CNL 2026-08-01 · US Racing

TRACKS · 2026-08-01

CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO

▸ How to read a horse block

MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σ_α. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.

R1 T R2 D R3 T R4 T R5 D R6 D R7 D R8 T R9 T R10 T R11 T R12 T

Purse $32,000. One Mile. (Inner turf) (plus Up To 50% Vbf) Inner Turf For Maidens, Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward. Three Year Olds, 118 Lbs.; Older, 124 Lbs. Claiming Price $16,000.

TODAY'S CONTENDERS		WIN% · FAIR / ML	QIK%	STY	P1C	CLASS	PROJ	COND	LAST	SUS	J×T
1	Mendelssohn Adi	4% 25-1 / 15/1	4.9%	S	4th/1w	76 -2.0	86¹+3	81³	81⁴	81³	J+1.3▲cls	19%	2∠
2	Jubaleve	1% 99-1 / 20/1	3.1%	S	9th/1w	76 -2.8	81⁷-2	—	77⁷	—	L3★goldJ-0.9spr→rte▼cls	—	⚠-1.52∠
3	Kiss Me for Luck	0% 99-1 / 30/1	1.9%	EP	1st/1w	77 -1.2	78⁸-5	76⁴	69⁹	—	L2J+0.5	—	1∠
5	Tricker	5% 20-1 / 12/1	6.3%	EP	2nd/2w	80 +1.4	83⁵+0	83¹	78⁵	—	L2J+0.8	0%	✓+1.62∠
6	Nova's Time	0% 99-1 / 30/1	1.8%		6th/1w	78 -0.4	75⁹-8	—	66¹⁰	76⁵	J-1.7S→Tspr→rte▼cls	0%	⚠-2.03∠
7	Mezzo Soprano	1% 99-1 / 20/1	3.2%	S	10th/1w	78 -0.6	82⁶-1	—	78⁵	78⁴	L1D→T▼cls	5%	6∠
8	It's Fine	65% 1-2 / 5/2	41.7%		5th/2w	84 +5.7	86¹+3	—	85¹	89²	L12S◈freshT+0.3J-0.5spr→rte▼cls	40%	✓+1.1★PRIME5∠
9	Rich Lady	0% 99-1 / 30/1	1.8%	C	11th/2w	74 -4.2	71¹¹-12	56⁶	66¹⁰	91¹	L2J+1.8spr→rte	—	2∠
10	Gotta Be Da Shoes	5% 20-1 / 8/1	8.0%	S	8th/3w	82 +3.2	86¹+3	—	83²	76⁵	★goldspr→rte	—
11	Full Exchange	1% 99-1 / 30/1	2.0%	P	7th/3w	77 -1.3	75⁹-8	73⁵	73⁸	—	L3★goldJ+0.7	0%	1∠
12	Light de Night	18% 9-2 / 2/1	25.4%	P	3rd/3w	80 +2.1	86¹+3	82²	82³	—	L3★gold	34%	✓+1.23∠

Pace Projector SPEED DUEL closers favored 1st¼ 23.2s par 23.7 EP/LP

ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 3 LP 97/104 Kiss Me for Luck 5 » 99/96 Tricker 12 »» 98/86 Light de Night 1 75/92 Mendelssohn Adi 8 » 85/94 It's Fine 6 87/64 Nova's Time 11 »» 106/96 Full Exchange 10 LP »» 99/107 Gotta Be Da Shoes 2 95/94 Jubaleve 7 84/85 Mezzo Soprano 9 » 86/98 Rich Lady

On the lead: 3, 5 · race sets up for closers

8 It's Fine ★ PRIME THIN DATA

3F 118 lbs L

65.0%

MODEL %

1-2

MODEL FAIR

+36.4

EDGE vs ML

5/2

M/L

Form

Proj Fig86 +3 vs par

Needs fits levelbase 85 vs par 83

Class84.0 +5.7 vs race +2.4 gap

MC14.8% fair 6-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.36

Faced80.0 +2.3 vs today

Pace EP81.2 best 84.8

Pace LP83.4 best 93.7

Energy0.50

Connections

JockJareth Loveberryκ 0.08was Axel Concepcion · -0.5

TrnHugh McMahonκ 0.23was Ethan West · +0.3

J×T5 · 40% win · 60% ITM

Angles

Hugh McMahon: off layoff (60d+) 15% -7% 2nd career start 13% -28% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% First-time Lasix 12% -25% Hugh McMahon: first-time Lasix 10% -58%

Record

	Sts	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	1	1	0%	84.8
2026	0	0	—	—
2025	1	1	0%	84.8
CNL	1	1	0%	84.8
Turf	1	1	0%	84.8
Route	0	0	—	—
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-24 CNL 5 Furlongs 1:00.60 B 71

SIREVolatile 85 91%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2025-08-27	CNL	5.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	80	2	10	0.5		85	94	94	85	76	80	1.8	Axel Concepcion

12 Light de Night

3F 118 lbs L P

17.8%

MODEL %

9-2

MODEL FAIR

-15.5

EDGE vs ML

2/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig86 +3 vs par

Needs +1~40% run that

Class80.4 +2.1 vs race +5.2 gap

MC14.2% fair 6-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.34

Faced81.4 +3.7 vs today

Pace EP85.5 best 97.8

Pace LP70.1 best 85.7

Energy0.54

Connections

JockPaco Lopezκ 0.23

TrnJorge Duarte, Jr.κ 0.4

J×T35 · 34% win · 54% ITM

Angles

Paco Lopez / Jorge Duarte, Jr. 30% -15% 3yo, 3rd off layoff 15% -21% 3rd off layoff 14% -22%

Record

	Sts	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	5	2	0%	82.1
2026	2	1	0%	82.1
2025	3	1	0%	81.2
CNL	2	1	0%	82.1
Turf	2	2	0%	82.1
Route	2	1	0%	82.1
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 06-18 CNL 4 Furlongs :48.00 B 63 ◆Hovekoma·86

SIRECity Of Light 86 93%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-16 45d	CNL	8.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	79	2	11	1.5		—	—	—	82	88	79	3.5	Paco Lopez
2026-06-01 212d·4.7×	PID	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	78	6	7	6.2		98	86	72	81	77	80	4.4	Antonio Gallardo
2025-11-01 34d	LRL	5.5f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	81	2	9	2.2		92	98	86	81	65	77	6.0	Victor Carrasco
2025-09-28 36d	BAQ	8.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	86	11	11	33.0	F	75	74	64	73	65	76	63.12	Romero Maragh
2025-08-23	CNL	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	84	8	9	41.0	F	94	63	29	67	43	84	5.2	Horacio Karamanos

5 Tricker

3F 118 lbs L EP

5.2%

MODEL %

20-1

MODEL FAIR

-2.5

EDGE vs ML

12/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig83 0 vs par

Needs +3~25% run that

Class79.7 +1.4 vs race +3.0 gap

MC9.2% fair 10-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.35

Faced80.8 +3.1 vs today

Pace EP85.2 best 99.1

Pace LP82.5 best 96.3

Energy0.52

Connections

JockDeclan Cannonκ 0.1was Ubardo Casique · +0.8

TrnJason McCutchenκ -0.23

J×T3 · 0% win · 0% ITM

Angles

2nd off layoff 13% -27% Jason McCutchen: 2nd off layoff 7% -55%

Record

	Sts	Win%	Fig
Life	4	0%	82.9
2026	1	0%	77.9
2025	3	0%	82.9
CNL	4	0%	82.9
Turf	3	0%	82.9
Route	2	0%	82.9
Wet	0	—	—

WORKS 07-10 CNL 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 53 06-20 CNL 5 Furlongs 1:01.00 B G 75

SIREPractical Joke 86 92%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-16 306d·18.0×	CNL	8.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	79	6	11	7.0		—	—	—	78	83	80	41.7	Ubardo Casique
2025-09-13 17d	CNL	8.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	81	5	10	9.0	S	86	94	96	83	78	79	60.1	Weston Hamilton
2025-08-27 14d	CNL	5.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	80	4	10	4.5		99	85	68	79	69	74	4.5	Micah Husbands
2025-08-13	CNL	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn	82	6	7	22.0	F	86	nan	90	73	60	82	17.9	Ben Curtis

10 Gotta Be Da Shoes

4F 124 lbs L S

4.8%

MODEL %

20-1

MODEL FAIR

-6.3

EDGE vs ML

8/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig86 +3 vs par

Needs +3~22% run that

Class81.5 +3.2 vs race +4.7 gap

MC23.6% fair 3-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.27

Faced79.8 +2.1 vs today

Pace EP81.5 best 98.8

Pace LP86.8 best 106.6

Energy0.49

Connections

JockSamuel Marinκ 0.22was Paco Lopez · -0.1

TrnDamon Dilodovicoκ 0.27

Record

	Sts	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	9	2	1	0%	83.2
2026	3	1	1	0%	83.1
2025	6	1	0	0%	83.2
CNL	2	1	0	0%	83.2
Turf	6	2	1	0%	83.2
Route	0	0	0	—	—
Wet	1	0	0	0%	77.9

WORKS 07-26 LRL 3 Furlongs :37.60 B 36 06-26 LRL 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 47 06-06 LRL 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 52 05-10 LRL 4 Furlongs :50.80 B G 36 05-03 LRL 4 Furlongs :49.68 B 53 04-25 LRL 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 46

SIREHoly Boss 82 68%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-09 27d	CNL	5.0f	turf	Good	Mdn Clm	80	2	9	0.2	F	63	83	88	83	79	81	1.9	Paco Lopez
2026-06-12 21d	LRL	5.5f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	80	3	12	1.0		97	87	84	78	67	80	3.2	Raul Mena
2026-05-22 195d·8.9×	LRL	5.5f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	Mdn Clm	79	5	9	7.5	S	83	84	107	78	63	79	13.2	Ismerio Villalobos
2025-11-08 21d	LRL	5.5f	turf	Good	Mdn Clm	80	5	12	4.8	S	99	90	89	81	66	78	25.4	Johan Rosado
2025-10-18 20d	LRL	5.5f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	80	7	12	6.2	S	70	88	nan	82	67	77	14.3	Johan Rosado
2025-09-28 22d	LRL	6.0f	dirt	Good	Mdn Clm	79	8	8	24.8	S	85	93	88	66	42	80	7.8	Johan Rosado
2025-09-06 14d	LRL	5.5f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	78	2	7	1.8	S	81	83	82	80	62	78	3.8	Johan Rosado
2025-08-23 55d·2.5×	CNL	5.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	81	5	10	3.2	F	94	91	99	83	91	72	88.1	Weston Hamilton
2025-06-29	LRL	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	80	5	5	42.8	S	86	88	88	61	38	80	5.3	Weston Hamilton

1 Mendelssohn Adi THIN DATA

3F 118 lbs L S

3.7%

MODEL %

25-1

MODEL FAIR

-2.5

EDGE vs ML

15/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig86 +3 vs par

Needs +6~11% run that

Class76.3 -2.0 vs race +10.0 gap

MC21.0% fair 4-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.33

Faced77.2 -0.5 vs today

Pace EP77.4 best 74.7

Pace LP84.5 best 92.1

Energy0.51

Connections

JockJorge Ruizκ 0.21was Angel Cruz · +1.3

TrnCarlos Mancillaκ 0.15

J×T43 · 19% win · 44% ITM

Angles

Jorge Ruiz / Carlos Mancilla 17% +17% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	Win%	Fig
Life	2	0%	80.9
2026	2	0%	80.9
2025	0	—	—
CNL	0	—	—
Turf	1	0%	80.9
Route	1	0%	80.9
Wet	1	0%	73.6

WORKS 07-15 LRL 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 50 05-07 LRL 4 Furlongs :51.40 B 34 04-18 LRL 4 Furlongs :49.60 B 58 03-22 LRL 4 Furlongs :51.00 B G 35

SIREMendelssohn 83 80%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-18 27d	PEN	8.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	74	4	9	5.5		72	93	90	81	72	73	8.9	Angel Cruz
2026-05-22	LRL	5.5f	dirt	Sloppy (Sealed)	Mdn Clm	80	8	8	23.0	S	75	nan	92	74	53	81	10.1	Jorge Ruiz

7 Mezzo Soprano THIN DATA

3F 118 lbs L S

1.3%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-3.5

EDGE vs ML

20/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig82 -1 vs par

Needs +7~8% run that

Class77.7 -0.6 vs race +4.1 gap

MC5.5% fair 15-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.29

Faced80.1 +2.4 vs today

Pace EP79.7 best 84.0

Pace LP80.8 best 84.7

Energy0.53

≠ Cross-surface α

Connections

JockKevin Gomezκ 0.13

TrnMadison Meyersκ 0.1

J×T22 · 5% win · 36% ITM

Angles

Madison Meyers: first-time turf 14% +98% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% First-time turf 10% -26% Madison Meyers: off layoff (60d+) 9% -5% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26% Kevin Gomez / Madison Meyers 6% -6%

Record

	Sts	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	3	1	0%	78.3
2026	2	1	0%	78.3
2025	1	0	0%	70.9
CNL	0	0	—	—
Turf	0	0	—	—
Route	2	1	0%	78.3
Wet	1	0	0%	70.9

WORKS 07-25 DEL 4 Furlongs :50.80 B 42 07-14 DEL 4 Furlongs :50.40 B 51 07-08 DEL 4 Furlongs :49.80 B 54 06-06 LRL 4 Furlongs :50.00 B G 44 05-29 LRL 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 46 05-20 LRL 4 Furlongs :51.20 B 38 ◆Taco Cat Backwards·93

SIREMendelssohn 83 80%ile turf 15%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-02-13 27d	LRL	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	80	7	9	14.0	S	79	70	76	78	61	79	11.6	Kevin Gomez
2026-01-17 56d	LRL	8.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	79	2	6	0.8	S	84	nan	84	78	68	73	7.4	Kevin Gomez
2025-11-22	LRL	6.0f	dirt	Muddy (Sealed)	Mdn Clm	81	8	9	24.0		75	71	85	71	46	81	22.9	Johan Rosado

2 Jubaleve

3F 118 lbs L S

1.1%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-3.7

EDGE vs ML

20/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig81 -2 vs par

Needs +7~8% run that

Class75.5 -2.8 vs race +5.8 gap

MC6.2% fair 15-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.28

Faced79.2 +1.5 vs today

Pace EP84.8 best 94.9

Pace LP82.9 best 93.7

Energy0.53

Connections

JockSofia Vivesκ 0.09was Jean Briceno · -0.9

TrnKaren Dennehyκ 0.15

Angles

3yo, 3rd off layoff 15% -21% 3rd off layoff 14% -22%

Record

	Sts	Win%	Fig
Life	3	0%	77.4
2026	3	0%	77.4
2025	0	—	—
CNL	2	0%	77.4
Turf	2	0%	77.4
Route	0	—	—
Wet	0	—	—

WORKS ★06-25 CNL 5 Furlongs 1:02.00 B 50 06-20 CNL 4 Furlongs :50.60 B G 37

SIREJuba 81 45%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-10 8d	CNL	5.5f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	80	8	12	7.5	F	94	87	nan	77	76	73	92.6	Jean Briceno
2026-07-02 98d	CNL	5.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	77	8	9	14.5		95	84	81	77	70	72	53.9	Jean Briceno
2026-03-26	CT	4.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	80	7	7	27.2	F	80	100	94	73	54	80	14.6	Sunday Diaz, Jr.

11 Full Exchange

4F 124 lbs L P

0.7%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-2.5

EDGE vs ML

30/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig75 -8 vs par

Needs +10~1% run that

Class77.0 -1.3 vs race -1.7 gap

MC1.3% fair 99-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.26

Faced78.3 +0.6 vs today

Pace EP84.7 best 106.5

Pace LP84.3 best 95.5

Energy0.54

Connections

JockSonny Leonκ 0.16was Sofia Vives · +0.7

TrnAbraham Gardeaκ 0.06

J×T3 · 0% win · 33% ITM

Angles

3rd off layoff 14% -22%

Record

	Sts	Win%	Fig
Life	11	0%	79.6
2026	5	0%	73.5
2025	3	0%	73.3
CNL	1	0%	73.1
Turf	5	0%	79.6
Route	7	0%	79.0
Wet	0	—	—

WORKS ★06-13 OHC 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 67 ★05-30 OHC 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 67 05-09 CAA 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 05-02 CAA 4 Furlongs :49.40 B

SIREAwesome Slew 83 79%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-16 25d	CNL	8.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	79	10	11	10.8		—	—	—	73	80	77	50.1	Sofia Vives
2026-06-21 114d·2.7×	GP	8.5f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	79	4	8	9.5	F	91	80	94	74	66	77	29.9	Luis Fuenmayor
2026-02-27 26d	TAM	6.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	77	8	11	12.8	F	73	nan	66	71	62	77	21.2	Ronaldo Rodriguez
2026-02-01 16d	TAM	7.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	78	5	6	10.8	F	90	101	96	71	68	78	5.3	Ronaldo Rodriguez
2026-01-16 258d·6.0×	TAM	8.0f	turf	Good	Mdn Clm	79	7	10	9.0		106	91	92	73	58	78	37.6	Ronaldo Rodriguez
2025-05-03 48d	GP	8.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	82	7	8	9.5	S	77	92	87	73	77	78	42.4	Micah Husbands
2025-03-16 23d	TAM	8.5f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	77	9	12	21.5	F	79	90	111	68	59	80	5.6	Sara Hess
2025-02-21 118d·2.7×	TAM	8.181818181818182f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	81	10	10	44.0	S	79	77	83	67	49	84	13.3	Marcos Meneses
2024-10-26 43d	GP	7.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	85	4	7	2.2	S	81	92	96	80	69	82	21.0	Drayden Van Dyke
2024-09-13	GP	8.318181818181818f	synthetic	Fast	Mdn Clm	79	4	8	1.8	S	107	93	87	79	63	79	3.8	Jose Torrealba

3 Kiss Me for Luck

3F 111 lbs L EP

0.3%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-2.9

EDGE vs ML

30/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig78 -5 vs par

Needs +10~1% run that

Class77.1 -1.2 vs race +0.7 gap

MC2.7% fair 30-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.23

Faced78.7 +1.0 vs today

Pace EP81.5 best 97.1

Pace LP86.3 best 104.5

Energy0.54

Connections

JockLuis Fuenmayorκ 0.05was Jorge Panaijo · +0.5

TrnBen Ramosκ -0.19

Angles

2nd off layoff 13% -27%

Record

	Sts	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	8	2	0%	78.0
2026	6	2	0%	76.1
2025	2	0	0%	78.0
CNL	1	0	0%	68.9
Turf	6	2	0%	76.1
Route	6	2	0%	76.1
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-10 CNL 4 Furlongs :48.20 B 62

SIRESt Patrick'S Day 82 62%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-16 75d·2.1×	CNL	8.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	79	11	11	22.5		—	—	—	69	69	79	39.6	Jorge Panaijo
2026-05-02 27d	TAM	8.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	76	2	10	3.5		78	nan	74	76	67	78	3.6	Wesley Ho
2026-04-05 16d	GP	8.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	81	5	6	14.0	S	62	89	104	75	65	79	20.3	Angel Serpa
2026-03-20 36d	TAM	8.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	78	4	10	3.8	F	96	94	103	74	68	77	14.9	Angel Serpa
2026-02-12 18d	TAM	8.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	79	10	10	15.8	F	78	83	89	70	62	79	16.0	Charlie Marquez
2026-01-25 37d	TAM	8.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	76	2	10	1.0	F	97	88	80	75	69	76	35.9	Angel Serpa
2025-12-19 36d	TAM	6.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	80	9	9	16.0		91	nan	92	72	54	79	30.7	Raymond Torres
2025-11-13	DED	5.0f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	78	7	8	6.2	S	95	91	93	78	62	78	3.0	Elvin Gonzalez

6 Nova's Time THIN DATA

3F 118 lbs L

0.1%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-3.1

EDGE vs ML

30/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig75 -8 vs par

Needs +17~<1% run that

Class77.9 -0.4 vs race -3.0 gap

MC1.4% fair 50-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.42

Faced85.9 +8.2 vs today

Pace EP81.8 best 87.1

Pace LP76.0 best 63.9

Energy0.51

≠ Cross-surface α

Connections

JockUbardo Casiqueκ 0.02was Leonel Reyes · -1.7

TrnBen Ramosκ -0.19

J×T12 · 0% win · 25% ITM

Angles

Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23% 2nd career start 13% -28% First-time turf 10% -26%

Record

	Sts	Win%	Fig
Life	1	0%	65.8
2026	1	0%	65.8
2025	0	—	—
CNL	0	—	—
Turf	0	—	—
Route	0	—	—
Wet	0	—	—

WORKS 07-24 CNL 4 Furlongs :48.20 B 57

SIREFuntastic 82 60%ile turf 8%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-12	GP	5.5f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	86	7	7	24.8	F	87	73	64	66	56	86	24.1	Leonel Reyes

9 Rich Lady THIN DATA

3F 118 lbs L C

0.1%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-3.1

EDGE vs ML

30/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig71 -12 vs par

Needs +22~<1% run that

Class74.1 -4.2 vs race -3.0 gap

MC0.3% fair 99-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.42

Faced77.9 +0.2 vs today

Pace EP82.0 best 86.2

Pace LP87.2 best 98.2

Energy0.53

Connections

JockSheldon Russellκ 0.2was Ubardo Casique · +1.8

TrnMoises Yanezκ -0.03

Angles

2nd off layoff 13% -27% Moises Yanez: 2nd off layoff 12% -5%

Record

	Sts	Win%	Fig
Life	2	0%	66.5
2026	2	0%	66.5
2025	0	—	—
CNL	1	0%	66.5
Turf	2	0%	66.5
Route	1	0%	56.5
Wet	0	—	—

WORKS 07-05 CNL 4 Furlongs :50.20 B 44 ★06-28 CNL 5 Furlongs 1:04.80 B 28 04-19 TAM 4 Furlongs :52.00 B 28 ★03-11 TAM 6 Furlongs 1:17.80 B 43

SIREKhozan 84 84%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-09 116d	CNL	5.0f	turf	Good	Mdn Clm	80	9	9	10.8	F	84	80	98	66	63	72	62.8	Ubardo Casique
2026-03-15	TAM	8.0f	turf	Firm	Mdn Clm	76	10	10	39.0	F	86	92	98	56	42	80	8.6	Ubardo Casique