TRACKS · 2026-08-01
CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO
ALL CARDS ↗
▸ How to read a horse block
MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σα. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.
R1 S R2 T R3 S R4 T R5 S R6 S R7 T R8 D R9 T
R2 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
GP 2026-08-01 Five Furlongs TURF
88
strength
+5.6 salty
90
win par
fig to beat
HONEST PACE
shape
HONEST
early pace
1st¼ 22.1s / par 22.1
BALANCED
field
figs 82.0–87.1
Purse $70,000. Five Furlongs. (Turf) (Rail at 66 Feet) (Includes $26,600 – FBIF - Florida Bred Incentive Fund) (Includes $3,400 – FOA - Florida Owners Awards). For Maidens, Two Years Old. Weight, 120 Lbs. (If deemed inadvisable to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the Tapeta Course at Five Furlongs) .
TODAY'S CONTENDERS WIN% · FAIR / ML QIK% STY P1C CLASS PROJ COND LAST SUS J×T
1 Nofilterneeded 1% 99-1 / 9/2 15.3% 3rd/1w — 842-6 — — — 18% 3∠
4 King Cousin B 94% 1-9 / 5/2 61.2% 1st/1w 90 +7.8 871-3 — 901 971 S→T 22% ✓+3.4★PRIME2∠
5 Subtle Sir 1% 99-1 / 15/1 5.4% 4th/1w — 825-8 — — — 12% 3∠
7 Veilen 1% 99-1 / 10/1 7.7% 5th/1w — 834-7 — — — 9% 3∠
8 Tilou 3% 30-1 / 8/1 10.4% 2nd/1w 86 +3.4 842-6 — 812 922 J+0.5D→T — 4∠
Pace Projector HONEST PACE 1st¼ 22.1s par 22.1 EP/LP
ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 4 97/96 King Cousin B 8 C★ 84/101 Tilou 1 Nofilterneeded 5 Subtle Sir 7 Veilen
4 King Cousin B ★ PRIME THIN DATA
2C 120 lbs
94.3%
MODEL %
1-9
MODEL FAIR
+65.7
EDGE vs ML
5/2
M/L
Form
Proj Fig87 -3 vs par
Needs fits levelbase 90 vs par 90
Class90.1 +7.8 vs race -3.0 gap
MC37.3% fair 8-5
ConfNORMAL σα 0.43
Faced86.1 -1.8 vs today
Pace EP84.4 best 97.4
Pace LP84.0 best 96.1
Energy0.51
≠ Cross-surface α
Connections
JockLeonel Reyesκ 0.2
TrnBernardo Lopezκ 0.05
J×T9 · 22% win · 78% ITM
Angles
2nd career start 13% -28% First-time turf 10% -26%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 10100%89.8
2026 10100%89.8
2025 0000——
GP 10100%89.8
Turf 0000——
Sprint 10100%89.8
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-18 PMM 4 Furlongs :50.90 B 35 07-11 PMM 4 Furlongs :48.30 B 60 06-20 PMM 4 Furlongs :50.10 B 50 ◆Juanjuanjuan 06-13 PMM 4 Furlongs :49.40 B G 60 06-06 PMM 4 Furlongs :50.05 B 49 05-30 PMM 3 Furlongs :36.90 B 47
SIREWin Win Win 86 92%ile turf 15%
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-06-26 GP 5.0f synthetic Fast MSW 86 2 5 0.1 F 97 nan 96 90 81 86 4.3 Leonel Reyes
8 Tilou THIN DATA
2C 120 lbs
3.2%
MODEL %
30-1
MODEL FAIR
-7.9
EDGE vs ML
8/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig84 -6 vs par
Needs +9~5% run that
Class85.7 +3.4 vs race -1.9 gap
MC19.5% fair 4-1
ConfNORMAL σα 0.38
Faced86.1 -1.8 vs today
Pace EP81.0 best 84.1
Pace LP85.1 best 100.5
Energy0.53
≠ Cross-surface α
Connections
JockSamuel Camacho, Jr.κ 0.12was Heriberto Figueroa · +0.5
TrnHeather Smullenκ 0.21
Angles
2nd career start 13% -28% Heather Smullen: first-time turf 10% -36% First-time turf 10% -26% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 10000%81.4
2026 10000%81.4
2025 0000——
GP 10000%81.4
Turf 0000——
Sprint 10000%81.4
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-25 GP 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 50 07-17 GP 4 Furlongs :49.55 B 58 06-28 GP 3 Furlongs :37.84 B G 34 06-21 GP 3 Furlongs :37.25 B G 37 05-28 GP 3 Furlongs :37.05 B G 47 05-18 GP 4 Furlongs :49.84 B 49
SIRERoadster 96 99%ile
DATETRK DISTSURF COND TYPE STR POS FLDBL PC EP MP LP GIBBS PAR CLS ODDS JOCKEY
2026-07-03 GP 5.0f dirt Fast MSW 86 4 6 7.5 84 94 100 81 73 86 18.3 Heriberto Figueroa
1 Nofilterneeded
2C 120 lbs
1.0%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-17.2
EDGE vs ML
9/2
M/L
Form
Proj Fig84 -6 vs par
MC18.9% fair 9-2
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockEdwin Gonzalezκ 0.2
TrnGerald Bennettκ 0.24
J×T61 · 18% win · 44% ITM
Angles
Gerald Bennett: debut 17% -33% Edwin Gonzalez / Gerald Bennett 15% +69% Debut 11% -25%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
GP 0000——
Turf 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS ★07-20 GP 3 Furlongs :35.87 B 53 07-13 GP 4 Furlongs :49.42 B 54 07-02 GP 4 Furlongs :50.41 B 42 06-25 GP 4 Furlongs :49.47 B G 54 06-14 GP 3 Furlongs :37.16 B 44 06-06 GP 3 Furlongs :37.66 B 38
SIRESpeaker'S Corner 103 100%ile 1st-out 40% (5)
No prior races in database
5 Subtle Sir
2C 120 lbs
0.8%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-5.5
EDGE vs ML
15/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig82 -8 vs par
MC11.1% fair 8-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockMiguel Vasquezκ 0.16
TrnNicholas Palmerκ 0.04
J×T25 · 12% win · 44% ITM
Angles
Miguel Vasquez / Nicholas Palmer 13% -12% Debut 11% -25% Nicholas Palmer: debut 3% -65%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
GP 0000——
Turf 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-25 PMM 3 Furlongs :36.75 B 45 07-04 PMM 4 Furlongs :49.90 B G 49 06-27 PMM 4 Furlongs :51.50 B G 26 06-20 PMM 4 Furlongs :50.70 B 40 06-13 PMM 3 Furlongs :37.55 B 43 06-06 PMM 3 Furlongs :39.35 B 24
SIRELeinster 89 97%ile 1st-out 16% (19) turf 21%
No prior races in database
7 Veilen
2C 120 lbs
0.7%
MODEL %
99-1
MODEL FAIR
-8.4
EDGE vs ML
10/1
M/L
Form
Proj Fig83 -7 vs par
MC13.2% fair 7-1
ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285
⚠ No history — ML-anchored
Connections
JockHeriberto Figueroaκ 0.08
TrnHeather Smullenκ 0.21
J×T56 · 9% win · 27% ITM
Angles
Debut 11% -25% Heriberto Figueroa / Heather Smullen 9% -39% Heather Smullen: debut 3% -36%
Record
Sts1st2nd3rdWin%Fig
Life 0000——
2026 0000——
2025 0000——
GP 0000——
Turf 0000——
Sprint 0000——
Wet 0000——
WORKS 07-25 GP 3 Furlongs :36.47 B 48 07-13 GP 4 Furlongs :49.53 B G 53 07-06 GP 4 Furlongs :50.69 B 42 06-21 GP 4 Furlongs :47.89 B 61 06-14 GP 3 Furlongs :37.33 B G 43 05-31 GP 4 Furlongs :49.69 B 48
SIRELeinster 89 97%ile 1st-out 16% (19) turf 21%
No prior races in database