EVD 2026-08-01 · US Racing

TRACKS · 2026-08-01

CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO

▸ How to read a horse block

MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σ_α. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.

R1 D R2 D R3 T R4 D R5 T R6 D R7 T R8 D R9 D

Purse $10,000. Six Furlongs. (Includes $1,800 – Other Sources) (Plus $4,000 – ALBSS-Accredited LA Bred Slot Supplement). For Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward Which Have Not Won Two Races Since February 1, 2026. Three Year Olds, 121 Lbs.; Older, 124 Lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since July 1, 2026 Allowed 2 Lbs. Claiming Price $4,000. Louisiana Bred Claiming Price $5,000.

TODAY'S CONTENDERS		WIN% · FAIR / ML	QIK%	STY	P1C	CLASS	PROJ	COND	LAST	SUS	J×T
1	The Girl in Red	44% 6-5 / 5/2	30.9%	P	3rd/1w	84 +5.4	86²+1	89¹	87¹	81⁵	J-1.4▼cls	27%	✓+2.3⚓ANCHOR★PRIME2∠
2	Star Anise ✓	3% 30-1 / 10/1	5.4%	EP	2nd/1w	80 +2.2	82⁴-3	81⁷	71⁷	57⁷	L1T→Drte→spr▼cls	16%	5∠
3	Crusin Like a Cat ✓	16% 5-1 / 2/1	22.1%	P	4th/1w	80 +2.1	85³+0	85³	82³	91³	▼cls	18%
4	Day for the Gray ✓	18% 9-2 / 5/1	15.1%	S	7th/1w	80 +1.7	87¹+2	86²	84²	—	T-1.5	11%
5	Miss Rosie	6% 15-1 / 8/1	7.6%	P	5th/1w	79 +1.0	82⁴-3	82⁵	80⁴	98¹		7%	1∠
6	Bold Exaggeration ✓	4% 25-1 / 15/1	4.5%	C	8th/2w	79 +0.8	78⁷-7	85³	80⁴	90⁴	T-4.1J-0.9	0%	⚠-5.0
7	My Lucky Break	1% 99-1 / 20/1	2.6%	P	6th/3w	77 -0.8	74⁸-11	79⁸	71⁷	92²	L1T-1.1J-0.9▼cls	3%	⚠-3.24∠
8	Goldzone ✓	9% 10-1 / 9/2	12.0%	EP	1st/4w	82 +3.4	81⁶-4	82⁵	80⁴	69⁶	▼cls	25%	2∠

Pace Projector SPEED DUEL closers favored 1st¼ 22.2s par 22.6 EP/LP

ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 8 VULN »»» 108/97 Goldzone 2 89/94 Star Anise 1 C★ 95/125 The Girl in Red 3 96/106 Crusin Like a Cat 5 95/100 Miss Rosie 7 »» 101/96 My Lucky Break 4 95/112 Day for the Gray 6 » 93/96 Bold Exaggeration

On the lead: 8, 2 · race sets up for closers

1 The Girl in Red ★ PRIME

6M 122 lbs L P

43.6%

MODEL %

6-5

MODEL FAIR

+15.0

EDGE vs ML

5/2

M/L

Form

Proj Fig86 +1 vs par

Needs fits levelbase 88 vs par 85

Class83.5 +5.4 vs race +2.9 gap

MC25.0% fair 3-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.24

Faced82.6 +2.6 vs today

Pace EP80.7 best 94.8

Pace LP93.0 best 124.8

Energy0.55

Connections

JockTimothy Thorntonκ -0.01was Jose Alvarez · -1.4

TrnW. Calhounκ 0.29

J×T71 · 27% win · 65% ITM

Angles

Timothy Thornton / W. Calhoun 28% -6% Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	18	4	2	1	22%	89.1
2026	6	1	2	0	17%	89.1
2025	2	0	0	1	0%	82.5
EVD	1	0	1	0	0%	87.8
Dirt	18	4	2	1	22%	89.1
Sprint	18	4	2	1	22%	89.1
Wet	3	0	0	0	0%	83.7

WORKS 06-18 LS 4 Furlongs :52.00 B 37 06-10 LS 4 Furlongs :52.83 B 28 03-31 CCT 3 Furlongs :39.42 B 03-24 CCT 3 Furlongs :39.12 B 03-10 CCT 4 Furlongs :51.76 B

SIREUncaptured 83 77%ile turf 11%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-12 16d	LS	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	82	5	10	5.0		87	83	75	87	82	84	1.8	Jose Alvarez
2026-06-26 33d	LS	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	83	1	7	0.0	F	95	96	101	88	88	83	3.0	Jose Alvarez
2026-05-24 28d	LS	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	82	2	6	0.5	F	87	78	91	89	88	83	1.5	Jose Alvarez
2026-04-26 18d	LS	6.5f	dirt	Good	Clm	84	5	5	10.2	F	80	81	113	86	84	84	3.8	Jose Alvarez
2026-04-08 54d	EVD	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	83	2	8	2.5	F	57	94	125	88	89	84	6.2	Timothy Thornton
2026-02-13 54d	OP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	84	12	12	11.8		98	98	85	80	65	84	4.5	David Cabrera
2025-12-21 31d	OP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	81	3	9	0.8		100	87	74	82	76	83	2.4	David Cabrera
2025-11-20 340d·10.3×	DED	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Alw	83	8	8	19.2		82	95	104	75	62	85	5.9	Timothy Thornton
2024-12-15 60d	OP	6.0f	dirt	Muddy (Sealed)	Alw	86	5	10	15.0		93	87	86	82	80	86	10.3	Nik Juarez
2024-10-16	RP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	85	6	8	10.5		81	96	98	81	76	87	2.0	Jose Alvarez

4 Day for the Gray

5M 122 lbs L S

18.1%

MODEL %

9-2

MODEL FAIR

+1.4

EDGE vs ML

5/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig87 +2 vs par

Needs +2~30% run that

Class79.8 +1.7 vs race +7.4 gap

MC29.0% fair 5-2

ConfTIGHT σα 0.15

Faced82.1 +2.1 vs today

Pace EP86.7 best 95.5

Pace LP86.9 best 112.0

Energy0.53

Connections

JockIsaac Castilloκ 0.13was Harry Hernandez · +0.3

TrnCesar Goveaκ 0.03was Rosa Ramirez · -1.5

J×T9 · 11% win · 22% ITM

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	29	5	2	6	17%	89.6
2026	11	1	1	1	9%	89.1
2025	14	3	1	5	21%	89.6
EVD	8	1	1	3	12%	86.4
Dirt	27	5	2	6	19%	89.6
Sprint	28	5	2	5	18%	89.6
Wet	0	0	0	0	—	—

SIRERace Day 82 62%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-21 18d	LAD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	80	4	8	10.8	S	—	—	—	84	79	81	2.9	Harry Hernandez
2026-07-03 10d	EVD	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	81	3	7	8.5	F	89	nan	98	84	84	82	4.0	Javier Hernandez
2026-06-23 47d·2.6×	LAD	5.0f	dirt	Fast	Str Alw	83	5	7	5.0		94	90	76	82	80	82	46.9	Javier Hernandez
2026-05-07 20d	EVD	5.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	83	5	10	9.5	F	92	nan	88	84	75	83	27.1	Isaac Castillo
2026-04-17 9d	EVD	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	83	2	10	5.2	F	96	nan	82	86	78	83	7.1	Isaac Castillo
2026-04-08 20d	EVD	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	83	4	8	7.8	F	83	94	112	85	83	84	3.5	Isaac Castillo
2026-03-19 12d	FG	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Str Alw	84	6	6	7.0	F	80	76	99	88	91	84	22.9	Isaac Castillo
2026-03-07 31d	HOU	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Alw	85	6	7	10.0	F	91	91	83	85	88	84	12.0	Santos Rivera
2026-02-04 13d	DED	5.0f	dirt	Fast	Str Alw	83	4	8	3.2		85	80	68	85	78	83	4.8	Javier Hernandez
2026-01-22	FG	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	82	1	6	0.0	F	82	96	88	89	86	82	4.7	Paco Lopez

3 Crusin Like a Cat

5M 119 lbs L P

16.1%

MODEL %

5-1

MODEL FAIR

-17.2

EDGE vs ML

2/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig85 0 vs par

Needs +2~30% run that

Class80.2 +2.1 vs race +4.6 gap

MC17.6% fair 9-2

ConfTIGHT σα 0.19

Faced81.4 +1.4 vs today

Pace EP83.0 best 96.4

Pace LP88.7 best 106.1

Energy0.55

Connections

JockHarry Hernandezκ 0.1

TrnEduardo Ramirezκ 0.24

J×T11 · 18% win · 36% ITM

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	22	5	2	8	23%	91.1
2026	6	1	0	2	17%	84.8
2025	13	3	2	5	23%	91.1
EVD	11	3	2	4	27%	91.1
Dirt	22	5	2	8	23%	91.1
Sprint	21	5	2	8	24%	91.1
Wet	8	3	0	2	38%	90.5

WORKS 07-25 EVD 4 Furlongs :52.00 B 37 07-17 EVD 4 Furlongs :52.60 B 36 07-09 EVD 4 Furlongs :52.00 B 35 05-21 EVD 4 Furlongs :51.40 B 48 05-15 EVD 4 Furlongs :54.20 B 16 04-09 EVD 4 Furlongs :54.20 B 24 ◆Takeittothehouse·86

SIRECatalina Cruiser 82 71%ile turf 10%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-19 22d	EVD	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	83	6	7	7.0		76	88	106	82	73	80	7.2	Harry Hernandez
2026-05-28 41d	EVD	5.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	Clm	81	1	7	0.0		96	nan	95	85	81	80	1.3	Harry Hernandez
2026-04-17 35d	EVD	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	81	3	9	20.8	F	83	90	102	82	83	82	15.4	Juan Vargas
2026-03-13 50d·2.1×	FG	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	79	8	10	8.8	F	80	79	95	77	73	82	2.2	Hunter Rea
2026-01-22 12d	DED	6.5f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	Clm	83	3	7	9.8	F	87	70	72	80	74	83	5.4	Timothy Thornton
2026-01-10 24d	FG	6.0f	dirt	Sloppy	Str Alw	83	6	7	7.2		75	nan	69	80	78	83	21.2	Emanuel Nieves
2025-12-17 28d	DED	8.0f	dirt	Muddy (Sealed)	Str Alw	84	5	6	11.5	F	96	nan	82	83	84	84	21.6	Carlos Perez
2025-11-19 12d	DED	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	83	1	6	0.0	S	82	88	85	83	78	83	8.6	Carlos Perez
2025-11-07 9d	DED	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Str Alw	83	3	5	4.2	S	65	97	94	80	70	82	11.4	Carlos Perez
2025-10-29	DED	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	81	3	9	7.0		94	nan	88	81	77	82	13.6	Carlos Perez

8 Goldzone

5M 119 lbs L EP

8.6%

MODEL %

10-1

MODEL FAIR

-9.6

EDGE vs ML

9/2

M/L

Form

Proj Fig81 -4 vs par

Needs +5~10% run that

Class81.5 +3.4 vs race -0.8 gap

MC6.0% fair 15-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.2

Faced80.4 +0.4 vs today

Pace EP84.7 best 107.6

Pace LP78.8 best 96.7

Energy0.55

Connections

JockElio Barreraκ 0.12

TrnIsai Gonzalezκ 0.03

J×T16 · 25% win · 50% ITM

Angles

Elio Barrera / Isai Gonzalez 22% +93% Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	23	4	2	17%	83.5
2026	7	2	0	29%	82.3
2025	13	2	1	15%	82.0
EVD	9	2	0	22%	82.3
Dirt	19	4	1	21%	82.3
Sprint	17	4	0	24%	83.5
Wet	5	1	1	20%	78.6

WORKS 07-02 EVD 4 Furlongs :49.80 B 62 ◆Yuma'S Shadow·88 05-08 EVD 3 Furlongs :36.60 B 50 04-10 EVD 3 Furlongs :38.60 B 26 03-20 EVD 4 Furlongs :50.80 B 52

SIREGoldencents 82 63%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-09 34d	EVD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	83	4	7	3.8	F	76	78	62	80	79	81	36.0	Elio Barrera
2026-06-05 20d	EVD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	81	1	6	0.0		84	83	97	82	80	80	21.2	Elio Barrera
2026-05-16 29d	EVD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	81	4	11	5.5		83	86	84	78	73	80	13.8	Joel Dominguez
2026-04-17 65d·2.6×	EVD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	79	5	11	2.8		108	nan	62	80	70	79	16.4	Joel Dominguez
2026-02-11 25d	DED	6.5f	dirt	Muddy (Sealed)	Clm	78	4	9	10.5	S	87	84	86	78	73	80	7.9	Joel Dominguez
2026-01-17 9d	DED	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	78	5	9	17.5	S	104	90	102	75	63	82	2.6	Joel Dominguez
2026-01-08 20d	DED	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	81	1	7	0.0		72	85	105	79	80	81	15.8	Joel Dominguez
2025-12-19 21d	DED	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	78	5	8	3.2		77	91	98	76	76	81	4.8	Kevin Roman
2025-11-28 30d	DED	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	77	4	10	4.2		79	89	94	75	68	80	1.6	Kevin Roman
2025-10-29	DED	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	79	4	10	8.0		86	100	90	75	74	81	3.2	Joel Dominguez

5 Miss Rosie

5M 119 lbs L P

5.9%

MODEL %

15-1

MODEL FAIR

-5.2

EDGE vs ML

8/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig82 -3 vs par

Needs +4~14% run that

Class79.1 +1.0 vs race +2.7 gap

MC9.1% fair 10-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.23

Faced81.7 +1.7 vs today

Pace EP84.6 best 94.7

Pace LP86.0 best 100.3

Energy0.54

Connections

JockCarlos Perezκ 0.04

TrnBrett Brinkmanκ 0.1

J×T56 · 7% win · 41% ITM

Angles

Carlos Perez / Brett Brinkman 7% -70%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	16	4	3	4	25%	88.1
2026	5	1	0	1	20%	82.4
2025	7	1	2	3	14%	84.2
EVD	5	0	1	2	0%	82.9
Dirt	16	4	3	4	25%	88.1
Sprint	14	4	3	3	29%	88.1
Wet	4	2	1	1	50%	88.1

WORKS 03-25 EVD 4 Furlongs :51.20 B 42

SIREEl Deal 81 47%ile turf 14%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-03 36d	EVD	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	81	4	7	13.2	F	95	93	100	80	78	80	11.9	Carlos Perez
2026-05-28 21d	EVD	6.5f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	Clm	79	3	10	8.2	F	89	77	78	82	82	81	15.3	Carlos Perez
2026-05-07 83d·2.3×	EVD	5.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	83	9	10	13.2	F	87	94	87	80	70	82	38.1	Carlos Perez
2026-02-13 21d	DED	7.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	82	10	10	23.2	S	83	100	97	75	62	84	1.9	Joel Dominguez
2026-01-23 24d	DED	6.5f	dirt	Muddy (Sealed)	Alw	83	1	8	0.0	S	82	77	85	82	77	83	2.1	Vicente Del-Cid
2025-12-30 41d	DED	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	80	2	5	0.2	S	93	84	69	80	75	83	0.6	Vicente Del-Cid
2025-11-19 26d	DED	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	83	3	6	2.2	S	80	89	91	81	76	82	1.3	Vicente Del-Cid
2025-10-24 78d·2.2×	DED	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	81	2	10	3.8	S	88	89	93	78	73	82	2.5	C.J. McMahon
2025-08-07 168d·4.7×	EVD	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	83	3	8	3.5	F	99	90	108	82	81	86	3.5	C.J. McMahon
2025-02-20	FG	8.318181818181818f	dirt	Fast	AOC	84	6	10	16.5	S	90	89	87	78	65	87	4.1	Kylie Wellington

6 Bold Exaggeration

6M 117 lbs L C

3.9%

MODEL %

25-1

MODEL FAIR

-2.4

EDGE vs ML

15/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig78 -7 vs par

Needs +6~6% run that

Class78.9 +0.8 vs race -0.6 gap

MC3.6% fair 25-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.26

Faced82.1 +2.1 vs today

Pace EP85.6 best 93.0

Pace LP82.9 best 96.3

Energy0.52

Connections

JockJavier Hernandezκ 0.04was Isaac Castillo · -0.9

TrnRussell Giangrossoκ -0.16was Eduardo Ramirez · -4.1

J×T4 · 0% win · 25% ITM

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	33	10	3	4	30%	90.5
2026	4	0	0	0	0%	82.4
2025	11	6	2	1	55%	90.5
EVD	6	1	0	0	17%	84.8
Dirt	27	9	3	4	33%	90.5
Sprint	28	9	2	3	32%	90.5
Wet	4	0	1	1	0%	84.7

WORKS 06-20 EVD 4 Furlongs :54.20 B 23 05-21 EVD 4 Furlongs :54.80 B 14 05-15 EVD 4 Furlongs :51.80 B 38 05-07 EVD 4 Furlongs :50.40 B 54 04-09 EVD 4 Furlongs :54.40 B 18 04-01 EVD 5 Furlongs 1:06.00 B 44

SIREExaggerator 81 47%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-03 36d	EVD	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	81	7	7	17.0	F	92	99	88	80	74	81	8.2	Isaac Castillo
2026-05-28 43d	EVD	6.5f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	Clm	79	4	10	9.0	F	82	88	75	82	81	82	5.8	Javier Hernandez
2026-04-15 60d	EVD	8.0f	turf	Firm	AOC	83	8	11	15.0	S	87	nan	96	75	73	82	27.3	Jose Riquelme
2026-02-14 59d	DED	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Str Alw	84	5	5	18.5	S	93	89	83	79	75	84	5.4	Kevin Roman
2025-12-17 27d	DED	8.0f	dirt	Muddy (Sealed)	Str Alw	84	3	6	9.5	F	91	83	81	85	86	84	3.1	Vicente Del-Cid
2025-11-20 21d	DED	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Alw	83	1	8	0.0		84	86	94	85	84	83	1.9	Vicente Del-Cid
2025-10-30 38d	DED	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	82	1	10	0.0		81	80	79	84	80	82	3.4	Isaac Castillo
2025-09-22 42d	LAD	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	82	1	8	0.0		89	91	89	90	88	82	4.5	Isaac Castillo
2025-08-11 28d	LAD	8.0f	turf	Firm	Str Alw	82	6	7	8.0		94	86	103	80	74	82	11.5	Jairo Rodriguez
2025-07-14	LAD	8.318181818181818f	dirt	Fast	Str Alw	82	1	7	0.0	S	74	85	93	85	86	82	4.5	Jairo Rodriguez

2 Star Anise

5M 122 lbs L EP

2.8%

MODEL %

30-1

MODEL FAIR

-6.3

EDGE vs ML

10/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig82 -3 vs par

Needs +7~4% run that

Class80.3 +2.2 vs race +1.5 gap

MC8.4% fair 10-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.3

Faced84.5 +4.5 vs today

Pace EP81.0 best 89.1

Pace LP78.8 best 94.1

Energy0.54

Connections

JockJose Rodriguezκ 0.04

TrnCesar Goveaκ 0.03

J×T44 · 16% win · 34% ITM

Angles

Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23% Jose Rodriguez / Cesar Govea 16% -17% Turf-to-dirt 14% -27% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% Cesar Govea: off layoff (60d+) 2% -38%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	21	3	1	5	14%	89.8
2026	3	0	0	1	0%	82.3
2025	9	3	1	0	33%	88.6
EVD	6	2	1	0	33%	85.2
Dirt	6	1	1	1	17%	85.2
Sprint	7	1	0	3	14%	88.6
Wet	3	0	1	1	0%	84.1

WORKS 07-25 EVD 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 62 07-16 EVD Four Furlongs 49.60 b 62 03-31 EVD 4 Furlongs :49.80 B 59

SIREBolt D'Oro 85 89%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-04-09 55d	EVD	8.0f	turf	Firm	Clm	84	10	11	21.2	S	61	52	54	71	62	82	20.5	Jose Rodriguez
2026-02-13 19d	FG	8.318181818181818f	dirt	Fast	Clm	82	6	8	9.2	S	88	nan	89	82	78	83	3.7	Ben Curtis
2026-01-25 99d·2.8×	FG	8.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	Clm	85	3	4	17.8		89	74	84	80	76	85	1.9	Paco Lopez
2025-10-18 77d·2.1×	DED	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	86	6	7	10.5		89	79	69	81	76	86	14.0	Thomas Pompell
2025-08-02 29d	EVD	8.0f	turf	Firm	Clm	85	5	9	4.0	F	80	102	94	84	83	86	2.3	Thomas Pompell
2025-07-04 36d	EVD	8.0f	turf	Firm	AOC	83	1	10	0.0	F	90	83	81	85	89	85	6.5	Thomas Pompell
2025-05-29 20d	EVD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	82	1	5	0.0	S	80	71	81	85	86	85	0.4	Thomas Pompell
2025-05-09 23d	EVD	8.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	Clm	82	2	8	0.2		99	92	85	84	82	84	5.0	Thomas Pompell
2025-04-16 38d	EVD	8.0f	turf	Firm	AOC	84	7	11	9.5	F	95	91	69	82	77	85	11.4	Carlos Perez
2025-03-09	FG	8.0f	turf	Good	Clm	84	5	11	3.2	S	99	90	93	82	70	84	4.3	Ben Curtis

7 My Lucky Break

5M 119 lbs L P

0.9%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-3.9

EDGE vs ML

20/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig74 -11 vs par

Needs +12~<1% run that

Class77.3 -0.8 vs race -2.8 gap

MC1.1% fair 99-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.4

Faced84.5 +4.5 vs today

Pace EP85.7 best 100.6

Pace LP83.7 best 96.1

Energy0.54

Connections

JockEdward Santiagoκ -0.05was Weston Hamilton · -0.9

TrnHenry West, Jr.κ -0.27was Leonard Johnson · -1.1

J×T33 · 3% win · 15% ITM

Angles

Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% Henry West, Jr.: off layoff (60d+) 4% -51% Edward Santiago / Henry West, Jr. 4% -56%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	22	3	3	14%	89.9
2026	1	0	0	0%	70.8
2025	9	0	0	0%	82.5
EVD	11	0	1	0%	86.4
Dirt	22	3	3	14%	89.9
Sprint	21	3	3	14%	89.9
Wet	5	1	0	20%	89.1

WORKS 07-20 EVD 5 Furlongs 1:03.80 B 60 ★07-06 EVD 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 69 03-28 HOU 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 52

SIREBreaking Lucky 79 29%ile turf 11%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-01-24 99d·3.7×	HOU	6.0f	dirt	Muddy (Sealed)	Alw	85	6	6	25.2	S	88	80	96	71	62	78	25.9	Weston Hamilton
2025-10-17 63d·2.3×	DED	5.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	81	10	10	14.2		80	89	78	75	70	78	20.1	Jonuelle Pena
2025-08-15 14d	EVD	6.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	Str Alw	82	8	8	12.5	F	101	90	92	74	72	80	35.7	Cole Meche
2025-08-01 27d	EVD	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Alw	88	6	6	21.0	F	88	98	80	78	77	81	52.8	Sergio Munoz
2025-07-05 59d·2.2×	EVD	6.5f	dirt	Fast	AOC	86	11	11	12.8	F	89	91	84	79	82	81	155.9	Jose Florian
2025-05-07 21d	EVD	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	81	7	9	14.8	F	nan	nan	77	75	75	83	7.9	Treylon Albert
2025-04-16 61d·2.3×	EVD	7.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	87	12	12	19.0	F	90	93	83	76	71	85	112.9	Juan Vargas
2025-02-14 17d	DED	7.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	87	5	5	6.8	S	78	75	70	77	73	84	25.6	Juan Vargas
2025-01-28 25d	DED	7.0f	dirt	Muddy (Sealed)	AOC	86	6	8	9.2		73	87	122	76	71	85	34.5	Juan Vargas
2025-01-03	HOU	8.318181818181818f	dirt	Fast	AOC	86	5	6	7.0	S	95	91	71	82	84	84	12.7	Ernesto Valdez-Jiminez