TRACKS · 2026-08-01
CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO
ALL CARDS ↗
▸ How to read a horse block
MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σα. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.
R1 T R2 D R3 T R4 D R5 T R6 D R7 T R8 D R9 T R10 D R11 T
R4 MAIDEN CLAIMING
DMR 2026-08-01 Five Furlongs DIRT
78
strength
-2.0 soft
83
win par
fig to beat
LONE SPEED
shape
front favored
HONEST
early pace
1st¼ 22.6s / par 22.6
TOP-HEAVY
field
figs 73.8–84.8
Purse $30,000. Five Furlongs. For California Bred Maidens, Two Years Old. Weight, 122 Lbs. Claiming Price $20,000.
TODAY'S CONTENDERS WIN% · FAIR / ML QIK% STY P1C CLASS PROJ COND LAST SUS J×T
1 Johnny B 0% 99-1 / 12/1 3.7% 10th/1w — 833+0 — — — 18% 3∠
2 Inca 2% 50-1 / 12/1 4.2% E 1st/1w 76 -4.0 767-7 734 734 — ▼cls 0% 1∠
3 Imelda Is My Light 0% 99-1 / 20/1 2.3% 7th/1w 77 -3.0 749-9 667 667 824 ▼cls — 2∠
4 Simple Majority 20% 4-1 / 8/1 13.1% P 3rd/1w 78 -2.0 815-2 792 792 833 J+0.8 0% ⚠-1.1
5 Extraordinaire 0% 99-1 / 12/1 3.7% 6th/1w 78 -1.5 758-8 676 676 852 L1J+0.5▼cls 10% 4∠
6 Kickingit 1% 99-1 / 20/1 2.5% P 4th/1w 74 -5.7 749-9 725 705 776 15% 1∠
7 Keepsmesane 71% 2-5 / 7/5 48.2% P 2nd/2w 84 +3.7 851+2 841 841 911 ▼cls 14% ★PRIME1∠
8 Romanticon 6% 15-1 / 8/1 7.5% 5th/2w 80 -0.5 806-3 783 783 795 J-0.5▼cls — ⚠-1.41∠
9 Red Raider 0% 99-1 / 5/1 7.9% 8th/3w — 842+1 — — — — 2∠
10 Cross Fever 0% 99-1 / 6/1 6.8% 9th/3w — 833+0 — — — — 1∠
Pace Projector LONE SPEED front favored 1st¼ 22.6s par 22.6 EP/LP
ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 2 LS★ 79/71 Inca 7 » 88/98 Keepsmesane 4 94/101 Simple Majority 6 C★ 90/112 Kickingit 8 » 90/67 Romanticon 5 90/81 Extraordinaire 3 84/81 Imelda Is My Light 9 »» Red Raider 10 »» Cross Fever 1 Johnny B
On the lead: 2 · race sets up for front
7 Keepsmesane ★ PRIME THIN DATA
2C 122 lbs P
71.4%
MODEL %
2-5
MODEL FAIR
+29.7
EDGE vs ML
7/5
M/L
Form
Proj Fig85 +2 vs par
Needs +2~31% run that
Class83.7 +3.7 vs race +1.1 gap
MC28.5% fair 5-2
ConfNORMAL σα 0.33
Faced83.5 +5.5 vs today
Pace EP82.2 best 87.7
Pace LP82.8 best 98.4
Energy0.52
Connections
JockEdwin Maldonadoκ 0.13was Kyle Frey · +0.1
TrnDoug O'Neillκ 0.42
J×T174 · 14% win · 36% ITM
Angles
Edwin Maldonado / Doug O'Neill 16% -11%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 20010%83.8
2026 20010%83.8
2025 0000——
DMR 0000——
Dirt 20010%83.8
Sprint 20010%83.8
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-19 DMR 3 Furlongs :36.20 H 47 07-12 SA Four Furlongs 48.20 hg 60 06-13 SA 4 Furlongs :48.20 H G 54 05-10 SA 4 Furlongs :47.80 H G 69 04-26 SA 4 Furlongs :49.60 H G 45 04-24 SA 3 Furlongs :37.60 H G 31
SIREGrazen 85 88%ile turf 15%
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-20 27d LRC 5.0f dirt Fast Mdn Clm 82 3 7 1.5 F 83 88 98 84 72 81 1.0 Kyle Frey
2026-05-24 SA 4.5f dirt Fast MSW 85 5 8 12.2 F 88 87 76 79 75 85 8.6 Edwin Maldonado
4 Simple Majority
2R 122 lbs P
19.7%
MODEL %
4-1
MODEL FAIR
+8.6
EDGE vs ML
8/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig81 -2 vs par
Needs +13~2% run that
Class78.0 -2.0 vs race +2.9 gap
MC2.4% fair 50-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.27
Faced83.2 +5.2 vs today
Pace EP84.4 best 94.2
Pace LP81.5 best 101.2
Energy0.56
Connections
JockTiago Pereiraκ 0.17was Armando Aguilar · +0.8
TrnJeff Bondeκ 0.28
J×T4 · 0% win · 75% ITM
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 40010%79.1
2026 40010%79.1
2025 0000——
DMR 0000——
Dirt 30010%79.1
Sprint 40010%79.1
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-26 DMR 4 Furlongs :49.00 H 51 07-19 DMR 4 Furlongs :51.80 H 17 05-09 SA 4 Furlongs :47.80 H 67 05-01 SA 4 Furlongs :48.80 H G 52 04-24 SA 4 Furlongs :49.80 H G 39 04-17 SA 3 Furlongs :37.20 H 43 ◆Sentient Soon
SIREMidnight Storm 81 50%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-04 20d LRC 5.5f dirt Fast Mdn Clm 80 3 7 11.8 94 nan 72 79 70 79 5.6 Armando Aguilar
2026-06-14 14d SA 5.0f dirt Fast MSW 83 7 8 18.8 F 85 89 71 74 55 80 39.9 Armando Aguilar
2026-05-31 16d SA 5.0f turf Firm MSW 85 6 6 20.8 87 93 101 58 39 82 8.3 Tiago Pereira
2026-05-15 SA 4.5f dirt Fast MSW 85 6 7 10.5 F 85 79 87 77 72 85 13.9 Alfredo Bautista
8 Romanticon THIN DATA
2G 122 lbs
5.8%
MODEL %
15-1
MODEL FAIR
-5.3
EDGE vs ML
8/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig80 -3 vs par
Needs +5~15% run that
Class79.5 -0.5 vs race +1.0 gap
MC8.3% fair 12-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.42
Faced81.7 +3.7 vs today
Pace EP82.6 best 90.4
Pace LP76.7 best 67.0
Energy0.52
Connections
JockJose Verenzuelaκ 0.04was Armando Aguilar · -0.5
TrnJorge Peribanκ 0.21
Angles
2nd career start 13% -28%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 10000%77.7
2026 10000%77.7
2025 0000——
DMR 0000——
Dirt 10000%77.7
Sprint 10000%77.7
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-25 DMR 4 Furlongs :48.00 H G 65 07-19 DMR 4 Furlongs :47.40 H G 70 07-13 SA Three Furlongs 36.40 hg 46 06-13 SA 5 Furlongs 1:02.20 H 40 06-06 SA 5 Furlongs 1:02.20 H 44 05-30 SA 4 Furlongs :48.00 H G 59
SIREBodexpress 81 53%ile turf 24%
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-20 LRC 5.0f dirt Fast Mdn Clm 82 5 7 9.8 F 90 76 67 78 59 82 6.2 Armando Aguilar
2 Inca THIN DATA
2C 117 lbs E
1.5%
MODEL %
50-1
MODEL FAIR
-6.2
EDGE vs ML
12/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig76 -7 vs par
Needs +11~3% run that
Class76.0 -4.0 vs race -0.2 gap
MC5.5% fair 15-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.3
Faced82.8 +4.8 vs today
Pace EP79.8 best 79.1
Pace LP77.7 best 70.7
Energy0.52
Connections
JockAlfredo Bautistaκ 0.08
TrnRuben Gomezκ -0.03
J×T6 · 0% win · 0% ITM
Angles
Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 20000%72.8
2026 20000%72.8
2025 0000——
DMR 10000%72.8
Dirt 20000%72.8
Sprint 20000%72.8
Wet 0000——
WORKS 06-14 SA 5 Furlongs 1:02.20 H 50 06-07 SA 5 Furlongs 1:04.20 H 23 ◆Atina Liz·75 05-31 SA 5 Furlongs 1:04.80 H 13 05-24 SA 4 Furlongs :50.40 H 37 05-17 SA 4 Furlongs :51.40 H 27 05-10 SA 3 Furlongs :39.80 H 11
SIREDosificado (Chi) 76 4%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-18 14d DMR 5.0f dirt Fast MSW 86 8 9 16.2 — — — 73 68 72 32.1 Alfredo Bautista
2026-07-04 LRC 5.5f dirt Fast Mdn Clm 80 5 7 23.5 79 74 71 72 55 80 27.0 Alfredo Bautista
6 Kickingit THIN DATA
2G 122 lbs P
0.7%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-4.1
EDGE vs ML
20/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig74 -9 vs par
Needs +12~2% run that
Class74.3 -5.7 vs race -0.5 gap
MC1.3% fair 99-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.32
Faced80.6 +2.6 vs today
Pace EP83.1 best 90.3
Pace LP83.0 best 111.5
Energy0.54
Connections
JockHenry Lopezκ -0.13
TrnFelix Gonzalezκ -0.26
J×T212 · 15% win · 42% ITM
Angles
Henry Lopez / Felix Gonzalez 6% -62%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 20000%71.6
2026 20000%71.6
2025 0000——
DMR 0000——
Dirt 20000%71.6
Sprint 20000%71.6
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-19 LA 4 Furlongs :47.80 H 70 06-13 LA 5 Furlongs 1:02.00 H G 57 06-07 LA 4 Furlongs :49.20 H 56 ◆Bail Me Out Patty 05-24 LA 4 Furlongs :52.40 H 18 ◆Could Be Gold·84 05-17 LA 3 Furlongs :36.80 H 45 ◆Island Splash 05-10 LA 3 Furlongs :37.00 H 50 ◆Please Behave
SIREGraydar 81 51%ile turf 12%
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-04 14d LRC 5.5f dirt Fast Mdn Clm 80 4 7 22.2 90 73 63 70 57 76 26.2 Henry Lopez
2026-06-20 LRC 5.0f dirt Fast Mdn Clm 82 6 7 13.5 F 85 94 112 72 54 82 40.9 Henry Lopez
5 Extraordinaire THIN DATA
2G 122 lbs
0.3%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-7.4
EDGE vs ML
12/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig75 -8 vs par
Needs +16~<1% run that
Class78.5 -1.5 vs race -3.3 gap
MC3.2% fair 30-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.53
Faced85.3 +7.3 vs today
Pace EP82.5 best 89.9
Pace LP80.2 best 80.8
Energy0.52
Connections
JockKyle Freyκ 0.12was Alfredo Bautista · +0.5
TrnFelix Rondanκ 0.24
J×T10 · 10% win · 60% ITM
Angles
Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23% 2nd career start 13% -28% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% Felix Rondan: off layoff (60d+) 6% -48%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 10000%66.8
2026 10000%66.8
2025 0000——
DMR 0000——
Dirt 10000%66.8
Sprint 10000%66.8
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-25 DMR 4 Furlongs :50.40 H 35 07-18 DMR 3 Furlongs :36.00 H G 48 07-11 SA Four Furlongs 51.40 h 23 06-07 SA 4 Furlongs :49.60 H 41 05-18 SA 3 Furlongs :35.40 H G 56 05-04 SA 4 Furlongs :49.40 H 44
SIREJack Milton 81 57%ile turf 15%
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-05-24 SA 4.5f dirt Fast MSW 85 5 7 15.5 90 78 81 67 54 85 12.8 Alfredo Bautista
3 Imelda Is My Light THIN DATA
2G 122 lbs
0.2%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-4.6
EDGE vs ML
20/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig74 -9 vs par
Needs +17~<1% run that
Class77.0 -3.0 vs race -3.0 gap
MC2.6% fair 30-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.53
Faced83.9 +5.9 vs today
Pace EP80.9 best 83.7
Pace LP80.2 best 80.8
Energy0.54
Connections
JockWelfin Orantesκ 0.09was Ricardo Ramirez · +0.2
TrnSergio Morfinκ 0.11
Angles
Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23% 2nd career start 13% -28%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 10000%66.4
2026 10000%66.4
2025 0000——
DMR 0000——
Dirt 10000%66.4
Sprint 10000%66.4
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-21 LA 4 Furlongs :47.80 H 68 07-12 LA 4 Furlongs :49.80 H 54 06-16 LA 4 Furlongs :48.60 H 60 ◆Diamond Tornado·62 05-30 LA 5 Furlongs 1:02.80 H 47 05-10 LA 4 Furlongs :50.20 H 45 04-11 LA 5 Furlongs 1:02.80 H 41 ◆Diamond Tornado
SIRESir Prancealot (Ire) 82 64%ile turf 20%
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-28 LRC 5.0f dirt Fast MSW 84 7 7 24.0 S 84 nan 81 66 43 85 43.1 Ricardo Ramirez
9 Red Raider
2C 122 lbs
0.1%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-16.6
EDGE vs ML
5/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig84 +1 vs par
MC18.9% fair 9-2
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockAbel Lezcanoκ 0.13
TrnCraig Lewisκ 0.29
Angles
Debut 11% -25% Craig Lewis: debut 6% -59%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
DMR 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-25 DMR 4 Furlongs :49.60 H 46 07-18 DMR 4 Furlongs :49.80 H 39 07-10 SA Four Furlongs 49.00 h 54 06-18 SA 4 Furlongs :51.00 H 31
SIREClubhouse Ride 84 82%ile 1st-out 13% (156) turf 14%
No prior races in database
10 Cross Fever
2C 122 lbs
0.1%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-14.2
EDGE vs ML
6/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig83 0 vs par
MC15.8% fair 5-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockEdgar Payerasκ 0.06
TrnV Belvoirκ 0.27
Angles
Debut 11% -25%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
DMR 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS ★07-25 LA 4 Furlongs :47.40 H G 73 07-19 LA 4 Furlongs :50.40 H 38 07-11 LA 5 Furlongs 1:01.40 H G 61 07-04 LA 5 Furlongs 1:03.00 H G 38 06-28 LA 4 Furlongs :50.20 H 47 06-21 LA 4 Furlongs :50.40 H 41
SIREAnthony'S Cross 80 40%ile 1st-out 6% (31) turf 11%
No prior races in database
1 Johnny B
2G 122 lbs
0.1%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-7.6
EDGE vs ML
12/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig83 0 vs par
MC13.4% fair 6-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockTyler Bazeκ 0.13
TrnJorge Peribanκ 0.21
J×T17 · 18% win · 29% ITM
Angles
Tyler Baze / Jorge Periban 19% -28% Jorge Periban: debut 12% -45% Debut 11% -25%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
DMR 0000——
Dirt 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-25 DMR 4 Furlongs :48.40 H G 61 07-18 DMR 4 Furlongs :48.40 H 57 06-20 SA 4 Furlongs :50.00 H G 34 06-13 SA 5 Furlongs 1:02.20 H 40 06-06 SA 5 Furlongs 1:02.20 H 44 05-30 SA 4 Furlongs :49.00 H 47
SIREEditorial 82 66%ile 1st-out 38% (13) turf 16%
No prior races in database