TRACKS · 2026-08-01
CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO
ALL CARDS ↗
▸ How to read a horse block
MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σα. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.
R1 D R2 D R3 T R4 D R5 T R6 D R7 T R8 D R9 D
R8 D. S. Shine Young Futurity
EVD 2026-08-01 Five And One Half Furlongs DIRT
86
strength
-2.8 soft
87
win par
fig to beat
LONE SPEED
shape
front favored
HONEST
early pace
1st¼ 22.6s / par 22.6
TOP-HEAVY
field
figs 76.2–84.9
Purse $100,000. Five And One Half Furlongs. (Includes $75,000 – Other Sources) (Includes $25,000 – LTBA - Video Poker #2). For Accredited Louisiana Bred Colts & Geldings Two Years Old. Free to nominate and start, $750 to enter. Supplemental nominations of $1,500 will be accepted at time of entries which will include all fees. $100,000 guaranteed to be divided per condition book stake structure payout percentages per field size. Weight: 120 Lbs. Maidens allowed 3 Lbs. Preference to horses with the highest earnings at time of entry. Different owner entries will have equal draw according to preferences. The second part of same owner entries will have no consideration over a single interest. Failure to draw into race cancels all fees. Trophy to winning owner.
TODAY'S CONTENDERS WIN% · FAIR / ML QIK% STY P1C CLASS PROJ COND LAST SUS J×T
1 Deal Breckin 0% 99-1 / 20/1 2.3% 7th/1w — 824-5 — — — — 1∠
2 Runaway Jury 1% 99-1 / 12/1 3.9% EP 2nd/1w 83 -6.5 807-7 785 785 874 ▲cls 21% 2∠
3 Hes Steelin Mylady 79% 2-5 / 9/5 48.4% 5th/1w 86 -2.8 851-2 861 861 911 L1▲cls 13% ★PRIME4∠
4 Tevs Fast Dash 0% 99-1 / 15/1 2.9% P 4th/1w 78 -10.7 768-11 736 716 893 ▲cls 11% 2∠
5 Star of Bethlehem 4% 25-1 / 6/1 8.3% E 1st/2w 86 -3.2 833-4 823 823 911 T+0.6J+1.0▲cls — ✓+1.11∠
6 Army Running Bayou 0% 99-1 / 9/2 8.5% 8th/2w 90 +1.0 816-6 — — — 22% 2∠
7 Golfito ✓ 7% 15-1 / 5/1 10.4% 6th/3w 87 -2.3 842-3 823 823 776 J+2.0▲cls — ✓+2.22∠
8 Max Attack ✓ 9% 10-1 / 3/1 15.3% P 3rd/3w 86 -2.7 824-5 832 832 855 ▲cls 12% 2∠
Pace Projector LONE SPEED front favored 1st¼ 22.6s par 22.6 EP/LP
ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 5 LS★ ⚡ » 103/80 Star of Bethlehem 2 LP 82/97 Runaway Jury 8 »» 81/89 Max Attack 4 LP 88/94 Tevs Fast Dash 3 91/90 Hes Steelin Mylady 7 »» 74/81 Golfito 1 Deal Breckin 6 » Army Running Bayou
On the lead: 5 · race sets up for front
3 Hes Steelin Mylady ★ PRIME THIN DATA
2C 120 lbs
79.2%
MODEL %
2-5
MODEL FAIR
+43.5
EDGE vs ML
9/5
M/L
Form
Proj Fig85 -2 vs par
Needs +1~40% run that
Class86.3 -2.8 vs race -1.4 gap
MC19.6% fair 4-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.42
Faced81.3 -5.0 vs today
Pace EP82.9 best 91.5
Pace LP82.6 best 90.4
Energy0.51
Connections
JockMitchell Murrillκ 0.14
TrnAaron Westκ 0.14
J×T23 · 13% win · 39% ITM
Angles
Aaron West: off layoff (60d+) 18% -31% 2nd career start 13% -28% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 1100100%86.2
2026 1100100%86.2
2025 0000——
EVD 0000——
Dirt 1100100%86.2
Sprint 1100100%86.2
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-15 IND 5 Furlongs 1:01.60 B 63 06-20 IND 4 Furlongs :49.60 B 52 05-12 IND 4 Furlongs :48.20 B G 58 ★05-01 IND 3 Furlongs :36.20 B 52 04-21 IND 3 Furlongs :36.20 B 52 04-14 IND 3 Furlongs :35.80 B 51
SIRELife Is Good 99 99%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-05-26 IND 5.0f dirt Fast MSW 81 1 7 0.0 F 92 81 90 86 84 81 1.6 Mitchell Murrill
8 Max Attack THIN DATA
2C 120 lbs L P
9.0%
MODEL %
10-1
MODEL FAIR
-16.0
EDGE vs ML
3/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig82 -5 vs par
Needs +5~15% run that
Class86.4 -2.7 vs race -4.5 gap
MC13.3% fair 7-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.3
Faced81.8 -4.5 vs today
Pace EP80.0 best 81.2
Pace LP81.5 best 89.1
Energy0.51
Connections
JockElio Barreraκ 0.12
TrnJayde Gelnerκ 0.1
J×T67 · 12% win · 45% ITM
Angles
Elio Barrera / Jayde Gelner 16% -46% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 211050%82.6
2026 211050%82.6
2025 0000——
EVD 211050%82.6
Dirt 211050%82.6
Sprint 211050%82.6
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-24 EVD 4 Furlongs :50.80 B 52 06-27 EVD 4 Furlongs :49.60 B 63 06-19 EVD 4 Furlongs :50.80 B 47 05-29 EVD 4 Furlongs :49.40 B G 61 05-15 EVD 4 Furlongs :49.80 B G 57 05-01 EVD 3 Furlongs :37.80 B 38
SIREMaximus Mischief 84 84%ile turf 12%
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-04 28d EVD 5.0f dirt Fast MSW 82 1 7 0.0 81 88 89 83 83 86 0.9 Elio Barrera
2026-06-06 EVD 4.5f dirt Fast MSW 82 2 5 1.8 S 79 79 78 81 76 82 1.8 Elio Barrera
7 Golfito THIN DATA
2C 120 lbs L
6.6%
MODEL %
15-1
MODEL FAIR
-10.1
EDGE vs ML
5/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig84 -3 vs par
Needs +5~15% run that
Class86.8 -2.3 vs race -3.3 gap
MC18.0% fair 9-2
ConfNORMAL σα 0.35
Faced81.8 -4.5 vs today
Pace EP78.4 best 73.6
Pace LP80.1 best 80.5
Energy0.50
Connections
JockAngel Castilloκ 0.23was Jose Rodriguez · +2.0
TrnJorge Laraκ -0.08
Angles
2nd career start 13% -28% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 1100100%82.3
2026 1100100%82.3
2025 0000——
EVD 1100100%82.3
Dirt 1100100%82.3
Sprint 1100100%82.3
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-08 LAD 4 Furlongs :48.40 B 68 05-26 LAD 5 Furlongs 1:02.30 B 52 05-18 LAD 4 Furlongs :48.00 B G 72 05-02 LAD 4 Furlongs :49.00 B G 56 04-25 LAD 3 Furlongs :38.00 B 36
SIRECarpe Diem 83 78%ile turf 13%
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-06 EVD 4.5f dirt Fast MSW 82 1 5 0.0 S 74 79 80 82 79 82 3.2 Jose Rodriguez
5 Star of Bethlehem THIN DATA
2C 120 lbs L E
4.0%
MODEL %
25-1
MODEL FAIR
-10.3
EDGE vs ML
6/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig83 -4 vs par
Needs +5~15% run that
Class85.9 -3.2 vs race -2.6 gap
MC19.8% fair 4-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.38
Faced76.6 -9.7 vs today
Pace EP85.7 best 102.6
Pace LP79.9 best 79.7
Energy0.51
Connections
JockHarry Hernandezκ 0.1was Agustin Gomez · +1.0
TrnPatrick Devereux, Jr.κ 0.2was Jose Orantes · +0.6
Angles
Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 10100%81.9
2026 10100%81.9
2025 0000——
EVD 0000——
Dirt 10100%81.9
Sprint 10100%81.9
Wet 10100%81.9
WORKS 07-11 EVD 3 Furlongs :36.80 B 47 ★06-21 TTC 3 Furlongs :35.40 B 61 06-09 TTC 4 Furlongs :50.00 B G 43 ★06-04 TTC 3 Furlongs :35.00 B 57 05-28 TTC 3 Furlongs :40.00 B G 20
SIREStar Guitar 81 51%ile turf 11%
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-27 BTP 5.0f dirt Sloppy (Sealed) MSW 77 2 7 0.8 S 103 86 80 82 71 77 3.8 Agustin Gomez
2 Runaway Jury THIN DATA
2C 117 lbs L EP
0.7%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-7.0
EDGE vs ML
12/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig80 -7 vs par
Needs +10~3% run that
Class82.6 -6.5 vs race -3.1 gap
MC9.9% fair 9-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.33
Faced81.8 -4.5 vs today
Pace EP80.2 best 81.9
Pace LP85.9 best 96.8
Energy0.53
Connections
JockKevin Romanκ 0.01was Emanuel Nieves · +0.1
TrnRicky Courvilleκ -0.02
J×T28 · 21% win · 43% ITM
Angles
Kevin Roman / Ricky Courville 20% +9% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 20110%77.8
2026 20110%77.8
2025 0000——
EVD 20110%77.8
Dirt 20110%77.8
Sprint 20110%77.8
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-25 EVD 5 Furlongs 1:03.60 B 54 06-27 EVD 4 Furlongs :49.60 B 62 05-30 EVD 4 Furlongs :49.60 B 62 05-16 EVD 4 Furlongs :51.40 B 44 04-30 EVD 3 Furlongs :36.80 B G 50 04-22 EVD 4 Furlongs :51.20 B 41
SIREBy My Standards 84 84%ile turf 9%
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-04 28d EVD 5.0f dirt Fast MSW 82 2 7 5.5 82 88 92 78 75 82 3.4 Emanuel Nieves
2026-06-06 EVD 4.5f dirt Fast MSW 82 3 5 6.8 S 79 92 97 76 68 82 4.4 C.J. McMahon
1 Deal Breckin
2G 117 lbs L 1
0.1%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-4.7
EDGE vs ML
20/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig82 -5 vs par
MC8.7% fair 10-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockTimothy Thorntonκ -0.01
TrnRay Robbinsκ 0.18
Angles
Debut 11% -25%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
EVD 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS ★07-18 DED 4 Furlongs :51.00 B G 34 06-24 EVD 4 Furlongs :52.80 B 36 ★06-12 DED 4 Furlongs :50.00 B G 58 ★05-09 DED 3 Furlongs :39.60 B G 27 ★04-18 DED 3 Furlongs :36.00 B G 55
SIREEl Deal 81 47%ile 1st-out 24% (78) turf 14%
No prior races in database
6 Army Running Bayou
2G 120 lbs L
0.1%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-18.1
EDGE vs ML
9/2
M/L
Form
Proj Fig81 -6 vs par
Class90.1 +1.0 vs race -9.2 gap
MC6.3% fair 15-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockC.J. McMahonκ 0.02
TrnAlan Klanferκ 0.08
J×T9 · 22% win · 89% ITM
Angles
2nd career start 13% -28% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
EVD 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-07 CCT 4 Furlongs :51.54 H G 47 06-30 CCT 4 Furlongs :50.05 H G 06-23 CCT 4 Furlongs :52.75 B 06-09 CCT 3 Furlongs :39.20 B
SIREArmy Mule 84 86%ile 1st-out 24% (160) turf 16%
No prior races in database
4 Tevs Fast Dash THIN DATA
2C 117 lbs L P
0.1%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-6.2
EDGE vs ML
15/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig76 -11 vs par
Needs +15~<1% run that
Class78.4 -10.7 vs race -2.2 gap
MC4.4% fair 20-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.34
Faced81.8 -4.5 vs today
Pace EP82.4 best 87.8
Pace LP84.9 best 94.2
Energy0.54
Connections
JockThomas Pompellκ 0.12
TrnEdith Mojicaκ 0.02
J×T18 · 11% win · 33% ITM
Angles
Thomas Pompell / Edith Mojica 11% +45% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 20010%73.3
2026 20010%73.3
2025 0000——
EVD 20010%73.3
Dirt 20010%73.3
Sprint 20010%73.3
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-23 EVD 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 65 ★06-19 EVD 4 Furlongs :48.00 B 74 05-20 EVD 4 Furlongs :49.20 B G 63 ★05-08 EVD 3 Furlongs :36.00 B 56 04-29 EVD 4 Furlongs :50.00 B G 54 ★04-21 EVD 4 Furlongs :48.00 B 76
SIRECustom For Carlos 79 24%ile turf 12%
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-04 28d EVD 5.0f dirt Fast MSW 82 3 7 13.8 88 96 90 71 63 81 4.2 Thomas Pompell
2026-06-06 EVD 4.5f dirt Fast MSW 82 4 5 8.0 S 84 96 94 73 66 82 1.9 Thomas Pompell