EVD 2026-08-01 · US Racing

TRACKS · 2026-08-01

CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO

▸ How to read a horse block

MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σ_α. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.

R1 D R2 D R3 T R4 D R5 T R6 D R7 T R8 D R9 D

Purse $19,000. Seven Furlongs. (Includes $7,800 – Other Sources) (Plus $5,000 – ALBSS-Accredited LA Bred Slot Supplement). For Three Year Olds And Upward Which Have Never Won Three Races. Three Year Olds, 121 Lbs.; Older, 124 Lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since July 1, 2026 Allowed 2 Lbs. Claiming Price $20,000, For Each $2,500 To $15,000 2 Lbs.

TODAY'S CONTENDERS		WIN% · FAIR / ML	QIK%	STY	P1C	CLASS	PROJ	COND	LAST	SUS	J×T
1	Outlaw Empire	10% 9-1 / 15/1	7.0%	EP	2nd/1w	82 +1.8	86⁴-2	88⁵	87²	89³	L3★goldJ-1.4▲cls	27%	LS3∠
2	Pineapple Willy ✓	8% 12-1 / 3/1	14.7%	S	6th/1w	84 +3.2	88³+0	90³	86⁵	95¹	J+0.7▼cls	—	✓+1.71∠
3	The Monopoly Man	5% 20-1 / 8/1	7.1%	P	1st/1w	82 +1.6	82⁹-6	84⁸	78⁹	80⁸	L1	11%	3∠
4	Motor City	24% 3-1 / 2/1	25.3%	S	7th/1w	86 +5.2	90²+2	91²	90¹	82⁶	▼cls	57%	✓+4.51∠
5	Guns ✓	6% 15-1 / 6/1	9.1%	S	9th/1w	83 +2.9	86⁴-2	86⁷	87²	—	L3★goldT→Drte→spr	16%	4∠
6	Dixie Doctor	11% 8-1 / 12/1	7.8%	P	4th/1w	81 +0.1	85⁷-3	87⁶	87²	83⁵	★goldrte→spr▲cls▲slo-close	—	✓+1.2
7	Bergen	8% 12-1 / 4/1	12.4%	S	5th/2w	89 +8.2	92¹+4	94¹	81⁸	82⁶	L1J+0.9T→Drte→spr▼cls	30%	✓+1.75∠
8	War Mule ✓	20% 4-1 / 15/1	11.0%	P	3rd/3w	85 +4.1	85⁷-3	90³	86⁵	85⁴	★gold	21%	⚠-2.3LS1∠
9	Formulate	8% 12-1 / 20/1	5.6%	S	8th/3w	86 +5.8	86⁴-2	—	85⁷	91²	L2rte→spr▲slo-close	0%	LS3∠

Pace Projector SPEED DUEL (3+) closers favored 1st¼ 22.8s par 23.2 EP/LP

ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 3 90/88 The Monopoly Man 1 93/103 Outlaw Empire 8 LP ⚡ »» 99/113 War Mule 6 95/99 Dixie Doctor 7 » 95/89 Bergen 2 107/105 Pineapple Willy 4 96/102 Motor City 9 »» 93/106 Formulate 5 95/107 Guns

On the lead: 3, 1, 8 · race sets up for closers

4 Motor City

5G 122 lbs L S

24.4%

MODEL %

3-1

MODEL FAIR

-8.9

EDGE vs ML

2/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig90 +2 vs par

Needs fits levelbase 90 vs par 88

Class85.7 +5.2 vs race +4.0 gap

MC27.1% fair 5-2

ConfTIGHT σα 0.22

Faced85.3 +1.6 vs today

Pace EP82.9 best 96.2

Pace LP82.1 best 102.1

Energy0.53

Connections

JockHarry Hernandezκ 0.1was Thomas Pompell · -0.2

TrnBrett Brinkmanκ 0.1

J×T7 · 57% win · 57% ITM

Angles

Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	17	2	3	4	12%	93.2
2026	4	0	1	0	0%	90.6
2025	7	1	0	2	14%	90.8
EVD	7	0	2	1	0%	90.8
Dirt	17	2	3	4	12%	93.2
Sprint	17	2	3	4	12%	93.2
Wet	4	0	1	1	0%	91.5

WORKS 06-26 EVD 3 Furlongs :37.00 B 46

SIREMo Town 83 77%ile turf 15%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-03 56d	EVD	7.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	86	4	6	3.8	F	96	81	69	90	97	85	9.3	Thomas Pompell
2026-05-08 14d	EVD	7.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	Clm	84	2	7	3.5	F	82	nan	68	90	93	85	1.1	Thomas Pompell
2026-04-24 21d	EVD	7.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	86	4	10	14.0		91	82	102	89	94	87	12.3	Thomas Pompell
2026-04-03 102d·2.6×	EVD	5.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	85	5	9	3.8	F	78	93	91	91	90	86	9.4	Thomas Pompell
2025-12-22 39d	DED	5.0f	dirt	Wet Fast	Alw	84	4	8	1.5	F	75	96	86	90	92	86	4.2	Vicente Del-Cid
2025-11-13 33d	DED	5.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	86	5	10	2.5	F	86	97	84	90	92	86	19.7	Vicente Del-Cid
2025-10-11 106d·2.7×	DED	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Alw	84	1	7	0.0		81	85	100	88	83	85	1.6	Vicente Del-Cid
2025-06-27 21d	EVD	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Alw	85	4	6	5.8		79	97	92	89	89	85	7.6	Thomas Pompell
2025-06-06 106d·2.7×	EVD	6.5f	dirt	Fast	AOC	84	3	6	3.0	F	96	82	86	91	96	84	5.7	Thomas Pompell
2025-02-20	DED	5.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	85	3	8	4.0		89	nan	81	91	86	84	6.1	Thomas Pompell

8 War Mule LONGSHOT

4G 122 lbs L P

20.2%

MODEL %

4-1

MODEL FAIR

+13.9

EDGE vs ML

15/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig85 -3 vs par

Needs +6~6% run that

Class84.6 +4.1 vs race +0.5 gap

MC7.2% fair 12-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.29

Faced85.4 +1.7 vs today

Pace EP85.7 best 99.2

Pace LP87.7 best 113.4

Energy0.55

Connections

JockC.J. McMahonκ 0.02

TrnW. Calhounκ 0.29

J×T140 · 21% win · 47% ITM

Angles

C.J. McMahon / W. Calhoun 20% -18%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	9	2	1	1	22%	91.3
2026	3	1	0	0	33%	85.8
2025	5	0	1	1	0%	91.3
EVD	2	1	0	0	50%	85.8
Dirt	8	2	1	1	25%	91.3
Sprint	9	2	1	1	22%	91.3
Wet	1	1	0	0	100%	84.5

WORKS 07-07 CCT 4 Furlongs :52.11 B 34 06-30 CCT 4 Furlongs :51.26 B 03-10 CCT 4 Furlongs :51.99 B

SIREArmy Mule 84 86%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-11 48d	EVD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	82	1	7	0.0	F	83	91	87	86	89	84	1.2	C.J. McMahon
2026-04-24 40d	EVD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	86	7	8	13.2		84	92	68	83	79	86	7.1	C.J. McMahon
2026-03-15 113d	HOU	5.0f	turf	Firm	Alw	84	8	9	14.0	F	91	nan	106	76	80	88	12.1	Jose Alvarez
2025-11-22 142d	RP	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Alw	89	5	7	10.0	F	88	99	113	90	90	90	4.1	David Cabrera
2025-07-03 75d	LS	6.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	85	2	7	2.2		99	96	87	89	84	91	3.9	David Cabrera
2025-04-19 13d	OP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	90	6	11	6.0	F	82	nan	83	90	90	90	9.8	Ramon Vazquez
2025-04-06 21d	OP	6.0f	dirt	Good	Stk	89	8	8	20.5		101	81	66	80	58	94	1.7	Cristian Torres
2025-03-16 77d	OP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	88	3	12	3.5	F	75	87	90	91	93	93	13.0	Martin Garcia
2024-12-29	OP	6.0f	dirt	Muddy (Sealed)	MSW	88	1	11	0.0	F	85	89	86	84	70	88	4.1	Cristian Torres

6 Dixie Doctor

4G 117 lbs L P

10.6%

MODEL %

8-1

MODEL FAIR

+2.9

EDGE vs ML

12/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig85 -3 vs par

Needs +3~22% run that

Class80.6 +0.1 vs race +4.8 gap

MC8.4% fair 10-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.2

Faced81.2 -2.5 vs today

Pace EP82.9 best 95.5

Pace LP85.0 best 98.6

Energy0.53

Connections

JockMisael Alvarezκ 0.06was Harry Hernandez · -0.4

TrnAntonio Albertoκ 0.06

Record

	Sts	1st	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	8	2	3	25%	88.7
2026	5	1	3	20%	88.7
2025	3	1	0	33%	86.4
EVD	3	0	2	0%	86.8
Dirt	8	2	3	25%	88.7
Sprint	2	0	1	0%	86.8
Wet	1	0	1	0%	86.8

SIREThe Factor 83 74%ile turf 14%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-05 28d	EVD	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	81	3	8	0.5	S	72	nan	94	87	94	79	4.0	Harry Hernandez
2026-05-08 22d	EVD	7.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	Clm	84	3	7	6.2	F	83	75	73	87	90	78	29.5	Joel Dominguez
2026-04-16 77d·2.8×	EVD	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	82	7	10	15.8	F	87	100	99	82	85	80	12.2	Kevin Roman
2026-01-29 28d	FG	8.318181818181818f	dirt	Fast	Clm	80	3	8	8.8	S	96	84	84	87	84	80	2.3	Hunter Rea
2026-01-01 21d	FG	8.318181818181818f	dirt	Fast	Clm	80	1	6	0.0	S	86	nan	90	89	88	76	4.0	Hunter Rea
2025-12-11 21d	FG	8.318181818181818f	dirt	Fast	Clm	78	6	8	17.0	S	90	92	82	84	73	79	1.3	Jose Ortiz
2025-11-20 62d·2.2×	FG	8.318181818181818f	dirt	Fast	Clm	79	4	10	11.5	S	100	96	78	86	84	80	6.0	Mitchell Murrill
2025-09-19	BTP	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	75	1	6	0.0	S	79	89	106	86	86	75	5.6	Jose Bracho

1 Outlaw Empire LONGSHOT

3G 119 lbs L EP

10.3%

MODEL %

9-1

MODEL FAIR

+4.1

EDGE vs ML

15/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig86 -2 vs par

Needs +1~40% run that

Class82.3 +1.8 vs race +3.9 gap

MC5.5% fair 15-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.22

Faced82.6 -1.1 vs today

Pace EP84.0 best 92.7

Pace LP86.7 best 103.5

Energy0.54

Connections

JockTimothy Thorntonκ -0.01was Jose Alvarez · -1.4

TrnW. Calhounκ 0.29

J×T71 · 27% win · 65% ITM

Angles

Timothy Thornton / W. Calhoun 28% -6% 3yo, 3rd off layoff 15% -21% 3rd off layoff 14% -22%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	10	2	1	20%	89.9
2026	5	2	0	40%	88.5
2025	5	0	1	0%	89.9
EVD	0	0	0	—	—
Dirt	9	2	1	22%	89.9
Sprint	7	2	0	29%	88.5
Wet	1	0	0	0%	83.4

WORKS 07-21 CCT Four Furlongs 51.42 b 46 05-30 LS 4 Furlongs :50.26 B 53 05-19 LS 4 Furlongs :47.18 B 82 05-10 LS 4 Furlongs :50.46 B 48 04-25 LS 4 Furlongs :50.22 B 49 03-29 KEE 3 Furlongs :36.40 B 47

SIREClassic Empire 84 87%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-27 21d	LS	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	81	1	8	0.0		74	98	104	87	83	81	3.1	Jose Alvarez
2026-06-06 92d·2.6×	LS	6.5f	dirt	Good	Alw	86	5	5	17.8	F	89	62	67	87	81	83	4.4	Jose Alvarez
2026-03-06 22d	FG	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	78	1	8	0.0	F	88	89	95	88	96	83	7.6	Brian Hernandez, Jr.
2026-02-12 39d	FG	8.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	83	6	6	6.2		88	81	92	77	82	84	5.1	Brian Hernandez, Jr.
2026-01-04 46d	FG	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn	85	7	8	13.5	F	93	98	96	84	82	87	6.7	Brian Hernandez, Jr.
2025-11-19 32d	CD	6.0f	dirt	Muddy (Sealed)	MSW	87	8	10	12.0	S	72	91	98	83	64	88	6.89	Brian Hernandez, Jr.
2025-10-18 21d	KEE	8.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	86	4	11	6.8		93	86	91	90	84	89	7.32	Edgar Morales
2025-09-27 36d	CD	8.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	84	2	6	0.1		76	89	106	89	89	88	2.43	Edgar Morales
2025-08-22 61d	ELP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	88	6	11	8.8		85	77	94	88	83	89	31.0	Gabriel Saez
2025-06-22	CD	5.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	87	5	8	4.5	F	66	89	87	87	80	87	33.99	Brian Hernandez, Jr.

9 Formulate LONGSHOT

4G 119 lbs L S

8.3%

MODEL %

12-1

MODEL FAIR

+3.5

EDGE vs ML

20/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig86 -2 vs par

Needs +3~25% run that

Class86.3 +5.8 vs race -0.6 gap

MC9.6% fair 9-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.38

Faced87.1 +3.4 vs today

Pace EP83.7 best 92.7

Pace LP82.9 best 105.9

Energy0.50

Connections

JockJuan Vargasκ 0.14

TrnEmile Schwandtκ 0.0

J×T6 · 0% win · 0% ITM

Angles

Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23% 2nd off layoff 13% -27% Emile Schwandt: 2nd off layoff 13% -17%

Record

	Sts	1st	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	6	2	1	33%	92.8
2026	1	0	0	0%	84.8
2025	3	1	1	33%	92.8
EVD	1	0	0	0%	84.8
Dirt	2	1	0	50%	92.8
Sprint	0	0	0	—	—
Wet	1	0	0	0%	84.8

WORKS 06-27 EVD 4 Furlongs :52.00 B G 39 06-20 EVD 4 Furlongs :50.40 B 60 05-30 EVD 4 Furlongs :51.20 B 48 05-15 EVD 4 Furlongs :50.80 B 47

SIRECopper Bullet 84 86%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-04 398d·9.5×	EVD	8.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	Alw	85	5	7	14.5	S	76	95	106	85	87	89	11.6	Juan Vargas
2025-06-01 23d	GP	8.0f	turf	Firm	Str Alw	88	6	7	6.2	S	91	81	66	80	76	89	8.4	Edwin Gonzalez
2025-05-09 42d	GP	8.5f	synthetic	Fast	Alw	89	3	5	6.2		88	nan	78	89	87	90	4.1	Paco Lopez
2025-03-28 146d·3.5×	GP	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Str Alw	86	1	7	0.0	S	82	91	87	93	92	87	1.8	Edwin Gonzalez
2024-11-02 41d	GP	8.0f	turf	Good	Stk	88	8	10	10.2	S	93	nan	87	84	76	87	7.0	Emisael Jaramillo
2024-09-22	GP	8.318181818181818f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	82	1	7	0.0	S	93	80	81	93	89	82	1.5	Edwin Gonzalez

7 Bergen

5H 122 lbs L S

7.8%

MODEL %

12-1

MODEL FAIR

-12.2

EDGE vs ML

4/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig92 +4 vs par

Needs fits levelbase 89 vs par 88

Class88.7 +8.2 vs race +2.8 gap

MC21.9% fair 7-2

ConfTIGHT σα 0.3

Faced90.3 +6.6 vs today

Pace EP83.8 best 95.1

Pace LP83.3 best 89.5

Energy0.52

Connections

JockIsaac Castilloκ 0.13was Floyd Wethey Jr. · +0.9

TrnRobertino Diodoroκ 0.37

J×T40 · 30% win · 52% ITM

Angles

Isaac Castillo / Robertino Diodoro 33% +26% Robertino Diodoro: off layoff (60d+) 25% -16% Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23% Turf-to-dirt 14% -27% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	14	2	3	1	14%	95.3
2026	3	0	0	0	0%	94.1
2025	6	0	2	1	0%	92.0
EVD	0	0	0	0	—	—
Dirt	10	2	2	1	20%	95.3
Sprint	11	2	2	1	18%	95.3
Wet	2	1	0	0	50%	95.2

WORKS 07-25 LAD 5 Furlongs 1:02.00 B 58 07-18 LAD 5 Furlongs 1:02.00 B G 59 07-09 LAD 5 Furlongs 1:01.30 B 72 ◆Flame Mcgoon·93 06-29 LAD 5 Furlongs 1:03.20 B 48 ★06-21 LAD 5 Furlongs 1:00.40 B 80 06-01 LAD 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 50

SIRELiam'S Map 85 91%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-03-01 15d	HOU	8.0f	turf	Firm	Alw	87	7	7	11.2		76	88	86	81	83	91	4.3	Floyd Wethey Jr.
2026-02-14 30d	FG	6.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	91	6	10	7.8	F	95	nan	80	90	96	91	22.3	Isaac Castillo
2026-01-15 46d	FG	6.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	91	4	9	3.8		91	80	83	94	97	91	8.4	Harry Hernandez
2025-11-30 22d	CD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	91	2	9	3.5	F	85	89	87	90	94	91	1.88	Irad Ortiz, Jr.
2025-11-08 22d	AQU	6.0f	turf	Firm	AOC	92	4	9	2.2	F	83	68	90	88	100	90	4.46	Manuel Franco
2025-10-17 76d·2.2×	KEE	5.5f	turf	Firm	Alw	92	7	10	5.8	F	74	90	108	87	88	89	2.76	Luis Saez
2025-08-02 35d	SAR	5.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	93	2	10	2.8	F	92	80	70	91	98	92	14.9	Luis Saez
2025-06-28 133d·3.8×	BAQ	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	90	3	5	1.5	F	91	96	102	89	96	92	2.6	Manuel Franco
2025-02-15 294d·8.4×	LRL	6.0f	dirt	Good (Sealed)	AOC	90	4	9	2.2	S	81	83	100	92	84	92	2.4	Sheldon Russell
2024-04-27	OP	6.0f	dirt	Good	Stk	92	5	7	8.8		90	nan	86	95	91	92	3.2	Axel Concepcion

2 Pineapple Willy

3G 116 lbs L S

7.6%

MODEL %

12-1

MODEL FAIR

-17.4

EDGE vs ML

3/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig88 0 vs par

Needs fits levelbase 88 vs par 88

Class83.7 +3.2 vs race +3.9 gap

MC8.4% fair 10-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.26

Faced81.2 -2.5 vs today

Pace EP84.0 best 107.5

Pace LP82.2 best 104.8

Energy0.54

Connections

JockJansen Melanconκ 0.02was Alexis Batista · +0.7

TrnAlbert Journet, Jr.κ -0.01

Angles

Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23%

Record

	Sts	1st	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	7	2	1	29%	90.2
2026	4	2	0	50%	90.2
2025	3	0	1	0%	89.4
EVD	4	2	0	50%	90.2
Dirt	7	2	1	29%	90.2
Sprint	7	2	1	29%	90.2
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-22 EVD 4 Furlongs :53.20 B 25 06-20 EVD 5 Furlongs 1:02.80 B 73 05-08 EVD 5 Furlongs 1:02.20 B 72 03-24 CCT 4 Furlongs :51.04 H G 03-17 CCT 4 Furlongs :50.59 B 03-10 CCT 4 Furlongs :49.67 B

SIREEl Deal 81 47%ile turf 14%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-02 27d	EVD	6.5f	dirt	Fast	AOC	86	6	7	8.2	F	108	82	82	86	86	83	13.9	Alexis Batista
2026-06-05 14d	EVD	7.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	86	4	6	10.2	F	60	91	86	88	94	83	16.5	C.J. McMahon
2026-05-22 35d	EVD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	81	1	7	0.0	F	84	89	105	89	86	81	0.6	Jansen Melancon
2026-04-17 135d·5.0×	EVD	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	78	1	12	0.0	F	91	nan	62	90	88	80	2.8	Jansen Melancon
2025-12-03 26d	DED	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	75	5	8	7.2		90	88	82	81	64	82	0.3	Jansen Melancon
2025-11-07 27d	DED	5.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	81	3	9	9.2	F	84	84	106	89	86	85	1.7	Jansen Melancon
2025-10-11	DED	5.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	81	4	9	3.0	F	56	64	89	89	78	81	1.7	Carlos Lozada

5 Guns

4G 118 lbs L S

6.0%

MODEL %

15-1

MODEL FAIR

-8.3

EDGE vs ML

6/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig86 -2 vs par

Needs +2~30% run that

Class83.4 +2.9 vs race +2.4 gap

MC9.2% fair 10-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.25

Faced81.1 -2.6 vs today

Pace EP83.7 best 95.2

Pace LP84.0 best 107.0

Energy0.52

Connections

JockCasey Fusilierκ 0.07

TrnAllen Landryκ 0.31

J×T215 · 16% win · 51% ITM

Angles

Casey Fusilier / Allen Landry 18% -11% Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23% 3rd off layoff 14% -22% Turf-to-dirt 14% -27%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	14	2	4	5	14%	87.1
2026	5	1	2	1	20%	87.1
2025	7	1	2	4	14%	82.8
EVD	3	1	1	0	33%	87.1
Dirt	13	2	4	5	15%	86.3
Sprint	9	2	3	3	22%	86.3
Wet	2	0	1	0	0%	81.3

WORKS ★07-10 EVD 5 Furlongs 1:02.00 B 76 06-27 EVD 4 Furlongs :49.60 B 64 05-30 EVD 5 Furlongs 1:04.60 B 51 05-23 EVD 4 Furlongs :49.80 B 61 03-20 EVD 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 62

SIREGun Runner 89 97%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-17 34d	EVD	8.0f	turf	Firm	Alw	84	7	7	4.8		—	—	—	87	86	83	10.7	Casey Fusilier
2026-06-13 71d·2.4×	EVD	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	81	1	7	0.0	F	95	84	57	86	91	82	2.5	Casey Fusilier
2026-04-03 49d	EVD	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	80	2	9	4.2	F	95	92	83	84	87	82	1.4	Joel Dominguez
2026-02-13 29d	DED	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	80	2	10	0.1		81	97	91	84	83	81	6.9	Joel Dominguez
2026-01-15 29d	DED	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	80	3	8	1.5		73	101	107	84	89	80	2.9	Joel Dominguez
2025-12-17 22d	DED	7.0f	dirt	Muddy (Sealed)	Clm	78	2	9	4.2		86	88	94	81	87	79	1.8	Elvin Gonzalez
2025-11-25 60d·2.1×	DED	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	78	3	9	2.5	S	88	79	67	79	72	78	3.0	Jansen Melancon
2025-09-26 14d	PRM	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	75	1	9	0.0		94	91	89	80	81	78	2.5	Elvin Gonzalez
2025-09-12 14d	PRM	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	76	3	7	4.2		89	nan	69	80	79	78	2.2	Elvin Gonzalez
2025-08-29	PRM	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	77	3	5	4.2		95	86	56	79	77	77	8.1	Kevin Roman

3 The Monopoly Man

5H 122 lbs L P

4.9%

MODEL %

20-1

MODEL FAIR

-6.2

EDGE vs ML

8/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig82 -6 vs par

Needs +7~4% run that

Class82.1 +1.6 vs race -0.1 gap

MC2.8% fair 30-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.28

Faced82.8 -0.9 vs today

Pace EP83.2 best 90.4

Pace LP81.5 best 88.2

Energy0.54

Connections

JockElio Barreraκ 0.12

TrnKearney Seguraκ 0.02

J×T90 · 11% win · 37% ITM

Angles

Elio Barrera / Kearney Segura 13% +6% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% Kearney Segura: off layoff (60d+) 5% -45%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	20	2	6	6	10%	94.1
2026	3	1	0	0	33%	84.3
2025	8	0	3	4	0%	90.1
EVD	4	0	2	1	0%	88.0
Dirt	20	2	6	6	10%	94.1
Sprint	15	1	5	5	7%	94.0
Wet	3	1	0	0	33%	93.6

WORKS 07-15 EVD 4 Furlongs :53.20 B 26 07-01 EVD 4 Furlongs :49.80 B 56 06-12 EVD 4 Furlongs :50.80 B 52 05-28 EVD 4 Furlongs :50.80 B 55 04-23 EVD 4 Furlongs :50.60 B 47 04-09 EVD 5 Furlongs 1:05.40 B 44

SIREThe Big Beast 83 79%ile turf 14%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-05-08 76d·2.1×	EVD	7.0f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	Clm	84	7	7	25.0	F	84	nan	76	78	71	84	5.2	Elio Barrera
2026-02-21 31d	DED	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	81	1	9	0.0		83	80	87	84	89	83	2.5	Vicente Del-Cid
2026-01-21 68d	DED	6.5f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	Alw	85	5	8	15.0		86	82	82	81	80	85	27.0	Carlos Perez
2025-11-14 22d	DED	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	81	2	8	3.0		90	94	88	83	84	85	6.1	Elio Barrera
2025-10-23 75d·2.1×	DED	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	82	6	10	9.0		82	nan	79	78	74	86	1.8	Vicente Del-Cid
2025-08-09 36d	EVD	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	83	3	8	7.0	F	79	89	106	85	86	87	2.0	Jansen Melancon
2025-07-04 15d	EVD	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	80	2	6	0.8		74	78	73	88	96	88	0.9	Jansen Melancon
2025-06-19 102d·2.8×	EVD	5.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	83	2	6	2.5	F	77	82	86	86	82	88	1.7	Jansen Melancon
2025-03-09 9d	AQU	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	87	3	6	7.0		87	67	64	84	81	89	1.8	Manuel Franco
2025-02-28	AQU	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	89	3	7	4.0	S	87	nan	82	90	86	89	3.05	Manuel Franco