GP 2026-08-01 · US Racing

TRACKS · 2026-08-01

CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO

▸ How to read a horse block

MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σ_α. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.

R1 S R2 T R3 S R4 T R5 S R6 S R7 T R8 D R9 T

Purse $41,000. Five Furlongs. (Turf) (Rail at 66 Feet) (Includes $6,300 – FBIF - Florida Bred Incentive Fund) (Includes $2,700 – FOA - Florida Owners Awards). For Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward Which Have Started For A Claiming Price Of $25,000 Or Less And Which Have Never Won A Race Other Than Maiden, Claiming, Or State Bred Allowance Or Which Have Never Won Two Races Claiming Price $35,000. Three Year Olds, 120 Lbs.; Older, 126 Lbs. Claiming Price $35,000. (If deemed inadvisable to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the Tapeta Course at Five Furlongs) .

TODAY'S CONTENDERS		WIN% · FAIR / ML	QIK%	STY	P1C	CLASS	PROJ	COND	LAST	SUS	J×T
3	Bad Gal Party ✓	15% 6-1 / 3/1	22.9%	P	4th/1w	90 +2.3	86²-5	85³	85⁴	97¹	J-0.8	33%	⚠-2.71∠
5	Viking Quest ✓	11% 8-1 / 7/2	19.5%	EP	3rd/1w	90 +2.0	86²-5	86¹	88²	69⁴	S→T▲cls	—	⚠-1.61∠
6	Travel Happy ✓	17% 5-1 / 2/1	29.6%	EP	2nd/1w	92 +3.9	88¹-3	86¹	86³	94²	L3	20%	2∠
7	Neodera ✓	57% 4-5 / 12/1	27.9%	E	1st/1w	86 -1.9	86²-5	—	89¹	84³	L1J-0.6S→T▲cls	20%	⚠-4.1★PRIME4∠

Pace Projector SPEED DUEL closers favored 1st¼ 21.6s par 22.1 EP/LP

ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS 7 LP 97/107 Neodera 6 95/101 Travel Happy 5 87/94 Viking Quest 3 96/97 Bad Gal Party

On the lead: 7, 6 · race sets up for closers

7 Neodera ★ PRIME

4F 126 lbs L E

56.7%

MODEL %

4-5

MODEL FAIR

+49.0

EDGE vs ML

12/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig86 -5 vs par

Needs +6~6% run that

Class86.2 -1.9 vs race -0.2 gap

MC21.8% fair 7-2

ConfNORMAL σα 0.48

Faced86.4 -3.8 vs today

Pace EP84.8 best 97.4

Pace LP88.8 best 107.1

Energy0.55

≠ Cross-surface α

Connections

JockEdgar Perezκ 0.15was Joe Bravo · -0.6

TrnMichael Lermanκ 0.23

J×T5 · 20% win · 20% ITM

Angles

1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% First-time turf 10% -26% Michael Lerman: off layoff (60d+) 9% -2% Michael Lerman: first-time turf 5% -76%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	8	2	1	2	25%	91.9
2026	2	0	1	0	0%	89.2
2025	4	2	0	0	50%	90.4
GP	8	2	1	2	25%	91.9
Turf	0	0	0	0	—	—
Sprint	8	2	1	2	25%	91.9
Wet	0	0	0	0	—	—

SIRENeolithic 83 76%ile turf 16%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-02-19 35d	GP	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	Clm	85	2	6	0.8		82	nan	85	89	90	85	0.7	Joe Bravo
2026-01-15 34d	GP	5.0f	synthetic	Fast	Str Alw	86	6	6	16.0	F	92	nan	88	74	56	86	3.6	Mario Gutierrez
2025-12-12 21d	GP	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	Clm	85	1	5	0.0	S	74	nan	107	90	94	85	0.2	Emisael Jaramillo
2025-11-21 47d	GP	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	AOC	88	6	6	15.0	F	92	88	91	79	67	86	15.3	Emisael Jaramillo
2025-10-05 85d·2.4×	GP	5.0f	synthetic	Fast	AOC	87	6	7	10.0	F	97	101	98	83	84	87	10.0	Emisael Jaramillo
2025-07-12 351d·10.0×	GP	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	85	1	7	0.0		86	77	76	90	87	84	4.1	Emisael Jaramillo
2024-07-26 20d	GP	5.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	86	3	7	6.8	F	81	94	107	90	88	83	6.9	Edgar Perez
2024-07-06	GP	5.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	84	3	7	8.8		94	99	71	92	82	84	7.5	Drayden Van Dyke

6 Travel Happy

5M 126 lbs L EP

17.4%

MODEL %

5-1

MODEL FAIR

-15.9

EDGE vs ML

2/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig88 -3 vs par

Needs +4~14% run that

Class92.0 +3.9 vs race -4.1 gap

MC35.4% fair 9-5

ConfNORMAL σα 0.32

Faced90.1 -0.1 vs today

Pace EP84.8 best 94.8

Pace LP87.0 best 100.7

Energy0.53

Connections

JockLeonel Reyesκ 0.2

TrnGary Jacksonκ 0.16

J×T5 · 20% win · 80% ITM

Angles

Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23% 3rd off layoff 14% -22%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	14	5	3	2	36%	92.6
2026	2	1	0	0	50%	92.6
2025	10	3	3	1	30%	90.7
GP	14	5	3	2	36%	92.6
Turf	5	0	2	1	0%	86.3
Sprint	14	5	3	2	36%	92.6
Wet	0	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS ★06-11 PMM 3 Furlongs :36.45 B 50 05-30 PMM 3 Furlongs :37.30 B 42

SIREGone Astray 81 51%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-05 15d	GP	5.0f	turf	Firm	AOC	91	4	7	2.0	F	95	85	92	86	91	91	2.6	Leonel Reyes
2026-06-20 184d·6.1×	GP	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	Clm	88	1	6	0.0		85	86	97	93	87	92	1.2	Leonel Reyes
2025-12-18 21d	GP	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	Str Alw	90	6	7	4.8	F	86	nan	86	84	85	92	2.8	Jose Morelos
2025-11-27 32d	GP	5.0f	synthetic	Fast	AOC	91	5	8	5.0	F	82	89	79	85	90	92	2.9	Jose Morelos
2025-10-26 44d	GP	5.0f	turf	Firm	AOC	91	3	9	1.0	F	90	94	101	85	94	92	5.0	Jose Morelos
2025-09-12 40d	GP	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	Str Alw	89	2	8	2.5		94	92	78	90	93	91	2.9	Miguel Vasquez
2025-08-03 30d	GP	5.0f	turf	Firm	AOC	90	7	7	2.8	F	91	84	91	86	87	91	4.4	Miguel Vasquez
2025-07-04 22d	GP	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	AOC	89	1	6	0.0	F	80	nan	72	91	95	90	1.2	Miguel Vasquez
2025-06-12 28d	GP	5.0f	turf	Firm	AOC	90	2	8	0.2	F	55	87	77	86	90	90	3.1	Leonel Reyes
2025-05-15	GP	5.0f	turf	Firm	AOC	89	2	8	0.8	F	85	78	80	86	96	88	11.1	Miguel Vasquez

3 Bad Gal Party

4F 126 lbs L P

14.8%

MODEL %

6-1

MODEL FAIR

-10.2

EDGE vs ML

3/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig86 -5 vs par

Needs +7~8% run that

Class90.4 +2.3 vs race -4.2 gap

MC26.6% fair 3-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.41

Faced89.9 -0.3 vs today

Pace EP86.9 best 96.4

Pace LP78.4 best 97.0

Energy0.52

Connections

JockDiego Herreraκ 0.12was Edwin Gonzalez · -0.8

TrnDavid Fawkesκ 0.3

J×T6 · 33% win · 50% ITM

Angles

Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23%

Record

	Sts	1st	Win%	Fig
Life	10	3	30%	90.2
2026	5	2	40%	90.2
2025	2	0	0%	82.1
GP	9	3	33%	90.2
Turf	3	0	0%	85.3
Sprint	10	3	30%	90.2
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-26 GP 4 Furlongs :48.54 B 50 ★06-27 GP 4 Furlongs :47.50 B 62 ★06-20 GP 4 Furlongs :47.71 B 74 05-23 GP 4 Furlongs :48.28 B 54 05-09 GP 4 Furlongs :48.26 B 55 05-02 GP 4 Furlongs :48.17 B 60 ◆Greenfield Cougar·93

SIREWorld Of Trouble 83 74%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-05 35d	GP	5.0f	turf	Firm	AOC	91	6	7	3.0	F	96	89	97	85	89	89	17.0	Edwin Gonzalez
2026-05-31 52d	GP	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	Str Alw	90	5	6	8.8		87	96	94	82	75	90	1.9	Edwin Gonzalez
2026-04-09 32d	GP	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	Str Alw	90	5	6	6.5	S	90	69	70	85	74	90	1.4	Edwin Gonzalez
2026-03-08 58d	GP	5.0f	synthetic	Fast	Clm	90	1	4	0.0	F	91	76	45	88	87	90	1.5	Tyler Gaffalione
2026-01-09 316d·6.2×	GP	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	Clm	88	1	7	0.0		91	83	80	90	91	90	5.3	Tyler Gaffalione
2025-02-27 50d	GP	5.0f	synthetic	Fast	Clm	87	6	8	7.2	F	100	86	96	81	78	91	8.0	Emisael Jaramillo
2025-01-08 32d	GP	5.0f	synthetic	Fast	AOC	89	7	8	9.0	F	82	76	86	82	69	91	25.3	Emisael Jaramillo
2024-12-07 62d	GP	5.0f	turf	Firm	AOC	88	8	8	7.0	F	90	86	81	83	76	92	11.3	Tyler Gaffalione
2024-10-06 51d	KEE	5.5f	turf	Firm	Stk	90	10	12	8.2	F	74	89	88	82	79	91	61.34	Jaime Torres
2024-08-16	GP	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	86	1	8	0.0		87	103	93	83	70	86	1.7	Emisael Jaramillo

5 Viking Quest

3F 120 lbs L EP

11.1%

MODEL %

8-1

MODEL FAIR

-11.1

EDGE vs ML

7/2

M/L

Form

Proj Fig86 -5 vs par

Needs +5~10% run that

Class90.1 +2.0 vs race -3.7 gap

MC16.2% fair 5-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.22

Faced86.1 -4.1 vs today

Pace EP77.8 best 86.8

Pace LP77.5 best 94.4

Energy0.52

Connections

JockSamuel Camacho, Jr.κ 0.12was Micah Husbands · -0.4

TrnLauren Robsonκ 0.27

Angles

First-time turf 10% -26%

Record

	Sts	1st	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	8	2	1	25%	88.0
2026	6	2	1	33%	88.0
2025	2	0	0	0%	84.7
GP	7	2	1	29%	88.0
Turf	6	1	1	17%	85.5
Sprint	5	2	1	40%	88.0
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-19 GP 4 Furlongs :48.20 B 64 07-05 GP 4 Furlongs :51.13 B 36 04-12 GP 3 Furlongs :38.13 B 30

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-05 21d	GP	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	Str Alw	86	1	7	0.0		83	87	54	88	81	89	4.9	Micah Husbands
2026-05-15 21d	GP	7.5f	turf	Good	Str Alw	88	6	9	3.5	S	63	88	90	86	81	88	18.6	Jose Morelos
2026-04-24 43d	GP	5.0f	turf	Firm	Str Alw	88	4	7	5.2	F	72	78	51	84	83	88	8.6	Rajiv Maragh
2026-03-12 32d	GP	5.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn	86	1	9	0.0	F	87	95	94	85	87	87	6.5	John Velazquez
2026-02-08 21d	GP	5.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	82	3	10	1.5	F	nan	nan	90	83	76	87	5.9	David Egan
2026-01-18 28d	GP	8.5f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	88	9	12	9.5	F	95	90	94	85	82	88	22.6	John Velazquez
2025-12-21 37d	GP	8.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	86	5	12	4.0		121	88	74	84	78	88	8.9	Julien Leparoux
2025-11-14	CD	8.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	88	6	12	7.0		75	78	80	85	80	88	49.97	Julien Leparoux