GP 2026-08-01 · US Racing

TRACKS · 2026-08-01

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▸ How to read a horse block

MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σ_α. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.

R1 S R2 T R3 S R4 T R5 S R6 S R7 T R8 D R9 T

Purse $36,000. One Mile. (Turf) (Rail at 66 Feet) (Includes $5,600 – FBIF - Florida Bred Incentive Fund) (Includes $2,400 – FOA - Florida Owners Awards). For Maidens, Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward. Three Year Olds, 122 Lbs.; Older, 125 Lbs. Claiming Price $25,000, if for $20,000, allowed 2 Lbs. (If deemed inadvisable to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the Tapeta Course at One Mile and Seventy Yards) .

TODAY'S CONTENDERS		WIN% · FAIR / ML	QIK%	STY	P1C	CLASS	PROJ	COND	LAST	SUS	J×T
1	Janana Han	8% 12-1 / 5/1	11.0%		6th/1w	82 +0.3	82⁵-2	—	83¹	91¹	J-0.8D→Tspr→rte▼cls	20%	4∠
2	Basilica Light	8% 12-1 / 8/1	8.4%	EP	1st/1w	82 +0.3	83³-1	84¹	82²	81⁶	J-3.6	—	⚠-1.4
3	Decisive Maiara	6% 15-1 / 10/1	6.8%	P	5th/1w	83 +1.4	80⁶-4	80³	76⁶	90²		0%
4	Mo Town Soul	18% 9-2 / 9/2	15.5%	EP	3rd/2w	82 +0.8	85¹+1	80³	80⁴	85³		20%	1∠
5	Sweet Taste	1% 99-1 / 15/1	3.3%	C	7th/2w	78 -3.1	79⁷-5	73⁶	73⁷	84⁴	L2J+1.2	—	2∠
6	Serrania	58% 3-5 / 5/2	36.6%	EP	4th/4w	86 +4.2	83³-1	80³	80⁴	80⁷	L2	—	★PRIME2∠
7	Getaholdayourself	1% 99-1 / 8/5	18.4%	E	2nd/4w	82 +0.3	85¹+1	82²	82²	82⁵		—

Pace Projector SPEED DUEL closers favored 1st¼ 23.2s par 23.7 EP/LP

ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 2 HOLDS LP 96/103 Basilica Light 7 »»» 94/98 Getaholdayourself 4 » 98/101 Mo Town Soul 6 »»» 99/94 Serrania 3 LP 94/106 Decisive Maiara 1 86/95 Janana Han 5 » 90/92 Sweet Taste

On the lead: 2, 7 · race sets up for closers

6 Serrania ★ PRIME THIN DATA

3F 122 lbs L EP

58.2%

MODEL %

3-5

MODEL FAIR

+29.6

EDGE vs ML

5/2

M/L

Form

Proj Fig83 -1 vs par

Needs +1~40% run that

Class85.6 +4.2 vs race -2.6 gap

MC12.7% fair 7-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.34

Faced84.9 +3.2 vs today

Pace EP85.1 best 98.5

Pace LP80.5 best 93.6

Energy0.53

Connections

JockSamuel Camacho, Jr.κ 0.12was Miguel Vasquez · -0.4

TrnFausto Gutierrezκ 0.3

Angles

2nd off layoff 13% -27% Fausto Gutierrez: 2nd off layoff 12% -41%

Record

	Sts	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	3	1	0%	85.6
2026	3	1	0%	85.6
2025	0	0	—	—
GP	3	1	0%	85.6
Turf	1	1	0%	79.9
Route	1	1	0%	79.9
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-02 PMM 4 Furlongs :50.10 B 56 ◆Sweet Taste·71 06-20 PMM 4 Furlongs :51.00 B 38 04-04 PMM 4 Furlongs :52.30 B 27 ◆Solemne·81 03-12 PMM 4 Furlongs :50.90 B G 40 03-05 PMM 4 Furlongs :50.90 B G 41 ◆Sofocles

SIREHard Spun 84 86%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-12 92d	GP	8.0f	turf	Good	Mdn Clm	82	3	6	4.8	F	84	nan	77	80	78	87	2.6	Miguel Vasquez
2026-04-11 23d	GP	5.0f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	86	6	7	6.5	F	98	70	72	86	83	87	22.3	Joe Bravo
2026-03-19	GP	5.0f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	87	5	8	6.8	F	88	74	94	83	74	87	56.7	Mario Gutierrez

4 Mo Town Soul THIN DATA

3F 122 lbs L EP

17.6%

MODEL %

9-2

MODEL FAIR

-0.6

EDGE vs ML

9/2

M/L

Form

Proj Fig85 +1 vs par

Needs +2~31% run that

Class82.2 +0.8 vs race +2.8 gap

MC19.9% fair 4-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.33

Faced80.6 -1.1 vs today

Pace EP85.4 best 97.6

Pace LP83.4 best 100.8

Energy0.53

Connections

JockLeonel Reyesκ 0.2

TrnRonald Spatzκ 0.19

J×T44 · 20% win · 50% ITM

Angles

Leonel Reyes / Ronald Spatz 16% +17%

Record

	Sts	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	3	1	1	0%	86.0
2026	3	1	1	0%	86.0
2025	0	0	0	—	—
GP	3	1	1	0%	86.0
Turf	1	0	0	0%	80.3
Route	2	1	0	0%	86.0
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 06-29 GP 4 Furlongs :49.78 B 47 05-25 GP 5 Furlongs 1:01.58 B 70 05-17 GP 5 Furlongs 1:02.23 B 47 ★04-24 GP 5 Furlongs 1:02.17 B 63 04-12 GP 4 Furlongs :48.87 B G 57 03-31 GP 4 Furlongs :50.63 B 48 ◆Victorious Secret

SIREMo Town 83 77%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-12 36d	GP	8.0f	turf	Good	Mdn Clm	82	4	6	7.2	F	86	nan	84	80	76	82	1.7	Leonel Reyes
2026-06-06 37d	GP	8.318181818181818f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	81	2	7	3.8	F	98	98	101	86	81	80	5.9	Leonel Reyes
2026-04-30	GP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	79	3	5	10.2	F	88	78	76	80	64	82	3.5	Miguel Vasquez

2 Basilica Light

5M 118 lbs L EP

8.0%

MODEL %

12-1

MODEL FAIR

-3.1

EDGE vs ML

8/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig83 -1 vs par

Needs +1~40% run that

Class81.7 +0.3 vs race +1.2 gap

MC25.5% fair 3-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.28

Faced81.9 +0.2 vs today

Pace EP85.3 best 95.9

Pace LP82.4 best 103.1

Energy0.53

Connections

JockPedro Penaκ -0.25was Jonathan Ocasio · -3.6

TrnCrafton DeSouzaκ 0.06

Record

	Sts	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	14	2	2	0%	89.1
2026	6	2	2	0%	89.1
2025	5	0	0	0%	83.5
GP	14	2	2	0%	89.1
Turf	3	0	2	0%	84.1
Route	12	2	2	0%	89.1
Wet	1	0	0	0%	59.6

WORKS ★07-28 PMM 3 Furlongs :37.15 B 44 03-06 PMM 4 Furlongs :51.85 B 24

SIRESt Patrick'S Day 82 62%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-05 29d	GP	8.5f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	83	3	7	5.2		81	102	81	82	77	81	12.4	Jonathan Ocasio
2026-06-06 34d	GP	8.318181818181818f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	81	4	7	11.8	F	96	90	87	82	74	82	3.2	Jonathan Ocasio
2026-05-03 30d	GP	8.318181818181818f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	82	2	6	1.2	F	95	85	65	84	79	81	4.0	Jonathan Ocasio
2026-04-03 43d	GP	8.318181818181818f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	80	2	6	3.8		96	nan	83	89	87	80	5.7	Jonathan Ocasio
2026-02-19 21d	GP	8.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	84	7	9	11.8		75	98	103	80	72	81	29.8	Jonathan Ocasio
2026-01-29 158d·5.3×	GP	8.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	81	3	7	1.2		94	84	84	84	80	79	18.3	Jonathan Ocasio
2025-08-24 22d	GP	8.5f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	81	4	7	2.0	F	80	75	76	82	84	78	14.8	Lucky Mbatha
2025-08-02 14d	GP	8.318181818181818f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	78	4	10	6.5	S	89	nan	73	84	74	76	21.5	Jesus Rios
2025-07-19 177d·5.9×	GP	8.5f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	79	4	9	5.5	F	79	91	88	80	75	74	53.1	Luis Fuenmayor
2025-01-23	GP	8.5f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	80	7	7	86.0		89	91	80	49	38	75	60.9	Reynier Arrieta

1 Janana Han THIN DATA

4F 125 lbs

7.9%

MODEL %

12-1

MODEL FAIR

-8.8

EDGE vs ML

5/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig82 -2 vs par

Needs +1~40% run that

Class81.7 +0.3 vs race 0.0 gap

MC13.6% fair 6-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.48

Faced85.4 +3.7 vs today

Pace EP81.6 best 86.3

Pace LP83.7 best 94.9

Energy0.51

≠ Cross-surface α

Connections

JockYolber Torresκ 0.05was Diego Herrera · -0.8

TrnGuillermo Rangelκ -0.01

J×T5 · 20% win · 20% ITM

Angles

Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23% 2nd career start 13% -28% First-time turf 10% -26% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26%

Record

	Sts	Win%	Fig
Life	1	0%	82.8
2026	1	0%	82.8
2025	0	—	—
GP	1	0%	82.8
Turf	0	—	—
Route	0	—	—
Wet	0	—	—

WORKS ★07-27 OHC 4 Furlongs :51.20 B G 50 ★07-04 OHC 4 Furlongs :50.00 H 65 06-20 OHC 4 Furlongs :52.10 B 45 06-13 OHC 3 Furlongs :39.10 B G 39 ★05-31 OHC 5 Furlongs 1:05.10 B 60 ★05-25 OHC 4 Furlongs :50.10 B 63

SIREJustify 88 96%ile turf 18%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-12	GP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	85	7	7	12.2	F	86	nan	95	83	79	86	13.9	Diego Herrera

3 Decisive Maiara

3F 122 lbs L P

6.3%

MODEL %

15-1

MODEL FAIR

-2.8

EDGE vs ML

10/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig80 -4 vs par

Needs +5~10% run that

Class82.8 +1.4 vs race -2.9 gap

MC6.0% fair 15-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.2

Faced81.9 +0.2 vs today

Pace EP86.8 best 93.9

Pace LP87.6 best 106.1

Energy0.53

Connections

JockMiguel Vasquezκ 0.16was Samy Camacho · +0.1

TrnJoseph Catanese IIIκ -0.04

J×T6 · 0% win · 83% ITM

Record

	Sts	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	10	1	4	0%	81.7
2026	7	1	4	0%	81.7
2025	3	0	0	0%	80.7
GP	10	1	4	0%	81.7
Turf	6	1	2	0%	81.2
Route	6	1	3	0%	81.7
Wet	1	0	0	0%	72.1

WORKS 07-25 GP 3 Furlongs :37.67 B 38 06-28 GP 4 Furlongs :48.73 B 48 05-24 GP 4 Furlongs :48.84 B 51 05-17 GP 4 Furlongs :48.47 B 60 04-26 GP 3 Furlongs :36.96 B 42 04-19 GP 4 Furlongs :51.22 B 26

SIREDecisive Moment 83 73%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-05 29d	GP	8.5f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	83	6	7	8.0		80	70	101	76	75	83	2.6	Samy Camacho
2026-06-06 34d	GP	8.318181818181818f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	81	3	7	6.0	F	94	89	89	82	79	83	2.6	Miguel Vasquez
2026-05-03 38d	GP	8.318181818181818f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	82	3	6	3.5	F	94	96	81	80	77	83	3.0	Miguel Vasquez
2026-03-26 27d	GP	8.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	82	2	5	2.2	F	94	90	106	80	82	82	7.5	Miguel Vasquez
2026-02-27 28d	GP	8.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	82	7	10	5.8	F	94	84	83	76	76	82	11.0	Mia Nicholls
2026-01-30 28d	GP	8.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	81	3	10	4.8		75	87	98	79	77	81	8.3	Jose Morelos
2026-01-02 77d·2.3×	GP	7.5f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	82	3	7	4.2		85	93	105	81	78	79	11.1	Jose Morelos
2025-10-17 35d	GP	7.5f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	80	6	10	8.0		83	84	91	81	70	78	7.5	Jose Morelos
2025-09-12 35d	GP	6.0f	dirt	Muddy (Sealed)	MSW	86	5	6	18.8		81	96	78	72	56	78	2.7	Jose Morelos
2025-08-08	GP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	85	4	6	15.5	F	91	96	104	79	69	85	33.1	Jose Morelos

7 Getaholdayourself

3F 122 lbs L E

1.0%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-37.5

EDGE vs ML

8/5

M/L

Form

Proj Fig85 +1 vs par

Needs +8~6% run that

Class81.7 +0.3 vs race +3.2 gap

MC17.1% fair 5-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.22

Faced81.8 +0.1 vs today

Pace EP85.6 best 93.6

Pace LP78.2 best 98.0

Energy0.55

Connections

JockDiego Herreraκ 0.12

TrnLarry Sterling, Jr.κ 0.18

Record

	Sts	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	5	2	1	0%	82.1
2026	5	2	1	0%	82.1
2025	0	0	0	—	—
GP	1	1	0	0%	82.1
Turf	3	2	1	0%	82.1
Route	3	2	1	0%	82.1
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 06-28 GP 4 Furlongs :49.42 B 52 05-01 KEE 4 Furlongs :48.40 B 63 03-13 NJF 4 Furlongs :50.20 B 46

SIRECollected 83 74%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-05 38d	GP	8.5f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	83	2	7	0.0		94	86	71	82	82	80	2.0	Diego Herrera
2026-05-28 47d	CD	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	82	10	10	37.0	F	90	97	98	64	47	81	3.97	Luis Saez
2026-04-11 58d	TAM	8.5f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	81	3	7	1.2	F	91	82	69	81	80	80	2.5	Sonny Leon
2026-02-12 33d	TAM	8.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	79	2	10	1.0	F	93	86	70	80	76	77	8.8	Sonny Leon
2026-01-10	TAM	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	85	9	10	27.8	F	78	88	nan	64	56	85	19.4	Samy Camacho

5 Sweet Taste THIN DATA

3F 122 lbs L C

1.0%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-5.2

EDGE vs ML

15/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig79 -5 vs par

Needs +12~2% run that

Class78.3 -3.1 vs race +0.5 gap

MC5.2% fair 20-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.37

Faced84.4 +2.7 vs today

Pace EP83.1 best 90.0

Pace LP82.8 best 92.5

Energy0.52

Connections

JockJonathan Ocasioκ 0.11was Pedro Pena · +1.2

TrnFausto Gutierrezκ 0.3

Angles

2nd off layoff 13% -27% Fausto Gutierrez: 2nd off layoff 12% -41%

Record

	Sts	Win%	Fig
Life	2	0%	72.8
2026	2	0%	72.8
2025	0	—	—
GP	2	0%	72.8
Turf	1	0%	72.8
Route	1	0%	72.8
Wet	0	—	—

WORKS 07-02 PMM 4 Furlongs :50.10 B 56 ◆Serrania·86 06-20 PMM 4 Furlongs :51.00 B 36 05-22 PMM 3 Furlongs :37.45 B 32 03-12 PMM 4 Furlongs :51.70 B G 28 03-06 PMM 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 58

SIREKitten'S Joy 83 80%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-12 115d	GP	8.0f	turf	Good	Mdn Clm	82	6	6	12.5	F	86	85	81	73	71	79	17.4	Pedro Pena
2026-03-19	GP	5.0f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	87	8	8	17.2	F	90	88	92	71	59	87	43.3	Edwin Gonzalez