CNL 2026-08-01 · US Racing

TRACKS · 2026-08-01

CNL CT DMR ELP EMD EVD GP MTH SAR WO

▸ How to read a horse block

MODEL % (strip under the name) is the headline win probability; FAIR is its no-takeout price, EDGE compares it to the morning line. FORM column: Proj Fig (hover for the ability + jockey + trainer + class breakdown), Class + speed−class gap, MC % (pure-speed Monte-Carlo — a big gap vs MODEL % means the model sees something beyond raw speed), and Conf = TIGHT / NORMAL / WIDE / VERY WIDE from σ_α. CONNECTIONS: jockey / trainer with their κ skill effects and the J×T combo record. RECORD: DRF-style splits — Life, this year, last year, this track / today's surface / today's trip (cyan), Wet; green ✓ = has won in that context; Fig = best figure there. FORM also carries avg/best Brohamer pace (EP/LP) + Energy; angle chips live under CONNECTIONS. Below the band: the last 10 running lines.

R1 T R2 D R3 T R4 T R5 D R6 D R7 D R8 T R9 T R10 T R11 T R12 T

Purse $70,000. Six Furlongs. (Outer turf) (Rail at 60 Feet) (plus Up To 50% Vbf) Outer Turf For Maidens, Fillies And Mares Three Years Old And Upward. Three Year Olds, 119 Lbs.; Older, 124 Lbs. (Preference To Horses That Have Not Started For Less Than $25,000 In Last 5 Starts). .

TODAY'S CONTENDERS		WIN% · FAIR / ML	QIK%	STY	P1C	CLASS	PROJ	COND	LAST	SUS	J×T
1	Champagne Brunch	24% 3-1 / 6/1	15.2%	EP	2nd/1w	86 +3.4	80¹⁰-9	82⁶	82⁵	—	L2	10%	⚠-3.23∠
2	Ruthie Bar	0% 99-1 / 20/1	2.0%		9th/1w	—	82⁹-7	—	—	—		5%	3∠
3	Charlotte's Cay	40% 3-2 / 8/5	30.8%		6th/1w	84 +1.3	91¹+2	90¹	90¹	—	L1▲cls	18%	✓+3.4★PRIME5∠
4	Now Or Nevermore	0% 99-1 / 15/1	2.5%		10th/1w	—	83⁸-6	—	—	—		—	1∠
5	Tiz My Standards	0% 99-1 / 20/1	2.0%		8th/1w	76 -6.8	78¹¹-11	—	79⁷	—	D→Trte→spr	—	3∠
6	Role's Mischief	1% 99-1 / 20/1	2.2%	C	12th/1w	77 -5.7	74¹²-15	—	77⁸	84⁵	J+0.7D→T▲cls	—	4∠
7	Vinalia	6% 15-1 / 9/2	9.4%	EP	1st/2w	85 +2.9	84⁶-5	88²	82⁵	86²	L2	40%	3∠
8	On My Time	5% 20-1 / 10/1	5.6%	P	3rd/1w	86 +3.8	87⁴-2	87⁴	83⁴	85⁴	L1	—	2∠
9	Spritzn' Around	0% 99-1 / 4/1	7.9%		7th/2w	—	86⁵-3	—	—	—		34%	3∠
11	Poverty With Aview	4% 25-1 / 8/1	5.8%	P	4th/3w	85 +2.9	90²+1	87⁴	84³	76⁶	L1J+3.0	—	✓+3.02∠
13	Mischievous Twins	1% 99-1 / 10/1	3.8%	S	11th/3w	81 -1.6	84⁶-5	—	75⁹	86²	L1T+0.1J+1.9D→T	44%	5∠
14	Veracious	18% 9-2 / 6/1	12.8%	P	5th/3w	85 +2.9	89³+0	88²	85²	98¹	L1J+0.8▲cls	0%	✓+1.93∠

Pace Projector LONE SPEED front favored 1st¼ 22.4s par 22.4 EP/LP

ON PACE STALKERS MIDPACK CLOSERS ▾ rail 7 LS★ ⚡ » 90/99 Vinalia 1 102/83 Champagne Brunch 8 108/96 On My Time 11 LP »» 91/107 Poverty With Aview 14 »» 102/94 Veracious 3 Charlotte's Cay 9 » Spritzn' Around 5 Tiz My Standards 2 Ruthie Bar 4 Now Or Nevermore 13 LP »» 101/110 Mischievous Twins 6 94/93 Role's Mischief

On the lead: 7 · race sets up for front

3 Charlotte's Cay ★ PRIME THIN DATA

3F 119 lbs L

39.8%

MODEL %

3-2

MODEL FAIR

+1.3

EDGE vs ML

8/5

M/L

Form

Proj Fig91 +2 vs par

Needs fits levelbase 90 vs par 89

Class83.6 +1.3 vs race +7.7 gap

MC26.1% fair 3-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.43

Faced82.4 -2.8 vs today

Connections

JockMychel Sanchezκ 0.18was Dylan Davis · -0.3

TrnMichael Trombettaκ 0.3

J×T294 · 18% win · 47% ITM

Angles

Mychel Sanchez / Michael Trombetta 17% -24% Michael Trombetta: off layoff (60d+) 15% -18% 2nd career start 13% -28% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	1	1	0%	90.2
2026	1	1	0%	90.2
2025	0	0	—	—
CNL	0	0	—	—
Turf	1	1	0%	90.2
Sprint	1	1	0%	90.2
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-11 FAI Four Furlongs 49.00 b 64 03-22 GP 5 Furlongs :59.90 B 79 ◆Souper Crunchy·87 03-15 GP 4 Furlongs :49.22 B 51 03-08 GP 4 Furlongs :49.06 B 53

SIRESpeightstown 86 94%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-05-30	MTH	5.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	82	3	10	5.8		—	—	—	90	85	83	7.8	Dylan Davis

1 Champagne Brunch

4F 124 lbs L EP

24.1%

MODEL %

3-1

MODEL FAIR

+9.8

EDGE vs ML

6/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig80 -9 vs par

Needs +9~2% run that

Class85.7 +3.4 vs race -5.3 gap

MC3.5% fair 30-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.27

Faced85.8 +0.6 vs today

Pace EP84.7 best 102.4

Pace LP77.2 best 83.5

Energy0.54

Connections

JockSonny Leonκ 0.16

TrnAntonio Sanoκ 0.13

J×T20 · 10% win · 15% ITM

Angles

2nd off layoff 13% -27% Sonny Leon / Antonio Sano 10% -34% Antonio Sano: 2nd off layoff 9% -32%

Record

	Sts	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	10	2	3	0%	89.6
2026	3	0	1	0%	82.3
2025	5	1	2	0%	88.7
CNL	1	0	0	0%	82.3
Turf	6	1	2	0%	88.7
Sprint	4	0	1	0%	85.1
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-25 CNL 5 Furlongs 1:03.00 B 41 ★06-19 GP 5 Furlongs 1:00.42 B 87 ◆Bon Vivant·88 06-13 GP 5 Furlongs 1:00.64 B 80 ◆Bon Vivant·88 06-06 GP 3 Furlongs :35.77 B 53

SIREGun Runner 89 97%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-11 139d·2.0×	CNL	5.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	84	4	9	2.8		—	—	—	82	87	85	11.9	Sonny Leon
2026-02-22 17d	GP	8.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	87	7	11	9.0		81	76	78	78	75	85	21.0	Micah Husbands
2026-02-05 159d·2.3×	GP	5.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	84	3	6	2.5		nan	nan	84	80	70	84	3.5	Tyler Gaffalione
2025-08-30 28d	KD	8.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	86	6	11	15.5	F	72	96	83	82	82	85	3.78	Tyler Gaffalione
2025-08-02 83d	SAR	7.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	88	8	10	26.0	F	102	nan	53	83	80	88	20.0	Manuel Franco
2025-05-11 70d	GP	8.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	84	2	6	3.0		97	89	80	89	90	87	1.4	Francisco Arrieta
2025-03-02 35d	GP	8.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	88	3	8	3.8	F	83	80	79	87	84	86	2.1	Irad Ortiz, Jr.
2025-01-26 70d	GP	8.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	86	3	12	6.2		86	93	99	85	87	84	5.1	Irad Ortiz, Jr.
2024-11-17 30d	GP	8.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	81	2	8	2.0	S	94	nan	87	90	82	78	1.9	Drayden Van Dyke
2024-10-18	GP	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	86	4	11	19.2		78	68	73	85	73	86	2.4	Drayden Van Dyke

14 Veracious THIN DATA

3F 119 lbs L P

18.3%

MODEL %

9-2

MODEL FAIR

+4.0

EDGE vs ML

6/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig89 0 vs par

Needs +2~31% run that

Class85.2 +2.9 vs race +4.1 gap

MC12.7% fair 7-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.3

Faced81.6 -3.6 vs today

Pace EP85.1 best 102.2

Pace LP81.3 best 93.7

Energy0.52

Connections

JockManuel Francoκ 0.21was Axel Concepcion · +0.8

TrnCherie DeVauxκ 0.66

J×T14 · 0% win · 29% ITM

Angles

Cherie DeVaux: off layoff (60d+) 17% -24% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	3	1	0%	88.5
2026	2	1	0%	87.3
2025	1	0	0%	88.5
CNL	0	0	—	—
Turf	3	1	0%	88.5
Sprint	3	1	0%	88.5
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-30 CD 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 40 07-21 CD 4 Furlongs :49.00 B 52 07-14 CD Four Furlongs 47.60 b 67 07-07 CD Four Furlongs 46.60 b 85 06-20 CD 4 Furlongs :48.20 B 63 05-26 CD 4 Furlongs :48.20 B 66

SIRECode Of Honor 84 88%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-02 103d	IND	5.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	82	4	12	2.0	F	102	82	94	85	85	85	2.7	Axel Concepcion
2026-02-19 62d	FG	5.5f	turf	Firm	Mdn	81	2	11	2.8	F	86	81	62	87	90	85	2.3	Jose Ortiz
2025-12-19	FG	5.5f	turf	Firm	Mdn	81	4	9	0.8	F	83	84	92	88	87	81	2.7	Jose Ortiz

7 Vinalia

4F 124 lbs L EP

5.9%

MODEL %

15-1

MODEL FAIR

-12.3

EDGE vs ML

9/2

M/L

Form

Proj Fig84 -5 vs par

Needs +10~1% run that

Class85.2 +2.9 vs race -0.7 gap

MC9.2% fair 10-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.36

Faced85.0 -0.2 vs today

Pace EP81.3 best 89.5

Pace LP84.7 best 98.6

Energy0.53

Connections

JockJeiron Barbosaκ 0.11

TrnH. Motionκ 0.55

J×T5 · 40% win · 80% ITM

Angles

H. Motion: 2nd off layoff 15% -18% 2nd off layoff 13% -27% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30%

Record

	Sts	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	9	2	1	0%	88.2
2026	2	1	0	0%	81.8
2025	7	1	1	0%	88.2
CNL	0	0	0	—	—
Turf	8	2	1	0%	88.2
Sprint	8	2	0	0%	88.2
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

SIREHavana Grey (Gb) 88 96%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-06-27 164d·3.7×	LRL	5.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	84	2	7	2.5	S	90	83	82	82	75	85	1.6	Jeiron Barbosa
2026-01-14 82d	TP	6.0f	synthetic	Fast	MSW	85	8	8	18.2	S	88	88	88	71	54	86	4.58	Adam Beschizza
2025-10-24 33d	BAQ	6.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	87	6	9	6.8		88	87	99	83	84	86	9.07	Kendrick Carmouche
2025-09-21 44d	LRL	8.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	83	3	7	3.2	F	89	96	89	84	87	86	4.1	Jorge Ruiz
2025-08-08 61d	DMR	5.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	86	7	8	6.5	S	56	82	81	81	72	86	3.1	Umberto Rispoli
2025-06-08 21d	SA	6.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	85	10	10	11.2		65	70	69	76	67	89	1.9	Armando Ayuso
2025-05-18 29d	SA	6.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	86	2	11	0.2		85	82	84	88	87	88	5.3	Umberto Rispoli
2025-04-19 35d	SA	6.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	87	6	9	3.2	F	96	94	96	82	74	89	3.5	Antonio Fresu
2025-03-15	SA	6.0f	turf	Good	MSW	85	4	12	2.0	F	75	93	102	81	67	85	7.5	Antonio Fresu

8 On My Time

3F 119 lbs L P

5.2%

MODEL %

20-1

MODEL FAIR

-3.9

EDGE vs ML

10/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig87 -2 vs par

Needs +7~4% run that

Class86.1 +3.8 vs race +0.7 gap

MC8.4% fair 10-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.27

Faced85.9 +0.7 vs today

Pace EP83.8 best 107.8

Pace LP85.4 best 96.0

Energy0.51

Connections

JockNik Juarezκ 0.11was Martin Chuan · -0.1

TrnMark Casseκ 0.47

Angles

Mark Casse: off layoff (60d+) 15% -22% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26%

Record

	Sts	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	6	1	0%	87.0
2026	2	0	0%	84.8
2025	4	1	0%	87.0
CNL	0	0	—	—
Turf	6	1	0%	87.0
Sprint	3	1	0%	87.0
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-26 CNL 3 Furlongs :36.20 B 49 07-19 CNL 4 Furlongs :48.20 B 68 07-10 CNL 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 52 06-27 CAA 4 Furlongs :50.40 B ★06-20 CAA 4 Furlongs :48.20 B 04-29 PMM 4 Furlongs :49.15 B 53

SIRENot This Time 86 94%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-05-09 27d	GP	7.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	86	8	10	4.5	S	80	86	90	83	83	86	8.8	Martin Chuan
2026-04-12 181d·6.0×	GP	8.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	88	5	12	4.8	F	nan	nan	96	85	88	84	48.4	Diego Herrera
2025-10-13 30d	WO	8.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	86	5	6	7.5		nan	nan	88	77	68	86	14.8	Fraser Aebly
2025-09-13 28d	WO	8.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	82	11	11	7.0		75	83	86	83	75	88	3.65	Dylan Davis
2025-08-16 50d	WO	6.5f	turf	Firm	Stk	87	4	8	6.0	F	108	92	83	87	82	90	7.8	Sahin Civaci
2025-06-27	GP	7.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	85	3	8	2.8	F	66	83	83	84	83	86	24.4	Luca Panici

11 Poverty With Aview

4F 124 lbs L P

3.8%

MODEL %

25-1

MODEL FAIR

-7.3

EDGE vs ML

8/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig90 +1 vs par

Needs +4~14% run that

Class85.2 +2.9 vs race +4.5 gap

MC20.3% fair 4-1

ConfTIGHT σα 0.28

Faced83.0 -2.2 vs today

Pace EP81.3 best 90.6

Pace LP86.4 best 107.4

Energy0.53

Connections

JockSamuel Marinκ 0.22was Joshua Radosevich · +3.0

TrnJoe Lejzerowiczκ 0.3

Angles

Class dropper (purse −30%) 17% -23% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26%

Record

	Sts	2nd	3rd	Win%	Fig
Life	17	6	3	0%	88.3
2026	3	2	0	0%	86.8
2025	10	4	1	0%	88.3
CNL	0	0	0	—	—
Turf	12	5	1	0%	86.8
Sprint	5	2	1	0%	86.8
Wet	0	0	0	—	—

WORKS ★07-25 CNL 3 Furlongs :35.80 B 48 07-18 CNL 4 Furlongs :49.80 B 46

SIREInstilled Regard 87 95%ile

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-04-17 34d	KEE	5.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	87	7	11	3.2	F	68	nan	84	84	80	84	31.06	Joshua Radosevich
2026-03-14 41d	HOU	5.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	81	2	7	0.5	F	91	95	93	85	87	83	1.9	Rene Diaz
2026-02-01 35d	HOU	5.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	80	2	8	1.8		84	nan	81	87	83	83	1.9	Stewart Elliott
2025-12-28 25d	GP	8.5f	turf	Firm	Mdn	84	6	8	9.0	F	89	91	107	83	86	83	8.8	Miguel Vasquez
2025-12-03 31d	TAM	8.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	83	6	8	12.8	F	79	103	nan	86	82	83	11.8	Daniel Centeno
2025-11-02 27d	CD	9.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	86	4	10	14.0	F	85	nan	93	85	86	84	64.58	Sophie Doyle
2025-10-06 21d	IND	8.5f	turf	Firm	MSW	82	2	12	2.0	F	78	nan	86	85	80	83	9.4	Sophie Doyle
2025-09-15 16d	IND	8.318181818181818f	dirt	Fast	MSW	82	3	12	6.8		103	98	56	88	92	84	8.6	Sophie Doyle
2025-08-30 23d	KD	8.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	86	5	11	11.5	F	86	88	79	85	86	84	50.03	Sophie Doyle
2025-08-07	HAW	8.0f	turf	Firm	MSW	82	2	9	4.5	F	82	84	96	83	85	84	1.8	Sophie Doyle

6 Role's Mischief THIN DATA

3F 112 lbs L C

0.9%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-3.9

EDGE vs ML

20/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig74 -15 vs par

Needs +18~<1% run that

Class76.6 -5.7 vs race -2.7 gap

MC0.6% fair 99-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.49

Faced78.0 -7.2 vs today

Pace EP81.9 best 93.7

Pace LP84.6 best 93.3

Energy0.50

≠ Cross-surface α

Connections

JockLuis Fuenmayorκ 0.05was Gustavo Larrosa · +0.7

TrnDiana McClureκ -0.71

Angles

First-time turf 10% -26% Class riser (purse +40%) 9% -30% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26% Diana McClure: first-time turf 0% -100%

Record

	Sts	Win%	Fig
Life	2	0%	76.8
2026	2	0%	76.8
2025	0	—	—
CNL	0	—	—
Turf	0	—	—
Sprint	2	0%	76.8
Wet	0	—	—

SIREJimmy Creed 83 77%ile turf 15%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-02 35d	CT	6.5f	dirt	Fast	MSW	80	5	6	4.0		76	98	93	77	71	69	51.3	Gustavo Larrosa
2026-05-28	CT	4.5f	dirt	Fast	Mdn Clm	76	10	10	18.2		94	65	90	66	40	77	12.0	Gustavo Larrosa

13 Mischievous Twins

4F 124 lbs L S

0.6%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-8.5

EDGE vs ML

10/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig84 -5 vs par

Needs +14~<1% run that

Class80.7 -1.6 vs race +3.1 gap

MC4.5% fair 20-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.33

Faced83.6 -1.6 vs today

Pace EP84.8 best 100.7

Pace LP87.9 best 110.1

Energy0.56

≠ Cross-surface α

Connections

JockSamuel Marinκ 0.22was Yan Rodriguez · +1.9

TrnJamie Nessκ 0.36was Robert Reid, Jr. · +0.1

J×T9 · 44% win · 100% ITM

Angles

Jamie Ness: first-time turf 20% -20% Jamie Ness: off layoff (60d+) 19% -40% 1st off layoff (60d+) 13% -26% First-time turf 10% -26% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26%

Record

	Sts	2nd	Win%	Fig
Life	6	1	0%	79.4
2026	0	0	—	—
2025	4	1	0%	79.4
CNL	0	0	—	—
Turf	0	0	—	—
Sprint	6	1	0%	79.4
Wet	0	0	—	—

WORKS 07-22 PRX 5 Furlongs 1:01.02 B G 72 07-15 DEL 5 Furlongs 1:02.00 B 74 07-09 DEL 4 Furlongs :49.20 B 61 07-02 DEL 4 Furlongs :49.40 B 55

SIRENyquist 86 93%ile turf 16%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2025-12-10 51d	PRX	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	84	5	10	10.2	F	101	79	72	75	70	80	13.2	Yan Rodriguez
2025-10-20 49d	PRX	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	84	2	8	4.2		82	84	99	79	80	78	58.8	Yan Rodriguez
2025-09-01 39d	PRX	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	82	5	5	15.5	F	90	83	85	71	66	78	13.4	Dexter Haddock
2025-07-24 267d·5.4×	PRX	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	84	6	7	31.5	F	90	92	96	68	50	79	24.9	Abner Adorno
2024-10-30 39d	PRX	6.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	84	8	9	13.8		76	97	110	75	59	80	27.4	Christopher Elliott
2024-09-21	PRX	7.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	84	10	10	26.8		92	93	106	76	64	88	5.1	Jose Ortiz

9 Spritzn' Around

3F 119 lbs L

0.4%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-19.6

EDGE vs ML

4/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig86 -3 vs par

MC7.3% fair 12-1

ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285

⚠ No history — ML-anchored

Connections

JockPaco Lopezκ 0.23

TrnJorge Duarte, Jr.κ 0.4

J×T35 · 34% win · 54% ITM

Angles

Paco Lopez / Jorge Duarte, Jr. 30% -15% Jorge Duarte, Jr.: debut 15% -6% Debut 11% -25%

Record

	Win%	Fig
Life	—	—
2026	—	—
2025	—	—
CNL	—	—
Turf	—	—
Sprint	—	—
Wet	—	—

WORKS 07-25 CNL 4 Furlongs :48.80 B G 53 ★07-17 CNL 4 Furlongs :50.00 B 57 ★07-09 CNL 4 Furlongs :47.40 B 72 07-01 CNL 4 Furlongs :47.40 B 70

SIREGun Runner 89 97%ile 1st-out 21% (337) turf 11%

No prior races in database

5 Tiz My Standards THIN DATA

3F 114 lbs L

0.4%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-4.4

EDGE vs ML

20/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig78 -11 vs par

Needs +10~3% run that

Class75.5 -6.8 vs race +2.4 gap

MC1.5% fair 50-1

ConfNORMAL σα 0.41

Faced84.9 -0.3 vs today

≠ Cross-surface α

Connections

JockJorge Vargas, Jr.κ 0.02was Ubardo Casique · +0.0

TrnGary Williams, Jr.κ -0.37

Angles

2nd career start 13% -28% First-time turf 10% -26% Dirt-to-turf 9% -26%

Record

	Sts	Win%	Fig
Life	1	0%	79.3
2026	1	0%	79.3
2025	0	—	—
CNL	1	0%	79.3
Turf	0	—	—
Sprint	0	—	—
Wet	0	—	—

WORKS 06-24 CNL 3 Furlongs :37.40 B 41 06-20 CNL 4 Furlongs :49.00 B G 56

SIREBy My Standards 84 84%ile turf 9%

DATE	TRK	DIST	SURF	COND	TYPE	STR	POS	FLD	BL	PC	EP	MP	LP	GIBBS	PAR	CLS	ODDS	JOCKEY
2026-07-22	CNL	8.0f	dirt	Fast	MSW	85	5	6	21.8		—	—	—	79	73	84	28.5	Ubardo Casique

2 Ruthie Bar

3F 119 lbs L

0.3%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-4.5

EDGE vs ML

20/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig82 -7 vs par

MC3.5% fair 30-1

ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285

⚠ No history — ML-anchored

Connections

JockKevin Gomezκ 0.13

TrnMadison Meyersκ 0.1

J×T22 · 5% win · 36% ITM

Angles

Debut 11% -25% Madison Meyers: debut 10% +4% Kevin Gomez / Madison Meyers 6% -6%

Record

	Win%	Fig
Life	—	—
2026	—	—
2025	—	—
CNL	—	—
Turf	—	—
Sprint	—	—
Wet	—	—

WORKS 07-09 FAI Four Furlongs 49.60 b 58 06-06 TTC 4 Furlongs :51.20 B 38 05-30 TTC 4 Furlongs :52.00 B 26 05-20 TTC 4 Furlongs :52.00 B 37 05-09 TTC 4 Furlongs :51.20 B 37 05-02 TTC 4 Furlongs :51.40 B 39

SIRECandy Ride (Arg) 85 91%ile 1st-out 16% (447) turf 15%

No prior races in database

4 Now Or Nevermore

3F 119 lbs

0.3%

MODEL %

99-1

MODEL FAIR

-6.0

EDGE vs ML

15/1

M/L

Form

Proj Fig83 -6 vs par

MC2.5% fair 30-1

ConfWIDE σα 0.5897402119680285

⚠ No history — ML-anchored

Connections

JockIsmerio Villalobosκ 0.16

TrnChris Banksκ 0.12

Angles

Debut 11% -25%

Record

	Win%	Fig
Life	—	—
2026	—	—
2025	—	—
CNL	—	—
Turf	—	—
Sprint	—	—
Wet	—	—

WORKS 07-17 HPT Five Furlongs 1:03.03 b 49 07-11 HPT Five Furlongs 1:03.33 bg 57

SIREHonest Mischief 85 90%ile 1st-out 20% (49) turf 20%

No prior races in database