GP 2026-08-01 · US Racing

TRACKS · 2026-08-01

CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO

▸ How to read a horse block

MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σ_α. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.

R1 S R2 T R3 S R4 T R5 S R6 S R7 T R8 D R9 T

GP 2026-08-01 Five And One Half Furlongs ALL WEATHER TRACK

strength

-0.9 fair

win par

fig to beat

SPEED DUEL

shape

closers favored

FAST

early pace

1st¼ 22.2s / par 22.6

TOP-HEAVY

field

figs 72.3–83.5

FIG CLUSTER

low edge

consider passing

Purse $28,500. Five And One Half Furlongs. (All Weather Track) (Includes $3,600 – FBIF - Florida Bred Incentive Fund) (Includes $1,900 – FOA - Florida Owners Awards). For Maidens, Three Years Old And Upward. Three Year Olds, 120 Lbs.; Older, 124 Lbs. Claiming Price $12,500.

TODAY'S CONTENDERS		WIN% · FAIR / ML	QIK%	STY	P1C	CLASS	PROJ	COND	LAST	SUS	J×T
1	Flying Ash	7% 15-1 / 8/1	9.8%	EP	4th/1w	79 -0.9	80⁴-2	78³	73⁴	83³	L3★gold	25%	1∠
2	Bleu Martini	30% 5-2 / 6/1	21.1%	S	5th/1w	82 +1.3	84¹+2	86¹	81²	90¹	J-2.1	—	⚠-2.1★VALUE
3	Awegod	8% 12-1 / 7/2	17.3%	EP	2nd/1w	78 -2.0	83²+1	—	74³	—	D→Srte→spr	—
4	Rodhan	55% 4-5 / 7/5	48.5%	EP	1st/1w	82 +1.4	82³+0	82²	82¹	88²	J-2.4	25%	⚠-2.1★PRIME
5	Cousin Vinny	0% 99-1 / 20/1	3.2%	P	3rd/1w	73 -7.6	72⁵-10	—	57⁵	82⁴	J+0.7rte→spr▲cls	—

Pace Projector SPEED DUEL closers favored 1st¼ 22.2s par 22.6 EP/LP

ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 4 HOLDS 99/95 Rodhan 3 105/104 Awegod 5 92/112 Cousin Vinny 1 LP 97/115 Flying Ash 2 93/92 Bleu Martini

On the lead: 4, 3 · race sets up for closers

4 Rodhan ★ PRIME

3C 113 lbs L EP

54.9%

MODEL %

4-5

MODEL FAIR

+13.2

EDGE vs ML

7/5

M/L

Form

Proj Fig82 0 vs par

Needs +2~30% run that

Class81.7 +1.4 vs race +0.1 gap

MC24.0% fair 3-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.22

Faced80.5 +1.1 vs today

Pace EP85.5 best 98.8

Pace LP79.3 best 94.8

Energy0.52

Connections

JockPedro Penaκ -0.25was Ronaldo Rodriguez · -2.4

TrnRonald Coyκ 0.34

J×T4 · 25% win · 50% ITM

Record

	Sts	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	5	2	0%	82.3
2026	5	2	0%	82.3
2025	0	0	—	—
GP	5	2	0%	82.3
Synthetic	4	2	0%	82.3
Sprint	2	2	0%	82.3
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-18 GP 4 Furlongs :51.16 B 39 ★06-11 GP 3 Furlongs :35.26 B G 52 05-09 GP 4 Furlongs :48.80 B 51 05-02 GP 5 Furlongs :59.28 B 80 04-24 GP 4 Furlongs :49.56 B 54 03-27 GP 4 Furlongs :50.58 B G 40

SIREInstagrand 83 80%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-04 14d	GP	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	81	2	8	1.5		82	nan	95	82	73	80	1.8	Ronaldo Rodriguez
2026-06-20 21d	GP	5.0f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	80	2	7	0.8	F	78	91	79	82	74	78	10.6	Ronaldo Rodriguez
2026-05-30 15d	GP	8.5f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	80	7	8	15.0	S	92	87	57	77	66	80	12.6	Yolber Torres
2026-05-15 43d·2.0×	GP	8.0f	turf	Good	Mdn Clm	80	4	8	1.8	S	93	82	83	80	68	74	16.2	Leonel Reyes
2026-04-02	GP	8.318181818181818f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	82	7	7	16.8	S	99	nan	81	80	70	82	17.3	Edwin Gonzalez

2 Bleu Martini ★ VALUE

3G 120 lbs L S

30.0%

MODEL %

5-2

MODEL FAIR

+15.7

EDGE vs ML

6/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig84 +2 vs par

Needs +3~22% run that

Class81.6 +1.3 vs race +1.9 gap

MC26.8% fair 5-2

ConfTIGHT σα 0.2

Faced80.5 +1.1 vs today

Pace EP80.7 best 93.3

Pace LP83.5 best 92.4

Energy0.53

Connections

JockJozbin Santanaκ -0.05was Miguel Vasquez · -2.1

TrnJavier Morzanκ -0.0

Record

	Sts	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	8	2	0%	85.6
2026	8	2	0%	85.6
2025	0	0	—	—
GP	6	2	0%	85.6
Synthetic	6	2	0%	85.6
Sprint	8	2	0%	85.6
Wet	0	0	—	—

SIREAlternation 82 67%ile turf 8%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-04 14d	GP	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	81	5	8	3.5		88	85	92	81	70	81	7.3	Miguel Vasquez
2026-06-20 14d	GP	5.0f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	80	4	7	5.8	F	86	94	90	78	66	81	8.8	Miguel Vasquez
2026-06-06 13d	GP	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	79	4	12	5.2		93	94	92	78	68	80	17.2	Ronaldo Rodriguez
2026-05-24 9d	GP	5.0f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	80	3	10	2.8	F	58	91	68	86	84	78	28.3	Miguel Vasquez
2026-05-15 13d	GP	5.0f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	83	6	6	7.5	F	81	nan	85	79	63	76	22.6	Miguel Vasquez
2026-05-02 35d·2.5×	GP	5.0f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	80	3	10	9.5		86	87	80	82	68	75	65.1	Leonel Reyes
2026-03-28 48d·3.4×	TAM	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	78	9	10	15.5	F	87	84	76	67	60	77	58.4	Jorge Panaijo
2026-02-08	TAM	7.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	85	10	10	68.0	F	84	nan	74	56	42	85	114.1	Jose Batista

3 Awegod

3G 120 lbs L EP

7.8%

MODEL %

12-1

MODEL FAIR

-14.4

EDGE vs ML

7/2

M/L

Form

Proj Fig83 +1 vs par

Needs +4~14% run that

Class78.3 -2.0 vs race +4.3 gap

MC21.9% fair 7-2

ConfTIGHT σα 0.27

Faced79.9 +0.5 vs today

Pace EP85.4 best 104.8

Pace LP85.9 best 104.2

Energy0.56

≠ Cross-surface α

Connections

JockSamuel Camacho, Jr.κ 0.12was Diego Herrera · -0.1

TrnDouglas Nunnκ 0.06

Record

	Sts	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	5	1	1	0%	83.9
2026	4	1	1	0%	83.9
2025	1	0	0	0%	76.7
GP	5	1	1	0%	83.9
Synthetic	0	0	0	—	—
Sprint	3	1	0	0%	83.9
Wet	2	0	0	0%	76.7

WORKS 07-19 PMM 3 Furlongs :39.95 B 20 04-25 PMM 4 Furlongs :49.35 B G 57 04-18 PMM 4 Furlongs :48.10 B G 70 04-04 PMM 4 Furlongs :48.70 B 66 03-21 PMM 4 Furlongs :50.50 B 42 03-14 PMM 4 Furlongs :49.35 B 54

SIREAwesome Slew 83 79%ile turf 11%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-26 21d	GP	8.0f	dirt	Muddy (Sealed)	Mdn Clm	80	7	7	33.2	S	nan	nan	64	74	60	81	5.6	Diego Herrera
2026-06-05 13d	GP	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	80	3	5	5.5	S	80	87	96	79	76	80	5.2	Edwin Gonzalez
2026-05-23 22d	GP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	81	6	11	6.5		84	88	104	80	69	79	1.5	Rasheed Hughes
2026-05-01 215d·9.8×	GP	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	78	2	7	4.2	F	89	nan	83	84	77	73	1.2	Rasheed Hughes
2025-09-28	GP	5.5f	dirt	Muddy (Sealed)	Mdn Clm	81	8	9	18.2		105	93	99	77	66	81	5.2	Rajiv Maragh

1 Flying Ash

4G 124 lbs L EP

6.9%

MODEL %

15-1

MODEL FAIR

-4.2

EDGE vs ML

8/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig80 -2 vs par

Needs +8~2% run that

Class79.4 -0.9 vs race +0.9 gap

MC25.1% fair 3-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.27

Faced80.0 +0.6 vs today

Pace EP83.7 best 96.6

Pace LP86.4 best 115.4

Energy0.54

Connections

JockRenzo Rojasκ 0.14

TrnJuan Rizoκ 0.15

J×T12 · 25% win · 50% ITM

Angles

3rd off layoff 14% -22%

Record

	Sts	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	7	1	0%	77.6
2026	2	1	0%	77.6
2025	5	0	0%	76.8
GP	7	1	0%	77.6
Synthetic	5	1	0%	77.6
Sprint	5	1	0%	77.6
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-12 GP 4 Furlongs :48.52 B 55 05-24 GP 4 Furlongs :48.46 B 53 ★04-26 OTC 4 Furlongs :46.60 B 72

SIREValiant Minister 82 72%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-20 14d	GP	5.0f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	80	6	7	8.5	F	72	81	94	73	62	79	9.3	Renzo Rojas
2026-06-06 231d·6.8×	GP	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	79	3	12	4.0		nan	nan	85	78	69	78	40.9	Renzo Rojas
2025-10-18 34d	GP	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	81	9	9	11.5	F	97	92	115	71	67	78	65.2	Miguel Arroyo
2025-09-14 29d	GP	5.0f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	80	6	8	6.5	F	96	71	67	72	68	76	5.6	Miguel Arroyo
2025-08-16 21d	GP	8.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	80	11	12	17.8	S	81	87	90	71	66	79	36.6	Jonathan Ocasio
2025-07-26 114d·3.4×	GP	5.0f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	80	8	10	10.2	F	84	91	91	77	71	79	11.0	Jonathan Ocasio
2025-04-03	GP	8.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	82	8	8	9.5	F	86	86	89	76	74	81	17.5	Renzo Rojas

5 Cousin Vinny

3G 110 lbs L P

0.4%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-4.4

EDGE vs ML

20/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig72 -10 vs par

Needs +20~<1% run that

Class72.7 -7.6 vs race -0.4 gap

MC2.2% fair 50-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.29

Faced77.5 -1.9 vs today

Pace EP83.0 best 91.5

Pace LP88.2 best 111.7

Energy0.56

Connections

JockJ Santosκ 0.0was Brandon Boulanger · +0.7

TrnJavier Morzanκ -0.0

Record

	Sts	Win%	Fig
Life	7	0%	68.1
2026	7	0%	68.1
2025	0	—	—
GP	4	0%	68.1
Synthetic	3	0%	68.1
Sprint	4	0%	62.8
Wet	0	—	—

WORKS ★06-07 GP 3 Furlongs :34.74 B 58

SIREWinchill 79 29%ile turf 14%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-12 14d	GP	8.318181818181818f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	75	7	7	36.2	F	86	nan	78	57	42	73	44.5	Brandon Boulanger
2026-06-28 16d	GP	8.5f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	80	6	8	27.0	F	74	99	98	67	62	72	36.5	Ronaldo Rodriguez
2026-06-12 27d	GP	5.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	78	9	9	25.8	F	92	nan	84	63	60	72	33.9	Ronaldo Rodriguez
2026-05-16 64d·2.6×	GP	8.318181818181818f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	79	8	9	22.2	S	82	81	94	68	56	72	31.5	Edgar Perez
2026-03-13 16d	TAM	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	76	8	8	38.5	F	91	94	112	59	43	72	53.2	Jacinto Herrera
2026-02-25 25d	TAM	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	79	11	12	36.5	F	72	86	96	63	53	72	71.1	Angel Morales
2026-01-31	TAM	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	79	8	8	35.5	S	86	88	80	58	38	80	38.1	Angel Morales