TRACKS · 2026-08-01 ALL CARDS ↗
▸ How to read a horse block
MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σα. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.
R1 S R2 T R3 S R4 T R5 S R6 S R7 T R8 D R9 T
R1 CLAIMING
GP 2026-08-01 One Mile ALL WEATHER TRACK
84
strength
-1.0 fair
86
win par
fig to beat
SPEED DUEL
shape
closers favored
FAST
early pace
1st¼ 23.9s / par 24.4
TIGHT
field
figs 81.8–85.7
Purse $27,500. One Mile And Seventy Yards. (All Weather Track) (Includes $4,800 – FBIF - Florida Bred Incentive Fund) (Includes $1,700 – FOA - Florida Owners Awards). For Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward Which Have Never Won Two Races. Three Year Olds, 122 Lbs.; Older, 125 Lbs. Claiming Price $10,000, if for $8,000, allowed 2 Lbs. (Registered Florida Breds Preferred).
TODAY'S CONTENDERS WIN% · FAIR / ML QIK% STY P1C CLASS PROJ COND LAST SUS J×T
2 Del Rosario 2% 30-1 / 6/1 8.0% C 6th/1w 86 +0.6 843-2 832 786 824 ★goldJ+2.4▲cls 0% ✓+2.1
3 Melody Factor 5% 20-1 / 3/1 14.2% S 5th/1w 83 -1.9 835-3 823 823 824 ▲cls 20%
4 Souffle On Fire 5% 20-1 / 5/2 15.8% P 3rd/1w 85 +0.1 835-3 841 815 853 J-0.5 27% ⚠-1.41∠
5 Tinkatwo 57% 4-5 / 8/1 28.2% P 4th/2w 84 -1.4 861+0 806 861 911 L2J-1.2spr→rte 0% ⚠-1.3⚓ANCHOR★PRIME2∠
6 Mischievous Scout 5% 20-1 / 4/1 11.7% EP 2nd/4w 85 0.0 852-1 823 823 902 ▲cls 8% 1∠
7 Starship Vengeance 23% 7-2 / 15/1 12.1% S 7th/3w 84 -1.0 843-2 815 832 spr→rte 18% ★VALUE1∠
8 Street Sue 3% 30-1 / 9/2 10.1% E 1st/4w 84 -1.4 827-4 747 J-4.0D→Sspr→rte ⚠-2.2
Pace Projector SPEED DUEL closers favored 1st¼ 23.9s par 24.4 EP/LP
ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 8 »»» 95/101 Street Sue 6 »»» 86/99 Mischievous Scout 4 C★ 114/111 Souffle On Fire 5 » 97/92 Tinkatwo 3 112/96 Melody Factor 2 100/93 Del Rosario 7 »» 95/92 Starship Vengeance
On the lead: 8, 6 · race sets up for closers
5 Tinkatwo ★ PRIME
6M 123 lbs P
57.0%
MODEL %
4-5
MODEL FAIR
+45.9
EDGE vs ML
8/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig86 0 vs par
Needs +3~22% run that
Class83.5 -1.4 vs race +2.2 gap
MC21.1% fair 7-2
ConfNORMAL σα 0.33
Faced82.4 -1.5 vs today
Pace EP86.4 best 96.8
Pace LP80.5 best 92.4
Energy0.53
Connections
JockYolber Torresκ 0.05was Jose Morelos · -1.2
TrnMichael Yatesκ 0.26
J×T3 · 0% win · 0% ITM
Angles
Michael Yates: 2nd off layoff 18% +55% 2nd off layoff 13% -27%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 181346%86.4
2026 60220%86.1
2025 510020%86.4
GP 1011210%86.4
Synthetic 511120%86.4
Route 40200%81.4
Wet 0000
WORKS 03-08 TAM 4 Furlongs :49.80 B G 57
SIRECajun Breeze 82 72%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-05 65d·2.0× GP 5.0f synthetic Fast Clm 84 4 10 5.5 F 96 81 85 86 80 83 20.3 Jose Morelos
2026-05-01 30d TAM 6.0f dirt Fast Clm 83 3 4 5.5 93 84 88 82 81 82 2.0 Siggy Golibrzuch
2026-04-01 18d TAM 7.0f dirt Fast Clm 80 2 8 8.5 F 84 91 92 82 81 82 4.1 Siggy Golibrzuch
2026-03-14 52d TAM 6.0f dirt Fast Clm 83 3 6 8.0 F 81 74 67 82 80 82 14.0 Siggy Golibrzuch
2026-01-21 17d TAM 8.0f turf Firm Clm 82 4 10 6.2 97 88 70 80 74 82 29.9 Siggy Golibrzuch
2026-01-04 46d TAM 8.181818181818182f dirt Good Clm 81 2 9 6.2 S 94 nan 78 81 72 81 5.8 Siggy Golibrzuch
2025-11-19 32d TAM 8.5f turf Firm Clm 83 10 10 18.5 F 92 nan 82 75 64 82 18.5 Miguel Vasquez
2025-10-18 43d GP 5.5f synthetic Fast Clm 84 6 10 8.5 93 86 96 81 77 82 8.5 Luis Fuenmayor
2025-09-05 14d CNL 5.5f turf Firm Clm 83 4 9 6.2 F 93 94 86 80 86 81 11.5 Johan Rosado
2025-08-22 CNL 6.0f dirt Fast Clm 82 9 9 27.5 F 100 96 95 70 50 83 4.8 Angel Moreno
7 Starship Vengeance ★ VALUE
4F 125 lbs L S
22.7%
MODEL %
7-2
MODEL FAIR
+16.4
EDGE vs ML
15/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig84 -2 vs par
Needs +4~14% run that
Class83.9 -1.0 vs race -0.4 gap
MC15.6% fair 5-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.18
Faced84.7 +0.8 vs today
Pace EP86.3 best 94.6
Pace LP84.2 best 92.4
Energy0.53
Connections
JockMiguel Vasquezκ 0.16was Edgar Perez · +0.2
TrnDaniel Hurtakκ 0.17
J×T50 · 18% win · 40% ITM
Angles
Miguel Vasquez / Daniel Hurtak 16% +16%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 1010210%88.0
2026 610117%82.9
2025 30000%80.3
GP 1010210%88.0
Synthetic 910211%88.0
Route 20000%80.7
Wet 0000
WORKS 03-28 PMM 3 Furlongs :36.95 B 49 03-20 PMM 4 Furlongs :52.00 B 21 03-14 PMM 4 Furlongs :49.65 B G 51 03-08 GP 4 Furlongs :47.82 B 56
SIREThe Big Beast 83 79%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-05 23d GP 5.0f synthetic Fast Clm 84 7 10 6.8 F nan nan 89 83 78 84 20.4 Edgar Perez
2026-06-12 14d GP 8.318181818181818f synthetic Fast Clm 85 4 6 11.2 95 81 88 81 83 84 28.5 Jose Morelos
2026-05-29 21d GP 5.0f synthetic Fast Clm 86 5 7 8.2 F 88 85 92 81 73 84 21.8 Leonel Reyes
2026-05-08 26d GP 5.5f synthetic Fast Clm 85 3 5 3.0 S 91 nan 79 83 74 83 20.0 Marcos Meneses
2026-04-12 9d GP 5.5f synthetic Fast Clm 84 6 8 10.0 90 nan 86 77 68 82 25.7 Miguel Vasquez
2026-04-03 327d·12.6× GP 5.0f synthetic Fast Mdn Clm 79 1 8 0.0 F 82 89 100 81 74 81 0.5 Yolber Torres
2025-05-11 59d·2.3× GP 8.0f turf Firm MSW 84 6 6 17.0 82 90 81 78 77 83 41.9 Leonel Reyes
2025-03-13 57d·2.2× GP 5.0f synthetic Fast MSW 84 8 8 8.0 F 83 99 118 79 76 83 13.4 Emisael Jaramillo
2025-01-15 45d GP 5.5f synthetic Fast MSW 84 4 7 10.5 96 85 45 80 75 84 3.7 Emisael Jaramillo
2024-12-01 GP 5.0f synthetic Fast MSW 84 3 8 6.5 F 85 83 86 88 81 84 7.4 Emisael Jaramillo
3 Melody Factor
3F 122 lbs L S
5.0%
MODEL %
20-1
MODEL FAIR
-20.0
EDGE vs ML
3/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig83 -3 vs par
Needs +6~11% run that
Class83.0 -1.9 vs race +0.4 gap
MC11.1% fair 8-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.23
Faced79.9 -4.0 vs today
Pace EP82.2 best 112.2
Pace LP84.6 best 95.7
Energy0.51
Connections
JockJesus Riosκ 0.08
TrnCarlos Narvaezκ 0.3
J×T10 · 20% win · 60% ITM
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 711114%81.5
2026 611117%81.5
2025 10000%58.7
GP 311033%81.5
Synthetic 311033%81.5
Route 711114%81.5
Wet 0000
WORKS 07-04 GP 4 Furlongs :52.70 B 24 05-09 GP 4 Furlongs :49.03 B 50 04-12 TAM 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 52 03-12 TAM 3 Furlongs :39.40 B 18
SIREThe Factor 83 74%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-11 28d GP 8.5f synthetic Fast Clm 82 2 8 0.8 F 74 85 91 82 81 81 5.5 Jesus Rios
2026-06-13 21d GP 8.5f synthetic Fast Clm 84 7 8 10.0 76 93 96 78 74 80 13.7 Jesus Rios
2026-05-23 31d GP 8.5f synthetic Fast Mdn Clm 78 1 9 0.0 78 70 66 81 80 78 7.7 Jesus Rios
2026-04-22 33d TAM 8.0f turf Firm Mdn Clm 79 3 9 3.2 F 78 73 90 73 70 75 59.8 Gabriel Maldonado
2026-03-20 54d TAM 8.0f turf Firm Mdn Clm 78 7 10 10.2 F 112 80 95 69 63 73 53.9 Gabriel Maldonado
2026-01-25 43d TAM 8.0f turf Firm Mdn Clm 76 7 10 13.2 F 85 nan 70 67 58 72 25.9 Ubardo Casique
2025-12-13 TAM 8.181818181818182f dirt Fast Mdn Clm 77 6 6 57.2 S 81 110 108 59 39 80 9.8 Gaddiel Martinez
6 Mischievous Scout
3F 122 lbs L EP
4.9%
MODEL %
20-1
MODEL FAIR
-15.1
EDGE vs ML
4/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig85 -1 vs par
Needs +5~10% run that
Class84.9 0.0 vs race +0.3 gap
MC14.5% fair 6-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.14
Faced80.1 -3.8 vs today
Pace EP80.0 best 85.5
Pace LP84.7 best 99.2
Energy0.52
Connections
JockLeonel Reyesκ 0.2was Jose Morelos · +0.3
TrnHeather Smullenκ 0.21
J×T51 · 8% win · 35% ITM
Angles
Leonel Reyes / Heather Smullen 8% -58%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 141187%83.1
2026 710514%82.0
2025 70130%83.1
GP 141187%83.1
Synthetic 911611%83.1
Route 1011610%83.1
Wet 0000
WORKS 03-25 GP 4 Furlongs :49.32 B 58
SIREGirvin 85 91%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-11 20d GP 8.5f synthetic Fast Clm 82 3 8 2.0 F 82 80 99 82 80 84 2.6 Jose Morelos
2026-06-21 14d GP 8.5f synthetic Fast Mdn Clm 80 1 10 0.0 F 74 85 95 82 76 83 2.5 Jose Morelos
2026-06-07 28d GP 8.318181818181818f synthetic Fast Mdn Clm 80 3 11 4.5 86 80 71 80 76 83 2.7 Samy Camacho
2026-05-10 17d GP 8.318181818181818f synthetic Fast Mdn Clm 79 3 6 1.8 S 81 78 83 81 76 83 2.8 Luis Fuenmayor
2026-04-23 21d GP 8.5f synthetic Fast Mdn Clm 80 3 7 6.5 F 78 97 90 77 70 83 2.5 Yolber Torres
2026-04-02 28d GP 8.318181818181818f synthetic Fast Mdn Clm 82 3 7 4.5 87 nan 86 81 78 83 3.4 Yolber Torres
2026-03-05 95d·4.5× GP 8.5f synthetic Fast Mdn Clm 83 4 6 8.8 S 77 85 98 81 75 84 3.0 Luca Panici
2025-11-30 21d GP 8.5f synthetic Fast Mdn Clm 80 2 7 0.2 F 88 87 80 83 86 84 1.4 Luca Panici
2025-11-09 43d·2.0× GP 7.0f dirt Fast MSW 85 5 7 16.5 F 75 94 99 82 77 86 11.2 Luca Panici
2025-09-27 GP 8.0f turf Good MSW 86 7 9 6.2 S 81 81 78 83 75 86 7.4 Leonel Reyes
4 Souffle On Fire
4F 123 lbs L P
4.8%
MODEL %
20-1
MODEL FAIR
-23.8
EDGE vs ML
5/2
M/L
Form
Proj Fig83 -3 vs par
Needs +8~2% run that
Class85.0 +0.1 vs race -2.4 gap
MC14.9% fair 6-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.24
Faced83.9 0.0 vs today
Pace EP84.6 best 113.9
Pace LP86.7 best 111.3
Energy0.51
Connections
JockRasheed Hughesκ 0.08was Diego Herrera · -0.5
TrnSaffie Joseph, Jr.κ 0.47
J×T33 · 27% win · 58% ITM
Angles
Rasheed Hughes / Saffie Joseph, Jr. 26% -13%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 1011410%83.6
2026 511120%83.6
2025 50030%82.9
GP 1011410%83.6
Synthetic 40110%83.6
Route 811312%83.6
Wet 0000
WORKS 07-26 GP 4 Furlongs :49.28 B 56 07-19 GP 4 Furlongs :51.11 B 28 07-12 GP 4 Furlongs :52.69 B 14 06-14 GP 4 Furlongs :48.41 B 68 06-07 GP 3 Furlongs :37.96 B 32 05-10 GP 3 Furlongs :39.08 B 22
SIREViolence 84 87%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-20 34d GP 8.318181818181818f synthetic Fast Clm 83 3 8 1.5 S 90 77 80 81 76 84 2.2 Diego Herrera
2026-05-17 42d GP 8.5f synthetic Fast Clm 84 7 9 12.2 S 114 104 111 77 71 85 5.0 Rasheed Hughes
2026-04-05 21d GP 8.5f turf Firm Clm 85 5 7 8.8 F 87 81 73 76 69 85 1.7 Micah Husbands
2026-03-15 45d GP 8.318181818181818f synthetic Fast Clm 87 2 6 2.2 S 71 85 100 84 81 83 3.5 Tyler Gaffalione
2026-01-29 42d GP 8.0f turf Firm Mdn Clm 81 1 7 0.0 75 79 89 80 81 82 3.1 Irad Ortiz, Jr.
2025-12-18 21d GP 8.0f turf Firm Mdn Clm 81 3 7 4.2 S 61 88 90 77 76 81 7.3 Edgard Zayas
2025-11-27 25d GP 6.0f dirt Fast Mdn Clm 78 4 8 5.5 S 56 95 55 83 71 81 0.9 Edgard Zayas
2025-11-02 21d GP 8.0f turf Firm Mdn Clm 83 3 8 3.5 S 87 80 80 73 65 79 3.3 Edgard Zayas
2025-10-12 29d GP 8.318181818181818f synthetic Fast Mdn Clm 83 5 7 11.0 S 85 72 67 79 81 79 5.6 Reylu Gutierrez
2025-09-13 GP 6.0f dirt Fast MSW 85 3 6 14.0 86 95 109 81 79 85 10.2 Reylu Gutierrez
8 Street Sue
3F 115 lbs L E
3.1%
MODEL %
30-1
MODEL FAIR
-15.1
EDGE vs ML
9/2
M/L
Form
Proj Fig82 -4 vs par
Needs +8~2% run that
Class83.5 -1.4 vs race -1.7 gap
MC7.6% fair 12-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.25
Faced83.6 -0.3 vs today
Pace EP84.0 best 94.5
Pace LP86.9 best 100.5
Energy0.55
Connections
JockPedro Penaκ -0.25was Samy Camacho · -4.0
TrnCarlos Davidκ 0.38
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 912111%85.2
2026 611017%85.2
2025 30110%84.7
GP 611017%85.2
Synthetic 411025%85.2
Route 0000
Wet 10100%84.7
WORKS 07-11 PMM 3 Furlongs :37.75 B 28 06-19 PMM 3 Furlongs :37.15 B 38 05-23 PMM 4 Furlongs :49.95 B 54 05-10 PMM 3 Furlongs :39.95 B 20 04-19 PMM 4 Furlongs :50.50 B 46 03-21 PMM 3 Furlongs :38.65 B 29
SIREAuthentic 85 89%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-20 24d GP 7.0f dirt Fast Clm 83 9 12 20.5 F 74 68 86 6.3 Samy Camacho
2026-06-26 21d GP 5.5f synthetic Fast Clm 85 6 8 4.8 F 92 98 100 81 76 84 6.2 Samy Camacho
2026-06-05 41d GP 5.5f synthetic Fast Str Alw 86 6 7 10.5 88 78 79 79 67 84 3.2 Edwin Gonzalez
2026-04-25 30d GP 5.5f synthetic Fast Mdn Clm 79 1 9 0.0 94 96 89 85 81 83 0.4 Edwin Gonzalez
2026-03-26 20d GP 6.0f dirt Fast Mdn 84 7 7 34.5 80 nan 90 67 42 86 3.5 Luis Saez
2026-03-06 219d·7.3× GP 5.0f synthetic Fast Mdn Clm 82 2 8 0.2 F 77 94 97 85 81 87 1.2 Shaun Bridgmohan
2025-07-30 40d SAR 5.5f turf Firm MSW 87 6 9 8.2 F nan nan 76 84 80 87 6.6 Christopher Elliott
2025-06-20 28d BAQ 5.5f dirt Fast MSW 86 3 6 7.8 84 91 81 83 76 90 2.4 Christopher Elliott
2025-05-23 BAQ 5.0f dirt Muddy (Sealed) MSW 86 2 7 2.5 92 87 69 85 74 86 7.1 Joel Rosario
2 Del Rosario
4F 125 lbs C
2.5%
MODEL %
30-1
MODEL FAIR
-11.8
EDGE vs ML
6/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig84 -2 vs par
Needs +6~6% run that
Class85.5 +0.6 vs race -1.0 gap
MC15.2% fair 6-1
ConfTIGHT σα 0.22
Faced83.2 -0.7 vs today
Pace EP79.7 best 100.2
Pace LP81.9 best 93.2
Energy0.51
Connections
JockEdgar Perezκ 0.15was Wladimir Rengifo · +2.4
TrnRuben Sierraκ 0.24
J×T4 · 0% win · 50% ITM
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 111119%82.8
2026 30110%82.8
2025 30000%77.7
GP 111119%82.8
Synthetic 911111%82.8
Route 911111%82.8
Wet 0000
WORKS 07-27 GP 4 Furlongs :48.57 B 63 06-15 GP 4 Furlongs :51.35 B 36 05-17 GP 4 Furlongs :49.44 B 52
SIREGunnevera 80 32%ile turf 9%
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-11 21d GP 8.5f synthetic Fast Clm 82 4 8 6.0 F 77 78 87 78 76 85 2.1 Wladimir Rengifo
2026-06-20 21d GP 8.318181818181818f synthetic Fast Clm 83 2 8 0.5 S 64 62 62 81 77 84 9.5 Wladimir Rengifo
2026-05-30 169d·5.1× GP 8.5f synthetic Fast Clm 83 3 7 3.8 F 90 86 87 83 80 84 26.0 Jesus Rios
2025-12-12 301d·9.1× GP 8.5f synthetic Fast Clm 84 6 6 11.2 100 95 93 76 72 84 21.2 Carlos Martinez
2025-02-14 43d GP 5.5f synthetic Fast Clm 84 6 7 7.2 66 83 86 78 70 84 35.1 Jonathan Ocasio
2025-01-02 27d GP 8.318181818181818f synthetic Fast Clm 83 5 8 7.0 91 102 101 77 78 83 7.9 David Egan
2024-12-06 33d GP 8.318181818181818f synthetic Fast Str Alw 85 5 8 16.8 82 82 55 83 76 84 68.8 David Egan
2024-11-03 50d GP 8.5f synthetic Fast AOC 86 7 7 11.0 83 90 101 78 74 83 30.3 Melvis Gonzalez
2024-09-14 21d GP 8.0f dirt Good Stk 87 9 10 23.8 85 88 70 80 71 84 57.8 Melvis Gonzalez
2024-08-24 GP 8.318181818181818f synthetic Fast Mdn Clm 81 1 6 0.0 S 82 nan 70 80 69 80 2.0 Melvis Gonzalez