TRACKS · 2026-08-01 ALL CARDS ↗
▸ How to read a horse block
MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σα. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.
R1 D R2 D R3 T R4 D R5 T R6 D R7 T R8 D R9 D
R3 CLAIMING
EVD 2026-08-01 About Seven And One Half Furlongs TURF
83
strength
+2.1 salty
89
win par
fig to beat
SPEED DUEL
shape
closers favored
FAST
early pace
1st¼ 23.2s / par 23.7
TOP-HEAVY
field
figs 74.4–83.3
Purse $22,500. About Seven And One Half Furlongs. (Turf) (Rail at 20 Feet) (Includes $13,900 – Other Sources) (Includes $2,500 – LAVPF - Louisiana Video Poker Fund). (includes Up To $1,100 Ltbasbf) For Accredited La Bred Three Year Olds And Upward Which Have Never Won Four Races Or Which Have Not Won Two Races Since November 1, 2025. Three Year Olds, 121 Lbs.; Older, 124 Lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since July 1, 2026 Allowed 2 Lbs. A Race Since June 1, 2026 Allowed 4 Lbs. Claiming Price $15,000, if for $12,500, allowed 2 Lbs. (Claiming Races For $10,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances). .
TODAY'S CONTENDERS WIN% · FAIR / ML QIK% STY P1C CLASS PROJ COND LAST SUS J×T
1 Corporal Paul 13% 7-1 / 4/1 14.6% E 2nd/1w 83 +2.1 831-6 891 855 863 L1▲cls 18% ⚠-2.24∠
2 Inchhighatahundred 1% 99-1 / 2/1 16.4% P 5th/1w 85 +3.3 805-9 844 816 863 D→Trte→spr 17% 5∠
3 Cajun Ami 36% 9-5 / 6/1 21.4% C 7th/1w 86 +4.3 814-8 825 892 807 J+1.2D→T ★VALUE3∠
4 Tonteria 9% 10-1 / 7/2 14.3% S 3rd/1w 81 -0.4 831-6 883 874 825 L3KEY 20% 1∠
5 Titanium Deal 1% 99-1 / 5/1 8.4% EP 4th/3w 82 +0.9 766-13 891 687 961 rte→spr▼cls 5% 1∠
6 Our Determination 2% 50-1 / 12/1 4.3% S 6th/2w 81 -0.1 747-15 726 883 816 D→T 0% 4∠
7 Coattails 38% 8-5 / 8/1 20.5% E 1st/4w 83 +2.1 831-6 911 912 D→T 18% ✓+3.4★PRIME4∠
Pace Projector SPEED DUEL closers favored 1st¼ 23.2s par 23.7 EP/LP
ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 7 HOLDS »»» 106/102 Coattails 1 96/91 Corporal Paul 4 93/104 Tonteria 5 LP »» 91/107 Titanium Deal 2 LP 101/107 Inchhighatahundred 6 » 88/100 Our Determination 3 99/83 Cajun Ami
On the lead: 7, 1 · race sets up for closers
7 Coattails ★ PRIME
4G 120 lbs L E
37.9%
MODEL %
8-5
MODEL FAIR
+26.8
EDGE vs ML
8/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig83 -6 vs par
Needs fits levelbase 90 vs par 89
Class83.4 +2.1 vs race -0.1 gap
MC18.5% fair 9-2
ConfTIGHT σα 0.22
Faced82.9 -0.5 vs today
Pace EP87.7 best 105.6
Pace LP82.2 best 101.7
Energy0.55
≠ Cross-surface α
Connections
JockCasey Fusilierκ 0.07
TrnPaul Duhonκ 0.11
J×T40 · 18% win · 42% ITM
Angles
Casey Fusilier / Paul Duhon 21% -11% First-time turf 10% -26% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26% Paul Duhon: first-time turf 4% -41%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 1530520%91.3
2026 610317%91.3
2025 510120%83.4
EVD 920422%91.3
Turf 0000
Sprint 1530520%91.3
Wet 10010%87.3
WORKS 03-31 EVD 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 58
SIREOne Liner 79 26%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-10 22d EVD 6.5f dirt Fast Clm 85 3 8 2.5 F 81 84 102 91 103 83 1.3 Casey Fusilier
2026-06-18 41d EVD 7.0f dirt Fast Clm 81 1 7 0.0 F 106 84 88 90 103 82 2.9 Casey Fusilier
2026-05-08 20d EVD 7.0f dirt Sloppy (Sealed) Clm 82 3 11 5.0 F 82 nan 72 87 88 82 4.6 Casey Fusilier
2026-04-18 51d·2.3× EVD 6.0f dirt Fast Clm 83 3 9 2.5 F 88 nan 67 88 88 81 5.7 Casey Fusilier
2026-02-26 21d FG 6.0f dirt Fast Clm 84 4 7 8.8 F 106 nan 88 82 77 81 23.0 Timothy Thornton
2026-02-05 244d·11.1× DED 5.0f dirt Fast Clm 84 6 10 6.0 F nan nan 73 86 89 80 17.7 Alex Birzer
2025-06-06 20d EVD 6.0f dirt Fast Clm 80 1 11 0.0 F 93 nan 83 83 88 79 2.5 Casey Fusilier
2025-05-17 21d EVD 6.5f dirt Fast Clm 80 6 8 18.8 F 78 94 116 76 66 80 3.9 Carlos Perez
2025-04-26 84d·3.8× EVD 7.0f dirt Fast Clm 81 5 8 19.8 F 91 93 96 81 84 82 4.0 Casey Fusilier
2025-02-01 DED 7.0f dirt Fast Stk 88 8 8 18.8 F 82 85 95 76 70 83 86.5 Juan Vargas
3 Cajun Ami ★ VALUE
6G 120 lbs L C
36.4%
MODEL %
9-5
MODEL FAIR
+22.1
EDGE vs ML
6/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig81 -8 vs par
Needs +2~31% run that
Class85.6 +4.3 vs race -4.9 gap
MC13.2% fair 7-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.35
Faced84.8 +1.4 vs today
Pace EP80.1 best 99.4
Pace LP76.7 best 83.1
Energy0.52
Connections
JockIsaac Castilloκ 0.13was Javier Hernandez · +1.2
TrnEduardo Ramirezκ 0.24
Angles
Eduardo Ramirez: first-time turf 11% -12% First-time turf 10% -26% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 3256816%94.7
2026 50130%89.1
2025 1222217%94.7
EVD 151427%94.7
Turf 30000%82.1
Sprint 1943421%94.7
Wet 40110%88.2
WORKS 07-24 EVD 4 Furlongs :50.60 B 53 07-17 EVD 4 Furlongs :51.60 B 43 07-10 EVD 5 Furlongs 1:03.80 B 56 04-16 EVD 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 65 04-09 EVD 4 Furlongs :49.80 B 61 04-01 EVD 5 Furlongs 1:03.40 B 67
SIRECongrats 82 59%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-11 28d EVD 7.0f dirt Fast Str Alw 85 5 7 4.2 F 78 84 83 89 94 85 5.2 Javier Hernandez
2026-05-14 20d EVD 8.0f dirt Fast Clm 84 2 8 1.8 99 83 67 85 90 85 3.4 Javier Hernandez
2026-04-24 76d·3.5× EVD 7.0f dirt Fast AOC 86 3 10 12.8 74 72 73 88 96 87 26.9 C.J. McMahon
2026-02-07 22d DED 8.5f dirt Fast Stk 84 3 8 3.8 57 86 71 89 94 86 4.3 Juan Vargas
2026-01-16 17d DED 8.0f dirt Fast Str Alw 85 3 5 4.2 92 nan 80 87 91 86 1.5 Timothy Thornton
2025-12-30 39d DED 7.5f dirt Fast Clm 83 1 7 0.0 F 83 nan 74 91 100 86 1.3 Kevin Roman
2025-11-21 21d DED 8.0f dirt Fast Clm 85 3 7 3.5 S 98 82 65 90 95 86 3.1 Vicente Del-Cid
2025-10-31 9d DED 8.0f dirt Fast Str Alw 84 2 8 2.5 91 82 77 91 95 85 3.0 Timothy Thornton
2025-10-22 60d·2.7× DED 7.5f dirt Fast Clm 82 1 10 0.0 99 87 71 90 92 84 6.9 Timothy Thornton
2025-08-23 EVD 7.5f turf Firm Clm 85 9 10 10.5 81 88 97 82 90 85 22.6 Jansen Melancon
1 Corporal Paul
4G 120 lbs L E
12.6%
MODEL %
7-1
MODEL FAIR
-7.4
EDGE vs ML
4/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig83 -6 vs par
Needs +13~<1% run that
Class83.4 +2.1 vs race -0.1 gap
MC22.1% fair 7-2
ConfNORMAL σα 0.35
Faced84.6 +1.2 vs today
Pace EP80.7 best 96.4
Pace LP85.6 best 91.2
Energy0.54
Connections
JockHarry Hernandezκ 0.1
TrnShane Wilsonκ 0.06
J×T77 · 18% win · 43% ITM
Angles
Harry Hernandez / Shane Wilson 18% -27% Shane Wilson: off layoff (60d+) 14% -41% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 1732118%88.7
2026 620133%88.7
2025 912011%86.1
EVD 811012%86.1
Turf 520040%88.7
Sprint 830038%88.7
Wet 30100%83.2
WORKS 07-25 EVD 4 Furlongs :51.60 B 38 07-17 EVD 4 Furlongs :51.00 B 49 06-19 LAD 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 55
SIREAstrology 80 31%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-01 25d LAD 7.5f turf Firm Clm 80 1 8 0.0 83 97 90 85 88 83 1.1 Harry Hernandez
2026-05-07 33d EVD 8.0f turf Firm AOC 85 10 10 26.2 83 80 91 69 51 84 8.1 Isaac Castillo
2026-04-04 23d EVD 8.0f dirt Sloppy (Sealed) Alw 86 5 5 34.2 70 85 90 73 66 86 13.5 Harry Hernandez
2026-03-12 48d FG 8.318181818181818f dirt Fast AOC 86 3 9 2.2 73 80 88 83 88 85 2.8 Jose Ortiz
2026-01-23 13d FG 7.5f turf Firm Clm 85 1 10 0.0 S 96 88 86 89 96 84 6.7 Paco Lopez
2026-01-10 19d DED 8.0f dirt Fast Alw 84 6 9 8.2 91 88 98 82 84 84 5.8 Vicente Del-Cid
2025-12-22 60d·2.4× DED 8.0f dirt Wet Fast Alw 83 4 9 4.2 nan nan 59 82 85 84 6.7 Isaac Castillo
2025-10-23 55d·2.2× DED 8.0f dirt Fast Alw 84 2 5 0.5 F 93 86 106 84 86 82 11.6 Jose Rodriguez
2025-08-29 21d EVD 8.0f dirt Sloppy (Sealed) Clm 82 2 7 4.8 S 77 76 103 83 85 82 4.8 Jose Rodriguez
2025-08-08 EVD 8.0f turf Firm Clm 82 4 10 1.8 77 78 96 78 79 81 34.3 Jose Rodriguez
4 Tonteria
6G 122 lbs L S
9.3%
MODEL %
10-1
MODEL FAIR
-12.9
EDGE vs ML
7/2
M/L
Form
Proj Fig83 -6 vs par
Needs +10~1% run that
Class80.9 -0.4 vs race +2.1 gap
MC22.9% fair 7-2
ConfTIGHT σα 0.27
Faced82.2 -1.2 vs today
Pace EP80.8 best 93.2
Pace LP86.2 best 104.1
Energy0.52
Connections
JockJuan Vargasκ 0.14
TrnAndy Rogersκ -0.02
J×T5 · 20% win · 40% ITM
Angles
3rd off layoff 14% -22%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 3443712%87.5
2026 310133%87.0
2025 222249%87.5
EVD 60040%87.5
Turf 2133514%87.5
Sprint 911111%87.5
Wet 20000%81.1
WORKS 05-26 CCT 6 Furlongs 1:18.58 B 05-12 CCT 4 Furlongs :54.02 B 04-28 CCT 4 Furlongs :54.07 B 04-14 CCT 4 Furlongs :50.42 B 03-31 CCT 4 Furlongs :50.42 B 03-17 CCT 4 Furlongs :51.90 B
SIREPalace 81 53%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-26 17d EVD 7.5f turf Firm Clm 83 3 10 5.2 S 80 93 85 87 83 80 12.0 Juan Vargas
2026-06-09 138d·8.1× LAD 8.0f turf Firm Clm 80 1 5 0.0 84 83 104 83 85 79 2.6 Juan Vargas
2026-01-22 23d FG 8.0f dirt Fast Clm 82 9 9 34.0 93 81 98 66 56 81 13.0 Paco Lopez
2025-12-30 8d DED 7.5f dirt Fast Clm 83 6 7 16.2 F 76 91 83 78 84 82 14.3 Paco Lopez
2025-12-22 9d DED 8.0f dirt Wet Fast Alw 83 8 9 13.5 74 86 80 73 77 83 20.1 Timothy Thornton
2025-12-13 22d FG 8.0f turf Firm AOC 84 9 11 10.5 84 95 98 84 91 83 48.5 Emanuel Nieves
2025-11-21 8d FG 6.0f dirt Fast Clm 83 5 6 10.0 F 71 94 100 74 68 83 14.4 Marcelino Pedroza, Jr.
2025-11-13 12d DED 7.0f dirt Fast Alw 83 8 9 8.5 93 91 92 75 73 83 43.5 Paulina Ramirez
2025-11-01 22d DED 8.0f dirt Fast (Sealed) Clm 82 7 9 13.0 87 85 99 79 86 85 11.3 Carlos Perez
2025-10-10 DED 7.5f dirt Fast Alw 82 4 10 4.0 103 89 67 79 86 85 8.8 Carlos Perez
6 Our Determination
5G 120 lbs L S
1.6%
MODEL %
50-1
MODEL FAIR
-6.1
EDGE vs ML
12/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig74 -15 vs par
Needs +3~25% run that
Class81.2 -0.1 vs race -6.8 gap
MC3.0% fair 30-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.44
Faced82.8 -0.6 vs today
Pace EP78.1 best 87.7
Pace LP88.7 best 99.5
Energy0.54
Connections
JockCarlos Perezκ 0.04was Jose Rodriguez · +0.1
TrnJuan Sanchezκ 0.16
J×T6 · 0% win · 50% ITM
Angles
Juan Sanchez: first-time turf 12% +6% First-time turf 10% -26% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 2052425%89.5
2026 910111%89.2
2025 721329%89.5
EVD 1121218%89.5
Turf 10000%72.4
Sprint 2052425%89.5
Wet 510220%88.9
WORKS 07-18 EVD 4 Furlongs :54.60 B G 18 03-31 EVD 4 Furlongs :53.40 B G 26 03-05 FG 3 Furlongs :37.20 B G 41
SIREHalf Ours 80 37%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-25 14d EVD 6.5f dirt Fast Clm 82 5 9 4.5 F 68 91 94 88 91 81 11.5 Jose Rodriguez
2026-06-11 27d EVD 7.0f dirt Fast Str Alw 85 6 7 20.0 F 80 83 90 81 77 82 9.3 Isaac Castillo
2026-05-15 14d EVD 7.0f dirt Fast Clm 80 1 10 0.0 F 88 nan 100 88 92 82 3.6 Isaac Castillo
2026-05-01 21d EVD 5.0f dirt Sloppy (Sealed) Clm 81 6 9 3.2 69 88 97 85 81 82 8.9 Javier Hernandez
2026-04-10 29d EVD 6.0f dirt Fast Clm 86 8 8 14.8 F 80 nan 89 84 88 84 34.3 Harry Hernandez
2026-03-12 21d FG 6.0f dirt Fast Clm 86 5 8 6.0 48 84 92 84 84 84 3.6 Isaac Castillo
2026-02-19 21d FG 5.5f dirt Fast Clm 86 3 8 1.0 F 92 82 84 89 93 83 8.6 Edwin Gonzalez
2026-01-29 18d FG 6.0f dirt Fast Clm 86 5 6 8.2 90 92 61 84 83 84 25.7 Jamison Mudd
2026-01-11 149d·7.1× FG 5.0f turf Good Clm 84 8 8 12.2 F 90 90 98 72 74 85 29.4 C.J. McMahon
2025-08-15 EVD 6.5f dirt Sloppy (Sealed) AOC 87 7 7 19.5 F 93 90 87 81 74 87 4.5 Jansen Melancon
2 Inchhighatahundred
5G 120 lbs L P
1.2%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-32.1
EDGE vs ML
2/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig80 -9 vs par
Needs +7~4% run that
Class84.6 +3.3 vs race -4.1 gap
MC15.2% fair 6-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.32
Faced84.5 +1.1 vs today
Pace EP86.0 best 101.0
Pace LP85.6 best 107.3
Energy0.54
Connections
JockColby Hernandezκ 0.02
TrnSamuel Breauxκ 0.07
J×T77 · 17% win · 52% ITM
Angles
Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23% Samuel Breaux: first-time turf 15% -13% Colby Hernandez / Samuel Breaux 12% -41% First-time turf 10% -26% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 2735411%86.4
2026 60220%86.4
2025 111219%84.3
EVD 151337%85.1
Turf 50020%84.3
Sprint 1322015%86.3
Wet 712114%83.8
WORKS 06-26 EVD 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 63 03-21 EVD 4 Furlongs :53.40 B 33
SIREDaaher 83 79%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-04 30d EVD 8.0f dirt Sloppy (Sealed) Alw 85 7 7 20.2 S 92 81 81 81 82 87 3.7 Colby Hernandez
2026-06-04 28d EVD 8.0f dirt Sloppy (Sealed) Alw 83 2 9 0.1 78 86 98 84 90 86 1.6 Colby Hernandez
2026-05-07 26d EVD 8.0f turf Firm AOC 85 3 10 2.5 86 88 88 81 72 85 27.1 Colby Hernandez
2026-04-11 37d EVD 8.0f dirt Fast Alw 84 3 9 5.8 S 92 93 107 85 87 85 2.2 Colby Hernandez
2026-03-05 34d FG 8.0f dirt Fast Alw 85 2 8 9.0 F 101 nan 70 86 96 85 21.8 Colby Hernandez
2026-01-30 39d DED 7.5f dirt Fast Alw 85 5 7 5.5 92 nan 90 86 91 85 2.2 Vicente Del-Cid
2025-12-22 39d DED 8.0f dirt Wet Fast Alw 83 3 9 2.5 89 88 51 82 87 85 3.2 Vicente Del-Cid
2025-11-13 34d DED 7.0f dirt Fast Alw 83 6 9 6.5 95 89 100 79 75 85 5.6 Elio Barrera
2025-10-10 48d DED 7.5f dirt Fast Alw 82 2 10 0.5 86 91 86 84 89 84 5.2 Elio Barrera
2025-08-23 EVD 7.5f turf Firm Clm 85 8 10 7.8 80 86 87 84 92 84 17.8 Joel Dominguez
5 Titanium Deal
5G 120 lbs L EP
1.1%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-15.6
EDGE vs ML
5/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig76 -13 vs par
Needs +17~<1% run that
Class82.2 +0.9 vs race -6.0 gap
MC5.1% fair 20-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.27
Faced85.3 +1.9 vs today
Pace EP83.8 best 90.9
Pace LP88.8 best 106.7
Energy0.53
Connections
JockEdward Santiagoκ -0.05
TrnRussell Richardκ -0.19
J×T19 · 5% win · 32% ITM
Angles
Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 3145013%89.0
2026 60100%81.7
2025 1221017%87.0
EVD 1622012%85.9
Turf 1132027%89.0
Sprint 1423014%89.0
Wet 510020%83.8
WORKS 03-28 EVD 4 Furlongs :50.80 B 56
SIREEl Deal 81 47%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-03 14d EVD 8.0f turf Firm AOC 86 11 11 22.8 S 91 94 100 68 57 83 38.1 Edward Santiago
2026-06-19 43d·2.0× EVD 8.0f dirt Fast AOC 85 9 9 33.5 S 78 nan 91 73 69 85 27.6 Edward Santiago
2026-05-07 21d EVD 8.0f turf Firm AOC 85 8 10 10.8 85 95 93 76 64 85 2.7 Edward Santiago
2026-04-16 77d·3.7× EVD 8.0f turf Firm AOC 84 2 12 0.1 86 94 107 82 90 84 6.5 Edward Santiago
2026-01-29 13d FG 8.0f turf Good AOC 86 8 10 7.2 S 91 86 79 78 80 83 18.7 Devin Magnon
2026-01-16 34d DED 8.0f dirt Fast Str Alw 85 5 5 17.8 94 nan 84 76 79 84 15.2 Jansen Melancon
2025-12-13 21d FG 8.0f turf Firm AOC 86 7 8 10.2 F 99 nan 83 85 95 84 23.1 Emanuel Nieves
2025-11-22 61d·2.9× FG 8.0f turf Firm AOC 85 10 12 13.5 F 85 92 92 79 92 84 11.7 Emanuel Nieves
2025-09-22 21d LAD 8.0f turf Firm AOC 84 1 8 0.0 97 102 105 87 94 82 2.2 Emanuel Nieves
2025-09-01 EVD 8.0f turf Firm Clm 81 1 7 0.0 91 85 86 86 90 81 1.7 Jose Rodriguez