 48.80 b 56 06-28 CD 4 Furlongs :48.20 B 70 06-12 CD 4 Furlongs :49.60 B 46 06-03 CD 4 Furlongs :50.40 B 32
SIREOmaha Beach 86 94%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2025-12-18 57d TP 8.5f synthetic Fast MSW 85 1 11 0.0 F 90 77 69 91 95 89 1.98 Adam Beschizza
2025-10-22 53d KEE 8.0f turf Good MSW 86 4 12 1.8 84 94 71 87 79 86 3.81 Adam Beschizza
2025-08-30 KD 6.0f turf Firm MSW 83 2 12 2.2 S 91 80 89 89 89 82 5.39 Adam Beschizza
12 Makutu
4G 123 lbs L EP
4.4%
MODEL %
20-1
MODEL FAIR
-1.8
EDGE vs ML
15/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig83 -14 vs par
Needs +9~2% run that
Class87.6 -2.7 vs race -4.4 gap
MC1.4% fair 50-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.24
Faced84.8 -5.5 vs today
Pace EP80.7 best 96.4
Pace LP82.8 best 109.4
Energy0.52
Connections
JockAbel Cedilloκ 0.09
TrnLindsay Schultzκ 0.41
J×T56 · 14% win · 36% ITM
Angles
3rd off layoff 14% -22% Lindsay Schultz: first-time turf 14% +47% Abel Cedillo / Lindsay Schultz 13% -7% First-time turf 10% -26% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 612017%92.9
2026 20100%92.9
2025 411025%84.6
ELP 0000
Turf 411025%84.6
Route 512020%92.9
Wet 20100%92.9
WORKS 07-21 CD 4 Furlongs :48.40 B 61 07-14 CD Four Furlongs 48.40 b 57 04-27 KEE 4 Furlongs :51.20 B 34 ◆Stella Daniella 04-21 KEE 4 Furlongs :50.40 B 40 ◆Obelus·94 04-11 KEE 4 Furlongs :50.40 B 42 04-04 KEE 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 47
SIREMendelssohn 83 80%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-26 35d CD 8.5f dirt Sloppy (Sealed) Str Alw 89 8 11 6.2 83 45 37 89 90 86 15.44 Abel Cedillo
2026-05-22 263d·4.9× CD 8.0f dirt Sloppy (Sealed) Str Alw 86 2 7 5.0 88 93 109 93 100 83 13.55 Abel Cedillo
2025-09-01 24d DMR 8.0f turf Firm Mdn Clm 82 1 10 0.0 96 97 96 83 80 80 8.3 Diego Herrera
2025-08-08 54d DMR 8.0f turf Firm Mdn Clm 81 2 10 3.2 F 72 nan 89 85 85 77 30.8 Diego Herrera
2025-06-15 57d SA 8.0f turf Firm MSW 86 7 9 15.8 66 78 91 80 75 75 88.0 Assael Espinoza
2025-04-19 SA 6.5f turf Firm Mdn Clm 82 7 8 14.5 S 94 92 81 82 62 81 16.7 Assael Espinoza
15 Equilibrium
4G 123 lbs L EP
3.3%
MODEL %
30-1
MODEL FAIR
-3.0
EDGE vs ML
15/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig87 -10 vs par
Needs +8~6% run that
Class90.0 -0.3 vs race -2.6 gap
MC6.7% fair 15-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.33
Faced84.6 -5.7 vs today
Pace EP85.9 best 102.5
Pace LP75.1 best 73.6
Energy0.51
Connections
JockV R Carrascoκ 0.1was Francisco Arrieta · -1.5
TrnIan Wilkesκ 0.47
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 210050%89.5
2026 210050%89.5
2025 0000
ELP 0000
Turf 10000%88.9
Route 10000%88.9
Wet 0000
WORKS 07-19 SKY Four Furlongs 48.89 b 63 07-12 SKY Four Furlongs 50.31 b 49 05-16 CD 4 Furlongs :48.20 B 64 05-09 CD 5 Furlongs 1:02.20 B 38 05-02 CD 4 Furlongs :50.40 B 40 04-25 CD 4 Furlongs :47.80 B G 60
SIREOmaha Beach 86 94%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-20 28d CD 8.0f turf Firm Clm 89 5 12 4.2 102 84 62 89 93 88 9.57 Francisco Arrieta
2026-05-23 CD 6.0f dirt Good Mdn Clm 81 1 10 0.0 F 87 nan 74 90 88 83 10.96 Victor Carrasco
11 Ring Curl
3C 118 lbs L EP
3.2%
MODEL %
30-1
MODEL FAIR
-0.0
EDGE vs ML
30/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig84 -13 vs par
Needs +10~1% run that
Class86.4 -3.9 vs race -2.1 gap
MC1.9% fair 50-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.31
Faced87.1 -3.2 vs today
Pace EP84.5 best 98.6
Pace LP86.6 best 112.9
Energy0.55
≠ Cross-surface α
Connections
JockWilliam Antongeorgi IIIκ 0.06
TrnTroy Wismerκ 0.32
J×T25 · 16% win · 36% ITM
Angles
William Antongeorgi III / Troy Wismer 15% +192% 2nd off layoff 13% -27% First-time turf 10% -26% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 710014%90.5
2026 410025%90.5
2025 30000%87.4
ELP 10000%85.2
Turf 0000
Route 30000%87.4
Wet 10000%85.2
SIRECurlin 87 96%ile turf 14%
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-06 65d ELP 7.0f dirt Wet Fast Alw 90 6 9 10.8 F 82 92 88 85 88 86 39.44 William Antongeorgi III
2026-05-02 22d CD 6.5f dirt Fast AOC 91 6 10 13.2 F 80 nan 85 85 89 85 30.66 William Antongeorgi III
2026-04-10 98d KEE 6.0f dirt Fast MSW 85 1 8 0.0 90 83 91 90 91 82 45.5 William Antongeorgi III
2026-01-02 28d OP 8.0f dirt Fast MSW 85 9 11 24.0 F 99 88 76 80 66 83 24.6 Ricardo Santana, Jr.
2025-12-05 28d TP 8.0f synthetic Fast MSW 85 9 11 12.8 F 86 90 113 80 84 84 8.25 Joseph Ramos
2025-11-07 56d CD 8.5f dirt Fast MSW 84 6 11 9.5 F 78 86 86 87 84 80 114.91 Francisco Arrieta
2025-09-12 CD 6.0f dirt Fast MSW 88 12 12 18.5 F 94 86 90 83 72 88 28.65 Lanfranco Dettori
10 Rocky Joy
6H 123 lbs L EP
3.1%
MODEL %
30-1
MODEL FAIR
-4.6
EDGE vs ML
12/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig85 -12 vs par
Needs +10~1% run that
Class92.0 +1.7 vs race -7.2 gap
MC2.3% fair 50-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.27
Faced89.4 -0.9 vs today
Pace EP79.4 best 90.9
Pace LP85.4 best 102.5
Energy0.51
Connections
JockGabriel Saezκ 0.07
TrnJose Aranhaκ 0.21
J×T9 · 0% win · 33% ITM
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 221835%92.3
2026 50000%88.8
2025 80220%90.4
ELP 30110%92.2
Turf 161536%92.2
Route 151527%92.2
Wet 0000
WORKS 07-25 KEE 4 Furlongs :47.80 B 67 06-24 Keeneland Race Course 4f:~ 46.6 nan 04-29 KEE 5 Furlongs 1:02.40 B 53 04-04 KEE 4 Furlongs :48.20 B 64 03-28 KEE 4 Furlongs :47.40 B 73 03-28 Keeneland Race Course 4f:~ 47.4 nan
SIREKitten'S Joy 83 80%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-06 38d ELP 8.5f turf Firm Alw 89 4 9 3.0 66 73 77 88 95 92 6.26 Gabriel Saez
2026-05-29 20d CD 8.5f turf Firm Clm 89 4 8 0.8 F 91 82 83 87 95 91 26.84 Gabriel Saez
2026-05-09 28d CD 8.0f turf Firm Alw 90 9 11 11.0 F 68 92 102 85 94 92 39.08 Gabriel Saez
2026-04-11 100d·2.6× KEE 8.0f turf Firm Alw 89 6 8 4.5 F 83 88 87 87 89 92 9.94 Luan Machado
2026-01-01 39d TP 8.0f synthetic Fast AOC 91 11 12 11.2 S 87 84 94 89 88 93 13.73 Alberto Burgos
2025-11-23 50d CD 8.5f turf Firm Alw 90 6 12 4.0 F 83 84 86 86 93 93 9.43 Luan Machado
2025-10-04 24d KEE 8.5f turf Firm Alw 90 3 11 0.8 F 82 80 83 88 99 92 14.92 Luan Machado
2025-09-10 69d KD 6.5f turf Firm Alw 90 4 12 3.2 F 89 88 92 90 96 92 10.03 Luan Machado
2025-07-03 32d ELP 8.5f turf Firm Alw 89 3 10 6.8 F 86 nan 97 89 96 92 5.31 Luan Machado
2025-06-01 CD 8.0f turf Firm Alw 89 5 12 3.5 S 92 nan 83 85 83 92 3.87 Luan Machado
8 Fuzzbuster
3C 118 lbs L P
3.0%
MODEL %
30-1
MODEL FAIR
-13.7
EDGE vs ML
5/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig85 -12 vs par
Needs +1~40% run that
Class92.0 +1.7 vs race -7.2 gap
MC2.8% fair 30-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.39
Faced88.4 -1.9 vs today
Pace EP84.6 best 99.4
Pace LP86.2 best 107.7
Energy0.52
Connections
JockMario Gutierrezκ 0.17
TrnV H Oliverκ 0.0was Victoria Oliver · -5.0
Angles
3yo, 3rd off layoff 15% -21% 3rd off layoff 14% -22% First-time turf 10% -26% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 612317%100.0
2026 211050%100.0
2025 40130%97.9
ELP 10010%93.3
Turf 10100%91.0
Route 210150%100.0
Wet 210150%100.0
WORKS 11-04 Keeneland Race Course 4f:~ 47.6 nan 10-11 Keeneland Race Course 4f:~ 49.2 nan 07-24 KEE 4 Furlongs :47.80 B 68 07-18 KEE 4 Furlongs :47.60 B 71 07-10 Keeneland Race Course 4f:~ 49 nan 07-10 KEE Four Furlongs 49.00 b 56 ◆Tickin Time Blonde·93
SIRETiz The Law 86 94%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-25 20d CD 8.0f dirt Sloppy (Sealed) MSW 90 1 8 0.0 F 77 86 95 100 106 92 1.78 Mario Gutierrez
2026-06-05 197d·5.8× CD 5.5f turf Firm MSW 87 2 10 2.0 F 91 102 91 1.88 Mario Gutierrez
2025-11-20 35d CD 8.0f dirt Muddy (Sealed) MSW 88 3 11 2.0 F 95 83 81 98 95 91 4.21 Cristian Torres
2025-10-16 34d KEE 7.0f dirt Fast MSW 88 3 8 3.0 F 73 84 108 98 103 90 4.78 Luis Saez
2025-09-12 21d CD 6.0f dirt Fast MSW 88 2 12 2.8 S 93 77 76 91 81 88 4.33 Declan Cannon
2025-08-22 ELP 6.0f dirt Fast MSW 88 3 11 6.2 99 78 91 93 86 88 10.27 Declan Cannon
3 Coalmoon
4G 123 lbs L C
2.7%
MODEL %
30-1
MODEL FAIR
-6.4
EDGE vs ML
10/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig87 -10 vs par
Needs +5~10% run that
Class91.3 +1.0 vs race -4.3 gap
MC6.3% fair 15-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.28
Faced89.6 -0.7 vs today
Pace EP83.7 best 96.3
Pace LP79.8 best 98.7
Energy0.51
Connections
JockAlberto Burgosκ 0.12was Luan Machado · -0.1
TrnPaulo Loboκ 0.64
J×T55 · 20% win · 49% ITM
Angles
Alberto Burgos / Paulo Lobo 22% +58% Paulo Lobo: off layoff (60d+) 18% +2% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% Paulo Lobo: first-time turf 10% -14% First-time turf 10% -26% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 1826211%103.6
2026 40200%94.8
2025 923122%103.6
ELP 20000%86.7
Turf 40010%88.9
Route 161626%97.6
Wet 0000
WORKS 07-23 TTC 4 Furlongs :49.80 B 52 07-14 TTC 4 Furlongs :51.00 B 39 06-30 TTC 4 Furlongs :51.00 B 40 05-07 TTC 4 Furlongs :49.60 B 55 04-08 TTC 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 51
SIRECoal Front 85 88%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-05-14 29d CD 9.0f dirt Fast Alw 89 7 7 18.5 F 85 nan 84 88 85 94 1.83 Luan Machado
2026-04-15 25d KEE 8.5f dirt Fast Alw 90 2 6 4.8 F 90 89 74 95 99 94 8.93 Luan Machado
2026-03-21 23d TP 8.0f synthetic Fast AOC 90 4 10 4.5 96 85 73 94 99 94 2.01 Joel Rosario
2026-02-26 68d TP 8.0f synthetic Fast AOC 90 2 11 3.0 S 88 94 69 93 90 94 1.51 Luan Machado
2025-12-20 37d TP 8.0f synthetic Fast Alw 89 2 9 0.1 70 nan 99 93 103 93 4.72 Luan Machado
2025-11-13 49d CD 7.5f dirt Fast Alw 90 4 11 3.8 F 83 83 95 104 115 93 7.6 Luan Machado
2025-09-25 54d CD 8.5f dirt Fast Alw 90 3 9 1.2 F 94 86 83 97 102 93 12.75 Luan Machado
2025-08-02 41d ELP 9.0f turf Firm Stk 92 5 8 4.8 S 95 96 113 87 86 92 24.34 Joseph Ramos
2025-06-22 27d CD 7.5f dirt Fast Str Alw 89 1 6 0.0 F 77 95 97 102 116 90 0.92 Luan Machado
2025-05-26 CD 8.0f dirt Fast Str Alw 87 2 11 1.5 F 85 91 106 98 95 89 7.89 Luan Machado
1 Lucky Mischief
4C 123 lbs L S
2.3%
MODEL %
50-1
MODEL FAIR
-12.0
EDGE vs ML
6/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig89 -8 vs par
Needs +8~2% run that
Class88.6 -1.7 vs race +0.3 gap
MC11.5% fair 8-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.24
Faced87.8 -2.5 vs today
Pace EP80.0 best 107.4
Pace LP85.6 best 124.0
Energy0.52
Connections
JockRafael Bejaranoκ 0.27
TrnRick Hilesκ 0.38
J×T15 · 13% win · 33% ITM
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 1521313%91.1
2026 510220%91.1
2025 40010%90.0
ELP 30010%88.6
Turf 1021220%90.0
Route 1421314%91.1
Wet 30010%90.3
WORKS 07-22 CD 4 Furlongs :46.40 B 81 05-11 CD 4 Furlongs :46.40 B 86 04-10 OP 5 Furlongs 1:02.00 B 57 03-27 OP 4 Furlongs :48.40 B 69
SIREYoshida (Jpn) 84 84%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-06 26d ELP 8.5f turf Firm Alw 89 3 9 3.0 85 92 83 89 95 87 2.48 Rafael Bejarano
2026-06-10 19d CD 8.5f turf Firm Clm 89 1 12 0.0 F 107 77 64 89 93 85 15.41 Rafael Bejarano
2026-05-22 28d CD 8.0f dirt Sloppy (Sealed) Str Alw 86 3 7 9.8 78 102 106 90 95 84 4.63 Rafael Bejarano
2026-04-24 47d OP 8.5f dirt Sloppy (Sealed) Clm 89 7 7 23.0 F 68 71 67 83 80 86 15.5 Abel Cedillo
2026-03-08 71d OP 8.5f dirt Good Clm 86 4 8 5.2 62 84 124 91 96 85 5.0 Luis Saez
2025-12-27 37d FG 8.0f turf Firm Alw 87 11 12 6.5 F 80 71 37 83 97 90 6.8 Brian Hernandez, Jr.
2025-11-20 264d·7.1× FG 8.5f turf Firm Alw 87 3 11 2.5 F 92 78 61 90 102 90 19.4 Reylu Gutierrez
2025-03-01 30d FG 8.5f turf Firm Stk 92 5 6 8.5 81 84 99 86 80 90 28.2 Edgar Morales
2025-01-30 61d FG 8.5f turf Firm AOC 90 4 7 5.2 84 101 117 87 81 90 10.9 Edgar Morales
2024-11-30 CD 8.0f dirt Fast AOC 91 8 9 15.0 F 77 104 97 88 90 91 21.0 John Velazquez
14 Todo Men
4G 123 lbs L P
2.2%
MODEL %
50-1
MODEL FAIR
-4.0
EDGE vs ML
15/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig87 -10 vs par
Needs +12~<1% run that
Class85.0 -5.3 vs race +2.3 gap
MC6.3% fair 15-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.25
Faced82.6 -7.7 vs today
Pace EP83.7 best 92.0
Pace LP86.3 best 109.0
Energy0.53
Connections
JockDylan Machadoκ 0.17
TrnPavel Matejkaκ 0.16
J×T29 · 17% win · 52% ITM
Angles
Dylan Machado / Pavel Matejka 14% -32% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 1012310%90.9
2026 512020%88.2
2025 40020%87.5
ELP 0000
Turf 511220%90.9
Route 30110%88.2
Wet 10000%77.8
WORKS 07-25 TTC 4 Furlongs :48.00 B 79 07-19 TTC 4 Furlongs :48.40 B 69 07-11 TTC 4 Furlongs :48.40 B 70 07-04 TTC 4 Furlongs :48.40 B 70 05-14 TTC 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 50 05-08 TTC 3 Furlongs :36.60 B 46
SIREMendelssohn 83 80%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-20 19d CD 8.0f turf Firm Clm 88 2 12 0.2 F 90 84 74 88 98 83 4.74 Dylan Machado
2026-06-01 12d MNR 7.5f turf Firm MSW 76 1 10 0.0 F 88 84 82 88 94 83 0.3 Dylan Machado
2026-05-20 56d·2.0× PID 6.0f synthetic Fast MSW 80 4 7 10.5 F 92 102 97 78 76 85 1.3 Israel Rodriguez
2026-03-25 25d TP 6.5f synthetic Fast MSW 86 7 12 9.0 F 82 89 88 85 88 84 9.72 Dylan Machado
2026-02-28 289d·10.3× TP 6.5f synthetic Fast Mdn Clm 83 2 12 6.5 F 76 93 109 86 81 85 7.36 Dylan Machado
2025-05-15 58d·2.1× BAQ 6.0f dirt Muddy (Sealed) MSW 86 5 8 13.2 F 74 nan 90 78 75 87 6.3 John Velazquez
2025-03-18 33d FG 8.0f turf Firm MSW 84 3 9 1.8 S 77 88 93 87 80 86 22.0 Mitchell Murrill
2025-02-13 28d FG 8.5f turf Firm MSW 85 5 10 3.0 S 84 91 102 85 70 86 8.6 Mitchell Murrill
2025-01-16 28d FG 5.5f dirt Good MSW 85 3 9 7.0 S 94 82 76 88 88 88 15.1 Mitchell Murrill
2024-12-19 FG 5.5f turf Firm MSW 85 3 9 3.2 95 97 95 91 88 85 31.1 Mitchell Murrill
13 Sketch
5G 123 lbs L P
1.7%
MODEL %
50-1
MODEL FAIR
-9.4
EDGE vs ML
8/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig90 -7 vs par
Needs +6~6% run that
Class91.5 +1.2 vs race -1.1 gap
MC20.1% fair 4-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.46
Faced91.5 +1.2 vs today
Pace EP81.3 best 94.5
Pace LP87.8 best 99.9
Energy0.50
Connections
JockMartin Garciaκ 0.11was Johan Rosado · +0.8
TrnConor Murphyκ 0.42
Angles
2nd off layoff 13% -27% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30% Conor Murphy: 2nd off layoff 3% -60%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 40100%95.9
2026 10000%82.4
2025 0000
ELP 0000
Turf 40100%95.9
Route 0000
Wet 0000
WORKS 07-24 TTC 5 Furlongs 1:01.00 B 83 07-03 TTC 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 49 06-20 TTC 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 60 05-26 TTC 4 Furlongs :52.60 B 28 ◆Island Barbie·87 05-13 TTC 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 59 ◆Island Barbie·87 05-08 TTC 4 Furlongs :48.40 B 66
SIREShowcasing (Gb) 83 74%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-13 760d·30.4× CNL 5.5f turf Good Alw 89 11 11 11.2 F 68 93 100 82 78 96 7.5 Johan Rosado
2024-06-13 25d CD 5.5f turf Firm Alw 92 2 6 1.2 S 86 88 92 94 94 96 4.2 Tyler Gaffalione
2024-05-19 18d BAQ 6.0f turf Firm Stk 90 4 7 2.8 94 95 89 96 91 98 1.15 Flavien Prat
2024-05-01 CD 5.5f turf Firm Stk 95 5 12 3.0 82 85 93 94 91 95 8.41 Flavien Prat
7 Sheriff Bart
3C 118 lbs L P
1.4%
MODEL %
50-1
MODEL FAIR
-18.6
EDGE vs ML
4/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig90 -7 vs par
Needs +10~1% run that
Class90.5 +0.2 vs race 0.0 gap
MC9.8% fair 9-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.21
Faced89.6 -0.7 vs today
Pace EP83.3 best 106.6
Pace LP84.6 best 107.0
Energy0.51
Connections
JockJaime Torresκ 0.14
TrnWilliam Mottκ 0.53
J×T80 · 20% win · 40% ITM
Angles
Jaime Torres / William Mott 20% -8% William Mott: first-time turf 11% -22% First-time turf 10% -26% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 710214%92.2
2026 410025%92.2
2025 30020%86.0
ELP 0000
Turf 510120%92.2
Route 40020%91.2
Wet 10010%86.0
WORKS 07-27 CD 3 Furlongs :38.00 B 39 07-20 CD 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 57 07-13 CD Four Furlongs 50.20 b 36 07-06 CD Four Furlongs 48.60 b 64 ◆Billal·100 06-13 CD 4 Furlongs :49.80 B 42 06-02 CD 4 Furlongs :48.60 B 58
SIREOscar Performance 86 92%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-21 43d CD 7.0f dirt Fast Alw 92 7 7 26.5 F 101 84 50 78 78 93 16.54 Jaime Torres
2026-05-09 42d CD 8.0f turf Firm Alw 90 5 11 4.8 F 75 87 87 91 100 93 4.81 John Velazquez
2026-03-28 34d GP 7.5f turf Firm Stk 91 5 7 2.0 84 84 95 92 95 92 3.7 Junior Alvarado
2026-02-22 119d·2.8× GP 7.5f turf Firm MSW 87 1 10 0.0 F 107 93 107 92 97 91 3.5 Junior Alvarado
2025-10-26 35d CD 8.0f turf Firm MSW 88 4 11 1.8 59 100 97 84 83 91 2.62 Tyler Gaffalione
2025-09-21 24d CD 8.5f dirt Sloppy (Sealed) MSW 88 3 11 2.0 F 88 82 92 86 86 89 5.12 James Graham
2025-08-28 KD 8.0f turf Firm MSW 86 3 11 3.8 F 88 86 88 85 76 86 4.24 Jaime Torres
16 Malevaje
4G 123 lbs L EP
0.5%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-1.5
EDGE vs ML
50/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig76 -21 vs par
Needs +19~<1% run that
Class76.4 -13.9 vs race -0.9 gap
MC0.1% fair 99-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.26
Faced78.7 -11.6 vs today
Pace EP82.7 best 99.1
Pace LP86.2 best 101.0
Energy0.54
Connections
JockJ.J. Mezaκ 0.1
TrnPaul Brown, Jr.κ -0.14
J×T13 · 8% win · 46% ITM
Angles
First-time turf 10% -26% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 141007%82.4
2026 310033%82.4
2025 60000%82.3
ELP 10000%74.1
Turf 80000%82.3
Route 910011%82.4
Wet 1100100%80.1
WORKS 07-17 TDD Four Furlongs 50.51 b 45
SIREAccelerate 83 73%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-27 48d BTP 8.318181818181818f dirt Sloppy (Sealed) Mdn Clm 76 1 5 0.0 87 77 84 80 92 76 5.7 J.J. Meza
2026-05-10 114d·2.4× CD 7.0f dirt Fast Mdn Clm 78 7 9 22.0 F 60 90 83 71 64 76 51.48 Antonio Bellardi, Jr.
2026-01-16 21d TP 8.0f synthetic Fast Mdn Clm 79 4 12 4.5 94 94 101 82 80 75 68.57 Julio Felix
2025-12-26 65d TP 8.0f synthetic Fast Mdn Clm 83 12 12 24.5 81 95 87 75 77 76 78.9 Xarel Forde
2025-10-22 55d IND 8.5f turf Good Mdn Clm 77 5 12 7.5 F 99 96 94 78 78 75 33.9 J.J. Meza
2025-08-28 36d BTP 8.5f turf Firm Mdn Clm 75 4 7 11.0 102 91 73 82 70 76 15.6 J.J. Meza
2025-07-23 13d BTP 8.0f turf Firm Mdn Clm 76 5 8 4.8 82 72 73 76 71 76 25.5 Cesar Orantes
2025-07-10 14d IND 6.0f dirt Fast Mdn Clm 76 6 6 13.0 S 90 98 104 77 72 77 8.3 Joseph Bealmear
2025-06-26 244d·5.1× IND 8.0f turf Good Mdn Clm 79 10 12 21.5 F 97 86 nan 73 73 80 96.4 Thiago Canuto
2024-10-25 KEE 9.0f turf Firm MSW 86 11 11 27.2 F 83 83 94 74 70 80 102.4 Jose Riquelme