ELP 2026-08-01 · US Racing

TRACKS · 2026-08-01

CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO

▸ How to read a horse block

MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σ_α. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.

R1 D R2 D R3 T R4 D R5 T R6 D R7 T R8 D R9 T R10 T

Purse $104,000. Six Furlongs. (Includes $51,000 – KTDF - Kentucky TB Devt Fund). For Three Year Olds And Upward Which Have Never Won $18,000 Twice Other Than Maiden, Claiming, Starter, Or State Bred Or Which Have Never Won Three Races Or Claiming Price $62,500. Three Year Olds, 122 Lbs.; Older, 126 Lbs. Non-winners Of Two Races Since June 1 Allowed 2 Lbs. A Race Since Then Allowed 4 Lbs. Claiming Price $62,500 (Races Where Entered For $40,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances).

TODAY'S CONTENDERS		WIN% · FAIR / ML	QIK%	STY	P1C	CLASS	PROJ	COND	LAST	SUS	J×T
1	Risk It	16% 5-1 / 8/1	11.7%	S	8th/1w	93 +0.6	94²-1	94⁷	94²	54⁹	L2J+0.6	14%	✓+1.92∠
2	Keep It Easy	8% 12-1 / 2/1	19.0%	S	7th/1w	91 -1.1	92⁶-3	95⁵	93³	79⁶	L3★goldJ-1.6	16%	1∠
3	Big Boat ✓	8% 10-1 / 6/1	10.2%	EP	2nd/1w	94 +1.2	96¹+1	98⁴	89⁷	88⁴	L1T→D	—	4∠
4	Market Street ✓	7% 12-1 / 9/2	11.4%	S	9th/1w	91 -1.2	93⁴-2	95⁵	95¹	88⁴	L1	10%	3∠
5	Can't Hush This ✓	24% 3-1 / 10/1	13.9%	P	4th/1w	93 +0.8	94²-1	102¹	92⁴	89³	J+1.0	—	✓+1.6★VALUE
6	Barksdale	22% 7-2 / 10/1	13.0%	EP	3rd/3w	90 -2.0	91⁷-4	94⁷	92⁴	74⁸	CLMT+0.3J-0.9	21%	1∠
7	Kalahari Dreams	8% 12-1 / 8/1	8.5%	P	5th/2w	93 +0.2	91⁷-4	100²	90⁶	92²	★goldJ-1.0	10%	1∠
8	Change of Command	3% 30-1 / 15/1	4.3%	EP	1st/4w	88 -5.0	85⁹-10	93⁹	88⁸	93¹	L1T-3.3J-1.5rte→spr	16%	⚠-5.04∠
9	Pinfire ✓	3% 30-1 / 6/1	8.0%	P	6th/3w	92 -0.5	93⁴-2	99³	87⁹	76⁷	L3	17%	2∠

Pace Projector SPEED DUEL (3+) closers favored 1st¼ 22.2s par 22.6 EP/LP

ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 8 HOLDS »»» 98/93 Change of Command 3 98/98 Big Boat 6 »» 95/98 Barksdale 5 91/96 Can't Hush This 7 » 96/98 Kalahari Dreams 9 »» 82/95 Pinfire 2 102/98 Keep It Easy 1 92/102 Risk It 4 C★ 100/110 Market Street

On the lead: 8, 3, 6 · race sets up for closers

5 Can't Hush This ★ VALUE

7G 122 lbs L P

24.1%

MODEL %

3-1

MODEL FAIR

+15.0

EDGE vs ML

10/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig94 -1 vs par

Needs +2~30% run that

Class93.3 +0.8 vs race +0.3 gap

MC16.9% fair 5-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.3

Faced91.3 -0.7 vs today

Pace EP82.5 best 91.4

Pace LP85.2 best 96.2

Energy0.53

Connections

JockGerardo Corralesκ 0.19was Adam Beschizza · +1.0

TrnGregory Foleyκ 0.33

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	39	6	8	6	15%	102.5
2026	5	0	1	1	0%	97.5
2025	7	1	3	1	14%	102.5
ELP	7	2	1	1	29%	97.2
Dirt	34	6	7	5	18%	102.5
Sprint	15	1	4	1	7%	102.5
Wet	7	1	1	1	14%	95.6

WORKS 04-24 CD 4 Furlongs :48.00 B 57 04-11 CD 4 Furlongs :47.00 B 73

SIRENot This Time 86 94%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-27 14d	CD	7.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	AOC	92	4	12	2.8	F	83	96	94	92	90	92	15.83	Adam Beschizza
2026-06-13 28d	CD	7.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	92	2	9	1.8	F	91	81	96	98	106	92	4.49	Adam Beschizza
2026-05-16 71d·2.2×	CD	7.0f	dirt	Muddy	AOC	92	10	11	12.0	F	78	86	91	91	88	93	11.13	Adam Beschizza
2026-03-06 44d	TP	8.0f	synthetic	Fast	AOC	91	3	9	6.2		78	nan	83	92	94	93	5.33	Joseph Ramos
2026-01-21 32d	TP	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	AOC	90	4	7	5.2		89	83	78	93	84	93	3.01	Edgar Morales
2025-12-20 27d	TP	6.5f	synthetic	Fast	Alw	92	2	6	0.1	F	77	nan	81	89	95	93	5.54	Adam Beschizza
2025-11-23 22d	CD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	92	5	8	6.8	F	96	94	96	98	101	93	2.62	Irad Ortiz, Jr.
2025-11-01 44d	CD	7.5f	dirt	Fast	AOC	92	2	6	0.8	F	96	nan	89	98	114	92	1.9	Axel Concepcion
2025-09-18 59d	CD	7.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	92	1	6	0.0	F	89	nan	89	102	118	92	6.61	Irad Ortiz, Jr.
2025-07-21	ELP	8.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	AOC	92	3	8	9.2		85	88	102	96	98	92	11.04	Declan Cannon

6 Barksdale

5G 122 lbs L EP

21.8%

MODEL %

7-2

MODEL FAIR

+12.7

EDGE vs ML

10/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig91 -4 vs par

Needs +2~30% run that

Class90.5 -2.0 vs race +0.1 gap

MC9.2% fair 10-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.26

Faced90.3 -1.7 vs today

Pace EP84.6 best 95.4

Pace LP81.5 best 98.0

Energy0.54

Connections

JockAdam Beschizzaκ 0.08was Mario Gutierrez · -0.9

TrnMatt Shirerκ 0.38CLAIMEDwas Rick Hiles · +0.3

J×T33 · 21% win · 36% ITM

Angles

Adam Beschizza / Matt Shirer 16% +6%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	20	5	1	1	25%	96.3
2026	4	1	1	0	25%	94.2
2025	5	1	0	1	20%	94.9
ELP	1	0	0	0	0%	94.7
Dirt	17	5	1	1	29%	96.3
Sprint	16	4	1	1	25%	96.3
Wet	4	2	0	0	50%	94.9

WORKS 07-24 CD 5 Furlongs :59.80 B 83 ★07-17 CD 5 Furlongs :59.00 B 95 07-09 Churchill Downs 4f:~ 49.6 nan 07-09 CD Four Furlongs 49.60 b 51 05-14 Keeneland Race Course 4f:~ 48.4 nan 04-27 CDT 4 Furlongs :52.00 B 23

SIREStreet Sense 84 88%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-06 16d	CD	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	90	2	8	0.5	F	84	74	65	92	98	90	5.04	Mario Gutierrez
2026-05-21 22d	CD	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	90	5	10	6.5	F	83	nan	78	92	91	90	1.76	Tyler Gaffalione
2026-04-29 59d	CD	6.5f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	Clm	89	1	5	0.0	F	88	97	98	94	94	89	1.33	Tyler Gaffalione
2026-03-01 134d·3.6×	OP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	91	10	10	16.0	F	86	86	94	88	87	91	26.7	Walter De La Cruz
2025-10-18 51d	BAQ	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Str Alw	91	3	7	0.2	F	95	86	77	91	103	90	8.45	Manuel Franco
2025-08-28 8d	SAR	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	91	6	7	8.8	F	73	87	86	90	93	90	6.1	Flavien Prat
2025-08-20 18d	SAR	6.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	Str Alw	90	1	5	0.0	F	98	96	51	95	102	89	1.3	Irad Ortiz, Jr.
2025-08-02 37d	SAR	7.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	93	11	11	32.0	F	82	88	83	83	76	91	23.5	Dylan Davis
2025-06-26 251d·6.8×	CD	6.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	AOC	91	8	10	7.8	F	85	94	105	90	97	90	15.03	Brian Hernandez, Jr.
2024-10-18	BAQ	6.0f	turf	Firm	Stk	91	8	9	14.0	F	84	87	83	84	89	92	23.0	Ramon Vazquez

1 Risk It

5H 122 lbs L S

16.2%

MODEL %

5-1

MODEL FAIR

+5.1

EDGE vs ML

8/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig94 -1 vs par

Needs +1~40% run that

Class93.1 +0.6 vs race +0.8 gap

MC14.3% fair 6-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.18

Faced90.8 -1.2 vs today

Pace EP83.2 best 92.3

Pace LP74.0 best 101.5

Energy0.53

Connections

JockBen Curtisκ 0.11was Keith Asmussen · +0.6

TrnSteven Asmussenκ 0.33

J×T22 · 14% win · 41% ITM

Angles

Steven Asmussen: 2nd off layoff 17% -28% 2nd off layoff 13% -27%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	28	2	6	3	7%	96.3
2026	6	0	0	1	0%	94.5
2025	11	1	3	1	9%	94.2
ELP	3	0	0	1	0%	94.2
Dirt	27	2	6	3	7%	96.3
Sprint	25	2	5	3	8%	96.3
Wet	2	0	0	0	0%	90.7

WORKS 07-19 ELP 4 Furlongs :48.20 B 72 ◆Vintage Cowboy·89 06-29 ELP 3 Furlongs :37.20 B 46 06-18 ELP 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 42

SIREGun Runner 89 97%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-06 65d·2.4×	ELP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	92	3	4	5.2		74	65	33	94	94	93	9.27	Keith Asmussen
2026-05-02 22d	OP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	90	5	12	2.2		82	83	83	94	97	92	30.1	Keith Asmussen
2026-04-10 13d	OP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	91	4	7	6.5	F	88	77	45	94	98	92	15.2	Erik Asmussen
2026-03-28 27d	OP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	90	4	9	4.8		90	87	102	94	95	92	14.2	Keith Asmussen
2026-03-01 58d·2.1×	OP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	90	4	9	2.5	F	92	88	89	94	96	91	13.9	Erik Asmussen
2026-01-02 22d	HOU	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	88	5	7	2.5		89	85	92	92	90	92	3.2	Stewart Elliott
2025-12-11 14d	RP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	84	1	7	0.0	F	90	90	88	90	87	92	0.6	Erik Asmussen
2025-11-27 28d	CD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	88	2	8	1.2	S	93	96	112	91	87	92	6.54	Erik Asmussen
2025-10-30 42d	CD	6.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	Alw	92	8	10	7.5		99	98	98	88	76	92	11.67	Keith Asmussen
2025-09-18	CD	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	89	2	7	2.8	F	86	84	83	94	100	92	2.16	Tyler Gaffalione

3 Big Boat

4C 122 lbs L EP

8.5%

MODEL %

10-1

MODEL FAIR

-5.8

EDGE vs ML

6/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig96 +1 vs par

Needs +3~22% run that

Class93.7 +1.2 vs race +1.9 gap

MC16.9% fair 5-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.23

Faced90.8 -1.2 vs today

Pace EP86.9 best 98.2

Pace LP84.2 best 97.9

Energy0.53

Connections

JockFrancisco Arrietaκ 0.25was Jose Ortiz · -0.0

TrnJames DiVitoκ 0.41

Angles

Francisco Arrieta / James DiVito 15% -40% Turf-to-dirt 14% -27% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% James DiVito: off layoff (60d+) 12% -29%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	10	2	2	3	20%	98.1
2026	0	0	0	0	—	—
2025	6	1	1	2	17%	98.1
ELP	2	1	0	0	50%	98.1
Dirt	9	2	2	2	22%	98.1
Sprint	6	2	1	3	33%	98.1
Wet	0	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-19 HAW 5 Furlongs 1:00.00 B 79 ★06-25 HAW 5 Furlongs 1:00.00 B G 83 06-17 HAW 5 Furlongs 1:01.60 B 59 06-03 HAW 5 Furlongs 1:00.20 B 67 05-26 HAW 4 Furlongs :48.40 B 53 05-17 HAW 3 Furlongs :35.80 B 49

SIRENyquist 86 93%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2025-10-09 25d	KEE	5.5f	turf	Good	Alw	91	3	8	4.0	F	94	nan	82	89	86	94	10.03	Jose Ortiz
2025-09-14 35d	CD	6.0f	dirt	Good	AOC	91	3	8	4.2	F	98	85	79	93	93	93	2.63	Orlando Mojica
2025-08-10 38d	ELP	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	91	4	6	11.8		98	87	98	95	104	93	1.96	Orlando Mojica
2025-07-03 83d·2.2×	ELP	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	89	1	11	0.0	F	78	83	98	98	115	93	17.69	Orlando Mojica
2025-04-11 46d	OP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	91	2	6	2.8	S	87	86	76	94	89	91	1.1	Ramon Vazquez
2025-02-24 73d	OP	8.5f	dirt	Fast	AOC	90	7	8	20.8	F	87	nan	83	87	80	94	0.7	Isaac Castillo
2024-12-13 41d	OP	8.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	90	2	9	1.8		94	nan	89	98	101	92	4.6	Isaac Castillo
2024-11-02 28d	CD	7.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	90	3	9	8.8	F	77	85	68	96	95	92	1.53	Ramon Vazquez
2024-10-05 23d	KEE	8.5f	dirt	Fast	G1	92	7	10	14.5	F	95	nan	88	95	96	93	29.98	Cristian Torres
2024-09-12	CD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	88	1	11	0.0	F	89	93	98	96	90	88	7.57	Cristian Torres

7 Kalahari Dreams

4G 122 lbs L P

8.1%

MODEL %

12-1

MODEL FAIR

-3.0

EDGE vs ML

8/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig91 -4 vs par

Needs +4~14% run that

Class92.7 +0.2 vs race -1.7 gap

MC8.2% fair 12-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.27

Faced92.0 0.0 vs today

Pace EP82.5 best 95.5

Pace LP85.0 best 97.9

Energy0.53

Connections

JockGabriel Saezκ 0.07was Luis Saez · -1.0

TrnPhilip Bauerκ 0.81

J×T10 · 10% win · 10% ITM

Angles

Gabriel Saez / Philip Bauer 11% -37%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	16	2	6	2	12%	100.9
2026	3	0	0	1	0%	91.6
2025	10	2	3	1	20%	100.9
ELP	1	0	0	0	0%	92.7
Dirt	15	2	6	2	13%	100.9
Sprint	13	2	5	2	15%	100.9
Wet	2	0	0	0	0%	91.6

WORKS 07-25 CD 4 Furlongs :48.00 B 67 07-18 CD 4 Furlongs :48.20 B 62 06-20 CD 4 Furlongs :48.60 B 58 ★06-13 CD 4 Furlongs :47.00 B 77 05-09 CD 4 Furlongs :48.60 B 56 05-01 CD 4 Furlongs :50.60 B 41 ◆Tetiaroa·94

SIRECountry House 84 85%ile turf 17%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-27 42d	CD	7.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	AOC	92	8	12	5.2	F	96	nan	89	90	87	92	13.85	Luis Saez
2026-05-16 28d	CD	7.0f	dirt	Muddy	AOC	92	6	11	6.8	F	67	74	84	92	94	92	12.04	Danny Sheehy
2026-04-18 120d·3.3×	KEE	6.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	92	3	4	11.8	F	82	99	93	90	91	93	4.1	Luis Saez
2025-12-19 41d	OP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	92	3	8	5.2	F	80	94	98	98	104	92	2.4	Luis Saez
2025-11-08 55d	CD	6.5f	dirt	Fast	AOC	92	2	8	2.2	F	96	nan	76	100	106	91	2.66	Irad Ortiz, Jr.
2025-09-14 21d	CD	6.0f	dirt	Good	AOC	91	2	8	4.0	F	100	86	57	95	94	90	1.52	Luis Saez
2025-08-24 36d	SAR	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Alw	90	1	6	0.0	F	103	nan	87	101	112	88	4.7	Luis Saez
2025-07-19 16d	SAR	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	91	5	11	8.5	F	96	93	106	96	92	88	8.1	Jose Ortiz
2025-07-03 32d	ELP	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	89	9	11	14.2	F	84	94	94	93	100	89	6.54	Martin Garcia
2025-06-01	CD	7.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	88	1	9	0.0	F	95	94	70	99	104	88	2.12	Jose Ortiz

2 Keep It Easy

4C 122 lbs L S

8.0%

MODEL %

12-1

MODEL FAIR

-25.3

EDGE vs ML

2/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig92 -3 vs par

Needs +4~14% run that

Class91.4 -1.1 vs race +0.1 gap

MC9.5% fair 9-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.31

Faced91.4 -0.6 vs today

Pace EP81.7 best 101.8

Pace LP80.4 best 98.4

Energy0.52

Connections

JockMartin Garciaκ 0.11was Irad Ortiz, Jr. · -1.6

TrnDale Romansκ 0.45

J×T19 · 16% win · 47% ITM

Angles

Martin Garcia / Dale Romans 14% +23%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	11	2	1	1	18%	95.4
2026	3	0	0	1	0%	93.2
2025	4	0	1	0	0%	95.4
ELP	0	0	0	0	—	—
Dirt	10	2	1	1	20%	95.4
Sprint	9	2	1	1	22%	95.4
Wet	2	0	0	1	0%	93.2

WORKS 07-27 CD 4 Furlongs :48.60 B 66 07-20 CD 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 57 07-13 CD Four Furlongs 46.00 b 86 05-30 CD 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 46 05-10 CD 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 37 04-11 CD 4 Furlongs :48.60 B 53

SIREHard Spun 84 86%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-27 42d	CD	7.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	AOC	92	3	12	0.5	F	102	82	57	93	92	90	3.43	Irad Ortiz, Jr.
2026-05-16 73d	CD	7.0f	dirt	Muddy	AOC	92	4	11	3.2	F	68	82	75	93	98	91	7.19	Corey Lanerie
2026-03-04 100d	TAM	8.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	90	6	10	8.8	F	77	nan	92	88	96	92	4.6	Edwin Gonzalez
2025-11-24 33d	MVR	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	92	5	9	6.0	F	74	92	nan	92	103	91	9.5	Corey Lanerie
2025-10-22 158d·2.1×	KEE	6.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	92	2	7	0.2		93	88	98	95	105	89	6.49	Corey Lanerie
2025-05-17 77d	PIM	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Stk	92	11	11	14.8	S	62	94	82	85	77	91	6.6	Junior Alvarado
2025-03-01 91d	GP	8.5f	dirt	Fast	G2	94	6	6	32.0	F	94	79	60	86	82	92	8.5	Corey Lanerie
2024-11-30 112d	CD	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Stk	88	1	8	0.0	F	90	88	82	95	107	88	2.69	Corey Lanerie
2024-08-10 44d	SAR	6.5f	dirt	Fast	G2	91	8	8	23.5	F	84	nan	86	87	75	92	2.9	Junior Alvarado
2024-06-27	CD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	88	1	7	0.0	F	62	82	92	93	91	89	23.29	Martin Chuan

4 Market Street

5H 122 lbs L S

7.0%

MODEL %

12-1

MODEL FAIR

-11.2

EDGE vs ML

9/2

M/L

Form

Proj Fig93 -2 vs par

Needs +1~40% run that

Class91.3 -1.2 vs race +1.9 gap

MC8.8% fair 10-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.17

Faced91.4 -0.6 vs today

Pace EP84.2 best 99.9

Pace LP82.6 best 110.2

Energy0.51

Connections

JockCristian Torresκ 0.14was Joseph Bealmear · -0.2

TrnAaron Shorterκ 0.13

J×T51 · 10% win · 27% ITM

Angles

2nd off layoff 13% -27% Cristian Torres / Aaron Shorter 12% -1% Aaron Shorter: 2nd off layoff 12% -41%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	26	3	2	4	12%	96.7
2026	0	0	0	0	—	—
2025	8	1	1	3	12%	95.7
ELP	2	1	0	0	50%	93.5
Dirt	25	3	2	4	12%	96.7
Sprint	21	3	2	3	14%	96.7
Wet	4	1	0	1	25%	95.7

WORKS 07-23 CDT 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 59 07-15 CDT 4 Furlongs :48.40 B 66 05-31 CDT 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 52 05-24 CDT 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 54 05-10 CDT 5 Furlongs 1:03.40 B 39 04-20 OP 4 Furlongs :50.80 B 34

SIREStreet Sense 84 88%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2025-09-20 49d	CD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	91	2	5	0.2	S	94	83	83	95	100	93	8.05	Joseph Bealmear
2025-08-02 37d	ELP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	93	7	10	6.2		64	72	56	94	97	93	16.52	Corey Lanerie
2025-06-26 31d	CD	6.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	AOC	91	4	10	3.5	F	91	93	86	93	102	92	14.85	Joseph Bealmear
2025-05-26 25d	CD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	92	1	5	0.0	F	100	97	110	95	102	92	5.17	Joseph Bealmear
2025-05-01 46d	OP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	90	3	10	1.5	F	nan	nan	85	94	101	90	37.4	Joseph Bealmear
2025-03-16 29d	OP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	88	3	8	1.8		90	88	74	93	90	90	4.8	Isaac Castillo
2025-02-15 28d	OP	6.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	Clm	88	3	10	5.5		84	84	94	96	92	91	5.8	Tyler Bacon
2025-01-18 36d	OP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	89	6	11	3.5	F	91	86	98	92	84	91	4.5	Tyler Bacon
2024-12-13 64d	OP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	91	8	8	11.5	F	84	100	104	89	82	91	12.9	Nik Juarez
2024-10-10	KEE	6.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	92	7	8	15.8	F	105	86	87	86	78	93	41.65	Jaime Torres

8 Change of Command

5H 122 lbs L EP

3.3%

MODEL %

30-1

MODEL FAIR

-3.0

EDGE vs ML

15/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig85 -10 vs par

Needs +5~10% run that

Class87.5 -5.0 vs race -2.1 gap

MC0.9% fair 99-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.32

Faced88.5 -3.5 vs today

Pace EP83.4 best 98.1

Pace LP79.6 best 93.2

Energy0.55

Connections

JockErik Asmussenκ 0.07was Samuel Marin · -1.5

TrnSteven Asmussenκ 0.33was Claude McGaughey III · -3.3

J×T1422 · 16% win · 46% ITM

Angles

Erik Asmussen / Steven Asmussen 17% -21% Steven Asmussen: off layoff (60d+) 17% -35% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	7	2	1	1	29%	93.9
2026	0	0	0	0	—	—
2025	0	0	0	0	—	—
ELP	0	0	0	0	—	—
Dirt	7	2	1	1	29%	93.9
Sprint	3	1	0	1	33%	93.3
Wet	1	0	0	0	0%	93.3

WORKS 07-19 ELP 4 Furlongs :49.60 B 50 07-12 ELP 5 Furlongs 1:01.60 B 61 ★07-02 ELP 5 Furlongs 1:00.60 H G 75 06-19 ELP 5 Furlongs 1:01.40 B 62

SIREInto Mischief 87 96%ile turf 15%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2024-08-24 196d·5.3×	MTH	8.318181818181818f	dirt	Fast	AOC	90	7	7	20.0		98	nan	88	88	81	90	2.5	Samuel Marin
2024-02-10 36d	TAM	8.5f	dirt	Fast	G3	91	11	11	21.5	F	87	92	86	88	84	91	4.1	Tyler Gaffalione
2024-01-05 19d	GP	8.5f	dirt	Fast	AOC	88	1	6	0.0		nan	nan	48	94	94	89	1.1	Jose Ortiz
2023-12-17 43d	GP	7.0f	dirt	Good	MSW	87	1	6	0.0	F	89	82	82	90	85	88	0.4	Jose Ortiz
2023-11-04 34d	AQU	8.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	87	2	7	1.2		70	89	93	94	102	86	3.9	Luis Rivera, Jr.
2023-10-01 37d	BAQ	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	86	3	12	5.0	F	101	84	56	90	85	84	4.3	Jose Ortiz
2023-08-25	SAR	6.0f	dirt	Muddy (Sealed)	MSW	89	4	8	13.0	F	94	nan	82	93	87	89	15.9	Jose Ortiz

9 Pinfire

6G 122 lbs L P

3.0%

MODEL %

30-1

MODEL FAIR

-11.3

EDGE vs ML

6/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig93 -2 vs par

Needs +8~2% run that

Class92.0 -0.5 vs race +0.9 gap

MC15.2% fair 6-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.37

Faced91.9 -0.1 vs today

Pace EP75.3 best 82.1

Pace LP82.6 best 94.7

Energy0.53

Connections

JockAxel Concepcionκ 0.14was Jaime Torres · +0.1

TrnMichael Tomlinsonκ 0.27

J×T63 · 17% win · 51% ITM

Angles

Axel Concepcion / Michael Tomlinson 17% -27% 3rd off layoff 14% -22%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	20	6	3	2	30%	100.5
2026	2	0	0	0	0%	95.3
2025	9	4	1	1	44%	100.5
ELP	1	1	0	0	100%	98.7
Dirt	15	5	2	2	33%	100.5
Sprint	20	6	3	2	30%	100.5
Wet	1	0	0	0	0%	94.8

WORKS 07-25 CD 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 56 07-18 CD 5 Furlongs 1:01.40 B 54 07-12 CD Four Furlongs 49.00 b 47 06-11 CD 4 Furlongs :48.20 B 63 05-16 CD 4 Furlongs :49.60 B 47 05-10 CD 5 Furlongs 1:02.20 B 35

SIREBolt D'Oro 85 89%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-17 25d	CD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	94	8	9	17.2	F	82	nan	69	87	82	94	17.33	Jaime Torres
2026-05-23 189d·5.7×	CD	6.5f	dirt	Good	Str Alw	91	4	6	1.8	F	71	80	95	95	100	93	2.05	Axel Concepcion
2025-11-15 31d	CD	5.5f	turf	Firm	Str Alw	90	11	12	12.8		nan	nan	92	80	79	94	5.16	Axel Concepcion
2025-10-15 74d·2.2×	KEE	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Str Alw	92	1	4	0.0	F	60	92	90	99	109	94	0.73	Axel Concepcion
2025-08-02 37d	ELP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	93	1	10	0.0		75	87	76	99	105	93	3.15	Axel Concepcion
2025-06-26 28d	CD	6.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	AOC	91	5	10	3.8	F	91	nan	82	95	102	92	3.25	Jaime Torres
2025-05-29 18d	CD	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Alw	91	1	7	0.0	F	91	87	70	100	111	92	2.61	Jaime Torres
2025-05-11 68d·2.1×	CD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Str Alw	92	4	4	2.0	F	75	91	89	98	100	90	2.29	Jaime Torres
2025-03-04 33d	FG	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	91	3	6	0.5	F	80	94	108	97	102	90	2.1	Jaime Torres
2025-01-30	FG	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	87	2	7	2.0	F	80	91	99	97	98	90	1.2	Jaime Torres