GP 2026-08-01 · US Racing

TRACKS · 2026-08-01

CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO

▸ How to read a horse block

MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σ_α. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.

R1 S R2 T R3 S R4 T R5 S R6 S R7 T R8 D R9 T

Purse $42,000. One Mile. (Turf) (Rail at 66 Feet) (Includes $7,300 – FBIF - Florida Bred Incentive Fund) (Includes $2,700 – FOA - Florida Owners Awards). For Three Year Olds And Upward Which Have Started For A Claiming Price Of $35,000 Or Less Since August 1, 2024 Or Claiming Price $50,000. Three Year Olds, 122 Lbs.; Older, 126 Lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Other Than Maiden Or Claiming At A Mile Or Over Since May 1 Allowed 2 Lbs. Claiming Price $50,000. (If deemed inadvisable to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the Tapeta Course at One Mile and Seventy Yards) .

TODAY'S CONTENDERS		WIN% · FAIR / ML	QIK%	STY	P1C	CLASS	PROJ	COND	LAST	SUS	J×T
1	Lord Eddard Stark ✓	7% 15-1 / 7/2	14.0%	C	6th/1w	92 +4.0	91¹-3	95¹	88³	101¹	L2S→T	14%	5∠
2	Bail Us Out ✓	4% 25-1 / 9/5	19.7%	S	3rd/1w	92 +4.0	89²-5	92²	84⁵	83⁶	L2S→T	20%	5∠
3	Caller ✓	12% 7-1 / 5/1	13.2%	S	5th/1w	91 +2.7	85⁴-9	89⁴	91²	87⁴	S→T	67%	⚠-1.61∠
4	Goldentown ✓	7% 12-1 / 8/1	8.4%	S	2nd/1w	89 +0.9	77⁶-17	84⁶	88³	90²	J-1.0D→Tspr→rte	—	2∠
5	Quizler ✓	2% 50-1 / 9/2	9.9%	P	1st/2w	90 +2.1	84⁵-10	90³	84⁵	88³	CLMT+0.1J-3.8S→Tspr→rte▲cls	—	⚠-2.22∠
6	Flying Liam ✓	69% 1-2 / 6/1	34.8%	P	4th/3w	90 +2.2	87³-7	86⁵	95¹	86⁵	L1D→Tspr→rte	29%	★PRIME7∠

Pace Projector HONEST PACE 1st¼ 23.7s par 23.7 EP/LP

ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 5 » 95/98 Quizler 4 96/88 Goldentown 2 97/102 Bail Us Out 6 »» 95/101 Flying Liam 3 93/98 Caller 1 C★ 89/116 Lord Eddard Stark

6 Flying Liam ★ PRIME

6G 124 lbs L P

68.8%

MODEL %

1-2

MODEL FAIR

+54.5

EDGE vs ML

6/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig87 -7 vs par

Needs +4~19% run that

Class90.5 +2.2 vs race -3.7 gap

MC17.3% fair 5-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.34

Faced92.1 +1.3 vs today

Pace EP84.7 best 94.5

Pace LP86.2 best 101.3

Energy0.55

Connections

JockMiguel Vasquezκ 0.16was Samy Camacho · +0.1

TrnNolan Ramseyκ 0.26

J×T90 · 29% win · 50% ITM

Angles

Miguel Vasquez / Nolan Ramsey 28% +2% Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23% Nolan Ramsey: off layoff (60d+) 16% -42% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% Nolan Ramsey: first-time turf 12% -3% First-time turf 10% -26%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	25	4	3	4	16%	98.4
2026	5	1	0	1	20%	97.0
2025	8	1	1	1	12%	98.4
GP	14	4	1	3	29%	98.4
Turf	2	0	0	0	0%	86.4
Route	10	1	0	3	10%	98.4
Wet	1	0	0	0	0%	83.4

WORKS 07-25 GP 4 Furlongs :48.43 B 65 07-18 GP 4 Furlongs :49.69 B 53 07-11 GP 4 Furlongs :49.93 B 46 07-04 GP 4 Furlongs :48.98 B 61 06-20 GP 4 Furlongs :48.00 B 72 05-16 GP 4 Furlongs :49.96 B 49

SIRELiam'S Map 85 91%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-05-23 29d	GP	6.5f	dirt	Fast	AOC	91	4	7	5.2	F	91	82	81	95	97	90	4.8	Samy Camacho
2026-04-24 20d	GP	8.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	92	6	6	31.0		90	89	93	85	76	92	2.3	Miguel Vasquez
2026-04-04 35d	KEE	7.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	93	5	9	4.5	F	94	85	88	90	79	91	6.69	Irad Ortiz, Jr.
2026-02-28 34d	GP	8.0f	dirt	Fast	G3	93	3	5	11.8		79	86	101	97	107	91	13.5	Javier Castellano
2026-01-25 37d	GP	7.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	92	1	4	0.0	F	82	75	86	95	109	90	5.1	Javier Castellano
2025-12-19 33d	GP	8.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	91	3	6	3.2		72	71	99	97	103	90	12.5	Junior Alvarado
2025-11-16 23d	GP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	89	1	7	0.0		85	84	97	95	101	89	1.4	Rajiv Maragh
2025-10-24 22d	BAQ	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	89	4	10	5.8	F	60	85	97	93	102	89	2.49	Dylan Davis
2025-10-02 166d·5.0×	BAQ	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Clm	89	2	7	1.8		87	91	83	95	96	89	5.61	Junior Alvarado
2025-04-19	GP	7.0f	dirt	Fast	AOC	92	4	6	4.8	F	72	nan	83	94	101	91	9.5	Rajiv Maragh

3 Caller

5H 126 lbs L S

11.9%

MODEL %

7-1

MODEL FAIR

-4.8

EDGE vs ML

5/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig85 -9 vs par

Needs +5~10% run that

Class91.0 +2.7 vs race -6.2 gap

MC7.9% fair 12-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.33

Faced88.9 -1.9 vs today

Pace EP83.7 best 93.4

Pace LP83.9 best 97.7

Energy0.50

Connections

JockSamy Camachoκ 0.16was Miguel Vasquez · +0.0

TrnJeffery Jonesκ -0.16

J×T6 · 67% win · 67% ITM

Angles

First-time turf 10% -26%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	13	4	4	31%	93.2
2026	4	2	1	50%	93.2
2025	4	2	2	50%	89.3
GP	4	2	1	50%	93.2
Turf	9	2	3	22%	89.3
Route	13	4	4	31%	93.2
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS ★06-16 PMM 4 Furlongs :54.05 B 10 05-16 PMM 4 Furlongs :50.40 B 41 04-16 PMM 4 Furlongs :48.95 B 61 03-07 PMM 5 Furlongs 1:04.45 B 31

SIREDialed In 84 86%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-11 48d	GP	8.318181818181818f	synthetic	Fast	Str Alw	91	2	5	4.0	S	84	96	90	91	91	91	3.5	Miguel Vasquez
2026-05-24 29d	GP	8.318181818181818f	synthetic	Fast	AOC	89	1	8	0.0		93	85	98	89	92	90	2.1	Samy Camacho
2026-04-25 27d	GP	8.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	90	7	9	4.2	F	70	61	80	86	96	89	10.7	Rajiv Maragh
2026-03-29 246d·7.9×	GP	8.318181818181818f	synthetic	Fast	Str Alw	88	1	6	0.0		93	91	97	93	97	87	17.7	Rajiv Maragh
2025-07-26 60d	ELP	9.0f	turf	Firm	Clm	87	2	9	0.2	F	89	82	66	86	90	86	5.97	Amanda Poston
2025-05-27 31d	IND	8.0f	turf	Good	Clm	83	1	12	0.0	F	76	82	64	88	87	86	2.0	Fernando De La Cruz
2025-04-26 20d	TAM	8.0f	turf	Firm	Clm	85	2	8	2.2	F	83	72	73	89	92	85	1.8	Samuel Marin
2025-04-06 107d·3.5×	TAM	8.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	80	1	8	0.0	F	76	76	70	86	89	86	0.5	Jesus Castanon
2024-12-20 21d	TAM	9.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	88	2	5	4.8	S	97	80	80	87	80	85	8.1	Jesus Castanon
2024-11-29	TAM	8.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	83	4	10	1.5		80	84	92	84	78	84	8.2	Samuel Marin

4 Goldentown

5G 124 lbs L S

6.9%

MODEL %

12-1

MODEL FAIR

-4.2

EDGE vs ML

8/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig77 -17 vs par

Needs +2~30% run that

Class89.2 +0.9 vs race -12.2 gap

MC1.2% fair 99-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.21

Faced88.9 -1.9 vs today

Pace EP83.2 best 96.0

Pace LP77.4 best 87.8

Energy0.53

Connections

JockYolber Torresκ 0.05was Samy Camacho · -1.0

TrnJeffery Jonesκ -0.16

Angles

First-time turf 10% -26% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	21	3	2	4	14%	100.6
2026	3	1	0	1	33%	96.4
2025	8	1	1	1	12%	100.6
GP	3	1	0	1	33%	96.4
Turf	6	0	1	2	0%	85.0
Route	6	0	1	1	0%	88.9
Wet	2	0	0	1	0%	85.0

WORKS 06-16 PMM 4 Furlongs :54.10 B 9 05-16 PMM 4 Furlongs :53.90 B 5 04-04 PMM 4 Furlongs :54.95 B 5

SIRESpeightstown 86 94%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-26 33d	GP	6.0f	dirt	Good	Str Alw	90	4	5	5.2	F	96	89	84	88	86	89	2.5	Samy Camacho
2026-05-24 28d	GP	6.5f	dirt	Fast	AOC	90	1	7	0.0	F	90	78	76	96	103	87	9.8	Samy Camacho
2026-04-26 219d·6.6×	GP	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Str Alw	89	3	7	6.2	F	90	82	49	90	91	87	7.3	Rajiv Maragh
2025-09-19 42d	PID	6.5f	synthetic	Fast	Alw	85	6	8	7.0	F	63	93	88	86	93	89	6.6	Rafael Hernandez
2025-08-08 25d	ELP	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Alw	91	6	9	9.2	F	87	nan	82	92	102	89	14.87	Gabriel Saez
2025-07-14 65d·2.0×	ELP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Alw	90	4	8	1.5	F	104	101	102	90	100	88	5.08	Axel Concepcion
2025-05-10 44d	CD	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Clm	86	1	6	0.0	F	80	94	96	101	107	87	1.76	Jose Ortiz
2025-03-27 26d	TP	6.5f	synthetic	Fast	Clm	86	3	8	2.5	F	92	78	98	88	86	86	6.79	Gavin Ashton
2025-03-01 14d	TP	6.5f	synthetic	Fast	AOC	88	8	12	10.5	F	nan	nan	100	85	80	86	9.68	Gavin Ashton
2025-02-15	TP	8.0f	synthetic	Fast	Str Alw	86	6	9	3.8	S	61	83	73	89	89	84	3.79	Gavin Ashton

1 Lord Eddard Stark

8G 124 lbs L C

6.8%

MODEL %

15-1

MODEL FAIR

-15.4

EDGE vs ML

7/2

M/L

Form

Proj Fig91 -3 vs par

Needs +4~14% run that

Class92.3 +4.0 vs race -1.3 gap

MC36.6% fair 9-5

ConfTIGHT σα 0.2

Faced92.0 +1.2 vs today

Pace EP83.1 best 89.3

Pace LP90.7 best 116.0

Energy0.50

Connections

JockLeonel Reyesκ 0.2

TrnJoseph Orsenoκ 0.22

J×T14 · 14% win · 57% ITM

Angles

Joseph Orseno: 2nd off layoff 15% -3% 2nd off layoff 13% -27% Joseph Orseno: first-time turf 11% -19% First-time turf 10% -26% Leonel Reyes / Joseph Orseno 7% +55%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	28	4	4	3	14%	95.0
2026	1	0	0	0	0%	88.1
2025	5	0	0	0	0%	95.0
GP	12	3	3	0	25%	93.7
Turf	14	2	2	1	14%	95.0
Route	19	3	3	1	16%	95.0
Wet	0	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-13 GP 4 Furlongs :53.96 B 8 07-05 GP 4 Furlongs :50.64 B 45 05-25 GP 4 Furlongs :53.98 B 9 05-16 GP 5 Furlongs 1:04.02 B 44 05-08 GP 4 Furlongs :49.32 B 50

SIREHe'S Had Enough 81 44%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-14 274d·4.9×	GP	8.5f	synthetic	Fast	Clm	90	4	6	3.0		86	95	116	88	87	93	3.9	Leonel Reyes
2025-09-13 56d	MTH	12.0f	turf	Firm	Stk	91	4	6	2.5		83	112	111	88	82	93	7.3	Samuel Marin
2025-07-19 35d	MTH	11.0f	turf	Firm	G2	96	8	8	11.0	S	89	91	87	95	102	93	70.3	Edgard Zayas
2025-06-14 76d	DEL	12.0f	turf	Firm	Stk	92	5	9	4.8	S	82	78	64	95	100	92	45.9	Jaime Rodriguez
2025-03-30 64d	TAM	9.0f	turf	Good	Stk	91	7	11	7.0	F	84	89	108	94	100	92	18.7	Leonel Reyes
2025-01-25 49d	GP	12.0f	turf	Firm	G3	95	7	12	2.2	F	99	94	102	94	102	91	62.7	Leonel Reyes
2024-12-07 50d	GP	16.0f	turf	Firm	Stk	92	1	9	0.0	S	90	100	100	88	85	90	60.5	Leonel Reyes
2024-10-18 49d	GP	8.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	91	5	7	7.8	S	90	92	94	89	87	90	13.2	Drayden Van Dyke
2024-08-30 63d	CNL	8.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	91	3	8	1.2		76	97	105	88	87	89	14.0	Jorge Ruiz
2024-06-28	GP	8.5f	synthetic	Fast	Str Alw	90	2	7	3.8	S	83	91	92	86	90	89	9.4	Leonel Reyes

2 Bail Us Out

5G 124 lbs L S

4.0%

MODEL %

25-1

MODEL FAIR

-31.7

EDGE vs ML

9/5

M/L

Form

Proj Fig89 -5 vs par

Needs +5~10% run that

Class92.3 +4.0 vs race -3.2 gap

MC27.8% fair 5-2

ConfTIGHT σα 0.23

Faced90.9 +0.1 vs today

Pace EP84.6 best 96.8

Pace LP80.7 best 102.2

Energy0.49

Connections

JockDiego Herreraκ 0.12

TrnBobby Dibonaκ 0.39

J×T15 · 20% win · 60% ITM

Angles

Bobby Dibona: 2nd off layoff 21% -7% Bobby Dibona: first-time turf 18% -19% Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23% 2nd off layoff 13% -27% First-time turf 10% -26%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	13	2	3	2	15%	95.2
2026	1	0	0	1	0%	83.5
2025	6	0	2	1	0%	92.4
GP	4	1	1	1	25%	92.2
Turf	5	1	1	0	20%	92.4
Route	12	2	3	2	17%	95.2
Wet	0	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-25 GP 4 Furlongs :48.72 B 63 07-18 GP 5 Furlongs 1:02.28 B 64 07-11 GP 4 Furlongs :49.23 B 55 06-06 GP 5 Furlongs 1:01.85 B G 66 05-30 GP 5 Furlongs 1:01.48 B G 67 05-22 GP 5 Furlongs 1:00.68 B 77

SIRELookin At Lucky 83 78%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-12 167d·4.6×	GP	8.318181818181818f	synthetic	Fast	AOC	92	3	5	3.5	S	89	76	77	84	84	92	1.9	Diego Herrera
2025-12-27 76d·2.1×	GP	8.5f	synthetic	Fast	Stk	92	2	8	2.2	F	97	89	89	92	101	91	3.4	Edgard Zayas
2025-10-12 36d	KEE	12.0f	turf	Firm	Alw	92	4	12	2.8	F	80	85	102	92	104	90	8.33	Tyler Gaffalione
2025-09-06 35d	KD	10.5f	turf	Good	AOC	90	4	10	1.8	S	83	88	74	92	94	89	3.93	Tyler Gaffalione
2025-08-02 35d	WO	8.5f	synthetic	Fast	G3	89	6	7	4.8	S	88	84	64	90	94	89	12.75	Fraser Aebly
2025-06-28 27d	WO	9.0f	synthetic	Fast	G3	90	3	8	4.8	F	102	nan	82	92	102	90	6.4	Pietro Moran
2025-06-01 197d·5.5×	WO	8.0f	turf	Firm	AOC	89	2	8	0.8	S	74	nan	77	90	92	89	3.6	Pietro Moran
2024-11-16 28d	WO	9.0f	synthetic	Fast	G2	90	5	8	5.5	F	nan	nan	91	94	104	90	8.7	Fraser Aebly
2024-10-19 42d	WO	9.0f	synthetic	Fast	G3	89	2	7	0.5	F	81	86	102	95	101	90	5.15	Kazushi Kimura
2024-09-07	WO	8.0f	turf	Good	AOC	87	1	8	0.0		91	92	87	84	82	88	5.4	Pietro Moran

5 Quizler

4G 117 lbs L P

1.6%

MODEL %

50-1

MODEL FAIR

-16.6

EDGE vs ML

9/2

M/L

Form

Proj Fig84 -10 vs par

Needs +8~2% run that

Class90.4 +2.1 vs race -6.1 gap

MC9.2% fair 10-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.21

Faced89.3 -1.5 vs today

Pace EP80.9 best 94.7

Pace LP81.3 best 97.6

Energy0.50

Connections

JockPedro Penaκ -0.25was Diego Herrera · -3.8

TrnBeau Chapmanκ 0.3CLAIMEDwas Fernando Abreu · +0.1

Angles

First-time turf 10% -26% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	1st	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	19	4	3	2	21%	90.5
2026	6	2	0	0	33%	90.5
2025	9	2	1	2	22%	90.4
GP	16	4	3	1	25%	90.5
Turf	13	4	2	2	31%	90.5
Route	10	2	2	2	20%	90.4
Wet	0	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-25 PMM 4 Furlongs :49.70 B 50 07-04 PMM 4 Furlongs :48.25 B 67 06-27 PMM 3 Furlongs :38.75 B 24 05-30 GP 3 Furlongs :37.82 B 35 05-17 GP 4 Furlongs :48.97 B 59 03-20 PMM 4 Furlongs :50.70 B 30

SIRECurlin'S Honor 80 36%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-06 42d	GP	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	Clm	88	7	10	6.0		95	92	82	84	80	92	5.0	Diego Herrera
2026-04-25 21d	GP	8.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	90	6	9	3.5	F	68	86	98	88	96	91	11.3	Miguel Vasquez
2026-04-04 8d	GP	5.0f	turf	Good	AOC	89	5	8	4.2	F	72	84	80	86	87	91	4.0	Micah Husbands
2026-03-27 40d	GP	7.5f	turf	Firm	AOC	90	1	7	0.0	F	94	nan	81	90	97	90	2.9	Micah Husbands
2026-02-15 38d	GP	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	Clm	90	6	8	3.2	F	79	76	70	87	92	90	6.3	Jorge Ruiz
2026-01-08 28d	GP	5.0f	turf	Firm	AOC	89	1	8	0.0	F	74	nan	79	88	95	89	7.6	Tyler Gaffalione
2025-12-11 48d	GP	8.5f	synthetic	Fast	Clm	90	6	8	4.8		81	78	88	85	85	89	5.8	Junior Alvarado
2025-10-24 53d	GP	5.0f	turf	Firm	AOC	89	5	7	1.5	F	100	98	103	89	99	88	8.0	Joe Bravo
2025-09-01 44d	CNL	8.0f	turf	Firm	Clm	89	3	6	3.0		94	95	67	89	97	88	2.8	Jorge Ruiz
2025-07-19	MTH	8.0f	turf	Firm	Alw	89	6	13	2.8		94	98	96	88	94	88	14.9	Javier Castellano