TRACKS · 2026-08-01
CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO
ALL CARDS ↗
▸ How to read a horse block
MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σα. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.
R1 T R2 D R3 T R4 D R5 T R6 D R7 T R8 D R9 T R10 D R11 T
R1 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
DMR 2026-08-01 Five Furlongs TURF
87
strength
+4.3 salty
90
win par
fig to beat
SPEED DUEL
shape
closers favored
FAST
early pace
1st¼ 21.6s / par 22.1
TOP-HEAVY
field
figs 77.1–89.2
Purse $80,000. Five Furlongs. (Turf) (Rail at 12 Feet) For California Bred Or California Sired Maidens, Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward. Three Year Olds, 120 Lbs.; Older, 124 Lbs. (Non-Starters For A Claiming Price Of $40,000 Or Less In The Last 3 Starts Preferred)(Winning Owner to Receive $15,000 From CTBA). .
TODAY'S CONTENDERS WIN% · FAIR / ML QIK% STY P1C CLASS PROJ COND LAST SUS J×T
1 Let It Begin 1% 99-1 / 8/1 5.7% EP 1st/1w 84 +1.9 778-13 746 747 865 L1T-2.1 17% ⚠-4.53∠
2 Sacred Sound 84% 1-5 / 5/2 47.6% EP 2nd/1w 87 +4.3 891-1 901 901 1012 L3★gold▲cls 25% ⚠-1.2★PRIME2∠
3 Balaza 2% 50-1 / 4/1 10.5% S 8th/1w 88 +5.2 873-3 843 815 1061 L1 16% ⚠-1.55∠
4 Unusual Exchange 0% 99-1 / 10/1 4.6% P 3rd/1w 79 -3.3 857-5 — 815 826 J+0.8D→T▲cls 10% 4∠
5 Platinum Groove 0% 99-1 / 8/1 5.4% 6th/1w — 873-3 — — — 19% 2∠
6 Maggles McGee 8% 12-1 / 3/1 15.3% P 4th/2w 89 +6.3 891-1 872 842 767 L1J+0.7rte→spr 27% 3∠
7 Sissy Girl 2% 50-1 / 8/1 6.3% 5th/3w 86 +3.2 865-4 835 834 903 J+0.5▲cls 12% 2∠
8 Mia Pia 2% 50-1 / 12/1 4.4% P 7th/3w 87 +4.3 865-4 843 842 884 L1 0% 2∠
Pace Projector SPEED DUEL closers favored 1st¼ 21.6s par 22.1 EP/LP
ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 1 ⚡ 86/102 Let It Begin 2 ⚡ 98/110 Sacred Sound 4 78/86 Unusual Exchange 6 » 95/98 Maggles McGee 7 »» 91/90 Sissy Girl 5 Platinum Groove 8 »» 102/105 Mia Pia 3 C★ 94/117 Balaza
On the lead: 1, 2 · race sets up for closers
2 Sacred Sound ★ PRIME
4F 124 lbs L EP
84.5%
MODEL %
1-5
MODEL FAIR
+55.9
EDGE vs ML
5/2
M/L
Form
Proj Fig89 -1 vs par
Needs +5~10% run that
Class86.6 +4.3 vs race +2.6 gap
MC28.3% fair 5-2
ConfTIGHT σα 0.3
Faced85.3 -1.3 vs today
Pace EP88.1 best 97.5
Pace LP80.1 best 109.7
Energy0.52
Connections
JockJuan Hernandezκ 0.24
TrnPeter Millerκ 0.44
J×T95 · 25% win · 53% ITM
Angles
Juan Hernandez / Peter Miller 22% -4% 3rd off layoff 14% -22%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 50010%89.8
2026 20010%89.8
2025 30000%82.3
DMR 20000%82.3
Turf 40010%89.8
Sprint 50010%89.8
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-27 DMR 4 Furlongs :47.60 H G 68 ★07-16 DMR 5 Furlongs :59.80 H 82 ◆Gallatin·94 07-10 SLR 5 Furlongs 1:02.20 H 47 07-04 SLR 4 Furlongs :49.00 H 52 06-27 SLR 4 Furlongs :49.00 H 54 06-20 SLR 4 Furlongs :51.20 H 30
SIREOm 81 55%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-12 21d SA 5.0f turf Firm MSW 84 3 8 1.5 93 95 110 90 85 86 5.6 Juan Hernandez
2026-05-22 271d·9.3× SA 6.0f turf Firm MSW 87 5 8 8.0 98 92 64 84 73 86 9.8 Joel Rosario
2025-08-24 21d DMR 5.0f turf Firm MSW 85 5 10 2.2 97 83 87 82 73 83 6.2 David Cohen
2025-08-03 29d DMR 5.0f turf Firm MSW 86 4 11 4.2 94 77 61 82 76 76 10.5 David Cohen
2025-07-05 LRC 6.5f dirt Fast MSW 86 6 6 23.0 F 83 nan 79 74 59 84 21.6 Ricardo Gonzalez
6 Maggles McGee
3F 120 lbs L P
8.0%
MODEL %
12-1
MODEL FAIR
-17.0
EDGE vs ML
3/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig89 -1 vs par
Needs +6~6% run that
Class88.6 +6.3 vs race +0.4 gap
MC14.1% fair 6-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.23
Faced85.8 -0.8 vs today
Pace EP82.2 best 95.2
Pace LP85.3 best 98.3
Energy0.51
Connections
JockUmberto Rispoliκ 0.21was Florent Geroux · +0.7
TrnGeorge Papaprodromouκ 0.41
J×T89 · 27% win · 53% ITM
Angles
Umberto Rispoli / George Papaprodromou 23% -15% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% George Papaprodromou: off layoff (60d+) 12% -22%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 40300%87.2
2026 40300%87.2
2025 0000——
DMR 0000——
Turf 40300%87.2
Sprint 20200%87.2
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-26 DMR 4 Furlongs :52.80 H 8 07-20 SLR 5 Furlongs :59.60 H 80 07-13 SLR 5 Furlongs 1:00.40 H 76 07-04 SLR 5 Furlongs :59.40 H 90 ◆Donttellmewhattodo·92 06-27 SLR 4 Furlongs :47.60 H 71 06-20 SLR 4 Furlongs :51.20 H 30
SIREMaclean'S Music 84 87%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-04-26 35d SA 8.0f turf Firm MSW 86 4 7 4.0 F 72 83 80 84 77 89 0.8 Florent Geroux
2026-03-22 36d SA 8.0f turf Firm MSW 86 2 9 3.0 F 95 nan 82 81 76 89 1.0 Ricardo Gonzalez
2026-02-14 28d SA 6.5f turf Firm MSW 87 2 10 1.0 81 82 96 87 85 89 2.7 Ricardo Gonzalez
2026-01-17 SA 6.0f turf Firm MSW 85 2 10 2.8 F 87 88 98 85 79 86 6.3 Ricardo Gonzalez
7 Sissy Girl THIN DATA
4F 124 lbs L
2.3%
MODEL %
50-1
MODEL FAIR
-8.8
EDGE vs ML
8/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig86 -4 vs par
Needs +7~8% run that
Class85.5 +3.2 vs race +0.3 gap
MC13.2% fair 7-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.39
Faced81.5 -5.1 vs today
Pace EP82.7 best 91.0
Pace LP82.5 best 90.0
Energy0.50
Connections
JockArmando Ayusoκ 0.14was Armando Aguilar · +0.5
TrnPaul Aguirreκ 0.13
J×T8 · 12% win · 25% ITM
Angles
2nd career start 13% -28% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 10100%83.2
2026 10100%83.2
2025 0000——
DMR 0000——
Turf 10100%83.2
Sprint 10100%83.2
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-13 SA Four Furlongs 48.40 h 58 07-06 SA Five Furlongs 1:01.60 h 46 06-07 SA 4 Furlongs :48.60 H 57 05-31 SA 4 Furlongs :47.40 H G 71 ★05-24 SA 5 Furlongs 1:00.00 H 73 05-17 SA 5 Furlongs 1:02.00 H 42
SIRESmiling Tiger 82 69%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-13 SA 6.0f turf Firm Mdn Clm 82 2 11 1.5 91 84 90 83 78 82 8.5 Armando Aguilar
3 Balaza THIN DATA
3F 120 lbs L 1 S
2.1%
MODEL %
50-1
MODEL FAIR
-17.9
EDGE vs ML
4/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig87 -3 vs par
Needs +7~8% run that
Class87.5 +5.2 vs race -0.4 gap
MC9.9% fair 9-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.32
Faced85.7 -0.9 vs today
Pace EP83.6 best 94.4
Pace LP89.3 best 117.2
Energy0.50
Connections
JockHector Berriosκ 0.18
TrnJeff Mullinsκ 0.5
J×T102 · 16% win · 56% ITM
Angles
Hector Berrios / Jeff Mullins 19% -4% Jeff Mullins: off layoff (60d+) 16% -29% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% First-time Lasix 12% -25% Jeff Mullins: first-time Lasix 11% -23%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 20010%84.4
2026 0000——
2025 20010%84.4
DMR 20010%84.4
Turf 20010%84.4
Sprint 20010%84.4
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-24 DMR 4 Furlongs :50.00 H 40 07-17 DMR 4 Furlongs :51.40 H 21 07-06 SA Four Furlongs 49.80 h 38 06-22 SA 4 Furlongs :47.40 H 70 ◆Unusual Craving·76 ★06-15 SA 5 Furlongs 1:01.20 H 58 06-07 SA 4 Furlongs :48.40 H 60
SIRESir Prancealot (Ire) 82 64%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2025-11-09 69d DMR 5.0f turf Firm MSW 85 3 9 3.0 S 94 90 117 81 60 87 1.5 Hector Berrios
2025-09-01 DMR 5.0f turf Firm MSW 86 4 10 6.2 S 84 90 89 84 68 86 4.0 Ruben Silvera
8 Mia Pia
4F 124 lbs L P
1.7%
MODEL %
50-1
MODEL FAIR
-6.0
EDGE vs ML
12/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig86 -4 vs par
Needs +9~5% run that
Class86.6 +4.3 vs race -1.1 gap
MC9.6% fair 9-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.3
Faced84.9 -1.7 vs today
Pace EP84.8 best 101.9
Pace LP82.6 best 105.4
Energy0.52
Connections
JockKyle Freyκ 0.12
TrnKaren Headleyκ 0.39
J×T12 · 0% win · 25% ITM
Angles
1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% Karen Headley: off layoff (60d+) 6% -11%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 50010%85.3
2026 0000——
2025 50010%85.3
DMR 20010%81.7
Turf 30010%83.5
Sprint 50010%85.3
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-27 DMR 3 Furlongs :38.00 H 29 07-12 SA Five Furlongs 1:00.00 hg 77 06-19 SA 5 Furlongs 1:00.80 H 66 06-12 SA 5 Furlongs 1:00.60 H 66 06-04 SA 5 Furlongs 1:02.60 H 35 05-28 SA 4 Furlongs :48.80 H 51
SIRESurf Cat 79 24%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2025-09-27 34d SA 6.0f turf Firm MSW 86 5 11 2.0 F 89 85 88 84 78 86 15.0 Kyle Frey
2025-08-24 21d DMR 5.0f turf Firm MSW 85 3 10 0.8 102 nan 89 82 76 83 49.7 Kyle Frey
2025-08-03 57d DMR 5.0f turf Firm MSW 86 6 11 7.2 nan nan 78 79 72 81 31.0 Kyle Frey
2025-06-07 142d·2.5× SA 6.0f dirt Fast Mdn Clm 84 4 7 5.0 96 80 60 85 80 80 12.1 Kyle Frey
2025-01-16 SA 5.5f dirt Fast MSW 85 9 9 13.8 F 68 99 105 83 67 85 45.7 Edwin Maldonado
1 Let It Begin
3F 120 lbs L EP
0.9%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-10.2
EDGE vs ML
8/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig77 -13 vs par
Needs +12~2% run that
Class84.2 +1.9 vs race -7.1 gap
MC1.0% fair 99-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.36
Faced86.5 -0.1 vs today
Pace EP81.6 best 86.4
Pace LP87.7 best 101.6
Energy0.56
Connections
JockEdwin Maldonadoκ 0.13was Emisael Jaramillo · -0.1
TrnRyan Hansonκ 0.22was Carla Gaines · -2.1
J×T35 · 17% win · 57% ITM
Angles
1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% Edwin Maldonado / Ryan Hanson 10% -47% Ryan Hanson: off layoff (60d+) 4% -76%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 40000%85.0
2026 10000%73.6
2025 30000%85.0
DMR 30000%85.0
Turf 20000%76.7
Sprint 30000%85.0
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-18 DMR 4 Furlongs :47.00 H 72 07-10 SA Four Furlongs 46.80 hg 78 05-08 SA 5 Furlongs 1:00.60 H 66 05-01 SA 4 Furlongs :48.40 H 54 04-24 SA 4 Furlongs :48.40 H 57 04-17 SA 5 Furlongs 1:01.20 H 63
SIRETap Back 86 94%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-05-17 262d·11.9× SA 6.0f turf Firm MSW 85 8 10 11.8 86 84 85 74 61 86 3.1 Emisael Jaramillo
2025-08-28 18d DMR 8.0f turf Firm MSW 86 7 9 3.8 F 81 88 102 77 59 83 6.2 Kazushi Kimura
2025-08-10 22d DMR 5.5f dirt Fast MSW 87 7 10 10.8 F 85 90 95 85 83 82 8.0 Kazushi Kimura
2025-07-19 DMR 5.0f dirt Fast MSW 87 7 9 13.2 F 78 80 93 81 64 87 7.5 Antonio Fresu
4 Unusual Exchange THIN DATA
4F 124 lbs L P
0.5%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-8.6
EDGE vs ML
10/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig85 -5 vs par
Needs +9~5% run that
Class79.0 -3.3 vs race +6.3 gap
MC14.0% fair 6-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.41
Faced81.7 -4.9 vs today
Pace EP79.4 best 77.6
Pace LP81.5 best 86.0
Energy0.52
≠ Cross-surface α
Connections
JockKazushi Kimuraκ 0.14was Edgar Payeras · +0.8
TrnJerry Hollendorferκ 0.4
J×T20 · 10% win · 40% ITM
Angles
Jerry Hollendorfer: first-time turf 12% -22% First-time turf 10% -26% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 10100%80.9
2026 10100%80.9
2025 0000——
DMR 0000——
Turf 0000——
Sprint 10100%80.9
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-25 LA 4 Furlongs :50.20 H 38 07-17 LA 4 Furlongs :50.20 H 26 07-10 LA 4 Furlongs :47.80 H 49 07-03 LA 4 Furlongs :49.00 H 54 ★05-29 LA 5 Furlongs 1:01.60 H 48 05-22 LA 5 Furlongs 1:00.00 H 73
SIREUnusual Heatwave 80 37%ile turf 11%
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-21 LRC 6.0f dirt Fast Mdn Clm 82 2 11 2.8 F 78 91 86 81 72 71 23.7 Edgar Payeras
5 Platinum Groove
3F 120 lbs L
0.1%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-11.0
EDGE vs ML
8/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig87 -3 vs par
MC10.0% fair 9-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockAntonio Fresuκ 0.2
TrnJeff Mullinsκ 0.5
J×T21 · 19% win · 48% ITM
Angles
Jeff Mullins: debut 11% -14% Debut 11% -25%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
DMR 0000——
Turf 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-24 DMR 4 Furlongs :48.80 H 56 07-16 DMR 4 Furlongs :47.40 H G 70 07-06 SA Five Furlongs 1:01.00 h 58 06-22 SA 5 Furlongs 1:02.20 H 46 06-15 SA 5 Furlongs 1:01.40 H 58 06-08 SA 4 Furlongs :49.40 H 45
SIREMo Town 83 77%ile 1st-out 18% (223) turf 15%
No prior races in database